PNW September 2022 Wx Obs/Disc

[Chewbacca Defense]

Just stepped outside and very strong campfire smell, and hazy out.  My outdoor 2.5PM air quality sensor is the air quality drop over the past 45 minutes....kinda surprised to walk out to that.

 

This morning was an amazing crisp fall morning, got down to 47 overnight.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF... Friday morning through Saturday morning with peak wind gusts on second map. 

[SnowWillarrive]

1 hour ago, Omegaraptor said:

Right before landing at PDX.

Holy shitt, actual terrain! We really do take our mountains out west for granted. Chicago’s a wonderful city… but it’s VERY flat.

Although you’re not as close up flying over the Wyoming Tetons and Wind River Range is surreal. Gotta go there someday.

Nice view, although flying into SeaTac is one of the best views in the country imho. 

[LowerGarfield]

84 and sunny with some haze but not bad.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF barely shows any troughing one week from today. 

[Phishy Wx]

spent the labor day holiday (Thursday-Monday) in Denver.  It was F'in hot as balls, on Friday night the concert I was at was delayed by lightning and rain for 2 hours and we got soaked.  I expected it to get cold after the storm but it was fine and I was dry within a couple hours.  Sunday was hot and dry as balls.  so ready for summer to be OVER!

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF does not even show 850mb temps going below normal next week... the troughing to the south is just so weak.

 

 

[TT-SEA]

10-day precip total from 12Z ECMWF...

[MossMan]

Very interesting all of a sudden, the sky is deep blue however there is a definite smoke smell in the air. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is pretty much sunny for the next 10 days... marine layer clouds barely make it to Seattle on a few mornings next week but it clears quickly.    

[Chewbacca Defense]

19 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Very interesting all of a sudden, the sky is deep blue however there is a definite smoke smell in the air. 

It's a little hazy here, but crazy strong smoke smell.  I scanned FB and the Pulsepoint app, and it doesn't looks like there were any fires in the immediate area to justify how strong the smell is....

[Phil]

Week-2 EPS made a substantial improvement.

Run-to-run change in 850mb temps.

[TT-SEA]

11 minutes ago, Phil said:

Week-2 EPS made a substantial improvement.

Run-to-run change in 850mb temps.

Meh... its a meandering pattern but definitely not impressive with any troughing signal in the long range.  And the next 10 days has trended much warmer than it looked a few days ago.  Chasing carrot situation until something gets within 7 days.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Good lord.

[MossMan]

28 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

It's a little hazy here, but crazy strong smoke smell.  I scanned FB and the Pulsepoint app, and it doesn't looks like there were any fires in the immediate area to justify how strong the smell is....

Yeah it’s surprisingly strong! 

[TT-SEA]

Control run shows the troughing focused to the north and south but just leaves the PNW high and dry.   This is basically what the ECMWF is also showing.   

 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MossMan said:

Yeah it’s surprisingly strong! 

I would think it was a local source up there... but its really odd that you can smell it too.    Maybe just a coincidence and you both have people burning near you.   

[ChrisEl Elyon]

Watch a change late/end of the Month!!!

After the 20th 

[Cloud]

KSAC running 2F warmer than yesterday at this time with a 108. May not get 120 but it may just be very D**n close. 

[Omegaraptor]

Another thing is, Mark Nelsen in one of his road trip posts described the western PNW as a narrow strip of green lushness in the vast sea of brown that is the western US. Looking out the window on my flight he wasn’t exactly wrong, lol. Pretty much everything between the western third of Nebraska and The Dalles is dry.

[TT-SEA]

15 minutes ago, Cloud said:

KSAC running 2F warmer than yesterday at this time with a 108. May not get 120 but it may just be very D**n close. 

Thankfully very little smoke right now down there.  

[The Blob]

Took the kids to Cannon Beach this weekend. They had a blast. We got dumped on by heavy drizzle, I couldn't even be mad at that.

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, The Blob said:

Took the kids to Cannon Beach this weekend. They had a blast. We got dumped on by heavy drizzle, I couldn't even be mad at that.

I'd be disappointed if I hadn't been dumped on by heavy drizzle! Beautiful country there

[Chewbacca Defense]

24 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I would think it was a local source up there... but its really odd that you can smell it too.    Maybe just a coincidence and you both have people burning near you.   

As strong as the smell is, that was my first thought.

 

Just checked FB again and found this post from Randy Small.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Another thing is, Mark Nelsen in one of his road trip posts described the western PNW as a narrow strip of green lushness in the vast sea of brown that is the western US. Looking out the window on my flight he wasn’t exactly wrong, lol

This is very true. Once you get past Hood River you won't see green again until you get to Eastern Kansas if you are taking I-84/I-80/I70. 

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Another thing is, Mark Nelsen in one of his road trip posts described the western PNW as a narrow strip of green lushness in the vast sea of brown that is the western US. Looking out the window on my flight he wasn’t exactly wrong, lol

 

[TT-SEA]

14 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

As strong as the smell is, that was my first thought.

 

Just checked FB again and found this post from Randy Small.

Must be low level smoke coming from fires in North Cascades.   Although the main smoke plumes are moving off to the NE... there must be some coming westward at the surface with low level offshore flow today.

[Cloud]

16 minutes ago, The Blob said:

Took the kids to Cannon Beach this weekend. They had a blast. We got dumped on by heavy drizzle, I couldn't even be mad at that.

My absolute favorite getaway destination!

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

My absolute favorite getaway destination!

The entire OR coast is just spectacular.   

[Omegaraptor]

21 minutes ago, The Blob said:

Took the kids to Cannon Beach this weekend. They had a blast. We got dumped on by heavy drizzle, I couldn't even be mad at that.

Get on 101 south for about a dozen miles and go to Oswald West. You won’t regret it

[Cloud]

Very interesting stuff with the smoke and the smell of smoke today. Sat. imagery not showing much and plumes are blowing NE. If I had to guess, this must be low level stuff and probably from campfires from camping this past weekend. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Very interesting stuff with the smoke and the smell of smoke today. Sat. imagery not showing much and plumes are blowing NE. If I had to guess, this must be low level stuff and probably from campfires from camping this past weekend. 

We posted the same thing.  

[Cloud]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We posted the same thing.  

Probably the only thing that makes most sense right now. There is no burn ban in place right now besides a few selected  state parks so for most camp grounds, charcoal and wood burning are allowed. 

[Jbolin]

5 hours ago, MossMan said:

Meh…Could be better…

YES PLEASE, (the snow)

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just checking out the CFS monthlies. Not terrible. Basically fairly close to average for the next 9 months (Starting in October.). If that were to happen we would have to call it a huge WIN. 

November-March features above normal precipitation. October looks wet in Washington, and around average in Oregon. 

Temps are near average. Below is the DJF composite. A bit of a north south gradient, but nothing too exciting. 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Meh... its a meandering pattern but definitely not impressive with any troughing signal in the long range.  And the next 10 days has trended much warmer than it looked a few days ago.  Chasing carrot situation until something gets within 7 days.

It’s a solid step in the right direction, though.

Time to kill off summer once and for all.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, The Blob said:

Took the kids to Cannon Beach this weekend. They had a blast. We got dumped on by heavy drizzle, I couldn't even be mad at that.

Several of our forum members would have to be institutionalized if that happened to them. There is no greater evil on this planet than drizzle during the warm season. NONE.

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

It’s a solid step in the right direction, though.

Time to kill off summer once and for all.

These steps don't mean much right now... models have been consistently reverting back to persistence as the time approaches.     This has been happening for a couple weeks.   I am not sure why... maybe the models factor in climo more in the long range but persistence is still winning out.    It will change eventually but I would like to see a decent rain event get within 7 days to begin to believe it.   

 At this point... a warm and dry September seems likely.   Although the dry part could change fast if we get a big system before month end.

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

These steps don't mean much right now... models have been consistently reverting back to persistence as the time approaches.     This has been happening for a couple weeks.   I am not sure why... maybe the models factor in climo more in the long range but persistence is still winning out.    It will change eventually but I would like to see a decent rain event get within 7 days to begin to believe it.   

 At this point... a warm and dry September seems likely.   Although the dry part could change fast if we get a big system before month end.

Wouldn’t shock me if models took an abrupt turn towards +NPO/cool/wet soon with the -dAAMt stretch coming up. Lots of precedent there. We’ll see.

[Omegaraptor]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Wouldn’t shock me if models took an abrupt turn towards cool/wet soon with the -dAAMt stretch coming up. Lots of precedent there. We’ll see.

PHIL NO