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4 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

That is one healthy fire.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm surprised the east wind hasn't surfaced there.  If it doesn't you may end up with very suppressed temps today.

There is also a huge smoke plume nearing Portland right now that may keep them down today as well.

There is a SE component to the wind now in the foothills.    His area is very protected there in a deep valley. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm surprised the east wind hasn't surfaced there.  If it doesn't you may end up with very suppressed temps today.

There is also a huge smoke plume nearing Portland right now that may keep them down today as well.

I'm just thankful that all our fire resources in the area are available for this. We have a lot of great people in Sky Valley and they're converging on Beckler River now.

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5 hours ago, Kayla said:

00z EPS agrees with the operational on that trough dropping in on days 9 and 10. Operational and EPS show Bozeman getting a decent amount of remnant moisture from Kay later this upcoming week. Then possibly even some snow with that deep trough on day 10 as well. Fall has arrived!

And yes Tim, we know it shows ridging on days 12-15 but it keeps getting pushed back so stop peeing in everyones cereal.

Screen Shot 2022-09-10 at 12.15.36 PM.png

Looks like some definite fall weather is near.  Heights actually go below normal here in about 3 days.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

There is a SE component to the wind now in the foothills.    His area is very protected there in a deep valley. 

Indeed. We have a nice amount of shielding from 5-7k foot mountains to my north, south and east. Makes the wind act a bit more abnormally than some other areas. 

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

There is a SE component to the wind now in the foothills.    His area is very protected there in a deep valley. 

Yeah...I've seen good straight easterly winds there, but the southerly component probably blocks them.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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3 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

I'm just thankful that all our fire resources in the area are available for this. We have a lot of great people in Sky Valley and they're converging on Beckler River now.

They have their work cut out for them with the wind.  You can see how strong it is on the sat loop.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Yeah, that Skykomish Fire does not look good. Looks like it's burning in the Wild Sky Wilderness Area between Index and Skykomish near Baring Peak. That's a really cool area so I hope it doesn't do too much damage, let alone make it into the houses and towns near there.

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.24 (2010)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 5.8"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5"

2021-22: 21.75" (12/24: Tr, 12/25: 5", 12/26: 3", 12/27: 1.5", 12/28: Tr, 12/29: 1", 12/30: 3", 1/5: 2.5", 1/6: 1", 2/2: Tr, 2/21: 1.5", 2/22: 0.75", 2/23: 1.5", 2/24: 1")

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12Z GFS took away quite a bit of the rain for next weekend that the 00Z and 06Z runs showed.    But it still shows much cooler conditions.

 

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-precip_3hr_inch-1662811200-1663200000-1663675200-10.gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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And then you have the 12Z GEM going in an entirely different direction next weekend.  Its way more ridgy than its 00Z run showed.    Model chaos continues.

 

gem-all-namer-z500_anom-3502400.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Currently 60F in Everett.

Worst air quality the region's had this year out there.  Smoke has permeated the low level in most areas.  Conditions degraded in all of western Washington and western Oregon.  Tri-Cities, Wenatchee, Yakima, Spokane all declined.  

 

The few good spots are along the eastern side of the Cascade crest of WA and OR.  The Olympic Peninsula, and San Juans.

 

 

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The 12Z GFS goes insane with that Alaskan trough after day 10... just crazy but still in fantasy land of course.  

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-3912800 (1).png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Looks like the Skykomish fire just had a major explosion   Smoke shot much higher into the atmosphere.  The smoke plume from OR almost has a poor man's 2020 look to it.  Major smoke going out over the ocean which will later move inland further north.  At this point it appears Seattle is going to get smoke from that fire.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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15 minutes ago, andrewr said:

I've got a couple properties in Packwood and am obviously watching the Goat Rocks fire closely. How much longer until the east winds subside in the area? Thanks in advance!

The east winds are supposed to get a lot lighter later today.  Should completely go away by tomorrow morning.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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There was (I hope I can say that and be correct) a small fire on the way to Lake Crescent yesterday evening, shortly before 104 meets 101 in Jefferson County. Smoky skies here now, but thankfully it seems to be in the mostly mid- and upper-levels.

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D09260B4-22E9-4984-805E-8CFEDB70D7D8.jpeg

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I can feel the snap in the air already!

1663567200-d0K9X1dZg68.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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20 minutes ago, andrewr said:

I've got a couple properties in Packwood and am obviously watching the Goat Rocks fire closely. How much longer until the east winds subside in the area? Thanks in advance!

That fire seems much less explosive today... the wind angle must have shifted and there is less wind in that area compared to yesterday.   The complete opposite of what is happening to the north in Skykomish.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I can feel the snap in the air already!

1663567200-d0K9X1dZg68.png

And then a few days later on the 12Z GFS... the models are just all over the place.    Way worse than usual.

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-4085600.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Expect this smoke to linger into Monday everyone, even longer for the eastern half of our respective states.  It won't go away as fast as the "experts" think.

Here are some key air monitoring stations throughout the region.  Despite the ugly skies, it isn't as bad in some areas yet thankfully.  Expect smoke to get worse till the afternoon hours, then it will stagnant, and slowly "improve."

 

wasmoke0910.jpg

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Screen Shot 2022-09-10 at 10.05.03 AM.png

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

And then a few days later on the 12Z GFS...

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-4085600.png

Hour 354...haha that's cute.

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Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 119.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16"

Highest snow depth: 20"

Coldest high: -5ºF

Coldest low: -25ºF

Number of subzero days: 1

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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6 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Hour 354...haha that's cute.

Yeah... just some crazy extremes on the 12Z GFS that probably don't mean anything.   Although the 12Z GEM does show ridging already by next weekend.    No idea if that means anything.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I can see the top of the Skykomish fire from here behind Mt Si... but its all blowing off to the WNW with blue sky overhead.  

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I can see the top of the Skykomish fire from here behind Mt Si... but its all blowing off to the WNW with blue sky overhead here.   

Looks like that plume is heading right for us on southern Vancouver Island.  Gonna be a tough fight for them today. Thankfully the winds will die later. 

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The Canadian ensemble mean does not agree with its operational run for next weekend... GEM is just out to lunch as usual.

cmc-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-3459200.png

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  • Longtimer

Very Smokey this morning. Looks like a marine layer morning. Only 68 currently. No wind 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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51 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

And then you have the 12Z GEM going in an entirely different direction next weekend.  Its way more ridgy than its 00Z run showed.    Model chaos continues.

 

gem-all-namer-z500_anom-3502400.png

That does not look like a real solution, visually speaking. The needle could be thread but it's a tenuous, weird setup.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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15 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Expect this smoke to linger into Monday everyone, even longer for the eastern half of our respective states.  It won't go away as fast as the "experts" think.

Here are some key air monitoring stations throughout the region.  Despite the ugly skies, it isn't as bad in some areas yet thankfully.  Expect smoke to get worse till the afternoon hours, then it will stagnant, and slowly "improve."

 

wasmoke0910.jpg

Screen Shot 2022-09-10 at 10.03.29 AM.png

Screen Shot 2022-09-10 at 10.01.57 AM.png

Screen Shot 2022-09-10 at 10.02.21 AM.png

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Screen Shot 2022-09-10 at 10.03.13 AM.png

Screen Shot 2022-09-10 at 10.03.48 AM.png

Screen Shot 2022-09-10 at 10.04.18 AM.png

Screen Shot 2022-09-10 at 10.04.45 AM.png

Screen Shot 2022-09-10 at 10.05.03 AM.png

AQI is close to 200 here and the sun disappeared as the smoke plume from the Skykomish fire reached us.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.24 (2010)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 5.8"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5"

2021-22: 21.75" (12/24: Tr, 12/25: 5", 12/26: 3", 12/27: 1.5", 12/28: Tr, 12/29: 1", 12/30: 3", 1/5: 2.5", 1/6: 1", 2/2: Tr, 2/21: 1.5", 2/22: 0.75", 2/23: 1.5", 2/24: 1")

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19 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Little smoky at crater lake but still amazing views. Thicker smoke to the north and south currently. Was looking at the satellite and man it looks bad in the willamette valley and north of Seattle. 

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A criminally underrated park outside the PNW. You'd be amazed at the number of people I meet who've never heard of it.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

That does not look like a real solution, visually speaking. The needle could be thread but it's a tenuous, weird setup.

Doesn't have anything even close to support from its own ensemble either.   Safe to say it won't happen.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, Front Ranger said:

A criminally underrated park outside the PNW. You'd be amazed at the number of people I meet who've never heard of it.

Considering it's inaccessible for nearly three quarters of the year, that's not so surprising.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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2 hours ago, MossMan said:

Sky isn’t bad. But the smell is super strong! 
Low of 53. Currently 57. 

8768DFE8-8F00-4604-A8B0-7CC371FD2CDF.jpeg

Must look very different now... that plume has enveloped your area.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Fair point... although summer is the period when most people visit national parks anyway.

that is also true, not a super big disadvantage then. same could be said about the sierra natl parks

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

A few pics from out trip.  The building structure is the highest fire lookout in North America I hiked up to, fairview peak in Colorado.  That was tough to do at 13k feet 5 days after my surgery haha. The lake is goose lake near cooke city Montana .

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Epic country! I remember scenes like that from Colorado.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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