PNW September 2022 Wx Obs/Disc

[ChrisEl Elyon]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Models are strongly hinting at an abnormal cool period somewhere around day 10.  Something to watch for sure.

The 12z GFS, 18z GFS, and 12z ECMWF (extrapolated) all show it.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Not sure what to make of him anymore.

He's a good guy, I truly believe that, he's just frustrated. What's happened these recent years has been tough. 

[ChrisEl Elyon]

Morecast Forecast 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Jesse downvoted this, so I assume that means he is rooting for more heat? 

Or perhaps Tim hacked his account.

[Phil]

Meanwhile Earl could be a category-4 storm above 40N latitude, which is unheard of.

One of these years a big one like this is going to slam the NE.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Or perhaps Tim hacked his account.

That would be pretty funny. 

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

He's a good guy, I truly believe that, he's just frustrated. What's happened these recent years has been tough. 

You're probably right.  I feel like I've been kicked a few times where it hurts as well.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Meanwhile Earl could be a category-4 storm above 40N latitude, which is unheard of.

One of these years a big one like this is going to slam the NE.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gw7gNf_9njs

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Meanwhile Earl could be a category-4 storm above 40N latitude, which is unheard of.

One of these years a big one like this is going to slam the NE.

Something had to give over the Atlantic.  This season has been so dead so far.

[Meatyorologist]

19 minutes ago, Phil said:

Thank god for thunderstorms, otherwise I’d go clinically insane during the summer doldrums.

Rub it in more why don't you?

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Meanwhile Earl could be a category-4 storm above 40N latitude, which is unheard of.

One of these years a big one like this is going to slam the NE.

Super quiet hurricane season and then a Cat 4 so far North?

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Something had to give over the Atlantic.  This season has been so dead so far.

It’s still dead even with Earl. Will need a lot of storms to catch to climo let alone the bullish forecasts.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z isn't great if you want rain.

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Super quiet hurricane season and then a Cat 4 so far North?

Strange year. Some theorize that a warm subtropical Atlantic robs lift from the deep tropics, stunting development. Because unlike the NE Pacific, the western NATL waters are actually warm enough to develop/sustain tropical systems.

I also think some of the pre-satellite era storms were underestimated. The 1938 long island express hurricane produced a gust of 186mph in at the Blue Hill Observatory in Massachusetts, for example, which isn’t something you’d typically see in a category-3 storm.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Strange year. Some theorize that a warm subtropical Atlantic robs lift from the deep tropics, stunting development. Because unlike the NE Pacific, the western NATL waters are actually warm enough to develop/sustain tropical systems.

I also think some of the pre-satellite era storms were underestimated. The 1938 long island express hurricane produced a gust of 186mph in at the Blue Hill Observatory in Massachusetts, for example, which isn’t something you’d typically see in a category-3 storm.

My adopted brother's grandfather lived through that 1938 storm. Good stories, let me tell you. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

37 minutes ago, Phil said:

Thank god for thunderstorms, otherwise I’d go clinically insane during the summer doldrums.

Thank god the dew points are in the fifties again. Muggy days with 60+ dews are so oppressive.

[ChrisEl Elyon]

68-75° temp range around the Puget Sound Region so far today

[Cloud]

31 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Jesse downvoted this, so I assume that means he is rooting for more heat? 

Jesse downvoted because it's probably gonna get jinxed once Jim gets in on the action. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Jesse downvoted because it's probably gonna get jinxed once Jim gets in on the action. 

Well yes... That is true. 

[Phil]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

My adopted brother's grandfather lived through that 1938 storm. Good stories, let me tell you. 

Good chance we see a repeat during our lifetimes. Statistically due for the next one any year now.

https://www.hurricaneville.com/1938_hurricane.html

[ChrisEl Elyon]

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2022/09/wildfire-smoke-alert-for-western.html?m=1

[Phil]

This area hasn’t experienced a bonafide major hurricane since the 1500s. There was another one back during the medieval warm period that carved many of the Chesapeake inlets that still exist today.

Hazel produced 100mph winds here but it made landfall way down in SC and wasn’t fully tropical by the time it got here. The next *real* one will absolutely destroy the trees, as they aren’t accustomed to S/SE winds.

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Time for BAndrew round 2?

I missed what prompted round 1 

[Front Ranger]

58 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Models keep cutting back totals for socal.

I feel like this almost always happens when tropical storms venture near there.

[Phil]

Tim hasn’t posted about the 18z GFS. Must be a troughy run.

Edit: Indeed it is.

[TT-SEA]

No sign of smoke or haze here yet... we will see what tomorrow brings.

[Cloud]

I don’t know why but this is very ominous. Is this year’s summer really going to burn us on its way out? Red flag for most areas. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I missed what prompted round 1 

It was certainly worse than negative comments about the British Royal family. I took responsibility and did my time. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Tim hasn’t posted about the 18z GFS. Must be a troughy run.

Edit: Indeed it is.

Some people don't want me to post about the models but you constantly goad me into posting about the models!

18Z showed almost no rain through day 10.  That is all I saw.   I don't care what it does after that because the next run will be totally different anyways.    I go by the EPS in the long range.

[Front Ranger]

14 minutes ago, Phil said:

This area hasn’t experienced a bonafide major hurricane since the 1500s. There was another one back during the medieval warm period that carved many of the Chesapeake inlets that still exist today.

Hazel produced 100mph winds here but it made landfall way down in SC and wasn’t fully tropical by the time it got here. The next *real* one will absolutely destroy the trees, as they aren’t accustomed to S/SE winds.

I imagine mainly because it's difficult to approach your area without going over land?

[Cloud]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Some people don't want me to post about the models but you constantly goad me into posting about the models!

18Z showed almost no rain through day 10.  That is all I saw.   I don't care what it does after that because the next run will be totally different anyways.    I go by the EPS in the long range.

So that’s it now eh? Just looking for rain? No more ridgy ridgy, warmy  warmy maps?!!

[TT-SEA]

New ECMWF weeklies updated today... seems like the troughing in Alaska is going to continue.   Not sure about anywhere else. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

So that’s it now eh? Just looking for rain? No more ridgy ridgy, warmy  warmy maps?!!

No idea... whatever the models show.   I also post lots of rainfall maps.    And soon will be posting snow maps!  

[Cloud]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

No idea... whatever the models show.   I also post lots of rainfall maps.    And soon will be posting snow maps!  

I know I’m just giving you a hard time for the heck of it.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

I know I’m just giving you a hard time for the heck of it.

I know... all good.   When are you leaving on your trip?

 

[Cloud]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I know... all good.   When are you leaving on your trip?

 

9/13.

[Doinko]

Quote

First off, a highly anomalous wind event is expected beginning as early as mid-morning Friday morning as cold air settles east of the Cascades to drive a 16mb to 19mb North Bend to Spokane surface pressure difference. The Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) continues to highlight large areas of values greater than 0.95 along the Cascades, with embedded values greater than 0.99 indicating the event is nearly outside of the 20-year model climate for wind speed. Forecast soundings from the NAM continue to suggest sustained wind speeds of around 50 kt in the roughly 2-5kft layer, while the GFS and RAP remain weaker. The gradient alone, however, would suggest the NAM is closer to reality, and hence gust potential, should efficient mixing of these winds to the surface manifest, will be at least within the 50-55mph range. Forecast soundings continue to suggest that it will be difficult to mix these winds to the surface most everywhere, which is good news. Unfortunately, however, exposed ridges in the Cascades and Coast Range will be within the layer of strongest winds, and the channeling effect of the Columbia River Gorge will force more intense near-surface winds there than elsewhere. Thus, these locations will be favored for intense winds which will likely peak only a little bit shy of their max intensity during the Labor Day 2020 east wind event. Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning is looking to be the period of strongest winds for those areas of greatest concern.

NWS Portland AFD

[Winterdog]

3 hours ago, MossMan said:

Wow! I had a low of 54 and it was still 59 at 4:30am when I let the dogs out with fairly a fairly strong wind blowing! 
Currently 68. 

Totally calm here of course.  Sometimes it pays to be at a lower elevation.  Arlington's low was 45.

[ChrisEl Elyon]

41° low this morning in Olympia

[Phil]

38 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I imagine mainly because it's difficult to approach your area without going over land?

Correct, landfall needs to be in NC/VA or through the mouth of the Chesapeake, then continue W/NW instead of N/NE. It also has to pass just to the W/SW of the area, and the storm has to be moving…if it stalls out or tracks east, winds will be much weaker locally.

Long story short, it requires a *lot* of special upper level circumstances to get a cat-3 or higher storm in here. The return period is something like 1 every 500 years.

But in the extremely rare cases when the ingredients come together, there’s more than enough warm, shallow water and marshland to maintain them.