PNW September 2022 Wx Obs/Disc

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, NWbyNW said:

What happened in The Autumn of 12'?  

Late onset of the rains, abyssmal mushroom season.

[MossMan]

Still quite smoky here, this was on my drive home. 

[NWbyNW]

It seems like the rain and cooler air is never gonna come.  Heat forever in the PNW now...

In all seriousness, the smoke is back for the majority of the Puget Sound and parts of Western Oregon.  Here are some maps and satellite images.  Most locations are now at moderate with some unhealthy thrown in.  Don't expect conditions to improve until we finally get this blasted heat away, some rain, and onshore flower.  We've been promised rain for many weeks now, and it never comes as forecasted.  

I'm grumpy about this.

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Late onset of the rains, abyssmal mushroom season.

The mushroom season is really the most important thing... collecting fungus in the forest is all we care about.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

30 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I see people complaining about aspects of winter or lamenting a possible dud...we haven't had a sub-freezing high here since the 2016-17 winter. No Arctic episodes since that point...none.

Somehow I don't feel like this area is due for a dud. We've never gone this long without an outright Arctic air intrusion.

Snow on the other hand has been plentiful. Very wet and heavy snow but I have enjoyed the fuckk out of it. It's just weird as hell to have gone this long without a true Arctic event.

Yeah I’m trying to talk myself into it today! 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

18 hours ago, DJ Droppin said:

Yeah for sure. Don't want to see future runs shift that any further east.

Now the 18z EURO has landfall just south of Tampa Bay.

 

[Phishy Wx]

'shrooms are very important for communicating with nature.  bummer on the season being a dud.  do not like

[Gradient Keeper]

6 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Now the 18z EURO has landfall just south of Tampa Bay.

 

Not good!

[snow_wizard]

Low clouds are already surging inland.  Tomorrow should be quite a bit cooler.

[Phil]

Yikes..18z EPS is ugly for Tampa. Consensus track is actually right over my Dad’s house in Bradenton.

Might fly/drive down there last minute. We’ll see.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Phishy Wx said:

forecast High for tomorrow in Spokane is 89. the previous record was 87 in, drumroll please

 

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1967!!

 

The thing is the 500mb pattern that brought the hot September in 1967 was totally different than this year.  That year there were many more hot days than this year.  This September's warmth is mainly from high mins the first half of the month.

That was only a first year Nina also.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Low clouds are already surging inland.  Tomorrow should be quite a bit cooler.

ECMWF shows patchy low clouds getting into Seattle for a couple hours tomorrow morning but also shows 79 for a high in the afternoon... which is the same high temp it showed for today.     It seems like it would have to be a little cooler if low clouds make it into Seattle in the morning even if they are gone by 9 or 10 a.m.

[snow_wizard]

55 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

It seems like the rain and cooler air is never gonna come.  Heat forever in the PNW now...

In all seriousness, the smoke is back for the majority of the Puget Sound and parts of Western Oregon.  Here are some maps and satellite images.  Most locations are now at moderate with some unhealthy thrown in.  Don't expect conditions to improve until we finally get this blasted heat away, some rain, and onshore flower.  We've been promised rain for many weeks now, and it never comes as forecasted.  

I'm grumpy about this.

 

Me too.  Not at all what I expected.

[Doinko]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The thing is the 500mb pattern that brought the hot September in 1967 was totally different than this year.  That year there were many more hot days than this year.  This September's warmth is mainly from high mins the first half of the month.

That was only a first year Nina also.

Decent snowstorm in January 1968 though. ~5" of snow and sustained east winds of 30mph at one point here from the COOP station.

[snow_wizard]

The interesting thing to see is whether we will come out of this with a predominately cold pattern or a wet one.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Doiinko said:

Decent snowstorm in January 1968 though. ~5" of snow and sustained east winds of 30mph at one point here.

The winter was ok until the ugly torch in Feb.  I would consider it a disappointment, but not a total bust.

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The winter was ok until the ugly torch in Feb.  I would consider it a disappointment, but not a total bust.

11.6" of snow is pretty good in my opinion. And a temp of 23 in mid April. Obviously the next winter's 39" was much better though!

[Phil]

12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The thing is the 500mb pattern that brought the hot September in 1967 was totally different than this year.  That year there were many more hot days than this year.  This September's warmth is mainly from high mins the first half of the month.

That was only a first year Nina also.

I think 1967 is a decent 500mb match, actually.

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The interesting thing to see is whether we will come out of this with a predominately cold pattern or a wet one.

What if its just normal with rain on many days but nothing extreme and some dry days mixed in and temps around average?    

[TacomaWx]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

What if its just normal with rain on many days but nothing extreme and some dry days mixed in and temps around average?    

Don’t be silly tim. We don’t do normal anymore it’s only extremes. 

[T-Town]

1 hour ago, Phishy Wx said:

'shrooms are very important for communicating with nature.  bummer on the season being a dud.  do not like

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just a reminder. PDX had measurable snow the 2nd week of April. Impossible is nothing!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

45 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yikes..18z EPS is ugly for Tampa. Consensus track is actually right over my Dad’s house in Bradenton.

Might fly/drive down there last minute. We’ll see.

Quite a shift east from the 12z EPS. A lot of members now take Ian across the Florida peninsula. Hopefully we can get some solid model agreement on the 00z runs tonight so we can shrink down the cone.

 

[Doinko]

10 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Quite a shift east from the 12z EPS. A lot of members now take Ian across the Florida peninsula. Hopefully we can get some solid model agreement on the 00z runs tonight so we can shrink down the cone.

 

Is it looking like Ian will bottom out as a Cat 3 or a Cat 4?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

6 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Is it looking like Ian will bottom out as a Cat 3 or a Cat 4?

NHC currently has it bottoming out at 120 knots, close to 140 mph so Cat 4.

[High Desert Mat?]

[High Desert Mat?]

Just now, High Desert Mat? said:

This is where my brother in law lives right now. Where the white dot is. He said he’ll do fine since he has shutters and beer. 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

Here’s some truly incredible PDX weather stats of late:

No high temp below 70 degrees for 98 days. 

Not been below 50 degrees for 127 days. 

<.25’’ of rain in the past 99 days.

58 out of the last 63 days have been warmer than normal including a streak of 40 in a row.

Hottest week ever in July, hottest month ever in August, hottest September ever.

[ChrisAmunRA]

79° for the high here in Belltown Seattle today

[ChrisAmunRA]

Spanaway had high of 87°

[Frontal Snowsquall]

49 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

 

48 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

This is where my brother in law lives right now. Where the white dot is. He said he’ll do fine since he has shutters and beer. 

New NHC track. Landfall just north of Tampa Bay.

 

[ChrisAmunRA]

[Phil]

NHC just updated the hurricane warning for my Dad’s location in Sarasota. Yikes.  

[MossMan]

After over a year on the wait list it finally came today! 
In other news…80/53 on the day, currently 61. 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, High Desert Mat? said:

This is where my brother in law lives right now. Where the white dot is. He said he’ll do fine since he has shutters and beer. 

Ha, just 15 minutes away from where my cousin is staying.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

17 minutes ago, Phil said:

NHC just updated the hurricane warning for my Dad’s location in Sarasota. Yikes.  

D**n, how far is his house from the bay?

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS shows 44 inches of rain around Tampa... and 3 inches a little farther south.

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z GFS shows 44 inches of rain around Tampa... and 3 inches a little farther south.

Wonder what would happen if 44” fell in the Seattle area.  

[Snownerd3000]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

I think 1967 is a decent 500mb match, actually.

What was the winter of 67-68 like?

[ChrisAmunRA]

18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z GFS shows 44 inches of rain around Tampa... and 3 inches a little farther south.

How does the winds look there?

[Phil]

12 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

What was the winter of 67-68 like?

Dec/Jan were troughy, Feb went full blown +PNA.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

13 minutes ago, Phil said:

Wonder what would happen if 44” fell in the Seattle area.  

Tim would go jet-skiing.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, ChrisAmunRA said:

How does the winds look there?

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

23 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z GFS shows 44 inches of rain around Tampa... and 3 inches a little farther south.

Wow, that's more rainfall than what SEA or PDX gets in a year. 

[ChrisAmunRA]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

 

Pretty strong winds but that rain looks more concerning 

[Phil]

Just now, ChrisAmunRA said:

Pretty strong winds but that rain looks more concerning 

GFS is awful with surface winds too.

[TT-SEA]

18Z ECMWF...

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Tim would go jet-skiing.

Would be the first time ever... I have actually never jet-skied in my life.  

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

I think 1967 is a decent 500mb match, actually.

The offshore low was much deeper than this year.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

34 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z GFS shows 44 inches of rain around Tampa... and 3 inches a little farther south.

Almost as bad as the Seattle/PDX typical gradient.