PNW September 2022 Wx Obs/Disc

[Rubus Leucodermis]

33 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

My former boss is Canadian, and the now retired Chief Engineer is British.. they loved to team up and give us crap about spelling differences and how we spelled things wrong.  I pretty much started throwing a 'u' after the 'o' in all of my emails them. 

I also used to give the Chief Engineer crap, telling him that the reason why our metal expenditures was so high (I was the project cost analyst) was because he always called for Al-you-min-ee-um instead of regular 'ole aluminum.

I had a British boss at one job in Seattle, and everyone gave him sh*t about how he pronounced “schedule.”

[Meatyorologist]

Sin-opp-sis thyme! Been a good month since I last posted one.

KSEA is currently running 2F behind yesterday's pace under a stiff northerly breeze. This falls in line with all morning guidance; maybe a bit less of a marine influence than expected a couple days ago. Should top out somewhere a bit shy of 80F, with weak winds. By most metrics a quite enjoyable day.

Tomorrow will up the ante even further, bringing one of the more pleasant days you'll ever see in Seattle. Overnight, sliding in from interior Canada, a potent early Fall trough will come crashing into the interior west. While this feature will mainly affect the ID-ND area, its presence will still drive our weather headlines through Sunday. As this trough digs well to our east, surface pressure gradients on the westside will turn NNE, sending dry northerlies ripping through the lowlands. These northerlies will kill off much of any marine cloud presence, but their persistence and strength will allow for a rare 21st century summer day with wall-to-wall sunshine and highs in the upper 60s. Lows in the 40s too! What most Seattleites dream of.

Unfortunately, the same mechanism that gives us our spectacular day tomorrow turns against us Friday and Saturday, bringing dangerous fire weather and enhancing a largely unwanted late season heatwave. Beginning Thursday night, a budding thermal trough off the coast of NorCal will roam northward and strengthen, turning gradients over the mountains easterly, and advecting along with it that intense airmass that crushed all time records in NorCal the last couple days. But that is not all -- by grace of very unfortunate timing, the clipper-esque trough over the MT area will dig further into the WY-SD region, angling pressure gradients even more easterly, working directly in tandem with the thermal trough offshore.

Friday will bring a 90° shift in wind direction south of Chehalis, and western OR will bear the brunt of this double-headed east wind event. Temperatures will skyrocket into the 90s in the Willamette Valley as katabatic winds mix down that hot, dry NorCal airmass, with dewpoints dropping well below freezing. The western Cascade foothills in OR will have their highest fire danger since that mutant east wind event two years ago. While it won't be nearly as bad as the day the sky was completely blotted out, fire risk will still be put on steroids for the westside.

Overnight, any fire starts on Friday will not alleviate. In fact, easterly gradients will peak near midnight, and persist well into the evening on Saturday. With these easterly winds remaining, some exposed locations in the Willamette Valley will have a hard time dipping below 70F, while other, more protected locales, will plummet into the 50s. With easterly winds strengthening, new overnight fire starts could definitely happen.

Saturday the thermal trough will slide further north, its main axis reaching the OR/WA border by nightfall, by which time easterly gradients will finally relax, but not after another even hotter day, with continued high fire danger. WA will join in on the east wind fun, too, with fire danger elevated in the foothill areas here. Highs will reach their warmest on Saturday, with 90s up and down the lowlands amidst very dry air.

Looking ahead, we find a retreating hot airmass on Sunday, with low level westerlies punching back through, and a reappearance of the marine layer on Monday. Highs will plummet from the low 80s on Sunday, down to the 60s on Monday. Looking like a cooler and cloudier week after Sunday, and perhaps the inception of true Autumn weather and the end of the Summer season. Currently there is no consensus for another heatwave beyond the upcoming one Fri-Sun.

One final note, any current fires that survive to Fri/Sat (no rain or high humidity in the fcst thru tomm night unfortunately) will for sure be re-strengthened. I have a feeling this will make for another smokefest over the weekend. Brace yourselves.

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

My spelling checker insists on it. I figure that since I am working for a Canadian business in which Canadian English is standard, I should follow suit. When in Rome….

same, I work for a Canadian based company and live in the states.  I use the 'u' in Labour and others all the time.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

35 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Wondering if one of these posters on here is Brian Schmit? Jesse or Rob may know. Just curious cause of the some of the stuff he puts on another Portland page. 

I don't think he posts on here. 

[High Desert Mat?]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I don't think he posts on here. 

His bassaholic meat wagon post had me busting up lol. 

[TT-SEA]

35 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Looking ahead, we find a retreating hot airmass on Sunday, with low level westerlies punching back through, and a reappearance of the marine layer on Monday. Highs will plummet from the low 80s on Sunday, down to the 60s on Monday. Looking like a cooler and cloudier week after Sunday, and perhaps the inception of true Autumn weather and the end of the Summer season. Currently there is no consensus for another heatwave beyond the upcoming one Fri-Sun.

 

FWIW... the ECMWF and GFS both show partly to mostly sunny and mid 70s on Monday still.    

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We will have to wait and see...

[Clancy MT DW9972]

3 hours ago, Kayla said:

Yeah it's been a brutal stretch and I'm also SO ready for Fall! Have already hit 93F today...on September 7th!! I agree though, even though summer was well above average it was a pretty pleasant summer with well timed rainfalls throughout and no wildfire smoke! I'm up to nearly 17" of precip on the year so far so still tracking a bit above average as well.

As long as we avoid a bunch of new fire starts today I'll be content with how this summer turned out.

We just hit 97F about an hour ago once the wind picked up, thankfully there has been periods of cloud cover to allow me to get some outside stuff done.  I am certainly satisfied with how this summer turned out.  Funny thing is, back in  Mid September 2017, the 15th and 16th, it was hot like it is right now and that summer was dry as a bone with insane smoke, I kid you not, the very next day  we had 9" of heavy, wet, destructive snow fall during the night.  I had to stay up all night to knock snow out of the trees to keep the branches from snapping, and every 5 seconds I would hear branches snapping all over the neighborhood, but the snow continued through the following day and it accumulated on everything even though the ground was baked from the summer heat.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Clancy MT DW9972 said:

We just hit 97F about an hour ago once the wind picked up, thankfully there has been periods of cloud cover to allow me to get some outside stuff done.  I am certainly satisfied with how this summer turned out.  Funny thing is, back in  Mid September 2017, the 15th and 16th, it was hot like it is right now and that summer was dry as a bone with insane smoke, I kid you not, the very next day  we had 9" of heavy, wet, destructive snow fall during the night.  I had to stay up all night to knock snow out of the trees to keep the branches from snapping, and every 5 seconds I would hear branches snapping all over the neighborhood, but the snow continued through the following day and it accumulated on everything even though the ground was baked from the summer heat.  

Wild

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice day. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Lala Land

[TT-SEA]

That fire in the North Cascades is roaring today with strong onshore flow... and I assume that will end up dumping smoke westward into at least Bellingham and Vancouver BC by Friday when we have strong offshore flow. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That fire in the North Cascades is roaring today with strong onshore flow... and I assume that will end up dumping smoke westward into at least Bellingham and Vancouver BC by Friday when we have strong offshore flow. 

Looks like Sesame Street compared to two years ago. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So much relief ahead.... 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like Sesame Street compared to two years ago. 

For now.   Assuming we don't have more fires starting.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

So much relief ahead.... 

Today is downright lovely.   September perfection.  And tomorrow is cooler.  Don't need relief from the current weather.  

[High Desert Mat?]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

So much relief ahead.... 

much appreciated and much needed. 

[T-Town]

1 hour ago, Phishy Wx said:

same, I work for a Canadian based company and live in the states.  I use the 'u' in Labour and others all the time.

I work in networking for a US based company with network engineers in London, Belfast and Sydney. Normally they say “rooter” in those places, but will correct themselves to say “router” when talking to those of us in the states. Dude, I know what you mean by rooter. It’s ok. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

much appreciated and much needed. 

Exactly. Better weather cannot come soon enough. 

[MossMan]

17 hours ago, Dan the Weatherman said:

I never knew that Cal Worthington had a dealership up there! I thought he was only here in Socal!

I can still hear the jingle in my 10yr old head…

”Yugo Yugo Yugo See Cal” (He sold Fords and Yugo’s) 

“Worthington Ford in Federal Way, the only way, open til midnight everyday…Will see you there!” 

[Omegaraptor]

22 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Today is downright lovely.   September perfection.  And tomorrow is cooler.  Don't need relief from the current weather.  

hope it never rains again

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I can still hear the jingle in my 10yr old head…

”Yugo Yugo Yugo See Cal” (He sold Fords and Yugo’s) 

“Worthington Ford in Federal Way, the only way, open til midnight everyday…Will see you there!” 

Cal Worthington also had a dealership up in Anchorage.

[BLI snowman]

32 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Today is downright lovely.   September perfection.  And tomorrow is cooler.  Don't need relief from the current weather.  

Need rain, which the current weather is not providing.

And the current weather literally lasts for 48 hours before we turn right back into charbroiled chicken again on Friday!

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Need rain, which the current weather is not providing.

And the current weather literally lasts for 48 hours before we turn right back into charbroiled chicken again on Friday!

It was sort of tongue-in-cheek since today was so pleasant.

 

[BLI snowman]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

It was sort of tongue-in-cheek since today was so pleasant.

 

Feels like the cold-freak equivalent to one of those mild, showery/sunbreaky days we had in early June that drove you so off the wall. Mostly kinda pleasant at face value but after 60 days of utter vomit we need to see a whole lot more. 

[TT-SEA]

14 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Feels like the cold-freak equivalent to one of those mild, showery/sunbreaky days we had in early June that drove you so off the wall. Mostly kinda pleasant at face value but after 60 days of utter vomit we need to see a whole lot more. 

That early June weather was spectacular for the garden and at face value was sort of enjoyable.   But as you mention... put in context of the 75 or so days of utter vomit preceding it and it was harder to enjoy.   Maybe we would all be happier if nature was a little more balanced?    The weather since late March has been disgustingly streaky in the terms of rainfall.   I had a sense the offset to this spring was going to be a seriously long dry spell.   Its been sort of like 2012 but much warmer.  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

90F-burger again!

[Doinko]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That early June weather as spectacular for the garden and at face value was sort of enjoyable.   But as you mention... put in context of the 75 or so days of utter vomit preceding it and it was harder to enjoy.   Maybe we would all be happier if nature was a little more balanced?    The weather since late March has been disgustingly streaky in the terms of rainfall.   I had a sense the offset to this spring was going to be a seriously long dry spell.   Its been sort of like 2012 but much warmer.  

In my area the spring was quite enjoyable in my opinion, I liked the large amounts of rain and still had a decent amount of sunshine for at least an hour or two during those April/May showers/sunbreaks days.

However my perspective is probably a lot different than yours being in the heart of the coast range rain shadow while you're in a very wet part of the PNW. And you prefer more sunshine compared to continuous rain, while I don't mind it too much.

Crazy that we're probably going to make it to the longest dry streak on record in Portland though!

[TT-SEA]

23 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

In my area the spring was quite enjoyable in my opinion, I liked the large amounts of rain and still had a decent amount of sunshine for at least an hour or two during those April/May showers/sunbreaks days.

However my perspective is probably a lot different than yours being in the heart of the coast range rain shadow while you're in a very wet part of the PNW. And you prefer more sunshine compared to continuous rain, while I don't mind it too much.

Crazy that we're probably going to make it to the longest dry streak on record in Portland though!

I was being a little dramatic earlier to match Justin.    And I stick to comparison of climo to actual weather for my area.   I am really not sitting here thinking the weather here should be like Palm Springs or even Seattle like Phil pretends.   

The reality is that from March 20 - June 20 there should have been about 35-40 dry days here.   It normally rains on 50-55 days in that period which is still the majority of days.   But those 35-40 dry days make a huge difference.   We had 4 dry days this year in that period.   Just stupid.   And of course now its been completely balanced out by almost 3 months with no rain.  

We average 180 dry days a year out here.   Seattle has about 210 dry days.   So technically when a person prefers the dry days in Seattle that means they prefer the majority climo weather.   Rainy days are in the minority.    And out here its a 50/50 split.    I just wish we stop splitting it in 3 month increments... way too extreme.

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I was being a little dramatic earlier to match Justin.    And I really stick to comparison of climo to actual weather for my area.   I am really not sitting here thinking the weather here should be like Palm Springs or even Seattle like Phil pretends.   

The reality is that from March 20 - June 20 there should have been about 35-40 dry days here.   It normally rains on 50-55 days in that period which is still the majority of days.   But those 35-40 dry days make a huge difference.   We had 4 dry days this year in that period.   Just stupid.   And of course now its been completely balanced out by almost 3 months with no rain.  

We average 180 dry days a year out here.   Seattle has about 210 dry days.   So technically when a person prefers the dry days in Seattle that means they prefer the majority climo weather.   Rainy days are in the minority.    And out here its a 50/50 split.    I just wish we stop splitting it in 3 month increments... way too extreme.

I know the spring was anomalous, I just personally didn't mind it. My area also only averages like ~36" of precip too so that might've helped.

[Doinko]

8 hours ago, Doiinko said:

Wow

Well time to add another one, SLC hit 107 today. That ties their all time record too.

[T-Town]

74 here on God’s favorite slag heap. 

[MossMan]

Completed one of my fall prep phases today! Cleaning up the front landscaping! A few before and after pics, perfect day for it! 
74/50 on the day. Currently 69. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

5 minutes ago, T-Town said:

74 here on God’s favorite slag heap. 

Although technically, Ruston is not Tacoma.

[TT-SEA]

78 at SEA today.    

ECMWF had 73 and GFS had 78.

Goofus is always 10-15 degrees too warm.  

 

[Front Ranger]

Insanely, satanically pleasant evening in St Louis taking in a Cards game.

[Front Ranger]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

78 at SEA today.    

ECMWF had 73 and GFS had 78.

Goofus is always 10-15 degrees too warm.  

 

And SEA of course represents the entire PNW.

[T-Town]

13 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Although technically, Ruston is not Tacoma.

In Tacoma we embrace the slag as our own. 

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

And SEA of course represents the entire PNW.

In this case... the ongoing debate is specifically about SEA and the model performance there in regards to temp output.

[Phishy Wx]

lol they said the news today over here on the east side some people thought they saw steam coming out of Rainier today and they thought it was about to blow.  turns out it was clouds