PNW September 2022 Wx Obs/Disc

[Omegaraptor]

2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I’m sure Phil wants us to know that he has it so much worse where he lives. 

The Persian Gulf ain’t got nothing on Washington DC. The only body of water warmer than the Potomac and Chesapeake Bay is Lake Sammamish.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Summer may be worse in other parts of the country, but there is nothing as depressing as summer in the West. 

[Phishy Wx]

31 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Humidity does sound better than smoke.  

does wonders for my ashy skin this time of year too

[Phishy Wx]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Summer may be worse in other parts of the country, but there is nothing as depressing as summer in the West. 

especially when it starts off promising and mild only to get blasted by a hair dryer followed by choking smoke > Fall

[ShawniganLake]

3 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

The Persian Gulf ain’t got nothing on Washington DC. The only body of water warmer than the Potomac and Chesapeake Bay is Lake Sammamish.

One of my customers spent his career working in Saudi Arabia in the oil industry. The company policy wouldn’t stop work until temps reached 50C.  I figured it was a dry heat but turns out at certain times of the year the humidity there can be ridiculous. 

[Omegaraptor]

16 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Our new fire (Mosquito) is going to shoot the only gap left between all the other burn areas into 100 year old fuels. There is a chance it could make it all the way onto the West shore of Tahoe. Caldor fire part2

At the very least the amount of acreage burned in CA isn’t even close to 2020 and 2021 atm. Quite possible that so much burned in the last two summers, especially in the northern third of the state, that the more flammable areas just don’t have much of anything left to burn.

[TT-SEA]

GFS screws us out of any rain later next week and its way more ridgy than the 00Z run at that time.   That would be pretty disappointing.    Even I would love a soaking rain at this point.  

[Omegaraptor]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

One of my customers spent his career working in Saudi Arabia in the oil industry. The company policy wouldn’t stop work until temps reached 50C.  I figured it was a dry heat but turns out at certain times of the year the humidity there can be ridiculous. 

Dhahran, Saudi Arabia holds the world heat index record. It was 109°F with a dew point of 95°F, which leads to a 178°F heat index.

Doesn’t help that the Persian Gulf and Red Sea are some of the warmest bodies of water on the planet during NH summer. There’s an island in the Persian Gulf that gets 77-85°F dews year round or something like that.

[ShawniganLake]

2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Dhahran, Saudi Arabia holds the world heat index record. It was 109°F with a dew point of 95°F, which leads to a 178°F heat index.

Doesn’t help that the Persian Gulf and Red Sea are some of the warmest bodies of water on the planet during NH summer. There’s an island in the Persian Gulf that gets 77-85°F dews year round or something like that.

The heat index in Phil’s backyard is 179F right now. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

I would take DP’s in the 70’s over smoke any day. Both are uncomfortable, but only one is downright unhealthy to breathe.

[Phil]

25 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I’m sure Phil wants us to know that he has it so much worse where he lives. 

Because I do.

[GobBluth]

20 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

GFS screws us out of any rain later next week and its way more ridgy than the 00Z run at that time.   That would be pretty disappointing.    Even I would love a soaking rain at this point.  

There was very little model support for rain next week.

[mtep]

17 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Dhahran, Saudi Arabia holds the world heat index record. It was 109°F with a dew point of 95°F, which leads to a 178°F heat index.

Doesn’t help that the Persian Gulf and Red Sea are some of the warmest bodies of water on the planet during NH summer. There’s an island in the Persian Gulf that gets 77-85°F dews year round or something like that.

I actually went to high school in Dhahran! My parents worked for the oil company. Can confirm that that area is a living hell from april-october, winters were pleasant though. 

[AlTahoe]

9 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I would take DP’s in the 70’s over smoke any day. Both are uncomfortable, but only one is downright unhealthy to breathe.

We had weeks of AQI in the 300-800 range last year with a peak day of 1100. It felt like we were being poisoned. Headaches, lethargy, random asthma attacks. It was terrible. So yes DP's in the 70's would be much better. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

There is something to be said for having it look like we are living in a dystopian nightmare. That being said... the smoke has not been bad this summer. Nothing like 2021,2020, 2018, 2017, or 2015.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

There was very little model support for rain next week.

You would think at least one decent rain event would be on the horizon at this point.     Obviously not the start of the rainy season, but its pretty rare (at least up here) to go into late September without at least one meaningful rain event.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

There is something to be said for having it look like we are living in a dystopian nightmare. That being said... the smoke has not been bad this summer. Nothing like 2021,2020, 2018, 2017, or 2015 yet.

FTFY.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah the 12z GFS is disappointing. Gets there in lala land, though not much moisture associated with this trough. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

10 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

There was very little model support for rain next week.

You’ve got to admit that’s some pretty good acting though 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

You’ve got to admit that’s some pretty good acting though 

I am definitely acting... I wouldn't want a meaningful rain event to at least help enhance fall colors later on and reduce the threat of smoke.   At this rate the leaves are just going to turn brown and disappear.   It seems like that is already starting to happen. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

You’ve got to admit that’s some pretty good acting though 

Yeah, at most the models have been showing maybe 1/4-1/2" of rain at the very end of next week, with either a weak front washing out as it pulls through, or with some scattered showers. There has not been much ensemble support for widespread rain prior to the 20th. Seems pretty typical to me. We've been blessed by some early rains the past few Septembers, but historically it is pretty normal for this to be a dry month. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

12z GFS ensembles actually look pretty decent out through day 10. A tick or two colder than the operational much of the time but that’s sort of splitting hairs

[Rubus Leucodermis]

16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I am definitely acting... I wouldn't want a meaningful rain event to at least help enhance fall colors later on and reduce the threat of smoke.   At this rate the leaves are just going to turn brown and disappear.   It seems like that is already starting to happen. 

Payback for how good the fall colours were last year.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

13 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

12z GFS ensembles actually look pretty decent out through day 10. A tick or two colder than the operational much of the time but that’s sort of splitting hairs

Things have now degraded to the point where only one episode of extreme torching is considered “decent” because hey, at least the entire run didn’t torch, there’s still hope in clown range.

[Deweydog]

RIP Queen Liz. Hopefully this doesn’t delay the Euro.

[Chewbacca Defense]

Just saw Queen Elizabeth passed.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This might take Trump out of the news cycle for a minute or two. 

[TT-SEA]

37 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah, at most the models have been showing maybe 1/4-1/2" of rain at the very end of next week, with either a weak front washing out as it pulls through, or with some scattered showers. There has not been much ensemble support for widespread rain prior to the 20th. Seems pretty typical to me. We've been blessed by some early rains the past few Septembers, but historically it is pretty normal for this to be a dry month. 

Not typical up here.   The Cedar Lake station averages 5.20 inches of rain in September.   We have had almost none and there is nothing significant in sight.    Pretty rare here.

[Chewbacca Defense]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This might take Trump out of the news cycle for a minute or two. 

Nah he'll find a way to get right back in there.  He's a pro at that.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not typical up here.   The Cedar Lake station averages 5.20 inches of rain in September.   We have had almost none and there is nothing significant in sight.    Pretty rare here.

We average around 2.5", so not nothing, but still our 3rd driest month. Things ramp up quick in October with 6.2". 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This might take Trump out of the news cycle for a minute or two. 

The key phrase being “minute or two.”

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We average around 2.5", so not nothing, but still our 3rd driest month. Things ramp up quick in October with 6.2". 

Obviously its more common for systems to start bringing rain to western WA in September as the jet stream begins to sink south.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Big news up this way, for obvious reasons.

By the way, he won’t necessarily be Charles III. He can choose from any one of his four names.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-59135132

[BLI snowman]

27 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

RIP Queen Liz. Hopefully this doesn’t delay the Euro.

First new monarch since 1952. Excessively poor winter followed.

[Chewbacca Defense]

Smoke already moving into Whatcom County

 

https://nwcleanairwa.gov/webcam/

[Chewbacca Defense]

7 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Big news up this way, for obvious reasons.

By the way, he won’t necessarily be Charles III. He can choose from any one of his four names.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-59135132

My vote is for King Chuckles, but I probably stand alone with that.  Never been a fan of him...

[AlTahoe]

5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

First new monarch since 1952. Excessively poor winter followed.

Interesting as we had a good winter following the 1951-1952 winter which is the snowiest year in Tahoe. Usually the big snow years in Tahoe are followed up with duds. 

1951-1953 we had 795" total for a 397.5" season average. Normal season average is 190"

[SilverFallsAndrew]

19 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

First new monarch since 1952. Excessively poor winter followed.

January 1953 would be fun just for s*its and giggles. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF looks a little cooler again for early next week.

[ChrisEl Elyon]