Jump to content
The Weather Forums

Recommended Posts

4 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Nothing substantive occurred here since April. Except some lightning shots. Otherwise we just bitched and moaned and our contempt for each other grew and grew. Leaving in April is the only truly healthy decision one can make.

Yeah…the big AR event in mid June was pretty impressive and the thunderstorms in august were cool but other than that a pretty boring warm season as is climo. 

  • Like 1

22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-3

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-5.2”

Monthly rainfall-0.56”

Wet season rainfall-7.76”

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Hard to get meaningful rain within 7 days in the models.   The mid and long range is even more worthless than usual right now.

Yeah the ensembles have also been a let down. After Day 6-7 they had routinely showed a sharp cooling trend persisting into the second week of October with temps remaining around or slightly below average with precip chances too, but 36-48 hours later back away from any pattern change. Annoying. It's not October yet, so this isn't too alarming.

 

6z GFS in 5 hours 8 minutes

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Yeah the ensembles have also been a let down. After Day 6-7 they had routinely showed a sharp cooling trend persisting into the second week of October with temps remaining around or slightly below average with precip chances too, but 36-48 hours later back away from any pattern change. Annoying. It's not October yet, so this isn't too alarming.

 

6z GFS in 5 hours 8 minutes

The ECMWF/EPS has been okay. The GFS for whatever reason has been consistently too progressive in the long range this month, basically the inverse of last spring when it was cutting off/over-digging every single trough.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

The summer issues are more of a local phenomenon.  This general area has far exceeded pretty much anywhere on the planet for warming in the summer.  Looking at the global average today it's very close to normal.

Actually:

https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/

And while it is worse here in the summer, this is where I live, and the ancient forests are one of the things I am most attached to in this area. But people would rather rationalize inaction, so here we are. May the future have mercy on our souls. (But they probably will not and we will go down as the most reviled generation in all of human existence.)

  • Like 2
It's called clown range for a reason.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

But people would rather rationalize inaction, so here we are. May the future have mercy on our souls. (But they probably will not and we will go down as the most reviled generation in all of human existence.)

There is no action the US alone can take that would affect climate to a statistically significant degree. It would have to be a global effort.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As of today we’re running +2.8. Still just 0.04” so far this month. Probably will get 0.10-0.20” before the months over but it’ll still be one of the driest Septembers I’ve ever recorded. 

22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-3

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-5.2”

Monthly rainfall-0.56”

Wet season rainfall-7.76”

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

As of today we’re running +2.8. Still just 0.04” so far this month. Probably will get 0.10-0.20” before the months over but it’ll still be one of the driest Septembers I’ve ever recorded. 

Looks about right.   And as you mentioned yesterday... a good soaking over the Bolt Creek fire with the weak system on Wednesday into Thursday which would be very helpful.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_precip_inch-4452800.png

  • Like 3
  • Rain 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Longtimer
38 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Rain for next Sunday is completely gone on the 00Z run.    Looks like another summery weekend now.

So I should wait a little longer to pull the water toys out of the lake? Was going to do that on Tuesday after enjoying an afternoon on the water tomorrow…But perhaps I will wait another week…Or three! 

  • Like 1
  • lol 1
  • Downvote 1

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, DJ Droppin said:
The seasonal increase of arctic sea ice extent has begun. Did I say that right. This Winter we might make a run for that 1981-2010 average criteria.
https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_stddev_timeseries.png

Way better than 2012.  Weren't they saying we would have ice free summers in the Arctic by now after that happened?  Shows what they know.

  • Like 3
  • Downvote 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

As of today we’re running +2.8. Still just 0.04” so far this month. Probably will get 0.10-0.20” before the months over but it’ll still be one of the driest Septembers I’ve ever recorded. 

Yeah...at least the Wednesday rain is looking pretty solid now.

  • Rain 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

75/50 on the day. 

79/47 here.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

Yeah they have been fear mongering that nonsense for years.

I wonder when the global warming fanatics will notice the predictions of doom keep getting put off.  There is nothing we are seeing that hasn't happened before.

  • Like 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We reached about 80 in the afternoon. Next two days are looking a bit too warm.

  • Sun 1

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2022-2023 snowfall totals: 2 inches

Highest snow total (per event): 1 inch: Nov 1

Most recent accumulating (non Trace) snowfall: .20 on 12/4/22

Days with any snow: 11/1/22, 11/28/22, 12/01/22 (trace), 12/02/22 (Trace)

First freeze: 11/3/22 (yes, after the first snowfall)

Coldest low: 13F (11/29/2022)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, DJ Droppin said:

Yeah the ensembles have also been a let down. After Day 6-7 they had routinely showed a sharp cooling trend persisting into the second week of October with temps remaining around or slightly below average with precip chances too, but 36-48 hours later back away from any pattern change. Annoying. It's not October yet, so this isn't too alarming.

 

6z GFS in 5 hours 8 minutes

We will be fine man. You ready to have a fuckkin' party from now til March on here?

  • Popcorn 1
  • Snow 1

Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 4F (Dec 1, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 13 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 0.5"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 0

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @363jerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z ECMWF takes Hurricane Ian just west of Florida skirting by Tampa Bay. It's not nearly as strong on this run. Models are not yet consistent with track nor intensity.

floop-ecmwf_full-2022092600.sfcwind_mslp.gom.gif

The strongest winds and heaviest rainfall stay offshore. But way too close for comfort right now for Tampa Bay.

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2022092600_78_507_380.thumb.png.47cd0b9cf1b372c96ed2016a26301070.png

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2022092600_84_507_380.thumb.png.1dd46335cc72042d1e08048bbec5d674.png

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2022092600_105_507_220.thumb.png.e55fe8fc3ab12b1e89ea2e061755fd9d.png

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Pretty discouraging EPS tonight.  I had hoped the MJO wave might shake things up.

  • Windy 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Does anyone else think the track of this hurricane is pretty bizarre?  Never seen one come up from so far south and hit the US that I can remember.  Just add it to the list of messed up sheit this year.

  • Like 1
  • Windy 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours from the last recon, new one just went through what is shaping up to be a well-defined eye. Clear and sharp pressure drop with winds dropping to 10kts and a drop to zero precip in the center. Also clear signs of strengthening, extrapolated pressure drop to roughly 975 and a more consistent eye wall wind pattern.

 

recon_NOAA2-1509A-IAN_timeseries.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Cool sunrise in progress, mid and high level clouds getting lit up real nice.

  • Like 2
  • Excited 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 48"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 2.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 1.5”; December 3rd, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Cool sunrise in progress, mid and high level clouds getting lit up real nice.

Nice...

sea sun.png

  • Like 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A9E5878C-74B9-4BDB-BB81-7926649406B2.jpeg

  • Like 7

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 48"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 2.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 1.5”; December 3rd, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

And any international efforts are opposed as well, of course.

Which is a problem. Unless India, China, and the rest of the Indo-Pacific region get on board in a significant way, whatever actions we take unilaterally will prove to be futile.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Longtimer

At this point I think a top 5 warm October is almost a lock. I'd hit the over, HARD. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Longtimer

Meh

qpf_acc.us_nw.png

  • Excited 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Currently it is 61F at my location and clear. We had to move back to our summer configuration because it was quite warm where we sleep. Tonight and tomorrow will we sleep in our office with AC and then move back to the other room on Thursday.

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2022-2023 snowfall totals: 2 inches

Highest snow total (per event): 1 inch: Nov 1

Most recent accumulating (non Trace) snowfall: .20 on 12/4/22

Days with any snow: 11/1/22, 11/28/22, 12/01/22 (trace), 12/02/22 (Trace)

First freeze: 11/3/22 (yes, after the first snowfall)

Coldest low: 13F (11/29/2022)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Pretty good article on the PV and how we may see disruptions later this fall. Also my same thoughts on why we may see a weakened jet stream this year (which isn't necessarily a bad thing for the PNW if you like cold!).

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/polar-vortex-early-disruptive-event-winter-influence-united-states-europe-fa/

  • Like 6
  • Excited 2

Cold Season 2022/23:

Total snowfall: 44"

Highest daily snowfall: 18"

Deepest snow depth: 16"

Coldest high: 8ºF

Coldest low: -7ºF

Number of subzero days: 6

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Drove over to Redmond on Saturday afternoon to catch a concert at Marymoor Park.  Hit some smoke in the pass on the way over and the way back.  wasn't terrible though and otherwise a nice ride

 

Now they are saying 86 today and 90 tomorrow.  Record highs I believe, gross

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Pretty discouraging EPS tonight.  I had hoped the MJO wave might shake things up.

I hadn’t looked at the ensembles is a couple days.  I see this morning they have morphed into a sea of warmth the next 2 weeks. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Longtimer
1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

extremes beget extremes 

Torching begets torching, never works the other way. 

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Phil unpinned this topic

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share


×
×
  • Create New...