PNW September 2022 Wx Obs/Disc

[Deweydog]

Last 90 of 2022 at PDX???

[Timmy Supercell]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Remarkable stats from the Atlantic this season.

1. Only the third time since 1950 there were no named storms in the month of August...1961, 1997 were the others.

2. First time since 1941 to have no named storms in the July 3 through August period.

1941 and 1997 were both big El Ninos.  Really strange.

Analogs don't always work, but 41-42 was the first of 3 straight solid winters in K-Falls. 45", following 69" in 42-43, and another 46" in 43-44. Sometimes a weak one happened back then too, so having multiple winters in a row like that was a treat no matter what time period you look at.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Analogs gone wild. 

[BLI snowman]

12 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Last 90 of 2022 at PDX???

October is pretty dew. Just had their latest 100+ since 1988, so might as well do the latest 90+ since then too.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

October is pretty dew. Just had their latest 100+ since 1988, so might as well do the latest 90+ since then too.

Indigenous People’s Day heat storm 2022!

[Timmy Supercell]

5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

October is pretty dew. Just had their latest 100+ since 1988, so might as well do the latest 90+ since then too.

2020 had the warmest start to an October since 1996 where I lived, with three consecutive ~85+ days. 

2015 was overall a warmer October though, so probably due for another one like that.

[BLI snowman]

10 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Indigenous People’s Day heat storm 2022!

Portland hit 116mph on October 12, 1962 and on October 12, 2022 it will hit 116 again.

[BLI snowman]

6 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

2020 had the warmest start to an October since 1996 where I lived, with three consecutive ~85+ days. 

2015 was overall a warmer October though, so probably due for another one like that.

Octobers 2014 and 2015 were both historically warm throughout the region, just lacking amplification sexy enough for a late season 90+.

[Timmy Supercell]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Octobers 2014 and 2015 were both historically warm throughout the region, just lacking amplification sexy enough for a late season 90+.

I like how 2014 kickstarted windstorm season, a decent start to the water year and managed a warm October at the same tme. KLMT picked up a lot of rain in 2014 and 2016.

[SnowWillarrive]

34 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I was just thinking maybe SEA being a bit north made it just possible for the inversion to hold on today.  At any rate we really lucked out coming in this cool.

Very pleasant in Puget Sound region today. Only 75 here. Feels much better today vs the last two days. 

[TacomaWx]

78/59 today. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

And that's another one! 90F-burger achieved!

[TT-SEA]

It really would be nice to get at least one significant rain event.    Fall color will not be impressive if it stays this dry through September.     At one point the ECMWF was showing a significant AR event starting tomorrow. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

40s to 90s at EUG today.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice day. Glad it is fall. 

[BLI snowman]

16 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

I like how 2014 kickstarted windstorm season, a decent start to the water year and managed a warm October at the same tme. KLMT picked up a lot of rain in 2014 and 2016.

Ironically 2014-15 was probably the best windstorm season of the century so far for NW OR and SW WA.  Several potent storms in the midst of all that Nino loveliness. 

[ChrisAmunRA]

75-77° City of Seattle Neighborhoods just around average. 76° is average for last day before going 75° tomorrow for average. 

[NWbyNW]

Only reached 72F here today.  Currently 68F.

[Cascadia_Wx]

59 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Last 90 of 2022 at PDX???

I know you’re trying to jinx it anyway, but they will have 90s going deep into the fall this year. Their last 90 in 2021 was a notably early August 15, despite the ridiculous early part of the warm season.

[SnowWillarrive]

12 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I know you’re trying to jinx it anyway, but they will have 90s going deep into the fall this year. Their last 90 in 2021 was a notably early August 15, despite the ridiculous early part of the warm season.

PDX might hit 90 in November the way things going. 

[The Blob]

3 hours ago, Deweydog said:

Fun fact!

Sun angles today are lower than they were on 4/11/22.

 

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Very pleasant in Puget Sound region today. Only 75 here. Feels much better today vs the last two days. 

The models kind of appear we may be pretty much done with heat here for the year.  Probably some low 80s still to come, but maybe not much more than that.

[snow_wizard]

SEA hit 77 today.  A bit short of the 0z GFS going for 91. 

[Front Ranger]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Just amazing.    Everything in late spring pointed to a cool payback summer.    And it ends up not being cool or even normal... it actually ups the ante on the warming summers over the last decade and was top tier warm.   Hard to believe.    Not sure how we get a cool payback summer now.   I am starting to doubt its even possible at this point.   

I am also really interested to see how the effects of Tonga play out over the next 5+ years.    It just seems like warmth might be even easier to achieve.    All speculation of course... but we are dealing with an unprecedented event and the first northern hemisphere summer has been crazy warm in many far apart places like China and Europe and the PNW.

Haven't seen a single mention of Tonga being a source of warming anywhere outside of this forum.

[Front Ranger]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

It really would be nice to get at least one significant rain event.    Fall color will not be impressive if it stays this dry through September.     At one point the ECMWF was showing a significant AR event starting tomorrow. 

It will rain when Russell returns.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

51 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Haven't seen a single mention of Tonga being a source of warming anywhere outside of this forum.

And it really just has one source on here...

[Phil]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

SEA hit 77 today.  A bit short of the 0z GFS going for 91. 

14 degree miss inside 24hrs is insane. That 2024 GFS upgrade can’t come soon enough.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

14 degree miss inside 24hrs is insane. That 2024 GFS upgrade can’t come soon enough.

Did fine down here.

[MV_snow]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

14 degree miss inside 24hrs is insane. That 2024 GFS upgrade can’t come soon enough.

It happens often when the marine layer over performs, like today. The GFS is notoriously bad at overestimating highs with any type of marine influence. Even so, a 14 degree miss within a day is insane like you said.

[Cloud]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

SEA hit 77 today.  A bit short of the 0z GFS going for 91. 

Right but we should look at the reason WHY. 

There's really no reason for the model with this kind of infrastructure to be this far off at this range. And it's quite obvious we can see why too.... it completely missed the marine influence, which allowed it to gave that ridiculous output. 

The 00z last night showed ZERO marine influence at all throughout the day, when in fact, SEA was under this thick layer until 1-2PM in the afternoon today. 

If it can get the marine layer stuff fixed, it'll be better for the model.

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

SEA hit 77 today.  A bit short of the 0z GFS going for 91. 

It's always cold here.   Models show warmth and it never comes.   

[Phil]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

It's always cold here.   Models show warmth and it never comes.   

Your boy goofus is cracked. Just admit it.

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Right but we should look at the reason WHY. 

There's really no reason for the model with this kind of infrastructure to be this far off at this range. And it's quite obvious we can see why too.... it completely missed the marine influence, which allowed it to gave that ridiculous output. 

The 00z last night showed ZERO marine influence at all throughout the day, when in fact, SEA was under this thick layer until 1-2PM in the afternoon today. 

If it can get the marine layer stuff fixed, it'll be better for the model.

It has a chronic dry bias in the BL. Will randomly spit out 130°F surface temps over the Plains during the midsummer months. Probably the same reason it can’t simulate marine influence accurately.

[Cloud]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Your boy goofus is cracked. Just admit it.

It's definitely cracked at certain aspect, like catching the marine influence for example. LR pattern behavior, I think it's quite decent. 

[Phil]

Just now, Cloud said:

It's definitely cracked at certain aspect, like catching the marine influence for example. LR pattern behavior, I think it's quite decent. 

Vehemently disagree. It scores lower than the ECMWF, UKMET, and CMC at z500/D5+.

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Vehemently disagree. It scores lower than the ECMWF, UKMET, and CMC at z500/D5+.

These are mid-range? 

[Doinko]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

It has a chronic dry bias in the BL. Will randomly spit out 130°F surface temps over the Plains during the midsummer months. Probably the same reason it can’t simulate marine influence accurately.

Is that why the GFS is more accurate for the Willamette Valley than the Puget Sound, less marine influence?

[TT-SEA]

11 minutes ago, Phil said:

Your boy goofus is cracked. Just admit it.

I follow the ECMWF for surface details and know to add at least 3-5 degrees to the temps on most days.    The ECMWF is the best model out there for all surface details but it has a very predictable cool bias.    And yet its all quiet on here on days like Tuesday when the GFS predicted 90 and it was actually 90... while the ECMWF said it was only be 81.  

I can easily recognize the days when the GFS will have problems.    

The implication by Jim is that the GFS is always off by 15 degrees.    I need to save some of his posts mocking the GFS when he is talking about its ridiculously cold temps this winter.    Can't have it both ways.   

[GobBluth]

Goofus doing goofus things late next week

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I follow the ECMWF for surface details and know to add at least 3-5 degrees to the temps on most days.    The ECMWF is the best model out there for all surface details but it has a very predictable cool bias.    And yet its all quiet on here on days like Tuesday when the GFS predicted 90 and it was actually 90... while the ECMWF said it was only be 81.  

I can easily recognize the days when the GFS will have problems.    

The implication by Jim is that the GFS is always off by 15 degrees.    I need to save some of his posts mocking the GFS when he is talking about its ridiculously cold temps this winter.    Can't have it both ways.   

The ECMWF projected 79°F today. Even it was too warm.

The GFS is projecting 90°F again tomorrow, while the ECMWF has 80°F. I wonder which will be closer.  

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

The ECMWF projected 79°F today. Even it was too warm.

The GFS is forecasting 91°F again tomorrow, while the ECMWF is predicting 80°F. I wonder which will be closer.  

For SEA? It's forecasting 84 tomorrow.... not 91? 

[TacomaWx]

Wonder how many more times we will discuss the gfs/euro biases we all know very well. 

[SnowWillarrive]

22 minutes ago, Phil said:

Your boy goofus is cracked. Just admit it.

Yea the way the NWS was acting like this was going to be a day of extreme heat.

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Wonder how many more times we will discuss the gfs/euro biases we all know very well. 

It's always going to be discussed when there's a narrative to drive.

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Wonder how many more times we will discuss the gfs/euro biases we all know very well. 

69

[Kayla]

GFS

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Yea the way the NWS was acting like this was going to be a day of extreme heat.

Funny thing is... they used the blend model as the tool for their forecast... which on most days are actually closer to the Euro's surface details. 

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

69

Noice!

[GobBluth]

CMC joins the heat parade late next week.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Phil said:

The ECMWF projected 79°F today. Even it was too warm.

The GFS is forecasting 91°F again tomorrow, while the ECMWF is predicting 80°F. I wonder which will be closer.  

If you lived here it would be more obvious to you when there will be model issues.   The days when all the models will bust too warm is days with a solid marine layer that hangs on until at least noon and then slowly clears.   Its much easier for the models to handle all day clouds or all day sunshine.   Timing of clearing is everything on days like today.   Today was a guaranteed failure for the GFS.    

For tomorrow... the 12Z ECMWF showed 80 and the 00Z GFS shows 88.    The ECMWF handles marine layer clouds almost perfectly and it shows some low clouds into the Seattle area tomorrow morning and then clearing quickly.  Much quicker than today.   But still... onshore flow will be increasing during the day so I would lean slightly towards the ECMWF tomorrow.    Probably 82 or 83.