PNW September 2022 Wx Obs/Disc

[TT-SEA]

The control run at day 12 shows the same pattern repeating with a deep trough over Alaska.    As Kayla mentioned... this has been a tough nut to crack.    

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

The control run at day 12 shows the same pattern repeating with a deep trough over Alaska.    As Kayla mentioned... this has been a tough nut to crack.    

 

East Coast of Canada gets some goodies. 

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

We will have the +QBO going for us too.

Was 2008-09 the last second or third year Nina with +QBO?

EDIT: Nevermind, I see that it was and you pointed it out above. 

[Doinko]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Very possible.  +QBO during multi year Nina winters have a good history of that.  Although 1971-72 was a much bigger winter for WA than OR.

I'm hoping for a winter that's good for the Willamette Valley as well. 2013/2014 was quite good here as well, I'm looking at data from a weather station near me and we dropped to 10 in the December arctic blast and then we had a 22/18 day in February where the temp of 18 was at 6pm with near blizzard level winds! That might've been a bit frustrating in the Puget Sound though.

[kokaneekidz]

2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

UKMO looks like a carbon repeat of last winter, if not with the storm track displaced even further north. Like 2020-21 with more of a -ENSO flavor

Kicking Horse Ski Resort in Golden,BC looks to get plastered if those projections pan out.

[TacomaWx]

Satellite imagery looks more clear than it has in the last week. 70 here under full sunshine. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Severe clear on the final day of the Oregon State Fair. 

[Snownerd3000]

Came here to ask with winter projections coming out, what if any you give credence to? Looks like there is already some good convo on the winter. Love that. 

[TT-SEA]

Still feels like summer here on Lake Sammamish.    Air is warm and water is warm with blazing sun and very little wind.  

[Cloud]

Goldilocks weather today for the holiday. Can't really ask for a better day today. 

[Tyler Mode]

Today has been about perfect.  Upper 40s this morning, 80 this afternoon, crystal clear blue skies, nice breeze.  I'd take this over the 90s coming again.

[MossMan]

Perfect! 

[TT-SEA]

Raining down sunshine.   

It does not rain on 210 days a year on average in Seattle.   Glad one of those 210 dry days was on a holiday! 

[snow_wizard]

Very comfortable nice day.  74/53 here.  Looking for upper 40s tonight.

[snow_wizard]

44 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Perfect! 

I thought you liked absurd heat.

[snow_wizard]

Really hard to complain about the 18z GFS other than the 4 to 6 day period.

[Requiem]

I think it was @Deweydogwho mentioned it earlier but it is pretty interesting how models have intensified the offshore flow for this upcoming weekend. Obviously still has time to change but the ensembles (particularly the EPS) seem to be latching onto a fairly strong (for the early fall) event. 

[Doinko]

8 minutes ago, Requiem said:

I think it was @Deweydogwho mentioned it earlier but it is pretty interesting how models have intensified the offshore flow for this upcoming weekend. Obviously still has time to change but the ensembles (particularly the EPS) seem to be latching onto a fairly strong (for the early fall) event. 

Is the GEFS not as strong with offshore flow? I was hoping we could avoid something like this before a significant rain event but maybe we'll get lucky and not get too many fire starts.

[TacomaWx]

73/57 today. 

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Is the GEFS not as strong with offshore flow? I was hoping we could avoid something like this before a significant rain event but maybe we'll get lucky and not get too many fire starts.

It's mostly a matter of luck more than anything.  People just need to be very careful during the critical period.  Fire danger has officially been extreme in Central WA (and presumably other areas) for a few weeks now so the very low dps associated with the clipper will undoubtedly create serious potential.

I was looking at my records for 2020 and rest assured this will be nothing like that.  I had strong east winds for 3 days with that.

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It's mostly a matter of luck more than anything.  People just need to be very careful during the critical period.  Fire danger has officially been extreme in Central WA (and presumably other areas) for a few weeks now so the very low dps associated with the clipper will undoubtedly create serious potential.

I was looking at my records for 2020 and rest assured this will be nothing like that.  I had strong east winds for 3 days with that.

Will probably be a long time before something like the Labor Day storm happens again. Seems like it’s a once in a couple decades event. 

[ChrisEl Elyon]

70-73° in the City of Seattle today.

72° here in Belltown Neighborhood 

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I thought you liked absurd heat.

When does Randy ever have absurd heat?   When it's 105 degrees in Portland it's like 80 at his house.    And he hated Minnesota heat and humidity when he was there in the summer years ago.   

[TT-SEA]

77 in North Bend and in Issaquah on Lake Sammamish today.   Pretty darn nice.

[MossMan]

Well that’s a wrap for summer lake fun 2022. We might be able to make it over one more time over the next couple of weeks before I pull the toys out but with school, soccer, swim classes, horse riding classes, homework, dog agility competitions, projects around the house before fall weather sets in just to name a few…Yeah it’s over. 

74/49 on the day.

Currently 67. 

[RentonHill]

Golden hour. Golden valley. Golden colored dog. Golden boy, stay pony!

[Cloud]

58 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

When does Randy ever have absurd heat?   When it's 105 degrees in Portland it's like 80 at his house.    And he hated Minnesota heat and humidity when he was there in the summer years ago.   

Randy can’t answer for himself or……..?

[TT-SEA]

35 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Randy can’t answer for himself or……..?

He can.   We all know its never that hot at his house which is why he likes hot patterns.   And he has stellar AC!   Everyone likes to pretend that Randy and I want be to set on fire or we aren't happy.   But that is just silly.   Our summer preferences are like the vast majority of the population.  It's just unusual in this small group where everyone wants cold troughing all summer. 

[Cloud]

Sacramento and NorCal set all kinds of records today and even challenged the all-time record. Didn’t quite hit the 120s stuff the Euro was showing at one point but it’s D**n hot down there. 

 

 

[TT-SEA]

Mariners were sooo close to extending their winning streak.

I am going up to Bellingham tomorrow and bringing my mom back down to the game.   She has become a die hard Mariners fan and she watches every game.   I have to bring her to a game in person during this pennant race.   I got seats right behind Mariners dugout on StubHub.    Sure hope they win... or at least its an exciting game.    

[MossMan]

47 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Randy can’t answer for himself or……..?

I was just slow to respond, but yeah what Tim said! 

[Cloud]

This was previously discussed when the Euro showed it about a week or so out but the downslope/offshore stuff for NorCal today was on point. 20-22mph gusts for most of the day trapping heat at the valley. That can’t feel good, must be like opening an oven with the heat blasting at you with the winds. 

[Cloud]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I was just slow to respond, but yeah what Tim said! 

Find a room you two!  

[Doinko]

15 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Sacramento and NorCal set all kinds of records today and even challenged the all-time record. Didn’t quite hit the 120s stuff the Euro was showing at one point but it’s D**n hot down there. 

 

 

Sacramento also broke the monthly record of 109 set in 2020. Maybe they'll tie the all time record tomorrow? Weather.com is showing 115 there tomorrow. 

[Doinko]

2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

It's mostly a matter of luck more than anything.  People just need to be very careful during the critical period.  Fire danger has officially been extreme in Central WA (and presumably other areas) for a few weeks now so the very low dps associated with the clipper will undoubtedly create serious potential.

I was looking at my records for 2020 and rest assured this will be nothing like that.  I had strong east winds for 3 days with that.

Yeah thankfully that isn't happening but the Euro is still forecasting gusts ~35 mph here.

[Cloud]

7 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Sacramento also broke the monthly record of 109 set in 2020. Maybe they'll tie the all time record tomorrow? Weather.com is showing 115 there tomorrow. 

18z Euro and GFS + the NAM meso shows that the all-time high will get crush tomorrow. 117-119 range. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Yeah thankfully that isn't happening but the Euro is still forecasting gusts ~35 mph here.

Problem with the “Labor Day” wind was the whole downed power line aspect. 

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

18z Euro and GFS + the NAM meso shows that the all-time high will get crushed tomorrow. 117-119 range. 

Wow... those temps are crazy.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Problem with the “Labor Day” wind was the whole downed power line aspect. 

That... and pushing fires westward at a mind-boggling pace for west side forests.  

[Anti Marine Layer]

My dog just turned off the TV (inadvertently).

The heat wave down here is keeping people stuck inside like the original COVID wave.