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EC ensemble precip totals thru hr 240

EC ensemble precip totals.png

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 4F (Dec 1, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 13 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 0.5"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 0

 

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4 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

But mass action starts at the individual level. Same argument applies for voting.

We as a country need to match our GHG emissions with our environmental values, not just because we have faith in other countries joining us, but because we exert *some* kind of influence on the atmosphere, be it big or small. Because we can. Because it is who we are, and who we ought to be.

So… do SOMETHING rather than NOTHING. Interesting idea…

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13 minutes ago, Phil said:

There’s 1967 again.

 

Looks like NOAA Gulfstream IV just finished a recon flight and is headed back to the barn.

 

https://www.flightradar24.com/NOAA49/2d9dea7e

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3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah it has reminded me of 2012 in a sense as well. Obviously that fall was cooler than this one, but it will be interesting to see if the storm train gets going once the pattern changes. Unfortunately there is really no indication the pattern will change... And that is a significant concern. 

I assume you're counting all of September as part of fall?

A forum for the end of the world.

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  • Longtimer

18z GFS made a big move towards the Euro in the short term. First soaking rain of the fall could be on tap here.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

Looks like Silver Falls ended up with the 2nd warmest August on record with a mean of 67.0. Well behind August 1967. Mostly a function of the exceptionally mild overnight lows. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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And another 90F burger...jeez.

Miami Dolphins' Myles Gaskin carves out a role in crowded backfield

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 4F (Dec 1, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 13 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 0.5"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 0

 

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  • Longtimer

List of October's with less than 1" of rain at SLE. 

2013

2008

2006

2002

1988

1987

1978

1972

1964

1952

1936

1925

1917

1911

1907

1895

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

Meanwhile it is still -35 at Newport!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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27 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

List of October's with less than 1" of rain at SLE. 

2013

2008

2006

2002

1988

1987

1978

1972

1964

1952

1936

1925

1917

1911

1907

1895

Some really cold winters in there.

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  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 4

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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I'm getting pretty bummed out now.  I thought for sure a meaningful change would be either here or definitely in sight by now.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 4

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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19 hours ago, Phil said:

Can’t believe how fast this core is tightening up.

Could be a category-2 already. And almost certainly will be at some point tonight.

D139F3AD-E899-4E79-876B-D5273AFEE1F0.gif

Looks like a volcano erupting. Crazy rapid development and intensification.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

2021-22: 17.75"

-12/24: 0.5"

-12/26: 8.5"

-12/27: 1.5"

-12/29-30: 4"

-1/2: 2"

-1/5: 0.5"

-2/22: 0.25"

-2/24: 0.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

2020-21: 14.5”

 

 

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58 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

18z GFS made a big move towards the Euro in the short term. First soaking rain of the fall could be on tap here.

Pretty unimpressive up this way.  Kind of odd to have the main rain events going south of us on two consecutive troughs this early in the season.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 4

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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  • Longtimer
1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I remember the autumn of 2012. Hated it. This is starting to feel eerily familiar.

Then it rained ALOT

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I remember the autumn of 2012. Hated it. This is starting to feel eerily familiar.

That one changed big time in the second half of October.  We'll see if that happens this time.  I just don't get what is going on this year.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 4

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm getting pretty bummed out now.  I thought for sure a meaningful change would be either here or definitely in sight by now.

Saving it for winter. 

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The 18z GFS is just flat out horrible.  That F...ing recurring Eastern trough.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 4

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

That one changed big time in the second half of October.  We'll see if that happens this time.  I just don't get what is going on this year.

Well in theory, a weak jet would provide a better chance at arctic airmasses reaching the region, all else being equal.

Downside is drought concerns are exacerbated.

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Saving it for winter. 

Perhaps.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 4

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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  • Longtimer

I would rather waste my October than key months in DJF. We had like 2 good weeks and 10 weeks of complete garbage last winter. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The 18z GFS is just flat out horrible.  That F...ing recurring Eastern trough.

That downstream trough is a response to the pattern over the Pacific, though. If/when the pattern changes it’ll probably originate from Eurasia.

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I would rather waste my October than key months in DJF. We had like 2 good weeks and 10 weeks of complete garbage last winter. 

The December event was nice here but disappointing since it was originally looking like a full on arctic blast and the February event was nice too. However NW OR underachieved on low temps because of the wind I think.

4/11/22 was forecast by the models very well and didn't disappoint! 2" of snow here in one of the most shadowed areas in onshore flow in the Portland Metro area. In April!

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Well in theory, a weak jet would provide a better chance at arctic airmasses reaching the region, all else being equal.

Downside is drought concerns are exacerbated.

I'm hating the configuration over the NE Pacific.  Just can't seem to get in a Nina mode.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 4

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I would rather waste my October than key months in DJF. We had like 2 good weeks and 10 weeks of complete garbage last winter. 

The December event was top drawer here.  Still looking for that elusive good January though.  An interesting twist to what's going on right now is it increases the chances that January will be the best month of the winter if it gets good at all.

Cold / wet October's often go hand in hand with good winters.  Not sure why people are so down on them.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 4

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm hating the configuration over the NE Pacific.  Just can't seem to get in a Nina mode.

It actually is a La Niña like circulation..note the Aleutian High. Problem is it’s very west-based.

For early season cold in Western North America you’d want a trough over the NW-Pacific.

38FCAABE-6307-43CF-8850-94701C6BC233.gif

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83/52 with some light smoke on September 26th. Hard to believe October is just a few days away with how the weathers been recently. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-2

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-2.7”

Monthly rainfall-0.02”

Wet season rainfall-7.22”

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42 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

The December event was nice here but disappointing since it was originally looking like a full on arctic blast and the February event was nice too. However NW OR underachieved on low temps because of the wind I think.

4/11/22 was forecast by the models very well and didn't disappoint! 2" of snow here in one of the most shadowed areas in onshore flow in the Portland Metro area. In April!

I have yet to see more than slushy flurries in April in the nearly 30 years I have lived in the PNW (excluding trips into the mountains, of course). The time Seattle got a significant April snowfall, I was living in Portland. When PDX did, I was living in Vancouver, BC. So it goes.

Got see plenty of ’em when I lived in the Rockies, though. And a few May snowstorms, too.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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Looking like the Wednesday system will give NW Oregon a good soaking but maybe just 0.05-0.10” up here. Nice to see some rain in the region atleast. 

22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-2

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-2.7”

Monthly rainfall-0.02”

Wet season rainfall-7.22”

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I see people complaining about aspects of winter or lamenting a possible dud...we haven't had a sub-freezing high here since the 2016-17 winter. No Arctic episodes since that point...none.

Somehow I don't feel like this area is due for a dud. We've never gone this long without an outright Arctic air intrusion.

Snow on the other hand has been plentiful. Very wet and heavy snow but I have enjoyed the fuckk out of it. It's just weird as hell to have gone this long without a true Arctic event.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 4F (Dec 1, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 13 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 0.5"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 0

 

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