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  • Longtimer
12 minutes ago, Phil said:

Might have to eat these words later but I’m cautiously optimistic out this way. Pattern of wave breaking over the NATL resembles many of the “cold” winters of recent decades. 

Yeah, you're probably due for a meaningfully snowy/active winter (or at least a major blizzard) just as we're due for a regional dud.

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12 minutes ago, Phil said:

Might have to eat these words later but I’m cautiously optimistic out this way. Pattern of wave breaking over the NATL resembles many of the “cold” winters of recent decades. 

I think you mentioned 2013/14 earlier, and that was a pretty good winter for the Willamette Valley as well. Arctic blast and South Valley snowstorm in December that brought a -10 temp to Eugene and then three snowstorms in February with accumulations of up to 18" in the Corvallis area. I think there was also a NW WA and SW BC event in late Feb.

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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  • Longtimer

Wet deck after the 5min drizzlefest that has already stopped. Still 0.00” in the gauge for the day and the month. 

045576FC-9ABF-4391-BDED-E5DD266B4496.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS is much less troughy next weekend than the ECMWF. 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-4064000.png

Tim, you really love to deliver bad news. We all know it ain’t gonna rain until some point in October. We know it’s going to be relatively very warm for a while too. No need to post every model run or meteogram that tells us what we already know. 

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32 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Tim, you really love to deliver bad news. We all know it ain’t gonna rain until some point in October. We know it’s going to be relatively very warm for a while too. No need to post every model run or meteogram that tells us what we already know. 

I posted about the much more troughy ECMWF run as well... even before the EPS came out.   Unfortunately the ECMWF does not really have support from the EPS yet.    You seem to want me to only post about things you like but its sort of fooling yourself to only see one side.    Oddly enough... you also seem to like to always assume the worst.   So I am confused.   😀

Either way... there is a better chance now that it will rain in a week than there was yesterday just based on the ECMWF.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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23 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

I think EPS was an improvement vs 00z

EPS spaghetti gif 9-16.gif

There are some members that agree with the operational run in there now.    

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Current view from Tahoe. Hurry up storm and blow this smoke out! 

Capture.JPG

Wow... that is horrible.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Do you have a HEPA or MERV 13 filter? They really help.

Yep 3 filters in the house. I am working in the office today (hospital) so the ventilation here is pretty good. I didn't even know how bad it had gotten outside until I had to walk across campus. 

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KSEA is going to record measurable precipitation out of this spontaneous blob of convection.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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41 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

just started dumping here

Just started raining here too... and might go for awhile.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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36 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

KSEA is going to record measurable precipitation out of this spontaneous blob of convection.

.14 there so far.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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72F and beautiful. Same temp inside as outside.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 35F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 17F (Feb 23, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Apr 17, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 5 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 10.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 30.7"

 

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My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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No sub-70 high at PDX 😔, 70/57 there, 69/53 at KHIO though

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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13 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Sprinklefest!

Any implications on this winter?

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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6 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Alaska Braces For Strongest Storm In A Decade

 

https://weather.com/news/weather/video/alaska-braces-for-strongest-storm-in-a-decade

 

Anal LogZZ?

9748FECA-7F43-4336-A961-411AC159068B.gif

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 35F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 17F (Feb 23, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Apr 17, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 5 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 10.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 30.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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24 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I was coming on here to post about this very thing.

The storm is the remnants of what was Typhoon Merbok, and could be one of the worst storms in recent memory, with hurricane-force winds and high surf along Alaska's remote Western Coast.  But there are villages that aren't prepared for this kind of thing. Water levels could be up to 18 feet above the normal high tide line.

Typhoon Merbok was formed further east in the Pacific than usual. The water temperatures are warmer this year giving the storm the fuel to grow. 

256ec146-694e-4313-a0ce-1be871e95b7b-medium16x9_AP22259725983521.jpg.e6fbed9c350a272f2a468bbbe16d3fd9.jpg

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6 hours ago, Doiinko said:

I think you mentioned 2013/14 earlier, and that was a pretty good winter for the Willamette Valley as well. Arctic blast and South Valley snowstorm in December that brought a -10 temp to Eugene and then three snowstorms in February with accumulations of up to 18" in the Corvallis area. I think there was also a NW WA and SW BC event in late Feb.

2013/14 was my second favorite winter of all time. Frequent snows (at least 25 days with at least a T of snow, including multiple 12”+ events and one 18” event). Big cold as well, two subzero lows and a 65mph windstorm producing ground blizzard conditions. 

Only 2009/10 tops it.

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13 minutes ago, Phil said:

2013/14 was my second favorite winter of all time. Frequent snows (at least 25 accumulating snow events including multiple 12”+ events and one 18” event). Big cold as well, two subzero lows and a 65mph windstorm producing ground blizzard conditions. 

Only 2009/10 tops it.

It was an excellent winter for widespread, frequent Arctic air intrusions into the lower 48. -EPO dominated and just about everyone got their turn. Bitterly cold winter for the upper Midwest.

Dec13TDeptUS.png

Jan14TDeptUS.png

Feb14TDeptUS.png

 

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A forum for the end of the world.

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9 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

It was an excellent winter for widespread, frequent Arctic air intrusions into the lower 48. -EPO dominated and just about everyone got their turn. Bitterly cold winter for the upper Midwest.

Dec13TDeptUS.png

Jan14TDeptUS.png

Feb14TDeptUS.png

 

January 2014 was persistently cold here. Stands out in that regard as it wasn’t a one and done hit.

I know this is weak sauce by Midwest standards, but for these parts it is very impressive. 11 days with single digit lows.

B90C06DC-0241-409D-8E15-AD433819065D.jpeg

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8 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

It was an excellent winter for widespread, frequent Arctic air intrusions into the lower 48. -EPO dominated and just about everyone got their turn. Bitterly cold winter for the upper Midwest.

Dec13TDeptUS.png

Jan14TDeptUS.png

Feb14TDeptUS.png

 

And the February snowstorms were really nice as well down here. On 2/6/2014 we had a temp of 18f at 6pm with probably 40mph+ gusts and blowing snow.

 

 

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

January 2014 was persistently cold here. Stands out in that regard as it wasn’t a one and done hit.

I know this is weak sauce by Midwest standards, but for these parts it is very impressive. 11 days with single digit lows.

B90C06DC-0241-409D-8E15-AD433819065D.jpeg

I was in NYC Superbowl weekend and there was a big snowstorm the Monday after when I flew out. Did you get anything with that?

A forum for the end of the world.

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1 minute ago, Doiinko said:

And the February snowstorms were really nice as well down here. On 2/6/2014 we had a temp of 18f at 6pm with probably 40mph+ gusts and blowing snow.

 

Yeah, pretty cool how even though the PNW was far from the center of the cold weather that winter, there were still two impressive Arctic events. Nothing as widespread since.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I was in NYC Superbowl weekend and there was a big snowstorm the Monday after when I flew out. Did you get anything with that?

Nope lol. Here it was a cold rain that ended as a wall of sleet and 50mph NW winds. Got maybe 1/4” of ice, no snow.

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February 2015 was definitely more impressive though, especially considering it occurred so late in the season.

I remember we *advected* down to -4°F with roaring winds all night. Big clouds of previously-fallen snow were blowing off the ground and high into the air. Would love to experience that again, haven’t seen anything like it since.

F5C29C7E-CBA6-4565-8D8F-11B3978D1C79.jpeg

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1 hour ago, NWbyNW said:

I was coming on here to post about this very thing.

The storm is the remnants of what was Typhoon Merbok, and could be one of the worst storms in recent memory, with hurricane-force winds and high surf along Alaska's remote Western Coast.  But there are villages that aren't prepared for this kind of thing. Water levels could be up to 18 feet above the normal high tide line.

Typhoon Merbok was formed further east in the Pacific than usual. The water temperatures are warmer this year giving the storm the fuel to grow. 

256ec146-694e-4313-a0ce-1be871e95b7b-medium16x9_AP22259725983521.jpg.e6fbed9c350a272f2a468bbbe16d3fd9.jpg

Yea its a beast.  one thing I read said strongest in 70 years in that vicinity

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1 hour ago, NWbyNW said:

I was coming on here to post about this very thing.

The storm is the remnants of what was Typhoon Merbok, and could be one of the worst storms in recent memory, with hurricane-force winds and high surf along Alaska's remote Western Coast.  But there are villages that aren't prepared for this kind of thing. Water levels could be up to 18 feet above the normal high tide line.

Typhoon Merbok was formed further east in the Pacific than usual. The water temperatures are warmer this year giving the storm the fuel to grow. 

256ec146-694e-4313-a0ce-1be871e95b7b-medium16x9_AP22259725983521.jpg.e6fbed9c350a272f2a468bbbe16d3fd9.jpg

Great information.    As usual!

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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