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2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Sept is going to torch the PNW. That seems almost certain at this point. Maybe less so after the 15th-20th but for sure up until then. Currently sitting at the average high in late July as of this very moment, and continuing to warm.

Oct will be around normal and Nov will be chilly, Dec will concur. Just my gut.

What about Precipitation and storms compared to normal

Know thyself and you shall know the Gods!!!!

All things are possible, who you are is limited by who you think you are!!!!

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Just now, ChrisAmunRA said:

What about Precipitation and storms compared to normal

Given -ENSO I'll say whet and stormy but it's been a weird one this year so it could go any way.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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Man I hope the OFA scores a coup.

I’ve never seen them forecast a -7°F monthly departure here before. Talk about bullish. 😵

6C95BC7D-46AF-4B67-A975-DDF62AFB188D.jpeg

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m not Jim. 😉

I’ll be fine as long as I’m not torching along with you.

stop talking!!!! you're making it worse!!!

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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OFA looks like something you’d expect in a strong niño. Really betting against ENSO, it seems.

Fittingly, January is the mini spring month again.

255C44E5-5ECE-4969-BDD8-B36CE62BE721.jpegDAED8C0C-6BE2-4E6B-8ACF-81EB48B1CB0C.jpeg

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

OFA looks like something you’d expect in a strong niño. Really betting against ENSO, it seems.

255C44E5-5ECE-4969-BDD8-B36CE62BE721.jpegDAED8C0C-6BE2-4E6B-8ACF-81EB48B1CB0C.jpeg

You're giving them far too much credit, I don't think they bet against anything. Doubt half their employees even know what the ENSO index is. They have their own ridiculous, archaic methods that fall in the same line as homeopathy or astrology. Nothing remotely related to meteorology.

Farmers Almanac almost always fails. And when they do succeed, it's because of their comically large error margins of 1-2 weeks. No shit you'll see anomalous airmasses at some point during that timespan.

/rant over

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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Just now, Meatyorologist said:

You're giving them far too much credit, I don't think they bet against anything. Doubt half their employees even know what the ENSO index is. They have their own ridiculous, archaic methods that fall in the same line as homeopathy or astrology. Nothing remotely related to meteorology.

Farmers Almanac almost always fails. And when they do succeed, it's because of their comically large error margins of 1-2 weeks. No shit you'll see anomalous airmasses at some point during that timespan.

/rant over

You might’ve single handedly doomed the PNW winter with this post. Hope you have armed security. 😬 

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  • Longtimer

My winter forecast is coming together... I'm excited. Wet and active is the theme. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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12 minutes ago, JBolin said:

HEY, Screw You P.H.I.L!

If we suffer, YOU SUFFER

I’ve already been suffering. Weather hasn’t changed here at all, everything still in midsummer form. As green and buggy as ever. Windows are still dripping with condensation every day.

At least the next 5-6 days should be nice. But I doubt it’ll last.

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

My winter forecast is coming together... I'm excited. Wet and active is the theme. 

This will be the winter Tim finally throws in the towel and moves to Death Valley.

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Just now, Phil said:

This will be the winter Tim finally throws in the towel and moves to Death Valley.

I don't have a firm analog list, and analogs are only a part of my secret formula, but I'm liking 71-72 and 99-00'. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I don't have a firm analog list, and analogs are only a part of my secret formula, but I'm liking 71-72 and 99-00'. 

I’m seriously looking at 2010/11. Similarly quiet WPAC typhoon season and rapidly descending +QBO/strong niña.

Tonga is the big wild card. Am increasingly concerned it will throw a giant wrench into things. Stratosphere is not behaving normally at all right now.

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7 minutes ago, Phil said:

This will be the winter Tim finally throws in the towel and moves to Death Valley.

Winter never bothers me much.   And we travel.   I mostly get annoyed when the warm season gets messed up.   

Naples FL and Maui will be our extended home away from home this winter.    But we will be home for Christmas this year... unless a ski trip comes up.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer
3 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m seriously looking at 2010/11. Similarly quiet WPAC typhoon season and rapidly descending +QBO/strong niña.

Tonga is the big wild card. Am increasingly concerned it will throw a giant wrench into things. Stratosphere is not behaving normally at all right now.

As stated before. I don't think Tonga has much to do with anything. If things don't turn out to our liking it will be a convenient excuse. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer
8 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m seriously looking at 2010/11. Similarly quiet WPAC typhoon season and rapidly descending +QBO/strong niña.

Tonga is the big wild card. Am increasingly concerned it will throw a giant wrench into things. Stratosphere is not behaving normally at all right now.

We may have a waning Nina, seems to ME we are losing momentum.

  • Weenie 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Looks like the 18Z GFS is going to go crazy with troughing after day 10.    My guess is that it won't look nearly as troughy when that period gets within 7 days.   

Just last Wednesday... the GFS runs showed deep troughing and occasional rain starting today and lasting through this coming weekend.

gfs_z500a_namer_29.png

gfs_z500a_namer_47.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, FroYoBro said:

Tim had posted 30 comments in this thread so far today. 

I took the day off to go to Bellingham and then to Mariners game... but my son volunteered to drive up there and pick up his grandma and I am meeting them in Seattle for the game.    Good kid.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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92 at PDX so far, the 28th of the year. This weekend we'll probably tie 2015 (29) and maybe get to 30. 2018 will still be first with 31 days though.

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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And tack on another one!! 90F burger achieved!!

How Can Dalvin Cook Follow Up A Career Year? - Zone Coverage

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 35F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 17F (Feb 23, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Apr 17, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 5 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 10.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 30.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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  • Longtimer
15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I took the day off to go to Bellingham and then to Mariners game... but my son volunteered to drive up there and pick up his grandma and I am meeting them in Seattle for the game.    Good kid.  

m.A.A.d city. 

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18z GFS has some lows in the 30s in the Hood Canal area on the 17th and 20th.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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79 / 47 here today.  Classic September day.

I'm going to be interested to see what kind of mins we can come up with later in the week before the strong offshore flow kicks in.

As I've said....other than the two warm days coming up it looks like nothing to complain about over the next two weeks.  A good mix being shown on the models.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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24 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

18z GFS has some lows in the 30s in the Hood Canal area on the 17th and 20th.

Noice!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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32 minutes ago, PDXWISCO said:

Fire weather watch already up for PDX Friday into Saturday...gonna be a dry east wind...please don't repeat 2020! 

2020 was kind of a perfect storm for major fires.  This time we won't have the ridiculous duration of dry east winds like we had that time and we won't have thousands of people camping on a holiday weekend.

That having been said all it takes is one careless act or even a freak thing like sparks from a car to trigger a disaster.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

79 / 47 here today.  Classic September day.

I'm going to be interested to see what kind of mins we can come up with later in the week before the strong offshore flow kicks in.

As I've said....other than the two warm days coming up it looks like nothing to complain about over the next two weeks.  A good mix being shown on the models.

Pretty spectacular as long as we can avoid smoke.  12Z ECMWF showed 10 straight sunny days ahead.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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24 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

79 / 47 here today.  Classic September day.

I'm going to be interested to see what kind of mins we can come up with later in the week before the strong offshore flow kicks in.

As I've said....other than the two warm days coming up it looks like nothing to complain about over the next two weeks.  A good mix being shown on the models.

ECMWF had 74 today. 

GFS had 80. 

Actual high at SEA was 80.

No comments on GFS temp output today?

 

 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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22 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF had 74 today. 

GFS had 80. 

Actual high at SEA was 80.

No comments on GFS temp output today?

 

 

75° BFI

Know thyself and you shall know the Gods!!!!

All things are possible, who you are is limited by who you think you are!!!!

☥𓂀

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27 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF had 74 today. 

GFS had 80. 

Actual high at SEA was 80.

No comments on GFS temp output today?

 

 

Tiny minds simp for inferior models.

The ECMWF will always be superior to the GFS. And palm trees will never grow in North Bend. The sooner you accept that the happier a life you will live.

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11 minutes ago, Phil said:

Tiny minds simp for inferior models.

The ECMWF will always be superior to the GFS. And palm trees will never grow in North Bend. The sooner you accept that the happier a life you will live.

mate that is so edgy...

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

So Phil’s all in for a PNW torch this winter?

Intriguing….

I don’t have a f***ing clue what will happen this winter. Not even going to try right now.

Unprecedented stratosphere in a 3rd year niña with fastest boreal summer +QBO downwell ever recorded. Good luck with that.

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