PNW September 2022 Wx Obs/Disc

[Cascadia_Wx]

56 here this morning...low of 65 so far at PDX.

[Meatyorologist]

NorCal and OR get some very decent rainfall out of tropical remanants around D11 on the 06z GFS. San Jose actually gets some breezy weather out of sfc pressure gradients right at the end of that low's life... Technically tropical disturbance winds in central Cali. Neat.

[Meatyorologist]

GIF for reference... Would not be surprised to never see this feature pop up again in future runs. Also would be an unexpected and interesting way to end the fire season in the southern PNW.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

30 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

56 here this morning...low of 65 so far at PDX.

You may want to prepare for a bonus 90.

[TT-SEA]

Still no rain in sight.  

Likely one of the most extreme flips ever out here this spring and summer.   It rained almost every day for 90 days and now we are going 90 days with almost no rain.     Obviously there is a flip every year between spring and summer... but this one takes the cake.  

The period from March 20 - June 20 was recording setting in terms of persistent rain in the foothills.    And I will have to look it up, but it seems pretty likely that the June 20 - Sept 20 period might be record setting in terms of dry.  

Normally we would have had 30-35 additional dry days in the spring... and 20-25 additional days with rain from June 20 - Sept 20.      Somewhat balanced.     Not this year.    

 

 

 

[TT-SEA]

17 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

GIF for reference... Would not be surprised to never see this feature pop up again in future runs. Also would be an unexpected and interesting way to end the fire season in the southern PNW.

Shows up well in the total precip map on the GFS... WA is an island of dry while even CA gets meaningful rain.

[TT-SEA]

Satellite shows that the low clouds are very patchy this morning like the ECMWF showed.   They formed in place in the valleys and did not solidly come inland from the coast like yesterday.   Should be a quick burn off today.

It also shows a massive fire down in Oregon pumping out an incredible amount of smoke.   Luckily the flow is supposed to stay onshore up here.    Any offshore flow now would get real ugly real fast.

 

[T-Town]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Satellite shows that the low clouds are very patchy this morning like the ECMWF showed.   They formed in place in the valleys and did not solidly come inland from the coast like yesterday.   Should be a quick burn off today.

It also shows a massive fire down in Oregon pumping out an incredible amount of smoke.   Luckily the flow is supposed to stay onshore up here.    Any offshore flow now would get real ugly real fast.

 

Started out clear here but clouds and fog have formed in place. 57 degrees. 

[TT-SEA]

Tomorrow will be the opposite again with low clouds coming in solidly all the way to the Cascades in the morning and not clearing until early afternoon.    Then basically no low clouds on Sunday morning.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I would say a bit of a step back on the 06z ensembles. 

[TT-SEA]

Looks like the July/August period was the second driest ever at the Cedar Lake station... just behind 2017.  

Also looks like the June 20 - Sept 20 period in 2017 was very similar to this year overall.    The first significant rain came in the 3rd week of September.     

 

[GobBluth]

17 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I would say a bit of a step back on the 06z ensembles. 

Slightly- looks like a few ensembles went towards the 00 operational torch option and skewed the mean.

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

That fire is about 15 miles away from 2 places im going camping at in a few days…

[Omegaraptor]

Pretty sunset last night in Elmwood Park (direct west of Chicago).

81 dew 63 at O’Hare and should be heading for 84-85 today.

[AlTahoe]

That fire in Oregon looks crazy right now

[Cloud]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Satellite shows that the low clouds are very patchy this morning like the ECMWF showed.   They formed in place in the valleys and did not solidly come inland from the coast like yesterday.   Should be a quick burn off today.

It also shows a massive fire down in Oregon pumping out an incredible amount of smoke.   Luckily the flow is supposed to stay onshore up here.    Any offshore flow now would get real ugly real fast.

 

It's still quite thick here in Sodo... down to ground level... but starting to lift. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

That fire in Oregon looks crazy right now

Apparently that is the Cedar Creek fire which started on August 1st by lightning and has now finally exploded over a month later.  

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

2 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

That fire in Oregon looks crazy right now

Yeah I’m hoping it calms down a bit over the next few days…

[Phil]

00z EPS made a nice improvement for week-2. Quite a bit cooler than yesterday’s 12z.

[MossMan]

Was sunny at my house but as soon as I dropped down about 100’ on my way to work it was thick soup. 
Yes I had my heated steering wheel on since fall is here. 

[Phil]

Dewpoint still pushing 80°F in Timtown.

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KLRO&hours=72

[AmunRAEL]

I've noticed that UW WRF GFS is pretty different Regular GFS sometimes I have seen different temperature forecasted from the two big differences sometimes.

Overall I like UW WRF GFS more so especially the 1 1/3km runs

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That Cedar Creek Fire is burning in an area with very heavy fuel loads. 

[AmunRAEL]

Predicted high temps based off UW WRF GFS for today

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That Cedar Creek Fire is burning in an area with very heavy fuel loads. 

Looks like it’s moving NNE…maybe firefighters have a chance of containment in that big burn scar area to the NE?

[Cloud]

8 minutes ago, ChrisAmunRA said:

I've noticed that UW WRF GFS is pretty different Regular GFS sometimes I have seen different temperature forecasted from the two big differences sometimes.

Overall I like UW WRF GFS more so especially the 1 1/3km runs

The UW WRF is not even the GFS tbh...  This is a research model. It has bits and pieces of the GFS but it's still a completely different model. 

[AmunRAEL]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

The UW WRF is not even the GFS tbh...  This is a research model. It has bits and pieces of the GFS but it's still a completely different model. 

I think it does decent especially with winter snowfalls 

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, ChrisAmunRA said:

Predicted high temps based off UW WRF GFS for today

I’m in the green!

[Cascadia_Wx]

39 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

That fire in Oregon looks crazy right now

A forested Waldo Lake basin was nice while it lasted 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

A forested Waldo Lake basin was nice while it lasted 

It wanted to fit in with its friends. 

[RentonHill]

the 4CH has become its own pole

[Low Dew point]

11 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Much slower... and also moving more north to south than to the east.     But will probably form in place around Seattle later.  

Here is the ECMWF cloud map for 8 a.m. and 11 a.m. tomorrow:

 

 

I don't think the 11 am view is going to be correct.  It is very socked in here right now, fairly drippy too.

I like it.

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, Randyc321 said:

I don't think the 11 am view is going to be correct.  It is very socked in here right now, fairly drippy too.

I like it.

Totally sunny in Seattle already just a few miles east of you.      You can see how low the fog bank is over you from the Space Needle cam.  

[TT-SEA]

18 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

the 4CH has become its own pole

12Z GFS is warmer for next week but then much cooler for next weekend compared to the 00Z run.     But it will probably trend warmer again as that period gets closer.   The 12Z GEM and 12Z ICON look fairly ridgy for next weekend. 

[HoodCanalBridge]

This was the Cedar Creek Fire taken from near Diamond Lake this morning around 0645.   Today is going to be a pretty wicked fire weather day for a couple of the fires down in the central/southern Oregon area.

[LowerGarfield]

Clear day outside and woke up to a red flag warning. Sadly my weather station is out of batteries and I won't get new ones until the weekend. Clear day. Warm but nice.

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, Randyc321 said:

I don't think the 11 am view is going to be correct.  It is very socked in here right now, fairly drippy too.

I like it.

Looks like ECMWF nailed it... cleared up by 11.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

How accurate is that Hrrr smoke model within 24 hours? It's showing a very nasty plume through our area from that Cedar Creek Fire. 

[Kayla]

17 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

How accurate is that Hrrr smoke model within 24 hours? It's showing a very nasty plume through our area from that Cedar Creek Fire. 

Pretty accurate. You can see the that plume moving NNW currently on satellite. Next couple of days look really smokey for just about everywhere in the NW.

Looking like the smoke might actually keep us from breaking record highs here tomorrow.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

How accurate is that Hrrr smoke model within 24 hours? It's showing a very nasty plume through our area from that Cedar Creek Fire. 

Fully prepared to have that fuckking thing enter the McKenzie watershed and our semi-annual ash storm force us to wear gas masks inside our houses.