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3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

We could be choking on wildfire smoke and Tim would still be not wanting it to rain very much.

Wait… that’s actually what’s happening.

No... I would love a decent soaking rain.    A couple days of rain then back to sun.    No need to rush the inevitable. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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31 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Maybe parts of the west... but that is never going to happen in September.    I am glad western WA won't be flipping a switch to a constant stormy pattern which can happen.   Sorry... going to enjoy the rebound next week.   Smoke should be completely scoured out too.   

yeah it will all be over here

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19 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Yea, no need for rain anytime soon since we are guaranteed to get some before July 5th, 2023.

I said it would be nice to get a soaking rain.    But there is no need to flip the switch yet.   

You live in a climate that averages 210 dry days a year and you want rain every single day.   You are going to be disappointed the majority of the time.  Don't blame me.   I live in a climate where its closer to a 50% split but prefer the dry 50% and know the wet 50% is inevitable.   I concede all of Nov-Jan to the rain gods.   Travel also helps.   I start expecting closer to 50/50 from Feb-Apr.   Many years work out that way.   Hopefully won't see a spring 2021 again for a long time.   That was pretty rare.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I said it would be nice to get a soaking rain.    But there is no need to flip the switch yet.   

You live in a climate that averages 210 dry days a year and you want rain every single day.   You are going to be disappointed the majority of the time.  Don't blame me.   I live in a climate where its closer to a 50% split but prefer the dry 50% and know the wet 50% is inevitable.   I concede all of Nov-Jan to the rain gods.   Travel also helps.   I start expecting closer to 50/50 from Feb-Apr.   Many years work out that way.   Hopefully won't see a spring 2021 again for a long time.   That was pretty rare.

yeah, no one would ever suspect you'd prefer the "50%" of the time it's dry by what you post every day.    lol

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I said it would be nice to get a soaking rain.    But there is no need to flip the switch yet.   

 

Doesn't always work like that. Plenty of years have seen a sustained wet pattern in September and then flipped to an extended dry one again.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Doesn't always work like that. Plenty of years have seen a sustained wet pattern in September and then flipped to an extended dry one again.

Some areas in Portland had over 5" of rain in September 2019 and then October and November were very dry I think.

Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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5 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Doesn't always work like that. Plenty of years have seen a sustained wet pattern in September and then flipped to an extended dry one again.

Yep... its nice when it holds off until November to really get going.   But meaningful rain events usually start in September as a ramp up.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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That weak ULL that has been hanging out offshore since Sunday is finally moving inland and kicking off some convective activity over the Cascades.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

Doesn't always work like that. Plenty of years have seen a sustained wet pattern in September and then flipped to an extended dry one again.

I would go as far to say that very wet Septembers are often a good sign for those rooting for a very dry October or November. 2019, 2013, 1978, 1969, 1911 to name a few.

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16 minutes ago, yellowstone said:

Starting to wonder exactly what needs to happen for Boeing Field to stop reporting smoke…

I was thinking the same thing earlier when I noticed my computer was still saying smoke in the lower right corner.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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KSEA recorded a high of 69F today... the first sub-70F day since July 17th when they reached 69F as well. To find a high cooler than that, we need to go back to the 3rd... Also our last sub 60F day, with a high of 58F, and the last gasp of those blissfully consistent warm season cold anomalies we enjoyed from April-early July.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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55 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I would go as far to say that very wet Septembers are often a good sign for those rooting for a very dry October or November. 2019, 2013, 1978, 1969, 1911 to name a few.

Probably true.     

Feels like the same thing is true for wet springs.    I was certain July-Sept would be way drier than normal here after the spring we had.   It was the complete opposite of 2019 with a dry spring and wet summer.    I know you will give me examples down there to refute it... but I spent most of May and the first half of June thinking the rain lovers on here cheering for the rain to continue are going to regret the Yang to this Ying.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

KSEA recorded a high of 69F today... the first sub-70F day since July 17th when they reached 69F as well. To find a high cooler than that, we need to go back to the 3rd... Also our last sub 60F day, with a high of 58F, and the last gasp of those blissfully consistent warm season cold anomalies we enjoyed from April-early July.

I can't even imagine seeing multiple highs in the 50s here now like August 1968. That month had some 40+ diurnal ranges in some spots here as well.

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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2502F8E5-3AB9-4448-8F5A-3CF489529FB8.png

Severe warning just east of Omak.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Jesus christ I gotta go inside

63326C46-D47D-4152-B6C9-10E2DBD8562D.gif

wowowowowow!!!!! supper excited for you dude enjoy the show!!

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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5 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Heather Lake Fire and Flood Falls Trail Fire continue to belch out the smoke in SW BC. And the Bolt Fire smoke is affecting us as well.

Was hoping the air quality would be better here today, but it’s still iffy.

Visually the air quality was much worse here today. Could barely see the hills to our west.  No sure what the Aqi was. 

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69/53.

Currently 57. 
I mowed Today! Also blew ash off of the deck, etc. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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00z GFS has highs in the low 50s with rain south of PDX on Saturday

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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Just now, Meatyorologist said:

00z GFS has highs in the low 50s with rain south of PDX on Saturday

Then it's western WA's turn on Sunday.... And central California's turn Monday! Even a decent Sierra snowstorm.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

00z GFS has highs in the low 50s with rain south of PDX on Saturday

That is the other side of the GFS temp output issues.   Often way too cold with troughing.    It also shows low 50s in Seattle on Sunday.

The ECMWF shows mid to upper 60s those days. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

You live in a climate that averages 210 dry days a year and you want rain every single day.   You are going to be disappointed the majority of the time.  Don't blame me.   I live in a climate where its closer to a 50% split but prefer the dry 50% and know the wet 50% is inevitable.   I concede all of Nov-Jan to the rain gods.   Travel also helps.   I start expecting closer to 50/50 from Feb-Apr.   Many years work out that way.   Hopefully won't see a spring 2021 again for a long time.   That was pretty rare.

You live in a climate that averages 210 wet days a year and you want sun every single day.   You are going to be disappointed the majority of the time.  Don't blame me.  I live in a climate where its closer to a 50% split but prefer the less humid 50% and know the steamy 50% is inevitable. I concede all of June-Sept to the swamp gods. Travel also helps. I start expecting closer to 50/50 in Oct-Nov. Many years work out that way.   Hopefully I won't see a summer like 2010/11/12/13/15/16/18/19/20/21/22 again for a long time. That was pretty typical.

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ECMWF weeklies are drier than average in the NW US through the end of October, on balance. No bueno. 

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15 minutes ago, Phil said:

You live in a climate that averages 210 wet days a year and you want sun every single day.   You are going to be disappointed the majority of the time.  Don't blame me.  I live in a climate where its closer to a 50% split but prefer the less humid 50% and know the steamy 50% is inevitable. I concede all of June-Sept to the swamp gods. Travel also helps. I start expecting closer to 50/50 in Oct-Nov. Many years work out that way.   Hopefully I won't see a summer like 2010/11/12/13/15/16/18/19/20/21/22 again for a long time. That was pretty typical.

You travel to places with worse humidity!

And there is roughly 180-185 days with no rain here per year.   Not much of debate. And some of the days with rain are also sunny for a decent part of the day.   So not all the days with rain are rainy days.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That is the other side of the GFS temp output issues.   Often way too cold with troughing.    It also shows low 50s in Seattle on Sunday.

The ECMWF shows mid to upper 60s those days. 

That model comparison is lazy. The cool Saturday put out by the GFS is the result of a stratoform rain shield, not a fundamentally different airmass and weather pattern. The Euro simply doesn't have that feature. Pretty typical disagreement for four days out w/ a diving and cutting off trough.

What the GFS shows would make sense given the rain. Evaporative cooling would keep things chilly pretty easily. Whether that rain will happen or not is a more relevant question.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

That model comparison is lazy. The cool Saturday put out by the GFS is the result of a stratoform rain shield, not a fundamentally different airmass and weather pattern. The Euro simply doesn't have that feature. Pretty typical disagreement for four days out w/ a diving and cutting off trough.

What the GFS shows would make sense given the rain. Evaporative cooling would keep things chilly pretty easily. Whether that rain will happen or not is a more relevant question.

GFS does not really show all day rain on Sunday but still spits out low 50s.   It's a common theme with the GFS to be too extreme on both sides... with ridging and troughing.

gfs-deterministic-nw-precip_3hr_inch-3545600.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You travel to places with worse humidity!

And there is roughly 180-185 days with no rain here per year.   Not much of debate. And some of the days with rain are also sunny for a decent part of the day.   So not all the days with rain are rainy days.

You average over 200 wet days per year.

It’s your problem, not mine.

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8 minutes ago, Phil said:

You average over 200 wet days per year.

It’s your problem, not mine.

Not true.   The Cedar Lake station at 1,500 feet and deeper in the foothills averages around 180.    And probably 25% or more of the days with measurable rain here are not even "rainy days" with the rain at night or only for a short period during the day.   So there are significantly more days per year that are not true "rainy days" than there are rainy days.

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