PNW September 2022 Wx Obs/Disc

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Not looking to great for you either. I’m sure the north/south gradient will play out soon enough, but for now, a lot of us on this blog even in the north are living in some of the driest locations on earth for the past 90 days. Can’t get meaningfully drier than the .22’’ we have had in that timeframe. Looks like we could go 100+ days with less than .25’’ of QPF. 
 

The lake will be fine one way or another. 

I’m sure he will be just fine as will all of us. 

[TT-SEA]

Almost 80 in North Bend now.    Feels very summery out there except for the lower sun angle.

[NWbyNW]

Sorry no cool graphics to show.  Winds shifting will move some smoke in Snohomish and King County today and lower some air monitors too moderate.  It won't be a bigger event like a week or so ago.  Just expect to see the sky get hazy, maybe a cool sunset.

It won't be a big deal and should clear up at the latest by Wednesday, probably sooner.  Bolt Creek Fire is nearing 80% containment. 

[NWbyNW]

65F right now, predicted to hit 71F.  Unlike forecasting models are saying, no smoke here.  Though you can see some in the distance towards the foothills of the Cascade's.  Smoke is mostly moving northwest from the Sky Valley. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

80 in silverton, not summery, that would be 105. 

[Phil]

 

[NWbyNW]

WESTERN ALASKA STORM UPDATE...

We're about to learn more on the damage of the historic storm in western Alaska.  Early photos are coming in, but we still don't know the full impact and damage from the storm.  Based on these photos from Nome, I can't imagine the smaller villages will fair much better. It is reported in one village, the water surged 5.5 feet above normal tidal levels. We already know of mass flooding, erosion and electrical issues.  In Nome the tidal surge was 11.1 feet above normal.  

 

[MossMan]

Yeah things are getting a little weird now…Still 0.00” for the month. This is the latest I ever remember having to water. 
75/46.

Currently 57. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Yeah things are getting a little weird now…Still 0.00” for the month. This is the latest I ever remember having to water. 
75/46.

Currently 57. 

Still watering here too... ridiculously dry.    About as ridiculously dry now as it was ridiculously wet in mid June.

[Phil]

Temp in North Bend has dropped 20°F in 4 hours. Now that’s radiational cooling.  

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

Temp in North Bend has dropped 20°F in 4 hours. Now that’s radiational cooling.  

Pretty typical for the PNW after a sunny day in September with dry air.    And its calm out there.     Another 80-degree day ahead tomorrow.  

[Doinko]

Looks like the Cedar Creek fire will get a good soaking this week.

[NWbyNW]

I've been having to water my plants every day still.  Yesterday I dug into my raised bed garden area and the ground was totally dry.  Ugh.  Usually it's moist and good.  We need some rain... but not before the last of my tomato crop turns red.

 

Currently 60F and clear.

[TT-SEA]

Just 78 days away from reaching the earliest sunset.    

[RainIsGood1]

30 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Pretty typical for the PNW after a sunny day in September with dry air.    And its calm out there.     Another 80-degree day ahead tomorrow.  

Remember when you said only 8 weeks of warm and dry weather?

[Skagit Weather]

68/41 today. It's definitely starting to feel like fall out there now. Once the sun dropped behind the trees it was already below 60 and with a breeze I needed a jacket in the garden.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Night shift anybody?!

Edited September 20, 2022 by SouthHillFrosty

[TT-SEA]

52 here this morning with a light east wind... I can tell by the clarity of the stars a bright crescent moon that there is no smoke haze.    Its 10 degrees warmer here than the valley floor.   North Bend might have a 40-degree spread today.    Should be around 80 here this afternoon.

The 06Z GFS was almost totally dry for the next 16 days...

[Jakewestsalem]

Just returned from a whirlwind trip south to Santa Cruz via US1 down the norcal coast.

Let's just say it rained....alot!

Camping as we went, finally got soaked enough to find 4 dry walls and a roof in Santa Cruz for Sunday night. Good choice as it rained about 1.5" that night with 40mph winds.

Note to self....60f air can hold much more moisture than our typical 45f rain up here!!

Beautiful country down that way though.

[GobBluth]

4 minutes ago, Jakewestsalem said:

Just returned from a whirlwind trip south to Santa Cruz via US1 down the norcal coast.

Let's just say it rained....alot!

Camping as we went, finally got soaked enough to find 4 dry walls and a roof in Santa Cruz for Sunday night. Good choice as it rained about 1.5" that night with 40mph winds.

Note to self....60f air can hold much more moisture than our typical 45f rain up here!!

Beautiful country down that way though.

Hwy 1 is one of the great American highways.. even through the rain sounds like a blast.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

52 here this morning with a light east wind... I can tell by the clarity of the stars a bright crescent moon that there is no smoke haze.    Its 10 degrees warmer here than the valley floor.   North Bend might have a 40-degree spread today.    Should be around 80 here this afternoon.

The 06Z GFS was almost totally dry for the next 16 days...

Looks like we get saved by the tropics. Otherwise the entire nation would be dry/in drought.

Things have really dried out here over the last 2 months. Only 4-5” of rain since 8/1, after more than a foot of rain fell in July. All that has been undone now.  

[Phil]

North Bend dropped to 40.8°F this AM.  

https://www.northbendweather.com/WWL-mobile.php

Probably won’t get that cold here until late October.

[TT-SEA]

16 minutes ago, Phil said:

North Bend dropped to 40.8°F this AM.  

https://www.northbendweather.com/WWL-mobile.php

Probably won’t get that cold here until late October.

Almost 10 degrees warmer here this morning.    Going to be a beautiful summery day everywhere.

[snow_wizard]

12 hours ago, MossMan said:

Yeah things are getting a little weird now…Still 0.00” for the month. This is the latest I ever remember having to water. 
75/46.

Currently 57. 

Yeah...very disappointing model trends the last few runs.  That trough in the east gets so ridiculous that it keeps the ridge from progressing next week.  Not sure what the implications are here.

[snow_wizard]

21 minutes ago, Phil said:

Looks like we get saved by the tropics. Otherwise the entire nation would be dry/in drought.

Things have really dried out here over the last 2 months. Only 4-5” of rain since 8/1, after more than a foot of rain fell in July. All that has been undone now.  

I think I've had maybe .20" since 8/1.  VERY dry.

[LowerGarfield]

54F and sunny.

[snow_wizard]

Dropped to 43 here last night.  Pretty unusual to have a low cooler than the previous day after yesterday was warmer than the day before.

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Yeah...very disappointing model trends the last few runs.  That trough in the east gets so ridiculous that it keeps the ridge from progressing next week.  Not sure what the implications are here.

Opposite, actually. The trough in the east gets deep because the Pacific is trending less progressive/more meridional.

This all started with the WPAC typhoon augmenting the preexisting wavetrain(s) hence the reemergence of +PNA/+PT.

[snow_wizard]

I guess we just have to hope for a 1990 type collapse in early October.  I'm pretty shocked how this is dragging on now after summer was so hot and dry.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Phil said:

Opposite, actually. The trough in the east gets deep because the Pacific is trending less progressive/more meridional.

This all started with the WPAC typhoon augmenting the preexisting wavetrain(s) hence the reemergence of +PNA/+PT.

Any guesses where this is going?

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think I've had maybe .20" since 8/1.  VERY dry.

.22” since 6/19 at PDX. VERY, VERY dry.

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Almost 10 degrees warmer here this morning.

Baloney.

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Any guesses where this is going?

More progressive 1st half of October, but not seeing much in the way of a cool signal yet.

If tropical forcing is predictive, second half of October might be warm/dry again with northern jet displaced well to the north and a closed ULL somewhere over the CONUS.

Kind of a rudderless pattern overall.

[Phil]

Does appear Hunga Tonga has augmented the poleward broadening of the z-cells and will affect the NH stratosphere in some way this winter.

In the absence of the eruption I would be very bullish on this winter in the West. But it’s possible the volcano has upended the climatological progression and the outcome ends up being something out of left field.

I have no clue. We’ll find out eventually. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Dropped to 43 here last night.  Pretty unusual to have a low cooler than the previous day after yesterday was warmer than the day before.

49˚F last night… warmer than the previous night’s 46˚.

[TT-SEA]

16 minutes ago, Phil said:

Baloney.

Most definitely.  Same thing at SEA which is also a wind exposed, elevated location. 

I can tell it's going to be a warm day because the breeze felt warm even before dawn and still does.

You just don't understand our microclimates.  Of course it will be warmer here than the valley floor in this pattern.   It's a given.   Wish I could transport you here at dawn tomorrow and let you experience it firsthand.   

[Randyc321]

12 hours ago, MossMan said:

Yeah things are getting a little weird now…Still 0.00” for the month. This is the latest I ever remember having to water. 
75/46.

Currently 57. 

Yep, getting tired of watering, ready for rain.

[MossMan]

18 minutes ago, Phil said:

Baloney.

Oh boy…

[MossMan]

47 for a low. Currently 51. 

[Randyc321]

11 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Just 78 days away from reaching the earliest sunset.    

Just 79 days away from reaching the dreaded increasing sun angles