PNW September 2022 Wx Obs/Disc

[HoodCanalBridge]

Red flag conditions on the cedar creek:

Behavior forecast- A rapid increase in fire behavior is expected in the afternoon hours, during the peak burning period associated with a red flag warning and the passage of a dry cold front. The frontal passage is likely to be able to scrub out the lingering smoke cover and expose fuels to the full potential of the weather conditions. Large fire growth with an associated well developed convection column will allow for the most extreme spotting conditions to occur, up to 2 miles. Expect sustained active backing and flanking, with winds shifting from the SE to the NW in the morning and early afternoon hours. Once the system passes, and the air clears, fire behavior will increase very quickly, transitioning from mostly surface fire to crowning fire, especially where terrain, fuel, and wind are in alignment.*

[TT-SEA]

22 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Pretty accurate. You can see the that plume moving NNW currently on satellite. Next couple of days look really smokey for just about everywhere in the NW.

Looking like the smoke might actually keep us from breaking record highs here tomorrow.

Looks like it way over done though... this is supposed be right now and its not nearly this bad on this side of the mountains or in eastern WA.

 

[Kayla]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like it way over done though... this is supposed be right now and its not nearly this bad on this side of the mountains or in eastern WA.

 

That's not a very hi-res satellite image but the smoke is indeed all over the NW right now as the HRRR shows. Better to look at higher resolution and offset views just after dawn and just before dusk to spot the aloft smoke.

[Cloud]

2 hours ago, RentonHillTC said:

the 4CH has become its own pole

Ridiculous... how long until it becomes a permanent feature year around? 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Kayla said:

That's not a very hi-res satellite image but the smoke is indeed all over the NW right now as the HRRR shows. Better to look at higher resolution and offset views just after dawn and just before dusk to spot the aloft smoke.

True... but its not nearly as bad as the HRRR indicates right now.   The is technically smoke aloft but its barely noticeable.   It does show that main plume shifting west right over SEA and PDX tonight but then it mostly gets shoved east tomorrow morning with stronger onshore flow.

And by Sunday morning its way east...

 

 

[RentonHill]

I wonder if the globe is warming so fast now is because we started fighting forest fires. If we were burning 10x as much as we are now each year would the particulate be enough to have an impact 

[Kayla]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

True... but its not nearly as bad as the HRRR indicates right now.   The is technically smoke aloft but its barely noticeable.   It does show that main plume shifting west right over SEA and PDX tonight but then it mostly gets shoved east tomorrow morning with stronger onshore flow.

And by Sunday morning its way east...

 

 

Nonetheless, it is very smokey aloft right now. If you're looking for near ground level smoke then look at the "near ground level" parameter on the HRRR model which fortunately doesn't look too bad over the next couple of days. 

[Cloud]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

True... but its not nearly as bad as the HRRR indicates right now.   The is technically smoke aloft but its barely noticeable.   It does show that main plume shifting west right over SEA and PDX tonight but then it mostly gets shoved east tomorrow morning with stronger onshore flow.

And by Sunday morning its way east...

 

 

Yesterday was worse once everything cleared out and it was very hazy late in the afternoon. So it was definitely noticeable.

[Kayla]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Yesterday was worse once everything cleared out and it was very hazy late in the afternoon. So it was definitely noticeable.

Yeah it looks very noticeable to me currently on the space needle webcam. Similar here as well. Blue sky above but the tell tale white haze on the horizon.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Kayla said:

Yeah it looks very noticeable to me currently on the space needle webcam. Similar here as well. Blue sky above but the tell tale white haze on the horizon.

It's really minor... its totally sunny.   This is not a big deal right now.   Not nearly as bad as it looks on the HRRR.  

[TT-SEA]

Live view from here...

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It's really minor... its totally sunny.   This is not a big deal right now.   Not nearly as bad as it looks on the HRRR.  

Here it's pretty noticeable at least, thankfully it's aloft.

[Cloud]

4 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Yeah it looks very noticeable to me currently on the space needle webcam. Similar here as well. Blue sky above but the tell tale white haze on the horizon.

The panocam looked very similar to yesterday as I was driving south on I-5 facing Mt. Rainier. It's noticeable for sure. 

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

Probably gonna put out a pyro cumulonimbus cloud soon. Smoke aloft isn’t too bad here 70 degrees. 

[Kayla]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It's really minor... its totally sunny.   This is not a big deal right now.   Not nearly as bad as it looks on the HRRR.  

I don't know what else to tell you Tim. I think Sept 2020 has changed you perspective. Just because it's sunny out with blue sky above, doesn't mean that smoke aloft isn't present. It's very widespread right now and air quality is actually deteriorating in the foothill areas.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Probably gonna put out a pyro cumulonimbus cloud soon. Smoke aloft isn’t too bad here 70 degrees. 

Smoke aloft will probably get pretty thick overnight as the flow temporarily shifts to SE ahead of weak trough.   But it shifts back to SW by morning.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My main concern is centered around the main column this afternoon, Hrrr shows it pivoting and sliding right through our area this afternoon. Satellite pics people have posted seem to show that happening as we speak.  

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Kayla said:

I don't know what else to tell you Tim. I think Sept 2020 has changed your perspective. Just because it's sunny out with blue sky above, doesn't mean that smoke aloft isn't present. It's very widespread right now and air quality is actually deteriorating in the foothill areas.

Definitely has changed my perspective.    Technically it's noticeable but it's so minor.  This day would be spectacular in 2017, 2018, and 2020.

[TT-SEA]

Looking at the models...the flow stays solidly from the west or northwest for the next 10 days at least.    I don't see anything that would inundate the west side with smoke after tonight.  

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

Euro kicks a nice system through central Oregon while I’ll be down there with some beneficial rains. Plz verify. 

[Doinko]

This was near Sweet Home, OR in September 2020:

[TT-SEA]

12Z control run goes nuts by day 10.    Guessing this will prove to be way too aggressive.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

9/8/2020 halfway between my house and Silverton. This is smoke. 

[TT-SEA]

Up to 80 now in North Bend.

[TT-SEA]

Although... the EPS also has a strong troughing signal in the long range as well.

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Although... the EPS also has a strong troughing signal in the long range as well.

Dew.

Will have been 60+ days of near continuously above average 500mb heights by that point. Doesn't mean it will be frigid or even very cool or anything, but I think you can at least safely smell it coming now.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Dew.

Will have been 60+ days of near continuously above average 500mb heights by that point. Doesn't mean it will be frigid or even very cool or anything, but I think you can at least safely smell it coming now.

I agree.

[RentonHill]

54 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Dew.

Will have been 60+ days of near continuously above average 500mb heights by that point. Doesn't mean it will be frigid or even very cool or anything, but I think you can at least safely smell it coming now.

[TT-SEA]

14 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Yep... picked up another degree.   The high at SEA was 79.   It will be updated in the morning.  

Just following on this... official high yesterday was actually 79 as expected.  

[RentonHill]

hasnt looked like this in a while. smells amazing

[AmunRAEL]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

hasnt looked like this in a while. smells amazing

Sweet!!!

[RentonHill]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

EPS is rock solid.

[MossMan]

9 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

It’s over. 

[AmunRAEL]

TWC showing summer is over also

[TT-SEA]

Just now, ChrisAmunRA said:

That headline is a little misleading.    Labor Day will be sunny in the Seattle area after a some early morning clouds.  ECMWF shows quick clearing that day.   Much quicker than tomorrow actually. 

[RentonHill]

14 minutes ago, MossMan said:

It’s over. 

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

77 here not too bad. 

[LowerGarfield]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

9/8/2020 halfway between my house and Silverton. This is smoke. 

Smokey outside at my location. Quite a change from about six hours ago when it was clear and sunny.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, LowerGarfield said:

Smokey outside at my location. Quite a change from about six hours ago when it was clear and sunny.

I just told my son there is wall of smoke moving into Pullman right now.

Looks like it will get into King County this evening as well with SE flow.