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11 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

12z EPS vs 18z GEFS only 6 days out. does anyone have any thoughts about which model suite is the superior model we should lean towards here? I don’t think I’ve seen it discussed much. 🤔🤔🤔🤔

 

5573A935-0D0D-4873-85BA-B2FA427FFDB9.png

A879047B-98E4-499E-89F0-BFDC3A967A34.png

EPS has been proven to be the best.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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  • Longtimer

PDX didn’t even hit 80. Wow

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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29 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

Looks a smidge better in my area but east wind is returning.

 

Here is some insane footage from a couple hikers that were stuck on Baring yesterday:

https://youtu.be/5TNgosDVps8

Any east wind should be short lived.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

PDX didn’t even hit 80. Wow

The combination of smoke and unexpected cloud cover kept temps way below forecast in many areas.  Nice to have one go our way for a change.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Geeze.  The ECMWF takes the PNA down to -4 and the GFS and GEFS only go around -1.5.  Even the EPS is -3 next weekend.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The combination of smoke and unexpected cloud cover kept temps way below forecast in many areas.  Nice to have one go our way for a change.

kind of a pyrrhic victory if we're underperforming because of wildfire smoke

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Down to 77F here. Still smokey of course but at least this is happening later in the year when we don't have to have A/C running constantly.

Does anyone have experience using an anemometer (particularly one that won't attract lightning as we get a fair amount of summer convection here)? I have a weather station, a cocorahs rain gauge which isn't used often, and a snowboard but I'm looking for something else to measure. I'm not interested in SWE water content- too much work.

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Made some new friends down here in Bend.

Not too smokey at the moment but we’ll see what tomorrow brings. Was crazy smokey around Camp Sherman but then almost clear in Sisters. There was a really sharp edge to it.  This was about 3:30.  

C23047A0-8F60-42A8-9603-5AFE3037A22F.jpeg

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image.png.77e3b6842767568e9f1a4de41f2a2e9e.png
Some showers on the radar right now. I know it's not likely but I'm hoping for another rumble of thunder. I was not expecting the super loud one earlier today!

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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14 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Made some new friends down here in Bend.

Not too smokey at the moment but we’ll see what tomorrow brings. Was crazy smokey around Camp Sherman but then almost clear in Sisters. There was a really sharp edge to it.  This was about 3:30.  

C23047A0-8F60-42A8-9603-5AFE3037A22F.jpeg

Probably drove by you on my way back home today. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-64

Coldest min-48

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Wet season rainfall-0.00”

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Hmmmm....The 18z EPS is even deeper with the trough at day 6 than the 12z run was.

1663437600-bOy1eWl4hSk.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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8 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Climate change plus the consequences of 150 years of fire suppression on a naturally fire-prone landscape. As Tim posted earlier: https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1112839109

Like it or not, an annual smoke season is here to stay.

Like in 2019? 

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Any speculation on why the models so totally missed most of the clouds and pretty much all of the rain today / tonight?  I'm thinking it has something to do with the basic fact it's almost unheard of for us to get moisture here from an old Baja Hurricane.

I read something today about the incredible lack of action over the Atlantic this season.  One article stated there have been at least 8 weird things about this season so far.  Something is definitely screwy this year.

 

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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18 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Any speculation on why the models so totally missed most of the clouds and pretty much all of the rain today / tonight?  I'm thinking it has something to do with the basic fact it's almost unheard of for us to get moisture here from an old Baja Hurricane.

I read something today about the incredible lack of action over the Atlantic this season.  One article stated there have been at least 8 weird things about this season so far.  Something is definitely screwy this year.

 

I was just thinking this… it was a whiff by all the models. And I honestly have no speculation as to why either.

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26 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Radar looks impressive around Centralia and heading towards Olympia. Got a few droplets here as well…. But nothing enough to get the roads. 

0CF7CCD0-A5A2-4296-927E-F64BBC27BFBE.gif

Getting some decent rain here now! 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-64

Coldest min-48

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Wet season rainfall-0.00”

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45 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Any speculation on why the models so totally missed most of the clouds and pretty much all of the rain today / tonight?  I'm thinking it has something to do with the basic fact it's almost unheard of for us to get moisture here from an old Baja Hurricane.

I read something today about the incredible lack of action over the Atlantic this season.  One article stated there have been at least 8 weird things about this season so far.  Something is definitely screwy this year.

 

Models were pretty aware of this midlevel cloudcover and spotty rain today, I'd been eyeing them for a week and expected exactly this today. Only thing they got wrong was the sfc temp response, which is pretty typical and has happened many times already this summer. That and the one lightning strike over PDX; that was a pretty well timed sliver of moist air aloft coupled with a localized area of convergence around 800mb.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Models were pretty aware of this midlevel cloudcover and spotty rain today, I'd been eyeing them for a week and expected exactly this today. Only thing they got wrong was the sfc temp response, which is pretty typical and has happened many times already this summer. That and the one lightning strike over PDX; that was a pretty well timed sliver of moist air aloft coupled with a localized area of convergence around 800mb.

That was actually the only rumble of thunder I've heard this year so far. I saw lightning on August 9th but it was really far away to the SW.

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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Raining decently now, will PDX end the dry streak???

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Lol nvm

9B7A652F-8917-44DE-8EDE-E4598C9AAF92.png

F2794AE1-B10D-4C8E-ACDD-4FF455E1ADF9.png

Rain at least!prateptype_cat.us_nw.png

Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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3 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

That was actually the only rumble of thunder I've heard this year so far. I saw lightning on August 9th but it was really far away to the SW.

Ouch. Up here at least I had a decent morning storm back in June, then a sideswipe in early August. PDX got shafted hard in the storm department this year. Glad you at least got something.

  • Like 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Ouch. Up here at least I had a decent morning storm back in June, then a sideswipe in early August. PDX got shafted hard in the storm department this year. Glad you at least got something.

Yeah the only rumbles of thunder I've heard in the past two years here were today and March 2021. Hopefully we can see something later this fall or next year!

Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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1 minute ago, Doiinko said:

Yeah the only rumbles of thunder I've heard in the past two years here were today and March 2021. Hopefully we can see something later this fall or next year!

Goddamn. You are due and then some. And y'all are actually in a better spot for warm season storms than Seattle!

  • Like 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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5 hours ago, RentonHillTC said:

12z EPS vs 18z GEFS only 6 days out. does anyone have any thoughts about which model suite is the superior model we should lean towards here? I don’t think I’ve seen it discussed much. 🤔🤔🤔🤔

 

5573A935-0D0D-4873-85BA-B2FA427FFDB9.png

A879047B-98E4-499E-89F0-BFDC3A967A34.png

only when it FITS his AGENDA!!!11!!!!!1

  • Popcorn 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Goddamn. You are due and then some. And y'all are actually in a better spot for warm season storms than Seattle!

Well maybe today's GFS run will verify and we'll get lucky!prateptype_cat.us_nw.png

  • Snow 1
  • Storm 1

Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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  • Longtimer
11 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Goddamn. You are due and then some. And y'all are actually in a better spot for warm season storms than Seattle!

I don’t know if I’d say there’s much of a difference between the two metro areas.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I don’t know if I’d say there’s much of a difference between the two metro areas.

PDX is more inland, and usually closer to sites of initiation during our better setups. On a day like today though with minimal sfc influence it doesn't really matter, no.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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