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  • Longtimer
14 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Don’t have the best cell service at the moment but it looks like cedar creek is taking off this evening. Hopefully it’s not too smoky at Paulina peak and bend tomorrow. 

I could see the pyrocumulus from south Salem. 

  • Sick 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Random post. I’ve been whining a lot over recent summers, but after doing some digging, I think I might’ve simply lost touch with how bad things can really get. Decided to look at verified records of those 2010-12 summers and, my god, 2022 was a literal cakewalk compared to that.

It was 99°F by 945AM on 7/7/12. Countless days breaching 90°F between 830-930AM, several reaching 90°F even before 8AM. Dews reaching 88°F. I basically blocked all of that trauma out of my mind.

How I survived that in the face of multiple prolonged power outages is beyond me. I had basically convinced myself that I had grown acclimated to heat but in reality it hasn’t been all that hot recently.

Pretty sure I’m going to get banned if/when that type of pattern returns. Probably explains why I was such a nutcase back then. :lol: 

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42 minutes ago, Phil said:

Tiny minds simp for inferior models.

The ECMWF will always be superior to the GFS. And palm trees will never grow in North Bend. The sooner you accept that the happier a life you will live.

Sick burn dude, here's you're "free" six pack of Zima.

Screenshot_20220906-181225_Google.jpg

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8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

78/48 on the day. 
Currently the same inside and out! 
 

ACF309DD-70DB-4B6A-87D7-4B2FB1C3E2BD.jpeg

I forgot what 48°F feels like. 😭 

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50 minutes ago, Phil said:

Tiny minds simp for inferior models.

The ECMWF will always be superior to the GFS. And palm trees will never grow in North Bend. The sooner you accept that the happier a life you will live.

ECMWF is definitely the superior model.   No doubt about it.   I just like to give Jim crap for being outaged when it's off and the silent on all days it does better.   And this week is going to be GFS friendly.  

And palm trees do grow in North Bend and very well.   I can post some pics tomorrow if you want.  👍

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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That hurricane tracking into the SW US might the marker for a more substantial pattern change to open boreal autumn.

That’s my hunch. We’ll see if I’m right.

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  • Longtimer
3 minutes ago, Phil said:

That hurricane tracking into the SW US might the marker for a more substantial pattern change to open boreal autumn.

That’s my hunch. We’ll see if I’m right.

The second half of September will be cooler than the first. 

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF is definitely the superior model.   No doubt about it.   I just like to give Jim crap for being outaged when it's off and the silent on all days it does better.   And this week is going to be GFS friendly.  

And palm trees do grow in North Bend and very well.   I can post some pics tomorrow if you want.  👍

Jim is right about its warm/dry 2m bias, though. Doesn’t seem to handle BL moisture/evaporative processes well at all.

And if Palm Trees grew in North Bend you would have surrounded your house with them by now. 😉

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6 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF is pretty much sunny for the next 10 days... marine layer clouds barely make it to Seattle on a few mornings next week but it clears quickly.    

Jesus man. Take a break. You’ll be better off. You may break the the first time ever for most posts in a day in a row. Yes. It’s going to be warm. We get it. 

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40 minutes ago, T-Town said:

This doesn’t sound too promising. Stay safe out there. 
 

https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/8307/

It’s about 15 miles SW of where I’ll be camping. Will probably be some smoke at times but there should be some days it clears out too just gotta make the best of it. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-64

Coldest min-48

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Wet season rainfall-0.00”

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

Jim is right about its warm/dry 2m bias, though. Doesn’t seem to handle BL moisture/evaporative processes well at all.

And if Palm Trees grew in North Bend you would have surrounded your house with them by now. 😉

There are many plam trees in NB.  And I wouldn't want them in my yard.    

And I am well aware of the days where the GFS will struggle.   And there are many other days it's the best model.  Like today.

Drinking tonight?

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

GFS went with 83 at Olympia but they only reached 59.

POS model.

But I don't really care about OLM specifically for this, just wondering if Tim's focus on solely SEA in criticizing the Euro temp output is at all representative of other areas.

Guessing probably not!

A forum for the end of the world.

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  • Longtimer

Everyone in our area is extremely nervous about Friday and Saturday. We are all watering around our homes and outbuildings. 

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  • Storm 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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5 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Zima was ahead of its time. Now similar seltzer beverages are everywhere.

Never heard of Zima. But I loved Truly (Rose flavor) and would recommend that to others.

A lot of seltzers are not great. Most of the White Claw drinks are swill, but there may have been one flavor I liked on a hot day. 

  • Like 1

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Warm Season Stats

Thunders: 50
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 7/5, 7/6, 7/8, 7/12, 7/17, 7/18
7/21, 7/23, 7/27, 7/31, 8/1, 8/4, 8/5, 8/6, 8/7, 8/9
8/10, 8/11, 8/14, 8/21, 8/26, 8/29, 8/30, 9/3, 9/4, 9/6

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 4 / 3
Frequent Lightning: 5 (5/20), (6/13), (7/6), (7/21), 8/1, 
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13), ~55 (7/6)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Check out Medford's 107 and even K-Falls almost hit the century mark today!

Hottest September day since 2017 in southern Oregon, but if you guys are lucky, middle of that month did drop off in highs. This one may still be an above average month.

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Warm Season Stats

Thunders: 50
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 7/5, 7/6, 7/8, 7/12, 7/17, 7/18
7/21, 7/23, 7/27, 7/31, 8/1, 8/4, 8/5, 8/6, 8/7, 8/9
8/10, 8/11, 8/14, 8/21, 8/26, 8/29, 8/30, 9/3, 9/4, 9/6

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 4 / 3
Frequent Lightning: 5 (5/20), (6/13), (7/6), (7/21), 8/1, 
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13), ~55 (7/6)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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  • Longtimer

Was always more of a whiskey drinker myself. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

The second half of September will be cooler than the first. 

The biggest concern would be if the second half actually ran a cool departure, the former is a no brainer! 😜

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Warm Season Stats

Thunders: 50
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 7/5, 7/6, 7/8, 7/12, 7/17, 7/18
7/21, 7/23, 7/27, 7/31, 8/1, 8/4, 8/5, 8/6, 8/7, 8/9
8/10, 8/11, 8/14, 8/21, 8/26, 8/29, 8/30, 9/3, 9/4, 9/6

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 4 / 3
Frequent Lightning: 5 (5/20), (6/13), (7/6), (7/21), 8/1, 
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13), ~55 (7/6)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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  • Longtimer

One of my friends posted this from Redmond. 😳

C7556522-38AA-46A8-8A72-82DA60D37851.jpeg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer
7 minutes ago, kokaneekidz said:

Looks extra terrestrial 

Demonic isn’t it?

  • Storm 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

One of my friends posted this from Redmond. 😳

C7556522-38AA-46A8-8A72-82DA60D37851.jpeg

Kinda reminds me (a bit) of the KOMO reporter (Dave Crockett) trying to escape Mt. St. Helen's right after its eruption and the only light he could see was a fast closing bit of light to his east.

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Hot in Colorado as well..

305960172_448099874022700_696320147764643517_n.jpg

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Warm Season Stats

Thunders: 50
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 7/5, 7/6, 7/8, 7/12, 7/17, 7/18
7/21, 7/23, 7/27, 7/31, 8/1, 8/4, 8/5, 8/6, 8/7, 8/9
8/10, 8/11, 8/14, 8/21, 8/26, 8/29, 8/30, 9/3, 9/4, 9/6

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 4 / 3
Frequent Lightning: 5 (5/20), (6/13), (7/6), (7/21), 8/1, 
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13), ~55 (7/6)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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52 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Zima was ahead of its time. Now similar seltzer beverages are everywhere.

My son and I were at the store the other day, and he was trying to pick a beer for the potluck he was going to, we came across the White Claw section, and he laughed and said Bozeman was the biggest consumer for White Claw per capita when it came out (and went on to say how nasty it is).

 

I told him it was Zima back in my day, but pretty much the same "crowd" that drank it. 

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  • Longtimer

Currently 60 lovely degrees with the moon rising near Phil’s favorite tree. 
Such a deep blue evening sky, and the smoke smell is gone. Goodnight everyone. 

BAA0434A-B713-4DAD-8E1E-D99C17A66E88.jpeg

52147DEE-8E69-432C-8D02-CECE83B0B822.jpeg

  • Like 4

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Warm Season Stats

Thunders: 50
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 7/5, 7/6, 7/8, 7/12, 7/17, 7/18
7/21, 7/23, 7/27, 7/31, 8/1, 8/4, 8/5, 8/6, 8/7, 8/9
8/10, 8/11, 8/14, 8/21, 8/26, 8/29, 8/30, 9/3, 9/4, 9/6

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 4 / 3
Frequent Lightning: 5 (5/20), (6/13), (7/6), (7/21), 8/1, 
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13), ~55 (7/6)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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I’m wienering away here but I’m at a point now where I consider a day like to today HOT for this time of year. Our average is 74…. We hit 80. Me no likey!  we might as well just torch until December. 🌭

 

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1 hour ago, JBolin said:

Kinda reminds me (a bit) of the KOMO reporter (Dave Crockett) trying to escape Mt. St. Helen's right after its eruption and the only light he could see was a fast closing bit of light to his east.

I remember that footage…..going towards the only light

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  • Longtimer
2 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

Zima was ahead of its time. Now similar seltzer beverages are everywhere.

I enjoy the very occasional Moscow Mule or Greyhound in a can. 

4467E7CB-D684-4FA9-BF7C-6BBEDED3DA48.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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The GFS gets kind of fun late next week.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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8 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Nothing that Portland hadn’t already seen. Sacramento should easily be able to achieve 120’s if conditions are right.

It is pretty late though.  Much weaker sun than June and July.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

It is pretty late though.  Much weaker sun than June and July.

First, September in California is still a very warm month.

Second, my statement was general: it did not pertain only to September. It is more likely to happen in July or August than September.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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7 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

First, September in California is still a very warm month.

Second, my statement was general: it did not pertain only to September. It is more likely to happen in July or August than September.

I was just saying you can't really compare what happened in June last year to anything in September.  There was really no need to get defensive.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Noice GFS run!  I really like the 54 degree high on the 17th.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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