PNW September 2022 Wx Obs/Disc

[Frontal Snowsquall]

3 hours ago, T-Town said:

Looks like we will need to head east for outdoor activities while we’re in bend this week. 

Or you might be able to head North starting on Monday.

[NWbyNW]

9 minutes ago, Cloud said:

This is what? 3rd year in a row now? 

 

This is actually very low AQI (still bad) levels considering how bad China and India usually are. I am impressed.  Good job world.  

The difference is the PNW isn't creating this bad air due to bad practices.  This is natural bad air. 

[Cloud]

We are under the shift now. SEA switched to S not long ago and hopefully now starting the SSW and onshore. Still got smoke filtering in. Visibility back down to 5. 

[NWbyNW]

Maybe some good news?  Bolt Creek Fire's latest update says the fire has burned 500 acres but is listed at minimal-low growth.  Let's hope this is correct instead of the fear-mongering local media.

[Cloud]

00z is back to turd and dry for next 10 days. Oh well.. let's burn. 

[Guest administrator]

2 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Maybe some good news?  Bolt Creek Fire's latest update says the fire has burned 500 acres but is listed at minimal-low growth.  Let's hope this is correct instead of the fear-mongering local media.

I detached a retina after I rolled my eyes at this post.

[Front Ranger]

PDX down 5 degrees in last hour to 70. May not break the record min max for September of 66 after all.

[Cloud]

8 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Maybe some good news?  Bolt Creek Fire's latest update says the fire has burned 500 acres but is listed at minimal-low growth.  Let's hope this is correct instead of the fear-mongering local media.

It says this was updated 20 mins ago but I absolutely do not believe the numbers are right. The fire is supposedly 2,000 acres and that was 9hrs ago. 

And a fire of that magnitude, I find it hard to believe that it's only 500 acres. 

And I dont believe the Washington State DNR Wildfire is doing any "fear-mongering"

 

[Guest administrator]

46 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Sadly no.  Winds are still blowing quite well eastward.  It will continue into tomorrow as well.  This is horrible news to hear.  

Fear mongering.

[smerfylicious]

8 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Maybe some good news?  Bolt Creek Fire's latest update says the fire has burned 500 acres but is listed at minimal-low growth.  Let's hope this is correct instead of the fear-mongering local media.

It's closer to 7,000 acres according to Sky Valley Fire.

[Kayla]

2 hours ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Agreed.

And even in the west the smoke in places like Montana are much worse for smoke most summers. 

That may have been true in the past but I wouldn’t make that assumption now. You guys have had it way worse then me over the past 3 years now.

[Cloud]

12 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Maybe some good news?  Bolt Creek Fire's latest update says the fire has burned 500 acres but is listed at minimal-low growth.  Let's hope this is correct instead of the fear-mongering local media.

And if you believe what you're seeing on here with the true-color visible satellite is 500 acres... I'll shave my head. 

[Phil]

10 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

You know AST is on the coast, right?

The warmest lows here are at the coast.

And Tim keeps saying the SSTs are screaming warm over there so..  

[Cloud]

14 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

It's closer to 7,000 acres according to Sky Valley Fire.

We'll know the exact size tomorrow but as of Saturday Evening, it's already 9,000 acres. 

Quote

As of Saturday evening, the wildfire is estimated to have burned 9,000 acres, according to Peter Mongillo, a spokesperson with Snohomish Regional Fire and Rescue. Infrared aircraft and equipment will be used Sunday to determine the exact size

 

[ShawniganLake]

26 minutes ago, Cloud said:

And if you believe what you're seeing on here with the true-color visible satellite is 500 acres... I'll shave my head. 

Seems unlikely a 500 acre fire in the cascades would Be dropping ash on Vancouver Island

[Jbolin]

15 minutes ago, Phil said:

The warmest lows here are at the coast.

And Tim keeps saying the SSTs are screaming warm over there so..  

I have a stand alone fan blowing on me, so OBVIOUSLY that means I'm freezing.

[Cloud]

Smoke still holding strong here at BFI but I’m glad we’ve cooled down to 66 now. High of 85. 

[RentonHill]

[SnowWillarrive]

45 minutes ago, Kayla said:

That may have been true in the past but I wouldn’t make that assumption now. You guys have had it way worse then me over the past 3 years now.

The last several years has been exceptionally smoke free in Montana.
plus we have only had 1-2 days of smoke here in 2022. 

[Cloud]

7 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Lmfao…  

[Kayla]

23 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

The last several years has been exceptionally smoke free in Montana.
plus we have only had 1-2 days of smoke here in 2022. 

Again this is an assumption that is based on thoughts (mainly thanks to Tim) instead of facts. I've lived here for 5 summers now and it hasn't been worse than anywhere else in the PNW. Smoke free summers in the NW are unfortunately a thing of the past as our climate continues to warm.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5476308/#SD1

[Cloud]

Euro is still insisting on some showers tomorrow morning while the GFS is dry. Guess we’ll find out. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

Did the tour of Puget Sound today car shopping for my son.  Coming down the canyon into the Skagit flats conditions went to in a hurry (not that they were great in Bellingham).  We hit Marysville around 1pm to fairly heavy ash fall, but it was a cool 73 degrees.  We struck out there and headed on to Kirkland.  The temp jumped to the upper 90's as we hit Bellevue.   Other than the stifling heat, the smell of smoke was not too strong.

We then went on down to Renton, it was a few degrees cooler, but I think the smoke was a little worse.

We ended up back in Kirkland and picked up a car we looked at there, and started driving north around 9:45 this evening.  It was hard to tell what the smoke was doing for the most part, but it seemed to be down to streetlight level around Lynnwood and again in Burlington/Mt. Vernon.

 

My son graduated from a 1998 Subaru Impreza with over 300k miles to a 2016 Subaru Forester with 70k miles.  All of this Subaru test driving has me seriously considering selling my Vee-Dub and getting a Subie. When I got the vee-dub, I got the TDI anticipating that I would have a commute.  Instead I now work remote full time, so it doesn't really make sense to keep a car meant to drive long distances.

 

I saw mention on the Whatcom weather FB page that there is a chance of thunderstorms tomorrow?

[Cloud]

anything beyond 5 days is a scrap shoot at this point. Even the Euro is struggling. Last night’s 00z vs tonight’s. 

[Cloud]

This run does bring some much needed rain for SW WA and OR at day 9.5. 

[SnowWillarrive]

35 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Again this is an assumption that is based on thoughts (mainly thanks to Tim) instead of facts. I've lived here for 5 summers now and it hasn't been worse than anywhere else in the PNW. Smoke free summers in the NW are unfortunately a thing of the past as our climate continues to warm.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5476308/#SD1

Not getting my facts from TT. Personal experience from time in Missoula. Your definitely more likely to have a smokey summer in Montana vs anywhere west of the Cascades. 

As we know though. There were some pretty large fires before modern fire suppression. No surprise over recent fires in a warming climate. 

 

[ChrisEl Elyon]

20 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Did the tour of Puget Sound today car shopping for my son.  Coming down the canyon into the Skagit flats conditions went to in a hurry (not that they were great in Bellingham).  We hit Marysville around 1pm to fairly heavy ash fall, but it was a cool 73 degrees.  We struck out there and headed on to Kirkland.  The temp jumped to the upper 90's as we hit Bellevue.   Other than the stifling heat, the smell of smoke was not too strong.

We then went on down to Renton, it was a few degrees cooler, but I think the smoke was a little worse.

We ended up back in Kirkland and picked up a car we looked at there, and started driving north around 9:45 this evening.  It was hard to tell what the smoke was doing for the most part, but it seemed to be down to streetlight level around Lynnwood and again in Burlington/Mt. Vernon.

 

My son graduated from a 1998 Subaru Impreza with over 300k miles to a 2016 Subaru Forester with 70k miles.  All of this Subaru test driving has me seriously considering selling my Vee-Dub and getting a Subie. When I got the vee-dub, I got the TDI anticipating that I would have a commute.  Instead I now work remote full time, so it doesn't really make sense to keep a car meant to drive long distances.

 

I saw mention on the Whatcom weather FB page that there is a chance of thunderstorms tomorrow?

I seen a post about that it would be early if any

[Cloud]

34 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Did the tour of Puget Sound today car shopping for my son.  Coming down the canyon into the Skagit flats conditions went to in a hurry (not that they were great in Bellingham).  We hit Marysville around 1pm to fairly heavy ash fall, but it was a cool 73 degrees.  We struck out there and headed on to Kirkland.  The temp jumped to the upper 90's as we hit Bellevue.   Other than the stifling heat, the smell of smoke was not too strong.

We then went on down to Renton, it was a few degrees cooler, but I think the smoke was a little worse.

We ended up back in Kirkland and picked up a car we looked at there, and started driving north around 9:45 this evening.  It was hard to tell what the smoke was doing for the most part, but it seemed to be down to streetlight level around Lynnwood and again in Burlington/Mt. Vernon.

 

My son graduated from a 1998 Subaru Impreza with over 300k miles to a 2016 Subaru Forester with 70k miles.  All of this Subaru test driving has me seriously considering selling my Vee-Dub and getting a Subie. When I got the vee-dub, I got the TDI anticipating that I would have a commute.  Instead I now work remote full time, so it doesn't really make sense to keep a car meant to drive long distances.

 

I saw mention on the Whatcom weather FB page that there is a chance of thunderstorms tomorrow?

I own a legacy. And it’s by far the best vehicle I’ve owned. I love subies!

[smerfylicious]

NWS posted this from 4 hours ago. Is there a place to check for a more updated one?

 

 

[Cloud]

12 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

NWS posted this from 4 hours ago. Is there a place to check for a more updated one?

 

 

I don’t think we’re getting anymore updates tonight which will have many residents on edge. The last update I saw was from my previous post which was updated about 2 hours ago with 9,000 acres. 
 

 

[NWbyNW]

Using the latest satellite data, this is roughly the boundaries of the Bolt Creek Fire to the best of their knowledge currently.  It looks like it has jumped the power pole lines and in one area, across US 2.  It may have also jumped the Skykomish River??  I hope what this is showing isn't true... but we may have lost the towns of Grotto and Baring.  

As winds shift, Skykomish isn't out of the risk zone either. 

 

 

[HuskyMaestro]

4 hours ago, NWbyNW said:

What the actual HECK.  I am standing here watching fireworks go off at the Tulalip Indian Reservation. And not just a few, but several now for the past five minutes. Do they want to start a fire?  What the heck?  Do the people firing off fireworks not realize the situation going on?

People were popping off a whole ton of fireworks in Tacoma near the dome when I was headed home from picking up food. Around 9:30 earlier. Looked like it was being fired from the streets and it had some sophistication to it, like a 4th of July show. It was unbelievable. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

60F and still really smoky out there.

[ChrisEl Elyon]

[ChrisEl Elyon]

Mild, smokey 67° here in Belltown Seattle at 5am 

[The Blob]

Was still smokey after work but didn't smell like it, like it did in the evening. 

[Cloud]

Scattered showers moving through. Euro was right. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

Just went out with the dog and we have ash falling up here in Bellingham.  Definitely ready for this to be over!

[Chewbacca Defense]

Check out the rotation over the west side of Vancouver island

 

 

[Tyler Mode]

Awesome changes and temperature and humidity this morning.