PNW September 2022 Wx Obs/Disc

[TT-SEA]

29 minutes ago, Phil said:

Baloney.

You can still see the difference on the current temp map.   It's warmer in the elevated wind exposed areas than the valley floor.   So obvious if you lived out here.  

 

[AlTahoe]

12 hours ago, Doiinko said:

Looks like the Cedar Creek fire will get a good soaking this week.

Our fire (mosquito) is mostly out after receiving 1"+ of rain over most of its eastern flank. There will be a lot of smoldering still, but hopefully those won't flare up until the real winter storms extinguish it all. 

[snow_wizard]

26 minutes ago, Phil said:

Does appear Hunga Tonga has augmented the poleward broadening of the z-cells and will affect the NH stratosphere in some way this winter.

In the absence of the eruption I would be very bullish on this winter in the West. But it’s possible the volcano has upended the climatological progression and the outcome ends up being something out of left field.

I have no clue. We’ll find out eventually. 

Everything pushed north COULD help us if it involves a poleward shifted GOA ridge.  I hate to say it, but I think this winter could end up being a blown golden opportunity though.  On the other hand the potential is certainly there for epic.

[AlTahoe]

42 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think I've had maybe .20" since 8/1.  VERY dry.

SF recorded .39" on 9/18 which was their highest 24 hour total of the year so far! I saw that stat on Twitter and couldn't believe it at first. They only have 1.9" since Jan 1st. Lol 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I can't believe how badly things are trending. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You can still see the difference on the current temp map.   It's warmer in the elevated wind exposed areas than the valley floor.   So obvious if you lived out here.  

 

Nothing about that map would surprise anyone with any degree of familiarity with mountain weather.

[Phil]

35 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You can still see the difference on the current temp map.   It's warmer in the elevated wind exposed areas than the valley floor.   So obvious if you lived out here.  

 

I’m just messing you, man. I know how decoupling and downsloping works. Same stuff happens here, probably more often than where you live.

I live in the Potomac River valley that decouples/radiates exceptionally well at night, while nearby areas downwind of the Blue Ridge (like Lovettsville and Leesburg) can be 10-15+ degrees warmer at night due to downsloping flow. On some occasions 25+ degrees warmer.

I’ve noticed these microclimates can be state dependent too. For instance, “weak” downslope flow allows my location to decouple relative to places farther west near the terrain, but stronger flow in the dead of winter funnels that wind down the river valley, and right through here, scouring out the shallow cold pool. Suddenly we’re one the warmest and windiest spots.

It’s weird and even after 30 years I still can’t predict it too well. And this doesn’t even account for mountain waves (or UHI influence in DC/other areas).

So believe me I get it.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Nothing about that map would surprise anyone with any degree of familiarity with mountain weather.

I was surprised to see a reading of 37 at 5800 feet this morning.  Must be somewhat cool aloft.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Salem is going to beat their all time warm September benchmark by 1-1.5F. WOW.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

I’m just messing you, man. I know how decoupling and downsloping works.

Same stuff happens here. I live in the Potomac River valley that decouples/radiates exceptionally well at night, while nearby areas downwind of the Blue Ridge (like Lovettsville and Leesburg) can be 10-15+ degrees warmer at night due to downsloping flow. On rare occasions 25+ degrees warmer.

I’ve noticed microclimates can be state dependent too. For instance, “weak” downslope flow allows my location to decouple relative to places farther west near the terrain, but stronger flow in the dead of winter funnels that wind down the river valley and right through here, and suddenly we’re one the warmest and windiest spots.

It’s weird and even after 30 years I still can’t predict it too well. And this doesn’t even account for mountain waves (or UHI influence in DC/other areas). So believe me I get it.

Same exact issues here.  Intensity of pressure gradients, gradient angles, whether there is CAA or an inversion, etc, etc.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What's amazing is when CERTAIN places get accumulating snow in the mid-30s, then it stays on the ground for 5 days with temps never dropping below 33!

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Salem is going to beat their all time warm September benchmark by 1-1.5F. WOW.

SEA is unlikely to achieve warmest September, but the fact it's even possible with only three 80+ days so far this month is pretty noteworthy.

[TacomaWx]

Just 0.04” here this month and we will be lucky to hit 0.10” probably. Going to be a very warm/dry September. 
  wake me up when September ends  

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Salem is going to beat their all time warm September benchmark by 1-1.5F. WOW.

Warm /dry in September isn't that uncommon with a Nina, but having it come after a hot /dry summer is.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Just 0.04” here this month and we will be lucky to hit 0.10” probably. Going to be a very warm/dry September. 
  wake me up when September ends  

Just mind blowing how bad the models have collapsed over the past 4 runs or so.  Still possible we will see a total reversal when this ends, but I'm disappointed.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Warm /dry in September isn't that uncommon with a Nina, but having it come after a hot /dry summer is.

Yeah, it's going to SMASH the record set in 2011. Which was a monthly mean of 66.6. Through the 26th SLE is projected to have a monthly mean of 68.0. 

 

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah, it's going to SMASH the record set in 2011. Which was a monthly mean of 66.6. Through the 26th SLE is projected to have a monthly mean of 68.0. 

 

Atleast despite the big torching since mid July…it wasn’t a horrible fire season. Smoke on the west side of the cascades wasn’t terrible either. Got some decent soaking rains down south too…Could’ve been worse. 

[Doinko]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Opposite, actually. The trough in the east gets deep because the Pacific is trending less progressive/more meridional.

This all started with the WPAC typhoon augmenting the preexisting wavetrain(s) hence the reemergence of +PNA/+PT.

I think I remember you saying that you think that the wet season would start late this year for the PNW a while ago, looks like that's happening.

[BLI snowman]

Not a lot to look forward to at this point. Even seeing one single transient front/trough not completely wash out would be a major victory for us now.

Edited September 20, 2022 by BLI snowman

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Most definitely.  Same thing at SEA which is also a wind exposed, elevated location. 

I can tell it's going to be a warm day because the breeze felt warm even before dawn and still does.

You just don't understand our microclimates.  Of course it will be warmer here than the valley floor in this pattern.   It's a given.   Wish I could transport you here at dawn tomorrow and let you experience it firsthand.   

10 degrees sound reasonable.  Dropped to 46F here this morning.  The station 500ft up the hill from here had a low of 58F

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks like we will be on the northern flank of some rain. Thank goodness this dry streak will end in Springfield.

Well maybe not...it'll be close. Would just be sprinkles too.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Hey look at that it’s raining!!

[Skagit Weather]

Another chilly morning with a low of 43F. With these cooler mornings recently my average low for the month is almost under 50F.

[Phil]

32 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

What's amazing is when CERTAIN places get accumulating snow in the mid-30s, then it stays on the ground for 5 days with temps never dropping below 33!

I know right?? Meanwhile my snow rapidly disappears even with temps in the low 20s.

[Phishy Wx]

13 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Just 78 days away from reaching the earliest sunset.    

Anal log?

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I guess we just have to hope for a 1990 type collapse in early October.  I'm pretty shocked how this is dragging on now after summer was so hot and dry.

I don't know, I'm leaning Climate Change. you know the elephant in the room people conveniently ignore 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I just showed everyone at my office the note card I was calculating September mean temps for SLE... They smiled politely and laughed nervously. 

[TT-SEA]

39 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

What's amazing is when CERTAIN places get accumulating snow in the mid-30s, then it stays on the ground for 5 days with temps never dropping below 33!

Absolutely!

Obviously sun angle and dewpoint are huge factors.    Snow can stay on the ground here in December and January with temps in the 40s and dewpoints below freezing.    And then disappear in an instant when the SW wind hits and the dewpoint rises.   I have seen snow stay on the ground through a sunny mid-winter period with temps in the 40s for days and then vanish immediately under cloudy skies and SW breeze even at the same temperature.   Its actually pretty common.    In mid-winter... the SW wind is the biggest factor in determining the staying power of snow on the ground.   Its everything.

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Absolutely!

Obviously sun angle and dewpoint are huge factors.    Snow can stay on the ground here in December and January with temps in the 40s and dewpoints below freezing.    And then disappear in an instant when the SW wind hits and the dewpoint rises.   I have seen snow stay on the ground through a sunny mid-winter period with temps in the 40s for days and then vanish immediately under cloudy skies and SW breeze even at the same temperature.   Its actually pretty common.    In mid-winter... the SW wind is the biggest factor in determining the staying power of snow on the ground.   Its everything.

When it snowed here this February we had just 0.3” and days in the low 40s following but the snow stuck around for 3 days. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

When it snowed here this February we had just 0.3” and days in the low 40s following but the snow stuck around for 3 days. 

I have literally never seen that happen here. It amazes me how quickly snow melts around here. 

[TacomaWx]

Got down to 52 here this morning…overnight lows have been much more normal the last few days. 64 now should be another really nice day. 

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I have literally never seen that happen here. It amazes me how quickly snow melts around here. 

It was unusual for here…such a small amount of snow hung on in the shaded areas pretty well. Then the higher DPs associated with that massive AR in late February started to creep in and it was gone in like 5 minutes. 

[ShawniganLake]

Hit “like” if you think Phil should just ask Tim out on a date already!

[Phil]

21 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I don't know, I'm leaning Climate Change. you know the elephant in the room people conveniently ignore 

Weather ≠ climate.

[TT-SEA]

13 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

It was unusual for here…such a small amount of snow hung on in the shaded areas pretty well. Then the higher DPs associated with that massive AR in late February started to creep in and it was gone in like 5 minutes. 

That small of an amount of snow.  

More commonly here we can get several inches of snow in a c-zone followed by a sunny period with dry air and low dewpoints and the snow stays despite temps well above freezing until the SW wind arrives.   And then it melts amazingly fast.   But that is with the ground being completely covered... if its less than half an inch then it usually sublimates away.

This pic was taken on 2/25 this year when the temp was in the upper 40s but the dewpoint was in the 20s.   It felt really warm in the sun but there was still snow on the trees in the shaded areas.  

[Phishy Wx]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Weather ≠ climate.

well duh

[Phil]

This one could be a problem.

[TacomaWx]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That small of an amount of snow.  

More commonly here we can get several inches of snow in a c-zone followed by a sunny period with dry air and low dewpoints and the snow stays despite temps well above freezing until the SW wind arrives.   And then it melts amazingly fast.   But that is with the ground being completely covered... if its less than half an inch then it usually sublimates away.

This pic was taken on 2/25 this year when the temp was in the upper 40s but the dewpoint was in the 20s.   It felt really warm in the sun but there was still snow on the trees in the shaded areas.  

Was really happy that I got to see some snow in February and April since I missed December 2021 being down in texas. The late February blast was pretty impressive for that time of year. Was really nice we squeezed out some measurable snowfall from probably T-0.01” of liquid equivalent when we weren’t supposed to get anything. That was early on the 24th when it was snowing then that was how much hung on early on the morning of the 26th. 

[Phil]

18 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Hit “like” if you think Phil should just ask Tim out on a date already!

Not my type. I like legs.

[GobBluth]

Best indication of fall, since rain isn't imminent, is that the impressive ridge on Saturday and Sunday doesn't have the same heat of even two weeks.