PNW September 2022 Wx Obs/Disc

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If I lived in the Oakridge area I would be pretty nervous right now. 

[Phil]

48 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I thought maybe I missed something big on the 00Z ECMWF with that sarcastic post from Jesse about it not running.   But no... it was about the same or just a bit warmer than the previous run.

It was cooler on balance, actually.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

It was cooler on balance, actually.

Just playing along your post because it went back to ridging at the end.   All meaningless when looking at the GFS beyond day 7.

[Phil]

20 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I hate smoke season.  thinking we might head to the east coast and post up at the beach in SC until early to mid October at the Condo like we did last year.  was hoping we were going to miss the smoke this summer, oof.  maybe get some Tropical WX out of it too.

Hope u enjoy dewpoints.

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KLRO&hours=72

[Cascadia_Wx]

15 minutes ago, Chris said:

Pretty much eating up one of the last large, unburned parts of the Oregon Cascades. Very well done.

[Phil]

Some EPS members do develop a “home brew” tropical system off the SC coast next week. Those waters are still steamy, anything can pop off there if upper level conditions allow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Pretty much eating up one of the last large, unburned parts of the Oregon Cascades. Very well done.

They really need to log this burned timber. 

[Phil]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just playing along your post because it went back to ridging at the end.   All meaningless when looking at the GFS beyond day 7.

This reads like one of my drunk posts.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Pretty much eating up one of the last large, unburned parts of the Oregon Cascades. Very well done.

I will say, areas lower in elevation, especially that didn't burn at high intensity, grow back very quickly. Even in the gorge it is remarkable much quickly the area of the Eagle Creek burn is recovering. If we could log much of the standing dead timber, and just leave a couple snags per acre for wildlife, the areas would recover aesthetically very quickly. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Phil said:

This reads like one of my drunk posts.

It must be hard looking at an ensemble map in the medium/long range that isn't 10C above average for the entire run.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Looks like we ended up getting down to 49 this morning. First 40s since June if I’m not mistaken.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some chilly readings in NW Oregon this morning. Thanks to Brian S for this map. All the credit goes to him, the NWS, and our maker. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Looks like we ended up getting down to 49 this morning. First 40s since June if I’m not mistaken.

If things break just right we are 2-3 weeks from first freezes in isolated outlying areas and 4-6 weeks from first frost/freeze outside of the urban CORE. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

This reads like one of my drunk posts.

You original post?   Yes... that did sound like drunk Phil.  

[Phil]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

You original post?   Yes... that did sound like drunk Phil.  

What?

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Phil said:

What?

Read back.   I was just going along with your post from yesterday about the 18Z run.

There was a big change from the 18Z run to the 06Z run.    Of course its all meaningless at that range anyways.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Good grief. 

[Phil]

Wow.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Phil said:

Wow.

You were the one the celebrating the 18Z run like it means anything. 

[Phishy Wx]

25 minutes ago, Phil said:

Hope u enjoy dewpoints.

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KLRO&hours=72

it'll be fine.  I did it last year.  WAY BETTER than shitty air quality

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

it'll be fine.  I did it last year.  WAY BETTER than shitty air quality

Humidity does sound better than smoke.  

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You were the one the celebrating the 18Z run like it means anything. 

You’re off your rocker man. It was a random tongue in cheek post. Like 80% of the posts in this thread.

The only thing I’m celebrating is the cold air building in the arctic across guidance. Glad that we’re finally putting summer to bed. Good f**king riddance.

[Front Ranger]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Read back.   I was just going along with your post from yesterday about the 18Z run.

There was a big change from the 18Z run to the 06Z run.    Of course its all meaningless at that range anyways.  

I think you're confused. Phil was talking about the Euro.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS is weaker with the troughing on Monday... it has gone from low 70s to low 80s that day over the last couple of runs.   

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

You’re off your rocker man. It was a random tongue in cheek post. Like 80% of the posts in this thread.

The only thing I’m celebrating is the cold air building in the arctic across guidance. Glad that we’re finally putting summer to bed. Good f**king riddance.

My original post this morning about the 06Z run was also a random tongue in cheek posts.   I don't take the GFS seriously after day 7.   

[Skagit Weather]

48 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Those fires in the N Washington Cascades are actually pretty small. 

Small for Oregon, but actually pretty decently sized for northwest Washington. The complex up near Copper Ridge on the west side (in North Cascades National Park) is almost 3,000 acres which would be the largest fire in the western North Cascades since 2015 and the second largest this century. Fortunately there's not too much activity up there at the moment.

The bigger problem is the "Parks Fire" which straddles the Pasayten Wilderness and is partly in Canada. That area has large fires every year, but it's currently throwing up a lot of smoke, is approaching 10,000 acres, and will probably be a big smoke producer this weekend.

[Blizzard777]

2 hours ago, FroYoBro said:

Wow, I actually felt cold when I stepped outside this morning. 46 degrees here. 

Lol….I had shorts on and tank top to walk to local store for coffee( in your neck of the woods).….brrrrrr indeed.  I survived

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Humidity does sound better than smoke.  

I’d definitely take the smoke, especially if it’s elevated above the boundary layer.

Worst is the combo of high humidity and smoke. Have had that multiple times and it’s the grossest thing ever.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I think you're confused. Phil was talking about the Euro.

OMG... can we discuss this longer?    He posted right after a very troughy 18Z run.     

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS is weaker with the troughing on Monday... it has gone from low 70s to low 80s that day over the last couple of runs.   

850mb temps are 11C on Monday, verbatim.

Low 80s ain’t happening if that’s the case.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Phil said:

850mb temps are 11C on Monday, verbatim.

Low 80s ain’t happening if that’s the case.

Regardless... it has trended warmer for that day.    It shows sun all day too.    I am only interested in that day because of the big Seahawks game.  

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS is much warmer for Tuesday and Wednesday as well compared to the runs yesterday.   

Although we might still be inundated with smoke by then with weaker onshore flow.  

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’d definitely take the smoke, especially if it’s elevated above the boundary layer.

Worst is the combo of high humidity and smoke. Have had that multiple times and it’s the grossest thing ever.

We have had that in recent years as well.    I think it was in 2018 when it was humid and smoky at the same time.   Miserable.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Regardless... it has trended warmer for that day.    It shows sun all day too.    I am only interested in that day because of the big Seahawks game.  

Not surprising considering it has a well documented warm/dry bias in the boundary layer.

It’s so bad that LWX (and other WFOs) actively disregard the GFS during the warm season.  Sad that our flagship model serves literally no benefit.

[AlTahoe]

44 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Pretty much eating up one of the last large, unburned parts of the Oregon Cascades. Very well done.

Our new fire (Mosquito) is going to shoot the only gap left between all the other burn areas into 100 year old fuels. There is a chance it could make it all the way onto the West shore of Tahoe. Caldor fire part2

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Phil said:

Not surprising considering it has a well documented warm/dry bias in the boundary layer.

It’s so bad that LWX (and other WFOs) actively disregard the GFS during the warm season.  Sad that our flagship model serves literally no benefit.

Its done very well this week with temps here.    I am just looking at the trends right now.  

[Winterdog]

I was a bit surprised I had a low of 40 this morning. Currently 55 with a beautiful day ahead.  One more miserable short stretch and it'll be see ya later 90's, don't let the door hit you in the butt.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

We have had that in recent years as well.    I think it was in 2018 when it was humid and smoky at the same time.   Miserable.

If it was PNW type humidity (dews in the 60s) I’d probably take that over a smokefest. At least that can still be comfortable.

But real humidity is the worst weather on the planet IMO. Would prefer almost anything to that.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like the 12Z GFS is bringing the remnants of the tropical moisture from Hurricane Kay northward through Idaho by next Thursday...

[ShawniganLake]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We have had that in recent years as well.    I think it was in 2018 when it was humid and smoky at the same time.   Miserable.

I’m sure Phil wants us to know that he has it so much worse where he lives.