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And here’s how 2022 Atlantic ACE is tracking so far.

Only at 30, and unless Fiona gets her act together, will likely fall in the bottom 10% of seasons by the end of the month. 🤯 

DBB415F1-E8DB-416A-BA16-76F4D4F53A21.jpeg

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7 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

How could anyone give that a weenie? Squirrels are cute! (Not quite as cute as spiders, but still cute.)

Thank you lol. Was like d**n tough audience here.

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54 minutes ago, Phil said:

1967/68 is an analog to watch IMO.

This tweet is as of 8/31. Obviously there have been hurricanes since, but the point stands.

 

1967 has been a pretty good sensible weather analog for us since April or so overall. Similar stretch of impressive early spring troughing and then a nasty mid to late summer.

Got pretty windy here in early October that year...

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Sunday could have some potential to spread some deformation zone action up towards NW OR and SW WA, since they're notoriously hard to predict and often tend to have a little mor latitudinal spread than modeled. Might be our last real chance for measurable precip this month.

Edited by BLI snowman
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57 minutes ago, Phil said:

1967/68 is an analog to watch IMO.

This tweet is as of 8/31. Obviously there have been hurricanes since, but the point stands.

 

Not a terrible winter:

8.5" at Downtown Seattle

10.3" at Salem

10.9" at PDX

11.6" at SeaTac

11.6" at Bethany COOP

 

 

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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8 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

1967 has been a pretty good sensible weather analog for us since April or so overall. Similar stretch of impressive early spring troughing and then a nasty mid to late summer.

Got pretty windy here in early October that year...

Really warm February in 1968 I think. And then Salem and Bethany COOP recorded a temp of 23 in April!

Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

On top of that all, seeing a wild albino creature is definitely unusual and worth sharing.

I’ve only seen a couple of them in my life, definitely special.

First time was in the mountains of NC when I was 11 or 12 years old. Apparently there is some kind of local population there (they had signs that said “albino squirrel crossing”, lol). I thought it was some kind of inside joke at first but apparently not.

Several years ago I saw one in a neighbors yard while driving by, but didn’t have time to take a picture. So this was the first time I’ve been able to take a picture of one.

Just for the record, the picture I posted is from a friend’s camera. I took pictures with my iPhone but they aren’t nearly as good.

This is my crappy picture. :lol: 

8794593D-10FE-41F8-A7C8-014E3428DFBF.jpeg

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16 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

1967 has been a pretty good sensible weather analog for us since April or so overall. Similar stretch of impressive early spring troughing and then a nasty mid to late summer.

Got pretty windy here in early October that year...

May and the first half of June in 1967 was the complete opposite of 2022 in my area.

From May 1st - June 15th it rained on just 8 days here in 1967 and 42 days in that same 45-day period in 2022.    

It literally could not be more different.   I can't even imagine having 37 dry days in that period.    We had 3 dry days this year. 😀

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The dry season went from April 28 - Sept 10 in 1967 in my area.   It started much earlier in 1967. 

This year the dry season has run from June 22 - ???   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Looks like 67-68 was pretty avg here for a winter. Had like 3" of snow but that was it compared to other areas just a bit to the north.

With today's climate it would probly be a dud here but we've had plenty of snow this last decade.

Just waiting on an Arctic airmass. We still haven't had one since before I joined this forum.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 35F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 17F (Feb 23, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Apr 17, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 5 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 10.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 30.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

May and the first half of June in 1967 was the complete opposite of 2022 in my area.

From May 1st - June 15th it rained on just 8 days here in 1967 and 42 days in that same 45-day period in 2022.    

It literally could not be more different.   I can't even imagine having 37 dry days in that period.    We had 3 dry days this year. 😀

Being a good overall analog doesn't mean the weather is going to match up perfectly week for week.

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21 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Being a good overall analog doesn't mean the weather is going to match up perfectly week for week.

Thank you. Low pass/seasonal scale analog methodologies shouldn’t be used for high resolution/subseasonal scale purposes, except in special/dynamical circumstances.

It simply does not work like that. The best analogs on a given subseasonal interval are often *not* the same analogs that fit best on seasonal timescales.

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51 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Really warm February in 1968 I think. And then Salem and Bethany COOP recorded a temp of 23 in April!

Things have a funny way of working out like that. Jan-March 2015 was a 3 month long torch, and 2015 was like one of the only years it snows on Easter Sunday. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Warm Season Stats

Thunders: 50
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 7/5, 7/6, 7/8, 7/12, 7/17, 7/18
7/21, 7/23, 7/27, 7/31, 8/1, 8/4, 8/5, 8/6, 8/7, 8/9
8/10, 8/11, 8/14, 8/21, 8/26, 8/29, 8/30, 9/3, 9/4, 9/6

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 4 / 3
Frequent Lightning: 5 (5/20), (6/13), (7/6), (7/21), 8/1, 
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13), ~55 (7/6)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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2 hours ago, Phil said:

I’ve only seen a couple of them in my life, definitely special.

First time was in the mountains of NC when I was 11 or 12 years old. Apparently there is some kind of local population there (they had signs that said “albino squirrel crossing”, lol). I thought it was some kind of inside joke at first but apparently not.

Several years ago I saw one in a neighbors yard while driving by, but didn’t have time to take a picture. So this was the first time I’ve been able to take a picture of one.

Just for the record, the picture I posted is from a friend’s camera. I took pictures with my iPhone but they aren’t nearly as good.

This is my crappy picture. :lol: 

8794593D-10FE-41F8-A7C8-014E3428DFBF.jpeg

That is more a matter of equipment (or lack thereof) than anything. One needs a pretty good telephoto lens for animal photography, else the best one can do is a picture like the above one: a tiny subject against a large background.

P.S. We have melanistic (the opposite of albino: completely black) squirrels here. They are actually quite common.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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2 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Looks like 67-68 was pretty avg here for a winter. Had like 3" of snow but that was it compared to other areas just a bit to the north.

With today's climate it would probly be a dud here but we've had plenty of snow this last decade.

Just waiting on an Arctic airmass. We still haven't had one since before I joined this forum.

What about temps? It looks like Dec 1967 and Jan 1968 were the coldest back to back months we have had since that year. Dec 1992 - Jan 1993 and 2007-2008 we very close. 

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3 hours ago, Phil said:

And here’s how 2022 Atlantic ACE is tracking so far.

Only at 30, and unless Fiona gets her act together, will likely fall in the bottom 10% of seasons by the end of the month. 🤯 

DBB415F1-E8DB-416A-BA16-76F4D4F53A21.jpeg

How does the Pacific season compare? I know it's not a Nino but still.

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4 hours ago, Phil said:

The -ENSO years that remained quiet through the rest of the season (1967/68, 1984/85, and 2013/14) all had record breaking cold out this way.

On the other hand, 2001 got very active at last second and finished 8 hurricanes (IIRC), and that winter ended up torching here. The 1988 season turned on late as well.

So the next 5 weeks could be telling.

I wouldn't mind those winters either!

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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42 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

 

OK heres a short combo of two decent clips (sound on!) and some slow-mo shots. Thunder in the mountains just hits different.

Wow, that must've been an amazing storm to experience in person

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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25 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Hopefully tomorrow morning is the end of our streak of torchy lows for September.

The persistent low clouds should finally get scoured out by late tomorrow.  

It seems like the residual smoke in the air has been enhancing the marine layer.    We have seen in this in the past and I think particulate matter assists with low cloud formation.   The marine layer has behaved oddly this week... its been broken and looks like it will clear up but it never does.   Starting Sunday we should be back to full sunshine and clean air.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 hours ago, Phil said:

And here’s how 2022 Atlantic ACE is tracking so far.

Only at 30, and unless Fiona gets her act together, will likely fall in the bottom 10% of seasons by the end of the month. 🤯 

DBB415F1-E8DB-416A-BA16-76F4D4F53A21.jpeg

Of course...climate change, killing off the canes.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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3 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

That is more a matter of equipment (or lack thereof) than anything. One needs a pretty good telephoto lens for animal photography, else the best one can do is a picture like the above one: a tiny subject against a large background.

P.S. We have melanistic (the opposite of albino: completely black) squirrels here. They are actually quite common.

Yeah we have the black ones too. They blend in better with the surroundings so definitely more numerous. Albinos probably get picked off by hawks and foxes fairly quickly.

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18z GEFS is a heat miser’s sadistic fantasy. Lots of trees and animals will burn alive if that pattern verifies.

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6 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

1967 has been a pretty good sensible weather analog for us since April or so overall. Similar stretch of impressive early spring troughing and then a nasty mid to late summer.

Got pretty windy here in early October that year...

Storm King Jr!

Oct1967PeakGustMapWAORCA.jpg.8564b59605dc8ee6308f0fc91b1684da.jpg

https://www.climate.washington.edu/stormking/October1967.html

 

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There is a very surprising amount of smoke and pollutants still in the air... and its more obvious when the low clouds clear out overhead.    Hopefully the system tomorrow is enough to kick it out of here.   It has not really changed at all since Monday.

 

 

sea smoke.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 hours ago, AlTahoe said:

What about temps? It looks like Dec 1967 and Jan 1968 were the coldest back to back months we have had since that year. Dec 1992 - Jan 1993 and 2007-2008 we very close. 

There was at least 1 sub-freezing high in Jan 1968. It was an average winter here with a mixed bag of some standard PNW rainy or winter mildish dry and then the occasional brush with some Arctic goodies. Not bad at all.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 35F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 17F (Feb 23, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Apr 17, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 5 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 10.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 30.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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57 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

There was at least 1 sub-freezing high in Jan 1968. It was an average winter here with a mixed bag of some standard PNW rainy or winter mildish dry and then the occasional brush with some Arctic goodies. Not bad at all.

Looks like up here we had a pretty good 5-6" snowstorm up here in late January with sustained east winds up to 30mph that month!

Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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D2AB6E7A-D5BB-4DE4-A677-8433E7760B95.jpeg

Definitely not in line with my preferences... 😐

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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