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27 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

Silver lining on all this extra warmth:

I have about 35 romas and 10 or so San marzanos that are working on ripening. Would be a nice first season haul after a very late start.

Yeah, tomatoes (especially cherry) have been ripening for almost a month, but it's really in the last week or two that they've started prolifically producing. I wouldn't mind the first frost holding off for another month or so to keep the garden productivity up, but rain would be welcome to limit watering duties.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.24 (2010)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 5.8"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5"

2021-22: 21.75" (12/24: Tr, 12/25: 5", 12/26: 3", 12/27: 1.5", 12/28: Tr, 12/29: 1", 12/30: 3", 1/5: 2.5", 1/6: 1", 2/2: Tr, 2/21: 1.5", 2/22: 0.75", 2/23: 1.5", 2/24: 1")

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4 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

September 1983 at least was quite troughy, and barely cracked 80 at PDX. Can't imagine anything like that nowadays. And it came after a very wet late August, as did 2008. The rule of thumb for me is that the longer it takes a ridgy/bone dry summer-like pattern to break down in the fall the worse a sign it tends to be for winter, although there are notable exceptions like 1936.

You are correct about this.  The interesting caveat is we are going to have a pretty major trough in the coming days.  Just not much precip.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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32 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Yeah, tomatoes (especially cherry) have been ripening for almost a month, but it's really in the last week or two that they've started prolifically producing. I wouldn't mind the first frost holding off for another month or so to keep the garden productivity up, but rain would be welcome to limit watering duties.

If I have to, I'll pick what is left even if they are green. They'll ripen on their own time.

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1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Might be time to start considering the chances for warmest September on record at some PNW stations. I’ve always felt like the 67.4 at PDX was kind of low hanging fruit. Right now they’re about five degrees above that, with a good signal for another warming trend the last 1/3 of the month.

I remember this comment from 2017.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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46 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Mile high...

Record high in Denver is the same as DC.

Drier air compensates for the altitude difference.

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1 hour ago, Skagit Weather said:

Yeah, tomatoes (especially cherry) have been ripening for almost a month, but it's really in the last week or two that they've started prolifically producing. I wouldn't mind the first frost holding off for another month or so to keep the garden productivity up, but rain would be welcome to limit watering duties.

I'm still waiting for any of them to start reddening. It's been about 25 days since flowering, so any time now....

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3 hours ago, Skagit Weather said:

Yeah, tomatoes (especially cherry) have been ripening for almost a month, but it's really in the last week or two that they've started prolifically producing. I wouldn't mind the first frost holding off for another month or so to keep the garden productivity up, but rain would be welcome to limit watering duties.

Same thing here... been picking tomatoes for about a month and they are still going crazy,      Everything is still producing very well except for peas which were done weeks ago.   

Hard to believe that we are going to go through this troughy period with almost no rain and then go back to ridging.    We are almost always done with watering by this point.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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00Z EPS shows 850mb temps going above normal in just 3 days and stay above normal the rest of the month.   The cold air moves through so fast.    This troughing period has become virtually nothing in the big picture.      

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1663200000-1663200000-1664496000-10.gif

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-1663200000-1663200000-1664496000-10.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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00Z ECMWF shows that the low clouds get scoured out on Friday and then there are middle level clouds on Saturday and its sunny again by Sunday for basically the rest of the run.   

If we go through the rest of September in my area with virtually no rain... we are looking at a record dry July - Sept period.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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While the PNW stays mainly dry there are many areas in the west set to get plenty of rain where they desperately need it. This would really help with the wildfire efforts in those areas as well. Awesome to see for mid September.

1C764F1D-5E36-45FD-9E8A-167490A7A68F.jpeg

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Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 119.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16"

Highest snow depth: 20"

Coldest high: -5ºF

Coldest low: -25ºF

Number of subzero days: 1

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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I haven’t had a high above 71 or a low above 60 so far this week. 

Let’s recap this summer:

Hottest week ever in July

Hottest month ever in August

Hottest September ever?

Driest astronomical summer ever?

It literally couldn’t be worse. Well, until next year that is.

Mr. Tacoma will love this post. 

 

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23 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

I haven’t had a high above 71 or a low above 60 so far this week. 

Let’s recap this summer:

Hottest week ever in July

Hottest month ever in August

Hottest September ever?

Driest astronomical summer ever?

It literally couldn’t be worse. Well, until next year that is.

Mr. Tacoma will love this post. 

 

I think we are in the running for the driest astronomical summer ever in my area.    

And still running WAAAAY above normal for the water year across the entire area up here thanks to ridiculous rain earlier.   SEA is still 7 inches above normal for the water year.   If you cheer for ridiculous rain then you will probably have to endure the dry offset.   That is how climo works.

But the lack of rain is now starting to bother me.   There is no balance.   This will probably be offset by another record breaking rainy period.   And on it goes.    

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I think we are in the running for the driest astronomical summer ever in my area.    

And still running WAAAAY above normal for the water year across the entire area up here thanks to ridiculous rain earlier.   SEA is still 7 inches above normal for the water year.   If you cheer for ridiculous rain then you will probably have to endure the dry offset.   That is how climo works.

But the lack of rain is now starting to bother me.   There is no balance.   This will probably be offset by another record breaking rainy period.   And on it goes.    

We are very fortunate that we had a wet spring. Still, it’s a “what have you done for me lately” issue we are facing. Even hardy native plants can’t endure months of bone dry and far warmer than normal. 

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6 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

We are very fortunate that we had a wet spring. Still, it’s a “what have you done for me lately” issue we are facing. Even hardy native plants can’t endure months of bone dry and far warmer than normal. 

But if spring wasn't so extreme then maybe summer wouldn't have been so extreme.   On the other end of the spectrum... 2019 had a very dry spring and fairly wet summer and there was no smoke and it was green all summer (at least around here).     We are in a cycle of extremes right now.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Same thing here... been picking tomatoes for about a month and they are still going crazy,      Everything is still producing very well except for peas which were done weeks ago.   

Hard to believe that we are going to go through this troughy period with almost no rain and then go back to ridging.    We are almost always done with watering by this point.   

turned my watering budget on my sprinklers down to 50% yesterday but typically we have to water through first frost here if you want to maintain a green lawn so this is on track compared to other years over here in terms of water.

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50 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

But if spring wasn't so extreme then maybe summer wouldn't have been so extreme.   On the other end of the spectrum... 2019 had a very dry spring and fairly wet summer and there was no smoke and it was green all summer (at least around here).     We are in a cycle of extremes right now.   

I think there was a lot more rain to the South that spring. Eugene had over 7" of rain in April and there was flooding in the South Valley that month.

 

Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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I have never in my life seen the trees this green, this late in the season. Just finally starting to get some yellow color on the ash trees here.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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42 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I have never in my life seen the trees this green, this late in the season. Just finally starting to get some yellow color on the ash trees here.

Not really surprised given how crazy late the leafout was this year. Was in Sisters and Bend in late May and quite a few trees were still completely bare. Took until mid-June for some trees in Corvallis to finish up IIRC.

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I don't know if this was posted earlier, but here are the stats from meteorological summer. Not a record warm summer for any state, but in the west that's probably mostly because of a June that didn't roast the whole time. This was the third warmest meteorological summer on record for the nation as a whole (126). I thought it was interesting that NCEI figured out it was the warmest min temps on record for only Snohomish County in WA.

2022SummerAvgTemp.png.9cacb74cfab994afc7a7d8b8dada17fd.png

statewidetmaxrank-202206-202208.png.3512b9d38c672a62edf21350fc4fff21.png

statewidetminrank-202206-202208.png.83329c8f3e5330bdea91f3cd510ca28b.png

countytminrank-202206-202208.png.7eb8dede7c3870c9f57d42a0ad8c36c8.png

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.24 (2010)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 5.8"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5"

2021-22: 21.75" (12/24: Tr, 12/25: 5", 12/26: 3", 12/27: 1.5", 12/28: Tr, 12/29: 1", 12/30: 3", 1/5: 2.5", 1/6: 1", 2/2: Tr, 2/21: 1.5", 2/22: 0.75", 2/23: 1.5", 2/24: 1")

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  • Longtimer

It’s getting far enough along we probably need to admit the warning signs for a regional dud are starting to flash.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

Looking back at the SLE data I never realized how dry September/October 2011 were at SLE. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It’s getting far enough along we probably need to admit the warning signs for a regional dud are starting to flash.

I don’t usually consider summer/early fall as an indicator for how the winter will play out until November. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-65

Coldest min-48

Monthly rainfall-0.04”

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1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

I have never in my life seen the trees this green, this late in the season. Just finally starting to get some yellow color on the ash trees here.

Still looks like mid-July here. Not even a hint of autumn in the landscape right now.

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7 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I don’t usually consider summer/early fall as an indicator for how the winter will play out until November. 

I will need to look deeper into the patterns, but some of the years on the dry September list are alarming. Some great ones too, but more further back. I need to look into the later fall correlations for those years so we can read the tea leaves in real time. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I will need to look deeper into the patterns, but some of the years on the dry September list are alarming. Some great ones too, but more further back. I need to look into the later fall correlations for those years so we can read the tea leaves in real time. 

September 2016 was pretty dry in southern Oregon but the following 2 months after were much better.

I'd like to think that month has a bit less of a correlation on general weather than November or October does. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Warm Season Stats

Thunders: 50
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 7/5, 7/6, 7/8, 7/12, 7/17, 7/18
7/21, 7/23, 7/27, 7/31, 8/1, 8/4, 8/5, 8/6, 8/7, 8/9
8/10, 8/11, 8/14, 8/21, 8/26, 8/29, 8/30, 9/3, 9/4, 9/6

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 4 / 3
Frequent Lightning: 5 (5/20), (6/13), (7/6), (7/21), 8/1, 
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13), ~55 (7/6)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I will need to look deeper into the patterns, but some of the years on the dry September list are alarming. Some great ones too, but more further back. I need to look into the later fall correlations for those years so we can read the tea leaves in real time. 

I’m not an analogs expert but if this winter was a dud I don’t think I’d necessarily hang the blame on a warm/dry start to fall. Not really expecting greatness this winter personally but I do think there will be atleast one modest event at some point. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-65

Coldest min-48

Monthly rainfall-0.04”

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I don't know, feels like things globally are topsy-turvy.  I 'm thinking some warmth/dryness and a couple extreme cold/snow events to even things out to about normal for the whole winter, at least on this side of the state.  we haven't been below 0 over here since 3/1/19.  we're due, was almost (with some gaps up to 2 years) an annual thing until about 2010-11 ish

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I read too that there have only been 3 years since 1950 that have had no Atlantic hurricanes in August.  this is one of them but trying to find the other 2 (was not in the tweet I saw from NOAA).  could be a useful, if small, Anal Log

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14 hours ago, Phil said:

That’s crazy esp considering the lack of humidity there. You’d think that would allow temps to rise relatively easily.

It was also tough for K-Falls to hit 90 in October. If I am correct, they have only done this once or twice ever. 

A really good October wave was 2-3 days of ~85 degree highs when I lived there. That usually happens on one day though.

Personal latest >90 is 9/20/2014, and latest >88 on 9/27/2018. Even now at my new place there aren't a lot of 90's this time of the year recorded after the middle of September. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Warm Season Stats

Thunders: 50
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 7/5, 7/6, 7/8, 7/12, 7/17, 7/18
7/21, 7/23, 7/27, 7/31, 8/1, 8/4, 8/5, 8/6, 8/7, 8/9
8/10, 8/11, 8/14, 8/21, 8/26, 8/29, 8/30, 9/3, 9/4, 9/6

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 4 / 3
Frequent Lightning: 5 (5/20), (6/13), (7/6), (7/21), 8/1, 
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13), ~55 (7/6)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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44 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I don’t usually consider summer/early fall as an indicator for how the winter will play out until November. 

October 1949 and October 2019 were both very cold / blocky Octobers West-wide.

One led to one of the greatest DJFs ever recorded, the other led to a steaming pile of shitt

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edit: the other 2 years with no Atlantic Hurricanes in August were 1961 and 1997

 

61-62 is pretty snowy in Spokane (67") but 97-98 part the record is missing for some of the season (95-96 is the same for KGEG) not sure what happened those 2 seasons but 97-98 looks dry

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8 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

edit: the other 2 years with no Atlantic Hurricanes in August were 1961 and 1997

 

61-62 is pretty snowy in Spokane (67") but 97-98 part the record is missing for some of the season (95-96 is the same for KGEG) not sure what happened those 2 seasons but 97-98 looks dry

There was a 16-20" snowstorm around Thanksgiving in 1961 down in K-Falls. 

A January 2017 style snow event in November is mega impressive. I think even 1955 and 1985 didn't have a singular storm like that, but those were pretty snowy Novembers for sure.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Warm Season Stats

Thunders: 50
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 7/5, 7/6, 7/8, 7/12, 7/17, 7/18
7/21, 7/23, 7/27, 7/31, 8/1, 8/4, 8/5, 8/6, 8/7, 8/9
8/10, 8/11, 8/14, 8/21, 8/26, 8/29, 8/30, 9/3, 9/4, 9/6

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 4 / 3
Frequent Lightning: 5 (5/20), (6/13), (7/6), (7/21), 8/1, 
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13), ~55 (7/6)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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14 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

edit: the other 2 years with no Atlantic Hurricanes in August were 1961 and 1997

 

61-62 is pretty snowy in Spokane (67") but 97-98 part the record is missing for some of the season (95-96 is the same for KGEG) not sure what happened those 2 seasons but 97-98 looks dry.

1967/68 is an analog to watch IMO.

This tweet is as of 8/31. Obviously there have been hurricanes since, but the point stands.

 

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

1967 is an analog to watch.

This tweet is as of 8/31. Obviously there have been hurricanes since, but the point stands.

 

I read somewhere that 2002-03 was a great winter here.  😀

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I read somewhere that 2002-03 was a great winter here.  😀

That was an El Niño so probably off the list (though I’d love a repeat of that one personally).

But the lack of Atlantic tropical activity has me somewhat bullish for a cold winter here (or at least periods with substantial cold) for the first time in awhile. Assuming it continues. It’s one of the variables I’ve always looked at, as it has been surprisingly predictive when accounting for other variables.

Not over yet, though. Both the 2001 and 1988 hurricane seasons turned on and became active at the last minute, and those winters ended up warm. Need to see activity remain suppressed through October for any kind of statistical relationship to hold outside that which is explained by ENSO.

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The -ENSO years that remained quiet through the rest of the season (1967/68, 1984/85, and 2013/14) all had record breaking cold out this way.

On the other hand, 2001 got very active at last second and finished 8 hurricanes (IIRC), and that winter ended up torching here. The 1988 season turned on late as well.

So the next 5 weeks could be telling.

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24 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I guess I should have said 61 and 97 were the only years since 1950 with no tropical activity at all in August in the Atlantic

 

 

I think it’s 1962 you’re thinking of, not 1961, which was very active in the Atlantic.

1970 was another very quiet La Niña hurricane season.

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