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Another incredible sunset tonight.  This is hands down the best year I have ever seen for that.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 4

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 hour ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

And just a little more than 2 months away! ❄ Hopefully the first sign of the longer range models picking up on Alaskan blocking for early winter.

A flip has to come eventually.  When the dry / ridgy pattern drags on and on like this it often flips very hard when it does.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 4

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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6 minutes ago, ChrisAmunRA said:

Hopefully this really is the last couple of 80 degree days this Sunday-Tuesday for the Puget Sound and Willamette Valley

Pretty likely.  Interestingly there have only been 3 or 4 80+ days in the Puget Sound area this month.  Pretty pedestrian for that stat.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 4

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 hour ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

The 4 people are safe and survived, no word yet on the horses however.

 

I'm guessing the horses are ok.  Apparently parts of that island are nearly 100 feet elevation.  Certainly high enough to be above any storm surge or wave action.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 4

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Pretty likely.  Interestingly there have only been 3 or 4 80+ days in the Puget Sound area this month.  Pretty pedestrian for that stat.

What was the latest 80?

Know thyself and you shall know the Gods!!!!

All things are possible, who you are is limited by who you think you are!!!!

☥𓂀

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4 minutes ago, ChrisAmunRA said:

What was the latest 80?

The last one this month was on the 10th both for SEA and here.  Pretty shocking when you look at the month to date average.  The latest on record for SEA was October 14 way back in 1961.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 4

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The last one this month was on the 10th both for SEA and here.  Pretty shocking when you look at the month to date average.  The latest on record for SEA was October 14 way back in 1961.

Dang!!! I'd imagine for North Bend, Spanaway or other warmer locations during warmer days had later dates. 

Know thyself and you shall know the Gods!!!!

All things are possible, who you are is limited by who you think you are!!!!

☥𓂀

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9 minutes ago, ChrisAmunRA said:

Dang!!! I'd imagine for North Bend, Spanaway or other warmer locations during warmer days had later dates. 

I think some places a bit south had 80s much more recently.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 4

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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2 hours ago, T-Town said:

The video doesn’t work for me but I was on I-5 SB and 16 WB during the peak of the sunset and it was spectacular.  

As I mentioned earlier this has been the year of amazing sunsets.  Never seen so many spectacular ones like this year.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 4

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

As I mentioned earlier this has been the year of amazing sunsets.  Never seen so many spectacular ones like this year.

The one on August 9th right before some thunderstorms in the area was definitely my favorite. I only saw some distant lightning but the sunset was amazing.

 

20220809_203121.jpg

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2 hours ago, Jginmartini said:

Just watched it again and noticed that there was a big party in your neighborhood tonight!

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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24 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Book it.

 
500h_anom.conus.png

I still don't like that trough being in the east.  Could just be a transition artifact though.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 4

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Does anyone have the link for the running graphs on current global temperature?  I lost the link.  The monthly data I have access to only goes through July at present.  At that time there was no warming being noted from the Hunga Tonga volcano.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 4

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Does anyone have the link for the running graphs on current global temperature?  I lost the link.  The monthly data I have access to only goes through July at present.  At that time there was no warming being noted from the Hunga Tonga volcano.

I only have the UAH one from Roy Spencer. If you want it, here you go:

https://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/

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50F and clear in downtown Springfield.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 4F (Dec 1, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 13 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 0.5"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 0

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @363jerseys4hope

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3 hours ago, DJ Droppin said:
00z GFS Wishcasting
Day 10-16 GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly, Rainfall totals, Snowfall totals.
HERE WE GO! The first real deal big league trough of the Fall season way out in la-la land! Models have begun to show the infamous wishcasting/eye candy type stuff in the Day 10-16 time frame and that will only become more common throughout the Fall and Winter months. I often wonder why any model extends out that far as the degree of accuracy is nearly non-existent. BUT dang it isn't it fun to look at! YEAH it is. This isn't to be taken seriously it's more of a "What IF?" post, plus it's boring right now. I think you figured that out though. C'MON!!!!
 
 

floop-gfs-2022092500.qpf_acc.us_nw.gif

floop-gfs-2022092500.500h_anom_na.gif

floop-gfs-2022092500.sn10_acc.us_nw.gif

Always nice having you back!😎

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Cold Season 2022/23:

Total snowfall: 44"

Highest daily snowfall: 18"

Deepest snow depth: 16"

Coldest high: 8ºF

Coldest low: -7ºF

Number of subzero days: 6

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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3 hours ago, DJ Droppin said:
00z GFS Wishcasting
Day 10-16 GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly, Rainfall totals, Snowfall totals.
HERE WE GO! The first real deal big league trough of the Fall season way out in la-la land! Models have begun to show the infamous wishcasting/eye candy type stuff in the Day 10-16 time frame and that will only become more common throughout the Fall and Winter months. I often wonder why any model extends out that far as the degree of accuracy is nearly non-existent. BUT dang it isn't it fun to look at! YEAH it is. This isn't to be taken seriously it's more of a "What IF?" post, plus it's boring right now. I think you figured that out though. C'MON!!!!
 
 

floop-gfs-2022092500.qpf_acc.us_nw.gif

floop-gfs-2022092500.500h_anom_na.gif

floop-gfs-2022092500.sn10_acc.us_nw.gif

Rob is back... the most definite sign of the seasons changing!    Hope all is well.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer

No sign of fall.

  • Sun 1
  • Snow 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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51 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

06Z GFS and 00Z EPS both were really dry over the next 2 weeks...

gfs-deterministic-namer-qpf_anom_16day-5468000.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-qpf_anom_15day-5360000.png

Looks like the same map for the past 3 1/2 months for the NW. So many long-term models have had us cooler and wetter than normal only for it to never materialize.
 

I’m not buying any rainfall until it is within day 5 and it is consistent amongst the models. 

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Smoke looks more widespread from Seattle to Bellingham this morning from the Bolt Creek fire.   West side fires are definitely more prone to smoldering for long periods of time.    And given what the models are showing this might continue well into October.  

COD-GOES-West-subregional-Pac_NW.truecolor.20220925.144617-over=map-bars=.gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Looks like the same map for the past 3 1/2 months for the NW. So many long-term models have had us cooler and wetter than normal only for it to never materialize.
 

I’m not buying any rainfall until it is within day 5 and it is consistent amongst the models. 

Totally agree.   I need to see it within 5 days to believe there will be meaningful rainfall.  People have been talking about how great model runs look in the long range since August and almost none of it has happened.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 hours ago, smerfylicious said:

I only have the UAH one from Roy Spencer. If you want it, here you go:

https://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/

Thanks!  Better than what I have a link to, but still not the one I had in mind.  No sign of out of the ordinary SH warming in August.  The people saying the volcano will cause warming may be wrong.  The eruption put a lot of salt into the atmosphere as well as some sulfuric aerosols.  The combination may be enough to offset warming.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 4

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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I guess the only good thing right now is at least the min temps have come back into line.  I've had mostly 40s for the last 8 to 10 days now.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 4

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Summer pattern seems to have terminated out here. Earliest I can remember it happening. Maybe 2014 was similar but it was a slower transition than this.

Weird year.

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  • Longtimer

Nothing better than early mornings at the lake. Reminds me of when I was a kid and would head out in my small fishing boat at sunrise in search of the big one! Chilly morning in the 40’s but wow really cannot beat this weather. So glad we got a good little shot of rain the other morning, it really perked up the vegetation around my property. 

2E82D165-EFBA-4DEB-B094-505549705C73.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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10 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Nothing better than early mornings at the lake. Reminds me of when I was a kid and would head out in my small fishing boat at sunrise in search of the big one! Chilly morning in the 40’s but wow really cannot beat this weather. So glad we got a good little shot of rain the other morning, it really perked up the vegetation around my property. 

2E82D165-EFBA-4DEB-B094-505549705C73.jpeg

Heading out on the water today... can't pass up an 80+ degree sunny weekend day in late September.   

And would love some rain too.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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30 minutes ago, Phil said:

Summer pattern seems to have terminated out here. Earliest I can remember it happening. Maybe 2014 was similar but it was a slower transition than this.

Weird year.

Very.  I can't quite figure out what's going on.

BTW...do you have the link for global temps that is updated daily?

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 4

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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We have a solid signal for an MJO wave now.  That should get things moving a bit.  Hopefully in our favor.

ECMF_BC.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 4

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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12Z GFS is wetter for next Sunday compared to its 00Z run.    Now it has to stay consistent for a few runs and get to within 5 days.  

gfs-deterministic-nw-precip_24hr_inch-4766000.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

53˚F overnight. Yesterday's max was 73. The sun is nice, but I really am ready for some rain, and so are the plants.

It is insanely dry here.  Even the weeds have totally stopped growing.  Dropped to 47 here last night.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 4

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS is wetter for next Sunday compared to its 00Z run.    Now it has to stay consistent for a few runs and get to within 5 days.  

gfs-deterministic-nw-precip_24hr_inch-4766000.png

Gfs and cmc have been showing rain for the last couple days now. Looks like it’s 4-5 days out. 

22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-2

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-2.7”

Monthly rainfall-0.02”

Wet season rainfall-7.22”

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I've had 0.39" in the last 97 days.  Seems almost impossible.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 4

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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