PNW September 2022 Wx Obs/Disc

[TT-SEA]

14 hours ago, Phil said:

Temp in North Bend has dropped 20°F in 4 hours. Now that’s radiational cooling.  

Temp in North Bend has gone up 25 degrees in just 3 hours... even more impressive!   Heading to around 80 this afternoon. 

[snow_wizard]

Getting smokey out there.  Nothing on the visible sat pic.  Hopefully it's just somebody burning something.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Getting smokey out there.  Nothing on the visible sat pic.  Hopefully it's just somebody burning something.

Crystal clear here... better than yesterday.  Must be a local source there.

[snow_wizard]

40 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I don't know, I'm leaning Climate Change. you know the elephant in the room people conveniently ignore 

Our autumns have generally featured some decently cool and active weather in recent years even after the hot summers.  This duration of a warm / dry pattern in a multi year Nina is pretty much unheard of.  Climate change wouldn't account for such a change in one year.  There is much more at play this year.  If we are still in this pattern come October 10 or so I will be very concerned for our winter prospects.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Crystal clear here... better than yesterday.  Must be a local source there.

I hope it's not a brush fire or something like that.

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

Best indication of fall, since rain isn't imminent, is that the impressive ridge on Saturday and Sunday doesn't have the same heat of even two weeks.

And the cool nights.  The change in mins here has been pretty dramatic.

[snow_wizard]

At least the 12z GFS was slightly better than the train wreck 6z.

[jcmcgaffey]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Crystal clear here... better than yesterday.  Must be a local source there.

It’s everywhere. Drove from seattle to Preston and there is a bit of smoke and strong smell even in Preston. It’s getting pushed down from the north winds. You are probably protected. 

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Our autumns have generally featured some decently cool and active weather in recent years even after the hot summers.  This duration of a warm / dry pattern in a multi year Nina is pretty much unheard of.  Climate change wouldn't account for such a change in one year.  There is much more at play this year.  If we are still in this pattern come October 10 or so I will be very concerned for our winter prospects.

I hope we’ve moved beyond the October = destiny stuff that has been throughly disproved over the last decade.

I’m sure you would have hated Sep/Oct 1988.

[Kayla]

Kind of neat to see all this low level stratus pushed up against the Rockies today due to the cold air advection with this little clipper system. Not all that different to marine air push for you guys.

Chilly, raw day with a current temp of just 47F at noon. Should struggle to hit 50 today.

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, jcmcgaffey said:

It’s everywhere. Drove from seattle to Preston and there is a bit of smoke and strong smell even in Preston. It’s getting pushed down from the north winds. You are probably protected. 

There was definitely a smoky smell here yesterday... but none today.    Maybe because there is more of an east wind here today pushing it out.  

[Kayla]

26 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Crystal clear here... better than yesterday.  Must be a local source there.

HRRR does show that it could get pretty nasty there this afternoon. Might just be the beginnings of it.

 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Kayla said:

HRRR does show that it could get pretty nasty there this afternoon. Might just be the beginnings of it.

 

Satellite indicates that is way overdone.   That looks like an explosive fire (like it was last Sunday) but the Bolt Creek fire is just smoldering now.   

[Kayla]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Satellite indicates that is way overdone.   That looks like an explosive fire (like it was last Sunday) but the Bolt Creek fire is just smoldering now.   

I feel like you are always saying that about the HRRR model but in reality the fire(s) is still pushing out a lot of smoke and the HRRR sees it. The fire is already pushing out a lot of smoke this morning before daytime mixing really gets going.

That along with the offshore winds today it seems pretty clear to me that it's going to get quite smokey in the Puget Sound later today.

 

 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Kayla said:

I feel like you are always saying that about the HRRR model but in reality the fire(s) is still pushing out a lot of smoke and the HRRR sees it. The fire is already pushing out a lot of smoke this morning before daytime mixing really gets going.

That along with the offshore winds today it seems pretty clear to me that it's going to get quite smokey in the Puget Sound later today.

 

 

Yeah... because that is vastly different than the truly "nasty" stuff we had when that fire was exploding and sun was completely blotted out to the north with ash falling.   The HRRR looks about the same as it did that day... so its hard to take it seriously.    It does look a little hazy in Seattle (there is no haze out here) but this is just a smoldering west side fire at this point and unlikely to explode again.   

[Kayla]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... because that is vastly different than the truly "nasty" stuff we had when that fire was exploding and sun was completely blotted out to the north with ash falling.   The HRRR looks about the same as it did that day... so its hard to take it seriously.    It does look a little hazy in Seattle (there is no haze out here) but this is just a smoldering west side fire at this point and unlikely to explode again.   

It isn't showing the thicker and lower level smoke arriving until 4-6pm so I guess time will tell! From what I'm seeing so far it's spot on. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Kayla said:

It isn't showing the smoke arriving until 4-6pm so I guess time will tell! From what I'm seeing so far it's spot on. 

Well that is a sun blotted out, explosive fire prediction then.   

Maybe that will be the case... just not seeing anything like that now.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF coming in quite a bit stronger with the ridging this weekend.  

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

This one could be a problem.

The models show that one hitting hard somewhere in the eastern half of the Gulf.

[snow_wizard]

35 minutes ago, Kayla said:

I feel like you are always saying that about the HRRR model but in reality the fire(s) is still pushing out a lot of smoke and the HRRR sees it. The fire is already pushing out a lot of smoke this morning before daytime mixing really gets going.

That along with the offshore winds today it seems pretty clear to me that it's going to get quite smokey in the Puget Sound later today.

 

 

Is that a blanket of fog / low clouds in Montana.  Weird for this time of year if it is.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF coming in quite a bit stronger with the ridging this weekend.  

3+ 85 degree days at PDX with at least one 90. Why not? 

[Kayla]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Is that a blanket of fog / low clouds in Montana.  Weird for this time of year if it is.

Yep, it's pretty impressive cold air advection along with some trapped low level moisture. I posted about it a few posts up!

[snow_wizard]

One interesting thing I did find is years that stay very dry well into the fall that go on to be decent winters almost always have the coldest weather of the winter in January.  Still not wild about this though.

[Omegaraptor]

So if current forecasts and models are correct, PDX may finish off September with zero sub-70 highs.

This would be the first time on record. 1974 currently holds the record with one sub-70 high.

[bainbridgekid]

73 at SEA at Noon. Running 6 degrees warmer than yesterday when they hit 77. Seems quite possible they hit 80 today.

[TacomaWx]

There’s a bit of haze…the mountain is kind of obscured but nothing too crazy so far. Still a very nice day 71 here with a nice NE breeze. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

23 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

So if current forecasts and models are correct, PDX may finish off September with zero sub-70 highs.

This would be the first time on record. 1974 currently holds the record with one sub-70 high.

Exciting analog. 

[Deweydog]

42 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

So if current forecasts and models are correct, PDX may finish off September with zero sub-70 highs.

This would be the first time on record. 1974 currently holds the record with one sub-70 high.

I had thought about this yesterday, although it gets pretty tough starting about now. Pretty much any day with consistent cloud cover is gonna stay in the 60’s.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Depressing

[Phil]

 

 

[Deweydog]

25 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Depressing

Too soon!!!!

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

 

No real signal for cold in the West.   

New England was colder than normal in all 4 years... same with Florida.  

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

No real signal for cold in the West.   

New England was colder than normal in all 4 years... same with Florida.  

A sample size of 4 is worthless. Especially with weather. There are far too many variables.

[Phishy Wx]

11 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

 

comments in the tweet suggest the GOA current state most closely resembles 1917, if so gross

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

A sample size of 4 is worthless. Especially with weather. There are far too many variables.

The signs are there...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The last time I felt this negatively about an upcoming winter was 2019-20. 

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The last time I felt this negatively about an upcoming winter was 2019-20. 

If something interesting were to happen I would guess late November or mid January but I don't really have any reasoning for that. If we don't see much cold/snow I hope we see a windstorm.

[GobBluth]

Euro operational is off on its own with the the weekend ridge heights and the longevity. 

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

Euro operational is off on its own with the the weekend ridge heights and the longevity. 

EPS is about the same for the weekend...

 

[Phishy Wx]