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Sometimes things actually do trend more towards cutting off.    We always mock models for being cut-off happy but generally ignore it when it goes the other way.   

The 12Z GFS yesterday for Sunday on top... new 12Z GFS on the bottom.     

 

 

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-4712000 (1).png

 

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-precip_6hr_inch-4712000 (1).png

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-4712000.png

gfs-deterministic-namer-precip_6hr_inch-4712000.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer

We've had like 1-2 below normal lows this month. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Sometimes things actually do trend more towards cutting off.    We always mock models for being cut-off happy but generally ignore it when it goes the other way.   

The 12Z GFS yesterday for Sunday on top... new 12Z GFS on the bottom.     

 

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-precip_6hr_inch-4712000 (1).png

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-4712000 (1).png

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-4712000.png

gfs-deterministic-namer-precip_6hr_inch-4712000.png

Looks like a trend across the entire country with slow moving lows

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Only down to 52F on Sept 26? Good lord.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 4F (Dec 1, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 13 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 0.5"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 0

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

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4 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

Looks like a trend across the entire country with slow moving lows

Trending more towards cut off solutions has been an issue since July.   Models seem to assume things will suddenly become progressive after day 7 but it never actually happens.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We've had like 1-2 below normal lows this month. 

Ending last week I had a pretty decent string of normal minima with a few that edged slightly into below-normal territory, despite many afternoon maxima being above normal. Since then my nights have been on the mild side.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Only down to 52F on Sept 26? Good lord.

Average here is in the upper 40's by this time of year, and haven't seen that since last week.

If anything, I would expect Eugene's averages to be even cooler by now. You do tend to get early autumn overnight cold pretty easily in the southern WV.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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And the lovely smoke is back...

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 4F (Dec 1, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 13 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 0.5"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 0

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @363jerseys4hope

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54 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Sometimes things actually do trend more towards cutting off.    We always mock models for being cut-off happy but generally ignore it when it goes the other way.   

The 12Z GFS yesterday for Sunday on top... new 12Z GFS on the bottom.     

 

 

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-4712000 (1).png

 

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-precip_6hr_inch-4712000 (1).png

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-4712000.png

gfs-deterministic-namer-precip_6hr_inch-4712000.png

The GFS cutoff bias is usually a springtime phenomenon. Not really the case from midsummer onwards.

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3 hours ago, Phil said:

Which is a problem. Unless India, China, and the rest of the Indo-Pacific region get on board in a significant way, whatever actions we take unilaterally will prove to be futile.

But mass action starts at the individual level. Same argument applies for voting.

We as a country need to match our GHG emissions with our environmental values, not just because we have faith in other countries joining us, but because we exert *some* kind of influence on the atmosphere, be it big or small. Because we can. Because it is who we are, and who we ought to be.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 48"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 2.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 1.5”; December 3rd, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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12 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Way better than 2012.  Weren't they saying we would have ice free summers in the Arctic by now after that happened?  Shows what they know.

the Northwest passage is what they were referring to and it is ice free now.

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37 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

But mass action starts at the individual level. Same argument applies for voting.

We as a country need to match our GHG emissions with our environmental values, not just because we have faith in other countries joining us, but because we exert *some* kind of influence on the atmosphere, be it big or small. Because we can. Because it is who we are, and who we ought to be.

If it we act unilaterally it will make no difference, and the financial cost of such action(s) will leave us more vulnerable to any climate change that occurs. Pointless at best, self-destructive at worst.

Major limiting factor is that morons have been in charge of energy policy across the western hemisphere for the last decade+, and we’re bearing the consequences of that now. Particularly over the coming winter, with widespread energy shortages likely in Europe and prices through the roof just about everywhere, putting downward pressure on the global economy, limiting investment in renewable technologies.

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  • Longtimer
50 minutes ago, Phil said:

If it we act unilaterally it will make no difference, and the financial cost of such action(s) will leave us more vulnerable to any climate change that occurs. Pointless at best, self-destructive at worst.

Major limiting factor is that morons have been in charge of energy policy across the western hemisphere for the last decade+, and we’re bearing the consequences of that now. Particularly over the coming winter, with widespread energy shortages likely in Europe and prices through the roof just about everywhere, putting downward pressure on the global economy, limiting investment in renewable technologies.

Or we could just ban cars and hope the technology catches up. Open pit lithium mines vs the 0.5F increase in temps cars create? Pick your poison I guess. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer
13 minutes ago, Phil said:

00z EPS week-2 has no cold anywhere. And dry across the entire CONUS.

28E2C972-B731-45CC-A3DE-DBC0348B6DAB.png7203020D-9BB4-40A4-9803-9F26D774B0B0.png

I feel like this coming fall/winter is either going to be an all time dud or flip in a major way...

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer
1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Still trying to find a single thing to be positive about (other than the temp anomalies) for fall and beyond.....So far no luck. 

At this point it seems like we may be moving into uncharted waters. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I feel like this coming fall/winter is either going to be an all time dud or flip in a major way...

well if that early season PV interruption happens like in the article Kayla posted we'd might be looking at some fun in November

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Euro has shifted the bulk of the rain into SW WA and NW OR. Pretty decent down there on the 12z. Gfs and Cmc are more north. 

22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-3

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-5.2”

Monthly rainfall-0.56”

Wet season rainfall-7.76”

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71 here at noon after a low of 53. 71 degrees at this time of day is pretty warm for late September. 

22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-3

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-5.2”

Monthly rainfall-0.56”

Wet season rainfall-7.76”

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Just now, TacomaWx said:

Euro has shifted the bulk of the rain into SW WA and NW OR. Pretty decent down there on the 12z. Gfs and Cmc are more north. 

And then trending much warmer and very dry again for the rest of the run.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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20 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Still trying to find a single thing to be positive about (other than the temp anomalies) for fall and beyond.....So far no luck. 

Yeah hard to say. Across the West I’m more concerned about worsening drought prospects than a torch winter.

Plenty of conduits to a blocky DJF still, but an active storm track to relieve rainfall deficits might be harder to come by? Just a very muted, stagnant pattern over the NPAC.

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

And then trending much warmer and very dry again for the rest of the run.  

Yeah we’re in a very fall 2012 situation right now. It’s very bizarre how dry and warm it’s been. The last few Septembers haven’t been this way at all…which is why this year seems so weird. Of course this is also a much warmer and drier September than I’ve ever seen more so than 2012. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-3

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-5.2”

Monthly rainfall-0.56”

Wet season rainfall-7.76”

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  • Longtimer
1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Yeah we’re in a very fall 2012 situation right now. It’s very bizarre how dry and warm it’s been. The last few Septembers haven’t been this way at all…which is why this year seems so weird pretty. Of course this is also a much warmer and drier September than I’ve ever seen more so than 2012. 

Yeah it has reminded me of 2012 in a sense as well. Obviously that fall was cooler than this one, but it will be interesting to see if the storm train gets going once the pattern changes. Unfortunately there is really no indication the pattern will change... And that is a significant concern. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah it has reminded me of 2012 in a sense as well. Obviously that fall was cooler than this one, but it will be interesting to see if the storm train gets going once the pattern changes. Unfortunately there is really no indication the pattern will change... And that is a significant concern. 

Yeah it’s so d*mn dry out there right now. We need a ton of rain not a few washed out weak fronts. If the euros right could be a decent rain for you guys but would leave a lot of the Puget sound with 0.10” or less. The gfs and cmc are a bit further north on the 12z runs. 

22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-3

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-5.2”

Monthly rainfall-0.56”

Wet season rainfall-7.76”

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  • Longtimer
6 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yeah hard to say. Across the West I’m more concerned about worsening drought prospects than a torch winter.

Plenty of conduits to a blocky DJF still, but an active storm track to relieve rainfall deficits might be harder to come by? Just a very muted, stagnant pattern over the NPAC.

A splitty winter could still do it for the SW. Even with a weaker jet, like 2004-05.

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Just now, BLI snowman said:

A splitty winter could still do it for the SW. Even with a weaker jet, like 2004-05.

At least that year had a +ENSO tilt (some STJ/+AAM 10-30N). With a La Niña of this intensity I’m not sure that can be counted on. Hopefully I’m wrong.

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And this La Niña is about to get another steroid injection with the mammoth trade surge coming up. Might be the most intense of the event so far.

Starting to wonder if the La Niña is part of the problem at this point. Certainly won’t help import westerly momentum where it would be helpful.

Either way, the persistence of this base state is astounding.

E50047C3-655C-4717-8363-F223E536CF93.gif

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10 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Yeah it’s so d*mn dry out there right now. We need a ton of rain not a few washed out weak fronts. If the euros right could be a decent rain for you guys but would leave a lot of the Puget sound with 0.10” or less. The gfs and cmc are a bit further north on the 12z runs. 

12Z ECMWF just screws the Puget Sound area with the mid-week system.   

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_48hr_inch-4496000 (1).png

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF just screws the Puget Sound area with the mid-week system.   

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_48hr_inch-4496000 (1).png

Yeah oregon needs it too so atleast someone’s getting something. The gfs and cmc look different so it’ll be interesting to see where it ends up. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-3

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-5.2”

Monthly rainfall-0.56”

Wet season rainfall-7.76”

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  • Longtimer

FYI here are the years at SLE that had less that 1" of rain in September AND less than 2" of rain in October. *denotes November having above average precip. 

2018

2008

2006*

2002*

1993

1991*

1988*

1987

1983*

1964*

1952

1929

1928*

1915*

1903*

1902*

Also, October CAN be a pretty dry month in the Willamette Valley. In fact in the 1892-present period of record SLE has had under 2" 36 times in October, or almost 1/3rd of the time. There have been a couple of October's with no rain or just a few hundredths as well. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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The pattern over Eurasia at the end of the 12z ECMWF is the first “positive” development I’ve seen so far.

B2EF7D22-DFFB-4CBB-9004-FBEE3CB2E367.png

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9 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Quite Smoky here today. 

Just stepped outside for lunch, and yeah its kinda yucky up here too.  My wife and I are battling a cold that has turned into a nasty cough, and the smoke is definitely NOT helping.

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2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

The 12z ECMWF Rainfall totals ending 5 PM Thursday

The EURO has suddenly turned quite wet Wednesday-Thursday, especially for western Oregon. That figures I was going fishing in memory of my brother on that day. Cancelled now. Ensembles in agreement too. Oh well....

May be an image of map, sky and text that says 'Total QPF (in) over model run F084 Valid: 2022-09 C”ntefo ange Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) This service based products fthe ECMWF. 0.2 Init: Mon 2022- 9-26 12z ECMWF Hi-Res www.pivotabveather.com 0.01 .05 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.2 2 2.5 piv#tal weather 3 3.5'

floop-ecmwf_full-2022092612.qpf_acc.us_nw.gif

May be an image of text that says 'P1 Portland (US) 850 hPa Temp. & Precipitation P10 30 Mon, 26Sep2022 12Z 25 20 P30 P35 P34 P36 P39 P41 P43 (.)dwa 10 P40 P42 P46 Contro mean Oper 1981-2010 mean 0 10 26Sep 0Ãz 26Sep 12z 27Sep 00z 27Sep 12z 28Sep 00z 28Sep ECMWF Ensemble, 45.6N, 122.8W Date 29Sep 00z 29Sep 12z 30Sep 00z 30Sep 12z 010ct 00z Wetterzentrale.de'

Well, at least you cancelled your fishing outing. That should hopefully send most of the precip north, thank you!

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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