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  • Longtimer
28 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Well then I’m fully expecting to see this scene when I get home in a bit. 

D84D9210-7D42-4A3B-98B6-3FE87EA9CDCB.jpeg

Well that didn’t work out. 

F18F572F-475C-4FA9-B6AD-03B11BC2620B.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Remarkable stats from the Atlantic this season.

1. Only the third time since 1950 there were no named storms in the month of August...1961, 1997 were the others.

2. First time since 1941 to have no named storms in the July 3 through August period.

1941 and 1997 were both big El Ninos.  Really strange.

Analogs don't always work, but 41-42 was the first of 3 straight solid winters in K-Falls. 45", following 69" in 42-43, and another 46" in 43-44. Sometimes a weak one happened back then too, so having multiple winters in a row like that was a treat no matter what time period you look at.

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Warm Season Stats

Thunders: 50
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 7/5, 7/6, 7/8, 7/12, 7/17, 7/18
7/21, 7/23, 7/27, 7/31, 8/1, 8/4, 8/5, 8/6, 8/7, 8/9
8/10, 8/11, 8/14, 8/21, 8/26, 8/29, 8/30, 9/3, 9/4, 9/6

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 4 / 3
Frequent Lightning: 5 (5/20), (6/13), (7/6), (7/21), 8/1, 
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13), ~55 (7/6)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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  • Longtimer

Analogs gone wild. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer
1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

October is pretty dew. Just had their latest 100+ since 1988, so might as well do the latest 90+ since then too.

Indigenous People’s Day heat storm 2022!

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

October is pretty dew. Just had their latest 100+ since 1988, so might as well do the latest 90+ since then too.

2020 had the warmest start to an October since 1996 where I lived, with three consecutive ~85+ days. 

2015 was overall a warmer October though, so probably due for another one like that.

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Warm Season Stats

Thunders: 50
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 7/5, 7/6, 7/8, 7/12, 7/17, 7/18
7/21, 7/23, 7/27, 7/31, 8/1, 8/4, 8/5, 8/6, 8/7, 8/9
8/10, 8/11, 8/14, 8/21, 8/26, 8/29, 8/30, 9/3, 9/4, 9/6

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 4 / 3
Frequent Lightning: 5 (5/20), (6/13), (7/6), (7/21), 8/1, 
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13), ~55 (7/6)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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  • Longtimer
6 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

2020 had the warmest start to an October since 1996 where I lived, with three consecutive ~85+ days. 

2015 was overall a warmer October though, so probably due for another one like that.

Octobers 2014 and 2015 were both historically warm throughout the region, just lacking amplification sexy enough for a late season 90+.

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Octobers 2014 and 2015 were both historically warm throughout the region, just lacking amplification sexy enough for a late season 90+.

I like how 2014 kickstarted windstorm season, a decent start to the water year and managed a warm October at the same tme. KLMT picked up a lot of rain in 2014 and 2016.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Warm Season Stats

Thunders: 50
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 7/5, 7/6, 7/8, 7/12, 7/17, 7/18
7/21, 7/23, 7/27, 7/31, 8/1, 8/4, 8/5, 8/6, 8/7, 8/9
8/10, 8/11, 8/14, 8/21, 8/26, 8/29, 8/30, 9/3, 9/4, 9/6

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 4 / 3
Frequent Lightning: 5 (5/20), (6/13), (7/6), (7/21), 8/1, 
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13), ~55 (7/6)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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And that's another one! 90F-burger achieved!

Tennessee Titans' Kevin Byard makes PFF's list of the 50 best players

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 35F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 17F (Feb 23, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Apr 17, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 5 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 10.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 30.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @363jerseys4hope

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It really would be nice to get at least one significant rain event.    Fall color will not be impressive if it stays this dry through September.     At one point the ECMWF was showing a significant AR event starting tomorrow. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

40s to 90s at EUG today.

 

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 35F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 17F (Feb 23, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Apr 17, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 5 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 10.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 30.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @363jerseys4hope

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  • Longtimer

Nice day. Glad it is fall. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer
16 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

I like how 2014 kickstarted windstorm season, a decent start to the water year and managed a warm October at the same tme. KLMT picked up a lot of rain in 2014 and 2016.

Ironically 2014-15 was probably the best windstorm season of the century so far for NW OR and SW WA.  Several potent storms in the midst of all that Nino loveliness. 

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75-77° City of Seattle Neighborhoods just around average. 76° is average for last day before going 75° tomorrow for average. 

Know thyself and you shall know the Gods!!!!

All things are possible, who you are is limited by who you think you are!!!!

☥𓂀

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  • Longtimer
59 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Last 90 of 2022 at PDX???

I know you’re trying to jinx it anyway, but they will have 90s going deep into the fall this year. Their last 90 in 2021 was a notably early August 15, despite the ridiculous early part of the warm season.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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2 hours ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Very pleasant in Puget Sound region today. Only 75 here. Feels much better today vs the last two days. 

The models kind of appear we may be pretty much done with heat here for the year.  Probably some low 80s still to come, but maybe not much more than that.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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SEA hit 77 today.  A bit short of the 0z GFS going for 91. 🤣

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Just amazing.    Everything in late spring pointed to a cool payback summer.    And it ends up not being cool or even normal... it actually ups the ante on the warming summers over the last decade and was top tier warm.   Hard to believe.    Not sure how we get a cool payback summer now.   I am starting to doubt its even possible at this point.   

I am also really interested to see how the effects of Tonga play out over the next 5+ years.    It just seems like warmth might be even easier to achieve.    All speculation of course... but we are dealing with an unprecedented event and the first northern hemisphere summer has been crazy warm in many far apart places like China and Europe and the PNW.

Haven't seen a single mention of Tonga being a source of warming anywhere outside of this forum.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

It really would be nice to get at least one significant rain event.    Fall color will not be impressive if it stays this dry through September.     At one point the ECMWF was showing a significant AR event starting tomorrow. 

It will rain when Russell returns.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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  • Longtimer
51 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Haven't seen a single mention of Tonga being a source of warming anywhere outside of this forum.

And it really just has one source on here... 🤡

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  • Snow 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

SEA hit 77 today.  A bit short of the 0z GFS going for 91. 🤣

14 degree miss inside 24hrs is insane. That 2024 GFS upgrade can’t come soon enough.

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  • Longtimer
5 minutes ago, Phil said:

14 degree miss inside 24hrs is insane. That 2024 GFS upgrade can’t come soon enough.

Did fine down here.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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6 minutes ago, Phil said:

14 degree miss inside 24hrs is insane. That 2024 GFS upgrade can’t come soon enough.

It happens often when the marine layer over performs, like today. The GFS is notoriously bad at overestimating highs with any type of marine influence. Even so, a 14 degree miss within a day is insane like you said.

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

SEA hit 77 today.  A bit short of the 0z GFS going for 91. 🤣

Right but we should look at the reason WHY. 

There's really no reason for the model with this kind of infrastructure to be this far off at this range. And it's quite obvious we can see why too.... it completely missed the marine influence, which allowed it to gave that ridiculous output. 

The 00z last night showed ZERO marine influence at all throughout the day, when in fact, SEA was under this thick layer until 1-2PM in the afternoon today. 

If it can get the marine layer stuff fixed, it'll be better for the model.

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

SEA hit 77 today.  A bit short of the 0z GFS going for 91. 🤣

It's always cold here.   Models show warmth and it never comes.   😀

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

It's always cold here.   Models show warmth and it never comes.   😀

Your boy goofus is cracked. Just admit it. 😏

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9 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Right but we should look at the reason WHY. 

There's really no reason for the model with this kind of infrastructure to be this far off at this range. And it's quite obvious we can see why too.... it completely missed the marine influence, which allowed it to gave that ridiculous output. 

The 00z last night showed ZERO marine influence at all throughout the day, when in fact, SEA was under this thick layer until 1-2PM in the afternoon today. 

If it can get the marine layer stuff fixed, it'll be better for the model.

It has a chronic dry bias in the BL. Will randomly spit out 130°F surface temps over the Plains during the midsummer months. Probably the same reason it can’t simulate marine influence accurately.

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Just now, Cloud said:

It's definitely cracked at certain aspect, like catching the marine influence for example. LR pattern behavior, I think it's quite decent. 

Vehemently disagree. It scores lower than the ECMWF, UKMET, and CMC at z500/D5+.

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5 minutes ago, Phil said:

It has a chronic dry bias in the BL. Will randomly spit out 130°F surface temps over the Plains during the midsummer months. Probably the same reason it can’t simulate marine influence accurately.

Is that why the GFS is more accurate for the Willamette Valley than the Puget Sound, less marine influence?

Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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11 minutes ago, Phil said:

Your boy goofus is cracked. Just admit it. 😏

I follow the ECMWF for surface details and know to add at least 3-5 degrees to the temps on most days.    The ECMWF is the best model out there for all surface details but it has a very predictable cool bias.    And yet its all quiet on here on days like Tuesday when the GFS predicted 90 and it was actually 90... while the ECMWF said it was only be 81.  

I can easily recognize the days when the GFS will have problems.    

The implication by Jim is that the GFS is always off by 15 degrees.    I need to save some of his posts mocking the GFS when he is talking about its ridiculously cold temps this winter.    Can't have it both ways.   😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I follow the ECMWF for surface details and know to add at least 3-5 degrees to the temps on most days.    The ECMWF is the best model out there for all surface details but it has a very predictable cool bias.    And yet its all quiet on here on days like Tuesday when the GFS predicted 90 and it was actually 90... while the ECMWF said it was only be 81.  

I can easily recognize the days when the GFS will have problems.    

The implication by Jim is that the GFS is always off by 15 degrees.    I need to save some of his posts mocking the GFS when he is talking about its ridiculously cold temps this winter.    Can't have it both ways.   😀

The ECMWF projected 79°F today. Even it was too warm.

The GFS is projecting 90°F again tomorrow, while the ECMWF has 80°F. I wonder which will be closer. 🙄 

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

The ECMWF projected 79°F today. Even it was too warm.

The GFS is forecasting 91°F again tomorrow, while the ECMWF is predicting 80°F. I wonder which will be closer. 🙄 

For SEA? It's forecasting 84 tomorrow.... not 91? 

sfctmax_024h.us_state_wa.png

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1 minute ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Yea the way the NWS was acting like this was going to be a day of extreme heat.

Funny thing is... they used the blend model as the tool for their forecast... which on most days are actually closer to the Euro's surface details. 

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