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Ridiculously dry at the Cedar Lake station for the July - September period.

So far there has been 1.25 inches for that period with basically nothing in sight after a few showers possible later today.  

Here are the top 5 driest July - September periods:

1998 - 3.32

2017 - 3.57

2012 - 3.90

1967 - 4.16

1910 - 4.40

Unless that station picks up 2.07 inches over the next 2 weeks... this will be driest July - September period ever.   And if there is very little rain over the next 2 weeks then the record will be absolutely crushed.    Setting a new low bar for dry weather this year after breaking rainfall records earlier in the year.  

 

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3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

AQI is down to 13 in Seattle.  Smoke might finally be gone.

And it looks like summer is returning...despite the much shorter days.  

ecmwf-ensemble-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-3286400 (1).png

ecmwf-ensemble-KPDX-daily_tmin_tmax-3286400.png

Yay! Guess I will keep the boat in the water a little longer. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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28 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

May not be much rain, but it is ushering in a dramatic improvement in air quality. Finally heading back into the good range.

I think the cold air aloft is allowing the smoke to finally lift out.    It has not rained at all down here but the air looks dramatically better.

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7 minutes ago, rsktkr said:

Long-term signal looking nice and juicy! 🌧️🌧️🌧️

ens_image.png

That is really misleading.    None of the operational models show anything close to wet conditions and the GEFS and EPS are drier than normal for the next 2 weeks.    And the new 12Z GFS shows a total of .01 for Portland for the entire run.   

 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-qpf_anom_16day-4690400.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-qpf_anom_15day-4539200.png

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5 minutes ago, rsktkr said:

Long-term signal looking nice and juicy! 🌧️🌧️🌧️

ens_image.png

The ensemble mean precip amounts are not that great, but coupled with near-normal temperatures would probably help spell the end of fire season. Of course, the standard disclaimer about 🤡 applies.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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6 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

The ensemble mean precip amounts are not that great, but coupled with near-normal temperatures would probably help spell the end of fire season. Of course, the standard disclaimer about 🤡 applies.

I think its just a few rogue members making it look wet... the overwhelming signal is for dry weather for the next 2 weeks.   Maybe almost totally dry in reality.   The mean precip line barely registers above 0.00 on that chart.  

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I think its just a few rogue members making it look wet... the overwhelming signal is for dry weather for the next 2 weeks.   Maybe almost totally dry in reality.  

Once it gets to October (🤡) there are more than just a few colours of lines spiking upward. I would regard that as a significant signal.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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7 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Once it gets to October (🤡) there are more than just a few colours of lines spiking upward. I would regard that as a significant signal.

Long range noise when the EPS looks like this at the beginning of October:

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-4582400.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-4582400.png

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20 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Long range noise when the EPS looks like this at the beginning of October:

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-4582400.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-4582400.png

Those maps are for 1 Oct, the very start of the range where precip starts seriously showing up.

Up to that point, yes, there are only a few outlier ensemble members showing precip. Afterwards, quite a few members are. And the ensemble mean reflects this.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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Top 5 warmest September's at SLE

1) 2011 66.6

2) Tied 1918, 2014, 2017 66.3

5) 2021: 65.9

 

69.7F through the first half of this month.

Just crunched the NWS forecast for the next week. That would only get SLE down to 68.0 through the 22nd. A record warm September is almost a SLAM DUNK. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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The summer pattern and near nationwide blowtorch pattern not breaking down more is just a bad sign IMO for the winter. Raging Pacific jet will probably wait until December to get going at this rate. We're definitely due for a regional dud anyways and I'm feeling like we're going to continue the 2-3 magic of the last couple decades.

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5 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Those maps are for 1 Oct, the very start of the range where precip starts seriously showing up.

Up to that point, yes, there are only a few outlier ensemble members showing precip. Afterwards, quite a few members are. And the ensemble mean reflects this.

Just noticed that the GEFS chart posted went through most of October... I had no idea those charts went out more than a month.      I was thinking the chart only covered the next 2 weeks.    My bad.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

The summer pattern and near nationwide blowtorch pattern not breaking down more is just a bad sign IMO for the winter. Raging Pacific jet will probably wait until December to get going at this rate. We're definitely due for a regional dud anyways and I'm feeling like we're going to continue the 2-3 magic of the last couple decades.

I hate to agree with this, but I must. The signs are not good. The fact 2011 keeps coming up gives me hope...

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

The summer pattern and near nationwide blowtorch pattern not breaking down more is just a bad sign IMO for the winter. Raging Pacific jet will probably wait until December to get going at this rate. We're definitely due for a regional dud anyways and I'm feeling like we're going to continue the 2-3 magic of the last couple decades.

I remember lots of whining (and in some cases celebrating) about how this summer might follow suit from spring and be a cold, rainy “bummer summer.”

It is not all that unusual for the rainy season to start in September, but usually it starts in October. We have had a run of early onsets (onset was in late August last year up here), and are more than due for an October onset.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just noticed that the GEFS chart posted went through most of October... I had no idea those charts went out more than a month.      I was thinking the chart only covered the next 2 weeks.    My bad.   

I think the 00z Ensemble runs 45 days. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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15 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I remember lots of whining (and in some cases celebrating) about how this summer might follow suit from spring and be a cold, rainy “bummer summer.”

It is not all that unusual for the rainy season to start in September, but usually it starts in October. We have had a run of early onsets (onset was in late August last year up here), and are more than due for an October onset.

No sign of any systems really across the region (including southern BC) through the beginning of October. Definitely nothing remotely usual about the 90 day precip totals that the PDX/SEA/YVR regions are all going to be staring down come October 5 or so.

Edited by BLI snowman
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2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

No sign of any systems really across the region (including southern BC) through the beginning of October. Definitely nothing remotely usual about the 90 day precip totals that PDX/SEA/YVR regions are all going to be staring down come October 5 or so.

When it comes to total rainfall, summer precip deficits don’t matter much because climo norms mean we don’t get much precip in the summer anyhow.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

When it comes to total rainfall, summer precip deficits don’t matter much because climo norms mean we don’t get much precip in the summer anyhow.

That's much less true the further north you go. Abbotsford for example averages about 3" of rainfall in September and is sitting on 0.02" so far with perhaps a couple hundredths of an inch more in sight, which would make this a historically dry month for them. And there's already some ensemble/weekly noise about more general warmth and ridging in early October.

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

The persistent coolish nature of the early 2010s Ninas doesn't seem to really have translated to the past couple years at all. 

No, though as I mentioned September 2011 is still currently the warmest September on record for SLE. Obviously that summer was wickedly cold by current standards though. 

At this point really the only positive thing I can thing of is, if our climate is only capable of pulling off 1-3 cold months at a time, at most, then we are probably better off saving it until a little later in the season. Entirely non-scientific there, but just a thought. 

 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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We have had some historically dry falls like 1929 and 1936 deliver big time once we move into the winter. On the other hand there are years like 1952 which had a bone dry fall turn into a blow torch zonal/SW flow winter. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

That's much less true the further north you go. Abbotsford for example averages about 3" of rainfall in September and is sitting on 0.02" so far with perhaps a couple hundredths of an inch more in sight, which would make this a historically dry month for them. And there's already some ensemble/weekly noise about more general warmth and ridging in early October.

Warm-season rainfall is more in southern BC, but it still usually doesn't amount to all that much compared to the rest of the year. After a September onset and an August onset, an October onset for the rainy season really isn't a huge shock.

If it gets to Halloween and it is still dry, I will be grumbling. But too early to start now.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

No, though as I mentioned September 2011 is still currently the warmest September on record for SLE. Obviously that summer was wickedly cold by current standards though. 

At this point really the only positive thing I can thing of is, if our climate is only capable of pulling off 1-3 cold months at a time, at most, then we are probably better off saving it until a little later in the season. Entirely non-scientific there, but just a thought. 

 

Worked out for us in 2016-17. Of course the Pacific jet onslaught that fall felt like a pretty good sign even at the time.

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2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Warm-season rainfall is more in southern BC, but it still usually doesn't amount to all that much compared to the rest of the year. After a September onset and an August onset, an October onset for the rainy season really isn't a huge shock.

If it gets to Halloween and it is still dry, I will be grumbling. But too early to start now.

Again, the 90 day precip totals are going to be absolutely historically low for the majority of the region as we get into October. It is what it is. Even Tim is acknowledging it.

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10 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Worked out for us in 2016-17. Of course the Pacific jet onslaught that fall felt like a pretty good sign even at the time.

I remember pretty clearly it rained on October 3rd and every day the rest of the month up here. Ended up with something like 18" of rain, it was ridiculous. Wettest on record here, and at SLE. For some reason I had remembered September being very dry that year, but looking back it appears it was actually average in terms of rainfall. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I remember pretty clearly it rained on October 3rd and every day the rest of the month up here. Ended up with something like 18" of rain, it was ridiculous. Wettest on record here, and at SLE. For some reason I had remembered September being very dry that year, but looking back it appears it was actually average in terms of rainfall. 

I remember we had a really nice stratiform soaking (on a weekend no less!) in mid September that year to get things going. No such luck this year.

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Of course the ECMWF was originally much more robust with the troughing this weekend.    As recently as Monday it was showing a rainy weekend and that is not going to happen as everything shifted west.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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