PNW September 2022 Wx Obs/Disc

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, Cloud said:

For SEA? It's forecasting 84 tomorrow.... not 91? 

Close to 90°F at SeaTac, though.

[TT-SEA]

Interestingly... on Saturday the models show a solid marine layer again through the morning and then clearing.   But there is not a warm air mass overhead that so the GFS will do much better.   The ECMWF shows 77 and the GFS shows 79 so they almost agree at this point so there really can't be a clear winner that day.

[Doinko]

[Cloud]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

If you lived here it would be more obvious to you when there will be model issues.   The days when all the models will bust too warm is days with a solid marine layer that hangs on until at least noon and then slowly clears.   Its much easier for the models to handle all day clouds or all day sunshine.   Timing of clearing is everything on days like today.   Today was a guaranteed failure for the GFS.    

For tomorrow... the 12Z ECMWF showed 80 and the 00Z GFS shows 88.    The ECMWF handles marine layer clouds almost perfectly and it shows some low clouds into the Seattle area tomorrow morning and then clearing quickly.  Much quicker than today.   But still... onshore flow will be increasing during the day so I would lean slightly towards the ECMWF tomorrow.    Probably 82 or 83.

Marine layer is advancing a bit later tonight compared to last, but it is making its away in and down from the Strait... Probably also means won't be as thick tomorrow and  faster to burn off. Could be a couple degrees warmer than today, which would be right on point with the Euro's forecast. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Doiinko said:

Fall might be here... but summer weather might not be done. 

[Front Ranger]

51 minutes ago, Phil said:

14 degree miss inside 24hrs is insane. That 2024 GFS upgrade can’t come soon enough.

Are we sure it will be an upgrade?

[Cloud]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

Are we sure it will be an upgrade?

We assumed it on its last upgrade didn't we? 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

Marine layer is advancing a bit later tonight compared to last, but it is making its away in and down from the Strait... Probably also means won't be as thick tomorrow and  faster to burn off. Could be a couple degrees warmer than today, which would be right on point with the Euro's forecast. 

Much slower... and also moving more north to south than to the east.     But will probably form in place around Seattle later.  

Here is the ECMWF cloud map for 8 a.m. and 11 a.m. tomorrow:

 

 

[GobBluth]

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Are we sure it will be an upgrade?

How can they improve on perfection?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

The GFS will always be right when it shows an Arctic & snow event down to southern Oregon.

[Cloud]

In all seriousness though, I feel like the best approach to improving the GFS is to privatize or become independent like the Euro and take it out of the government's hand. But this would also means  funding issue. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

In all seriousness though, I feel like the best approach to improving the GFS is to privatize or become independent like the Euro and take it out of the government's hand. But this would also means  funding issue. 

I'm surprised Amazon, google etc haven't started their own paid weather model services yet. All the oligarchs at the tippy top could argue over whose model scores better.

[FroYoBro]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Fall might be here... but summer weather might not be done. 

Any thoughts on this Dewey?

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Any thoughts on this Dewey?

Hopefully nature is trying to pay us back for stealing spring this year.  

[Deweydog]

18 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Any thoughts on this Dewey?

Summer is over and will return in approximately 272 days.

[TT-SEA]

00Z GEFS actually trended a little more troughy next weekend... so definitely not in agreement with the operational run.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Close to 90°F at SeaTac, though.

I was talking about today anyway.  Last night's GFS was going 91 for SEA today (Thursday), and the high was 77.  What  a joke.  I can literally tell when it's way high just based on the 500mb level.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I'm surprised Amazon, google etc haven't started their own paid weather model services yet. All the oligarchs at the tippy top could argue over whose model scores better.

No way I would pay for weather on a site like that.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I was talking about today anyway.  Last night's GFS was going 91 for SEA today (Thursday), and the high was 77.  What  a joke.  I can literally tell when it's way high just based on the 500mb level.

The high was actually 78... but whatever. 

The issue is marine layer clearing.   You can tell when the GFS will have issues when the ECMWF shows a solid marine layer and the GFS does not.    

Will you be this vocal about the GFS shortcomings when its always too cold with temps this winter.   Probably not.   But it has issues on both ends... its generally too extreme.  

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Cloud said:

In all seriousness though, I feel like the best approach to improving the GFS is to privatize or become independent like the Euro and take it out of the government's hand. But this would also means  funding issue. 

I have often wondered why we are actually more "socialized" with our weather models than Europe is.  With everything else it's the other way around.  In this case I think the government doing it might be better.  A lot more of the data is free that way.

That having been said I think the current version of the GFS is a turd sandwich.  They should have never released it.  The previous version seemed better to me.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

The high was actually 78... but whatever. 

The issue is marine layer clearing.   You can tell when the GFS will have issues when the ECMWF shows a solid marine layer and the GFS does not.    

Will you be this vocal about the GFS shortcomings when its always too cold with temps this winter.   Probably not.   But it has issues on both ends... its generally too extreme.  

This version isn't cold biased very often.  I remember in the old MRF days the models were always cold biased.  Now they have gone too far the other way.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

This version isn't cold biased very often.  I remember in the old MRF days the models were always cold biased.  Now they have gone too far the other way.

It can be comically bad in the cold direction as well.    That even happened a few days in this warm summer for highs and lows.  And it certainly happens in the cold season.   

[Cloud]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The high was actually 78... but whatever. 

The issue is marine layer clearing.   You can tell when the GFS will have issues when the ECMWF shows a solid marine layer and the GFS does not.    

Will you be this vocal about the GFS shortcomings when its always too cold with temps this winter.   Probably not.   But it has issues on both ends... its generally too extreme.  

I wonder if this will get adjusted tomorrow. The 5pm update was 77 and the 11pm update was 79 on its 6-h max obs. 

The 79 happened around 6PM. 

Then what's being recorded in the daily climate report is a maximum of 78. 

[TT-SEA]

And there are many days when the GFS out performs the ECMWF.     Those never get mentioned.    

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

I wonder if this will get adjusted tomorrow. The 5pm update was 77 and the 11pm update was 79 on its 6-h max obs. 

The 79 happened around 6PM. 

Then what's being recorded in the daily climate report is a maximum of 78. 

Yep... picked up another degree.   The high at SEA was 79.   It will be updated in the morning.  

[Deweydog]

The high today in Olympia was 84.

[snow_wizard]

11 minutes ago, Cloud said:

I wonder if this will get adjusted tomorrow. The 5pm update was 77 and the 11pm update was 79 on its 6-h max obs. 

The 79 happened around 6PM. 

Then what's being recorded in the daily climate report is a maximum of 78. 

That 79 seems suspicious.  No 78 shown in any obs around that time.  Basically 77, 77, 77, 79, 79 ,79, 77, 77, 77

[The Blob]

1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I'm surprised Amazon, google etc haven't started their own paid weather model services yet. All the oligarchs at the tippy top could argue over whose model scores better.

Shhh.... Daddy Bezos will be all over it once he's done with his robot vacuum army.

[Cloud]

20 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I have often wondered why we are actually more "socialized" with our weather models than Europe is.  With everything else it's the other way around.  In this case I think the government doing it might be better.  A lot more of the data is free that way.

That having been said I think the current version of the GFS is a turd sandwich.  They should have never released it.  The previous version seemed better to me.

I would say that this is the one upside to having it being ran by the government... the NWS across the country on social media is quite active and this actually allows for people to be quite engaged. Which is a very good thing. But at the same time, we have to be careful with the free data given to us as well, I've seen it getting blown out of proportion, especially during the winter time. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That 79 seems suspicious.  No 78 shown in any obs around that time.  Basically 77, 77, 77, 79, 79 ,79, 77, 77, 77

You mean the 78 seems suspicious?    The inter-hourly observations are not reliable as been discussed many times.   But they do capture the actual high and low temp every 6 hours.   I am almost certain it will show 79 tomorrow because of the 11 p.m. update with the high temp since 5 p.m. being 79.

[Meatyorologist]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That 79 seems suspicious.  No 78 shown in any obs around that time.  Basically 77, 77, 77, 79, 79 ,79, 77, 77, 77

Celsius rounding.

[Cloud]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That 79 seems suspicious.  No 78 shown in any obs around that time.  Basically 77, 77, 77, 79, 79 ,79, 77, 77, 77

We all know the red number being shown here on the 6-h obs is what matters.. so as suspicious as it may seems, it's official. 

Also, the daily climate report that was updated at 6:19 showed a maximum of 78. That definitely got rounded up. 

[TT-SEA]

The ECMWF insists that little trough on Tuesday night and Wednesday is almost devoid of low clouds even on the coast.   Looks sunny both Tuesday and Wednesday.    

Here is Wednesday afternoon...

[TT-SEA]

This does not look good for Cabo on Thursday...

[Doinko]

32 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This version isn't cold biased very often.  I remember in the old MRF days the models were always cold biased.  Now they have gone too far the other way.

I think the version in January 2020 was an older version (I think they upgraded in 2021?) but I'm not sure what was with the GFS during that month lol 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

I think the version in January 2020 was an older version (I think they upgraded in 2021?) but I'm not sure what was with the GFS during that month lol 

 

Actual high at PDX on 1/15/20 was 42.    Just 32 degrees too cold there.   

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 

Actual high at PDX on 1/15/20 was 42.    Just 32 degrees too cold there.   

It was just showing your average Arctic blast with 8 days with lows in the single digits...

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 

Actual high at PDX on 1/15/20 was 42.    Just 32 degrees too cold there.   

In Jim’s defense, that is a little different. What happened today is a very short term anomaly due to a complete misunderstanding of low level conditions. January 2020 was a protracted shift warmer on a macro level, although anyone with brain one would know the 10 degree max temps were probably also off by at least 10 degrees.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

In Jim’s defense, that is a little different. What happened today is a very short term anomaly due to a complete misunderstanding of low level conditions. January 2020 was a protracted shift warmer on a macro level, although anyone with brain one would know the 10 degree max temps were probably also off by at least 10 degrees.

Yeah I didn't mean to argue with his point I just wanted to point out the extreme temps it was showing lol

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Yeah I didn't mean to argue with his point I just wanted to point out the extreme temps it was showing lol

They were pretty ridiculous. I believe it also pretty consistently showed temps in the mid teens for the February 2021 event.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

In Jim’s defense, that is a little different. What happened today is a very short term anomaly due to a complete misunderstanding of low level conditions. January 2020 was a protracted shift warmer on a macro level, although anyone with brain one would know the 10 degree max temps were probably also off by at least 10 degrees.

Yeah... all the models shifted way warmer in the lead up to that event.    Randy still did good though.   And that is all that really matters!  

[TT-SEA]

The 00Z ECMWF is most definitely not in agreement with the GFS and GEM for next weekend.   

[TT-SEA]

Of course... a week ago the ECMWF was showing a massive rain event beginning tomorrow morning for a large part of western WA and SW BC.    

[snow_wizard]

Pretty ECMWF run tonight.

[snow_wizard]

Solid improvement on the EPS with PNA going decently negative.

[Cloud]

So Danielle formed in the Atlantic…. Just as the calendar flipped to Sept. 1.  She really waited until Aug. ended to upgrade to a TS.  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Solid improvement on the EPS with PNA going decently negative.

Would rather this happen from late Nov-Feb.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Seems like a mild night AC hasn’t clicked off once. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Still 57F here so a bit warmer than last night.

[GobBluth]

06 looks nothing like the 00 goof.