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26 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

East wind noticeable now. Flags have switched to easterly from the McKenzie. Strong gradient to our east to push the flow over the cascades in a mountain wave event. Matter of time before temps spike. Already are to our north and east…

Was just 70º here at noon, but already starting to climb quickly. Was hoping both the smoke and the winds would stay aloft, but that's probably unrealistic.

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53 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Yeah I’m sure the smoke is a factor as well. I was kind of surprised how cool the wind felt. 

Yeah, I was just outside and the wind definitely has a cool feel to it.  The last couple of times we have dealt with this the winds felt like a blast furnace, and that's up here....I can't imagine how it felt at points further south.

 

Temp is up to 76 here.

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Anyone remember what the peak winds were at PDX in Sept 2020? PDX is already seeing 25 gusting 40mph.

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Cold Season 2022/23:

Total snowfall: 44"

Highest daily snowfall: 18"

Deepest snow depth: 16"

Coldest high: 8ºF

Coldest low: -7ºF

Number of subzero days: 6

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Really strong signal for Alaska troughing on the 12Z EPS in the long range.  This about as strong as it gets at 15 days out.  Hopefully the ECMWF is right and we get a big rain event in between.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-3977600 (1).png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, Kayla said:

Anyone remember what the peak winds were at PDX in Sept 2020? PDX is already seeing 25 gusting 40mph.

Already 40mph gusts? It hasn't been nearly that windy here yet and we usually get a stronger east wind. The WRF does show our wind peaking late tonight.

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3 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Anyone remember what the peak winds were at PDX in Sept 2020? PDX is already seeing 25 gusting 40mph.

I know they had a few gusts of 50+.

And there’s a good chance 40ish will be PDX’s top end. Even though the gradient steepens, the downslope component will shallow a bit.

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6 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Anyone remember what the peak winds were at PDX in Sept 2020? PDX is already seeing 25 gusting 40mph.

36g52 if I recall correctly, I-205 Bridge gusted to 60.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

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3 minutes ago, JBolin said:

50+mph with occasional gusts over 60

Just looked it up. They actually only peaked at 52mph.

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Cold Season 2022/23:

Total snowfall: 44"

Highest daily snowfall: 18"

Deepest snow depth: 16"

Coldest high: 8ºF

Coldest low: -7ºF

Number of subzero days: 6

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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54 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

Was just 70º here at noon, but already starting to climb quickly. Was hoping both the smoke and the winds would stay aloft, but that's probably unrealistic.

Things are deteriorating pretty quickly on the east side of town where the divide between the Willamette and McKenzie rivers is. Sun is heating the surface as the smoke thickens and begins to also surface. If the fire explodes tonight then we will probly have an ash storm.

Fuckk this shitt!!

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 4F (Dec 1, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 13 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 0.5"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 0

 

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21 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Sounds like Packwood might be under the gun.

A fire that started a month ago too...

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Sun becoming further obscured and ash starting to fall…

Our kids won’t know what it’s like to live in a place here that isn’t threatened by fires every year.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 4F (Dec 1, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 13 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 0.5"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 0

 

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68F, but the smoke is getting kind of mediocre.  I think the smoke will keep temps down.  Here is the forecast for the next few days.  They are expecting the worst of this to be done by Monday. 

If we are lucky, the smoke that blows offshore is just is pushed further out into the Pacific and never comes back. Better than blowing back onshore into our faces.

 

1219199781_ScreenShot2022-09-09at2_23_19PM.thumb.png.5b7baa2d72458a8c8646d59ba94781f3.png2065509146_ScreenShot2022-09-09at2_25_31PM.thumb.png.4f00a2e9328347d47db8c82fd6c88ebd.png752439409_ScreenShot2022-09-09at2_25_38PM.thumb.png.c856c82e0c337ae2a7fac69db38fd4e6.png789093928_ScreenShot2022-09-09at2_25_41PM.thumb.png.b8b3224262e6913ec7f81138373ba703.png

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Really strong signal for Alaska troughing on the 12Z EPS in the long range.  This about as strong as it gets at 15 days out.  Hopefully the ECMWF is right and we get a big rain event in between.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-3977600 (1).png

Not gonna get too worked up about something 15 days out in a model run.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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22 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Sun becoming further obscured and ash starting to fall…

Our kids won’t know what it’s like to live in a place here that isn’t threatened by fires every year.

Don’t look now (or, rather, do) but I think KEUG just scored another touchdown.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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17 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Not gonna get too worked up about something 15 days out in a model run.

Neither am I.   

Just noting an unusually strong long range signal on the EPS. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Smoke is thinning and clearing here now as the back edge of the main wave of smoke that moved in from eastern WA overnight continues to move west.  

Unfortunately all the smoke moving westward today is going to come back eastward when onshore flow returns later in the weekend.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Today is running WAY cooler than forecast thanks to the smoke and winds. Highly doubt now SEA will even get to 80. Smoke is expected to be thicker tomorrow, so it looks like the 90 won’t happen. 

In theory... tomorrow could be better in the Seattle area with an east wind because there are no major fires directly to our east.   Its clearing out here from east to west and I can see the Cascades again.   Of course that could change quickly.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

In theory... tomorrow could be better in the Seattle area with an east wind because there are no major fires directly to our east.   Its clearing out here from east to west and I can see the Cascades again.   Of course that could change quickly.  

I guess it could be warmer at SEA. We’ll see. 

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24 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Today is running WAY cooler than forecast thanks to the smoke and winds. Highly doubt now SEA will even get to 80. Smoke is expected to be thicker tomorrow, so it looks like the 90 won’t happen. 

Yea only 78 here right now. I guess the smoke is a blessing for now. 

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Wow, almost dark outside now at 3:20 p.m. That is one thick smoke deck. Fortunately not mixing down much as yet. Wind is calm. Just 84º thanks to the smoke and limited mixing. Only 1.5 hours before the power is supposed to be shut off.

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And tack on another one…

FCB2CCF4-50AF-430A-8A9A-7E4B57C9260C.jpeg

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 4F (Dec 1, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 13 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 0.5"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 0

 

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38 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Smoke is thinning and clearing here now as the back edge of the main wave of smoke that moved in from eastern WA overnight continues to move west.  

Unfortunately all the smoke moving westward today is going to come back eastward when onshore flow returns later in the weekend.

Shockingly Winthrop totally clear now of smoke. Leavenworth suddenly improving. Maybe will get lucky tomorrow. 

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17 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

Wow, almost dark outside now at 3:20 p.m. That is one thick smoke deck. Fortunately not mixing down much as yet. Wind is calm. Just 84º thanks to the smoke and limited mixing. Only 1.5 hours before the power is supposed to be shut off.

Is this for all of EWEB and SUB?

Starting to feel like we live on another planet 😔

Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 4F (Dec 1, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 13 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 0.5"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 0

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @363jerseys4hope

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18z GFS has a convective outbreak Monday, centered over the Sound. Flow is vertically oriented to the SSW and PWAT's are above 1" w/ deep tropical moisture entrenched in the prevailing winds, so fire starts are less of a concern. RGEM concurs.

I know I sound like a broken record, but it really does have shades of 9/7/19, albeit with weaker diffluence aloft and a more closed off low offshore. The latter of the differences may be neither a good or a bad thing, just a notable difference.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 48"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 2.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 1.5”; December 3rd, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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23 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

Wow, almost dark outside now at 3:20 p.m. That is one thick smoke deck. Fortunately not mixing down much as yet. Wind is calm. Just 84º thanks to the smoke and limited mixing. Only 1.5 hours before the power is supposed to be shut off.

That's one absurdly thick smoke plume. The sky is milky white up here but we're lucky compared to most of the region.

G2ghuOM.png

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