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  • Longtimer

Highs barely crack 50 in the Willamette Valley at the end of the run. 25 degrees cooler than the 12z. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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6 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

What do you think?

My suspicion is either we go with a poleward+zonal outcome like 1999/00 or a blocked up GOA/AK (which could be a cold/dry outcome).

The low frequency circulation does not resemble wet/stormy winters on the West Coast, but there’s a first time for everything so who knows.

Not exactly a typical year…3rd year niña and a massive load of stratospheric H2O will make for an interesting case study.

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

My suspicion is either we go with a poleward+zonal outcome like 1999/00 or a blocked up GOA/AK (which could be a cold/dry outcome).

The low frequency circulation does not resemble wet/stormy winters on the West Coast, but there’s a first time for everything so who knows.

Not exactly a typical year…3rd year niña and a massive load of stratospheric H2O will make for an interesting case study.

I've seen 1956/57 come up as an analog a few times, what do you think about that as one?

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9 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

I've seen 1956/57 come up as an analog a few times, what do you think about that as one?

I don’t think that’s a great analog. Much narrower z-cell background in addition to -QBO/solar min.

There are more viable (and more recent) analogs for seasonal scale stuff, IMO. But again, anything is possible. I don’t have the answers. 🤷 

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The GEFS keeps trending more splitty in the long range, which has been the theme for the last several months.

In general the northern jet has been both weaker and farther to the north overall.

400AC8FE-A4A9-4AD6-945B-96B1B7DBCD9C.gif

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  • Longtimer

Having Phil OUT on this winter is the first positive sign we have had in weeks. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

So pleasant this evening. Praying for rain, but enjoying the moment. 

C420151C-5FC2-4306-ADB4-6B367240FA52.jpeg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

80 at SEA today.

Decent chance they get three straight 80 degree days. Can’t imagine that’s happened often this late in the year before but I’m not sure how to efficiently look up that stat.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

2021-22: 17.75"

-12/24: 0.5"

-12/26: 8.5"

-12/27: 1.5"

-12/29-30: 4"

-1/2: 2"

-1/5: 0.5"

-2/22: 0.25"

-2/24: 0.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

2020-21: 14.5”

 

 

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Having Phil OUT on this winter is the first positive sign we have had in weeks. 

Never said I was out on the winter. Just that I don’t think there’ll be a very strong jet or wet regime in general.

Which if anything could increase the odds for continental cold and lowland snowfall. Not sure how that qualifies as me being “out” on winter.

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OK...let's lock in the 18z GFS.  Kind of fun.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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8 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Decent chance they get three straight 80 degree days. Can’t imagine that’s happened often this late in the year before but I’m not sure how to efficiently look up that stat.

The easiest way I have isn't perfect, but it says no on three, but there were two in 1987.  On the other hand it did reach the upper 80s on Oct 1, 1987 and the latest 80 was on the 14th in 1961.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

What hemlock looper moths plus the accumulated stress of summer after summer of heat and drought will do. This is what Stanley Park now looks like. Everything is fine, anyone saying the world is burning is engaged in baseless accusations.

 

IMG_0022.mov 14.26 MB · 1 download

The summer issues are more of a local phenomenon.  This general area has far exceeded pretty much anywhere on the planet for warming in the summer.  Looking at the global average today it's very close to normal.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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11 minutes ago, Phil said:

Never said I was out on the winter. Just that I don’t think there’ll be a very strong jet or wet regime in general.

Which if anything could increase the odds for continental cold and lowland snowfall. Not sure how that qualifies as me being “out” on winter.

Back in? Winter cancelled everybody.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 48"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 2.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 1.5”; December 3rd, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

I don’t think that’s a great analog. Much narrower z-cell background in addition to -QBO/solar min.

There are more viable (and more recent) analogs for seasonal scale stuff, IMO. But again, anything is possible. I don’t have the answers. 🤷 

I would have pegged 1956-57 for +QBO the way it acted.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I would have pegged 1956-57 for +QBO the way it acted.

1955/56 had downwelling +QBO.

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  • Longtimer

What are y’all’s AnaLoGz?

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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18 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

What are y’all’s AnaLoGz?

There really aren't any.  I guess 2017 and 1971, but they both have a lot of problems.  From an observed weather standpoint 2017 is better, but 1971 had +QBO.  The other one is 1999, but the summer was not even in the same ballpark as this year.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

2015

December 2015 was the wettest month on record at PDX! And we had a subfreezing high with around one inch of snow in early January here. Then February was the warmest on record and so was the rest of spring.

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24 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

There really aren't any.  I guess 2017 and 1971, but they both have a lot of problems.  From an observed weather standpoint 2017 is better, but 1971 had +QBO.  The other one is 1999, but the summer was not even in the same ballpark as this year.

I think 1967/68 is interesting from a seasonal standpoint. Also curious about 2000/01 and 1970/71.

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Can’t believe how fast this core is tightening up.

Could be a category-2 already. And almost certainly will be at some point tonight.

D139F3AD-E899-4E79-876B-D5273AFEE1F0.gif

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14 hours ago, Kayla said:

Always nice having you back!😎

Thank you.

14 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Rob is back... the most definite sign of the seasons changing!    Hope all is well.

I wonder why I just vanish sometime in April usually. I dunno. Hoping for an active Fall and blockbuster Winter. The great white arctic winter of 2022-2023. All is as well as it can be. Hopefully things will get better. Focusing on the weather and my groups is a good distraction.

 

00z ECMWF in 2 hours 16 minutes

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43 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

December 2015 was the wettest month on record at PDX! And we had a subfreezing high with around one inch of snow in early January here. Then February was the warmest on record and so was the rest of spring.

It was an El Nino also.  Not a fit.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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As far as analogs go 2008 might also be in there.  That was a second year Nina with +QBO.  The summer was a poor fit though.

38 minutes ago, Phil said:

I think 1967/68 is interesting from a seasonal standpoint. Also curious about 2000/01 and 1970/71.

I was thinking 1971 because it was second year Nina and +QBO.  The problem with 1999 and 2000 is they were both at solar max or very close.  The summers were WAY different than this year also.  Really tough year to find a match.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

As far as analogs go 2008 might also be in there.  That was a second year Nina with +QBO.  The summer was a poor fit though.

I was thinking 1971 because it was second year Nina and +QBO.  The problem with 1999 and 2000 is they were both at solar max or very close.  The summers were WAY different than this year also.  Really tough year to find a match.

2008-09 was the only winter to approach 30" of snow here I think this century, this area probably had at least 27-28"!

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1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

So we are going to have a triple Nina, back-to-back-to-back, but is there enough data of any previous ones to establish any kind of analog years to look at? I'm not so sure. A lot of unknowns and roll of the dice for the Fall and Winter.

 

00z GFS Running.... NOW

The 18z looked really nice in the long range, let's hope the 00z continues that!

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4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

So we are going to have a triple Nina, back-to-back-to-back, but is there enough data of any previous ones to establish any kind of analog years to look at? I'm not so sure. A lot of unknowns and roll of the dice for the Fall and Winter.

 

00z GFS Running.... NOW

Pretty much 1956-57, and 2000-01.  One great and one terrible.

At face value though you have to think this one has a decent shot.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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25 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Pretty much 1956-57, and 2000-01.  One great and one terrible.

At face value though you have to think this one has a decent shot.

Also 1975/76. Can’t limit analog pools to 3rd year -ENSO without rendering the sample size useless, though.

Years like, 1999/00, etc can easily be included. And I’d personally throw in 1967/68 and 1970/71 as buffers.

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49 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Thank you.

I wonder why I just vanish sometime in April usually. I dunno. Hoping for an active Fall and blockbuster Winter. The great white arctic winter of 2022-2023. All is as well as it can be. Hopefully things will get better. Focusing on the weather and my groups is a good distraction.

 

00z ECMWF in 2 hours 16 minutes

Nothing substantive occurred here since April. Except some lightning shots. Otherwise we just bitched and moaned and our contempt for each other grew and grew. Leaving in April is the only truly healthy decision one can make.

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Just now, DJ Droppin said:

Very ridgy AGAIN.

Hard to get meaningful rain within 7 days in the models.   The mid and long range is even more worthless than usual right now.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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