PNW September 2022 Wx Obs/Disc

[ChrisEl Elyon]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

 

Pretty strong winds but that rain looks more concerning 

[Phil]

Just now, ChrisAmunRA said:

Pretty strong winds but that rain looks more concerning 

GFS is awful with surface winds too.

[TT-SEA]

18Z ECMWF...

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Tim would go jet-skiing.

Would be the first time ever... I have actually never jet-skied in my life.  

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

I think 1967 is a decent 500mb match, actually.

The offshore low was much deeper than this year.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

34 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z GFS shows 44 inches of rain around Tampa... and 3 inches a little farther south.

Almost as bad as the Seattle/PDX typical gradient.

[Phil]

42 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

D**n, how far is his house from the bay?

About 15 miles I think. Will have to check.

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The offshore low was much deeper than this year.

Geopotential heights were lower back then. It wasn’t actually all that different, relatively speaking.

Can’t nitpick with this stuff. It’s a decent match. Whether that continues remains to be seen, of course.

[Phil]

There was a flip to a cooler/stormier pattern in October 1967. Will have to see if that happens this year.

[Phil]

2010 is an interesting analog. Has performed well in the WPAC and the upcoming pattern bears some resemblance.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Geopotential heights were lower back then. It wasn’t actually all that different, relatively speaking.

Can’t nitpick with this stuff. It’s a decent match. Whether that continues remains to be seen, of course.

I guess you have to call it a decent match when you look at the observed weather.  I think multi year Ninas carry more weight though.  At any rate I'm not a fan of the way this is playing out.

[TacomaWx]

Does not feel like a late September evening still 68 outside. 

[Phil]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

At any rate I'm not a fan of the way this is playing out.

It’s late September, my friend. What happens now has no bearing on what will happen this winter. I’m certain you would’ve hated Sep/Oct 1988.

[Meatyorologist]

2 hours ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Here’s some truly incredible PDX weather stats of late:

No high temp below 70 degrees for 98 days. 

Not been below 50 degrees for 127 days. 

<.25’’ of rain in the past 99 days.

58 out of the last 63 days have been warmer than normal including a streak of 40 in a row.

Hottest week ever in July, hottest month ever in August, hottest September ever.

Just your typical, reasonable snapback from the like thirteenth coldest Spring on record

[snow_wizard]

September SOI looks like it will be the highest since 2010 and second highest of the century so far.  This is a very healthy Nina although you wouldn't know it by looking around.

[snow_wizard]

15 minutes ago, Phil said:

It’s late September, my friend. What happens now has no bearing on what will happen this winter. I’m certain you would’ve hated Sep/Oct 1988.

I did hate 1988.  I still remember it.  I get what you're saying.

[snow_wizard]

9 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Just your typical, reasonable snapback from the like thirteenth coldest Spring on record

Not really.  This summer was pretty ridiculous for rank for both temp and precip.  There was no reason to expect it to drag on.

[snow_wizard]

The GFS is a dumpster fire until the final third of the run where it does turn pretty nice.

BTW...I'm sure this is the mode Jesse was waiting for me to get into.  One thing you can count on from this climate is to eventually be very disappointed at some point.  That is pretty much true no matter what kind of weather you like.

[Deweydog]

We’ve lost Jim.

Things are looking up for a downturn.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

We’ve lost Jim.

Things are looking up for a downturn.

Probably so.  It seems like when I give up is when things turn.  It's not something I can fake either.

[MossMan]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Would be the first time ever... I have actually never jet-skied in my life.  

I began riding one when I was about 6yrs old. My uncle had two Kawasaki stand ups from the late 1970’s that I rode (back when nobody cared about boating laws and the lakes were a free for all lol) 

Now I really enjoy my sit down comfy rides! 

 

[Skagit Weather]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Wonder what would happen if 44” fell in the Seattle area.  

At least Florida is flat. I feel like most of the built up hillsides in the Puget Sound would just wash away if 44" fell in a day.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

At least Florida is flat. I feel like most of the built up hillsides in the Puget Sound would just wash away if 44" fell in a day.

Indeed.  It would be catastrophic.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

About 15 miles I think. Will have to check.

Some distance then from the bay then which is good at least. The 00z EURO is showing Ian making landfall between Venice and Sarasota just before sunset on Wednesday.

[Phil]

00z Euro has 160mph gusts just offshore upon approach.

[bainbridgekid]

GFS spits out three more straight 80 degree days next week for SEA including a high of 86 next Monday October 3rd. Getting into uncharted territories at this point.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

00z Euro has 160mph gusts just offshore upon approach.

Bullseye right on Tampa Bay for the heaviest rainfall.

[Skagit Weather]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Indeed.  It would be catastrophic.

Fortunately, it appears that would be slightly outside of the 100 year 24 hour maximum expected precipitation for Puget Sound. Of course, October 20, 2003 significantly exceeded the expected one in a hundred year value at SEA (5.02") which I find hard to believe, but I guess it makes sense since it's only happened once in the last century.

On the other hand, if close to 40" does fall with Ian in Florida it should be right up there with what is meteorologically possible.

[Phil]

31 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Fortunately, it appears that would be slightly outside of the 100 year 24 hour maximum expected precipitation for Puget Sound. Of course, October 20, 2003 significantly exceeded the expected one in a hundred year value at SEA (5.02") which I find hard to believe, but I guess it makes sense since it's only happened once in the last century.

On the other hand, if close to 40" does fall with Ian in Florida it should be right up there with what is meteorologically possible.

There’s something wrong with that map. Maximum PWATs here are much higher than up in PA/OH, as are our rainfall records.

In fact, Unionville MD holds the world record for most rainfall within 1 minute (1.23”).

[Skagit Weather]

18 minutes ago, Phil said:

There’s something wrong with that map. Maximum PWATs here are much higher than up in PA/OH, as are our rainfall records.

In fact, Unionville MD holds the world record for most rainfall within 1 minute (1.23”).

I mean it's still showing upwards of 28-30" in a 24 hour period for your area which is not exactly a dry day. It comes from middle of the century Army Corps of Engineers data though so it could be outdated/incorrect.

[Gradient Keeper]

Well, this isn't good.

2:20 AM Hurricane Ian

Cat 3: 125mph - Pressure 952mb

00z EURO forecast 8 AM EDT: 966mb. Ian is at least 14mb stronger than modeled.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Ian is going Cat 5 today. MBG

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I think the hurricane is going to be very bad.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

19 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Ian is going Cat 5 today. MBG

 

10 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I think the hurricane is going to be very bad.

Latest NHC track has it making landfall around Bradenton Beach as a category 3 and tracking right through Tampa Bay. Not good news at all.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

6 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

 

Latest NHC track has it making landfall around Bradenton Beach as a category 3 and tracking right through Tampa Bay. Not good news at all.

 

It seems like models are moving away from previous solutions of stalling Ian west of Tampa for 2-3 days. I guess that's good.

[TT-SEA]

06 ECMWF gives western Oregon a decent soaking... pretty impressive for a ULL that is weakening fast as it moves inland.

[TT-SEA]

06 ECMWF shifted a little west compared to the 00Z run.    But it basically stalls right over the Tampa area.

Ironic that we have been talking about a dead hurricane season and now we might have a Tampa version of Katrina.

[TT-SEA]

Based on the projected temps through Friday... this will likely end up being the 3rd or 4th warmest September at SEA.   Right now the average temp is at 65.2 for the month but the next couple of days will likely bring it down to around 64.8 

September

1967 - 65.67

2020 - 65.52

2022 - 64.80 (?)

2014 - 64.77

2017 - 64.68

 

Assuming SEA ends up at 64.8 for September... that would put the July - Sept average temp at 68.0 which is the warmest ever for that period at SEA.    Interesting that 2015 is not even in the top 5 as that year peaked earlier.

July - September

2022 - 68.00 (?)

1967 - 67.73

2014 - 67.70

2017 - 67.42

2018 - 67.27

The top 10 also includes 2013, 2020, 2015, and 2019.     8 of the 10 warmest July - Sept periods have happened in the last 10 years.

The two years in the last decade that did not reach the top 10 are 2016 and 2021.    Those years ended up 15th and 13th respectively for the July - Sept period.   2016 and 2021 peaked earlier.    The warmest Apr-Jun period ever was in 2016.  And 2021 was 5th on the list for that period.

 

 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

Nice mid-July morning. Oh wait…

[SilverFallsAndrew]

They better not postpone Sunday night football.

[TT-SEA]

Another interesting stat for the traditional warm season (May-Sept)... 9 of the last 10 years have been warmer than the infamous warm season of 1958.

In order:

2015 - 65.45

2018 - 65.12

2013 - 64.86

2014 - 64.84

2019 - 64.70

2017 - 64.62

2020 - 64.31

1967 - 64.26

2021 - 64.06

2016 - 64.01

1958 - 63.89

 

And thanks to the near record cold May... 2022 is the one year that will not make that list!    This year will end up at 63.54 for the May - Sept period.   Obviously 2022 has been making up for lost ground fast since May but will still fall short.

 

[Phil]

54” of rain? That’s north bend caliber stuff.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

54” of rain? That’s north bend caliber stuff.

So true... very tropical here.   54 inches in 2 days is actually pretty common.   

[Meatyorologist]

52F here. 56F at KSEA

[TT-SEA]

Looks like the ECMWF was too aggressive with the low clouds this morning... they barely made it OLM and its patchy even down there.  

[Chewbacca Defense]

7 hours ago, MossMan said:

I began riding one when I was about 6yrs old. My uncle had two Kawasaki stand ups from the late 1970’s that I rode (back when nobody cared about boating laws and the lakes were a free for all lol) 

Now I really enjoy my sit down comfy rides! 

 

Never ridden on the sit on top, but I did get to ride one of the standup models.  My godmother had a 3-5 acre lake in her front yard (her property was about 30-40 acres), and her son brought his jet skis out one weekend when I was about 8 or 9.  Fortunately (for me) it was his nephew and not me that figured out that when you cut power on those you lose steering.  We were racing across the lake, and there was a dock in the middle.  When he realized he was headed for it, he cut power and turned the handlebars.  Plowed right into it.  Filleted his leg open pretty good and destroyed the jet ski.

That lesson came in very handy many years later when I worked Marine Patrol in Oregon running jet boats up and down the Willamette. 

 

On the weather side of things, got down to 51 last night, and lots of mid-level smoke in the air this morning.

[MossMan]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

They better not postpone Sunday night football.

Hopefully Tom Brady is boarded up his windows and is removing his pool furniture. 

Edited September 27, 2022 by MossMan

[T-Town]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

They better not postpone Sunday night football.

I heard the game is moving to Martha’s Vineyard. 

[Timmy]

First day of fog this season.  Pretty dense!

[T-Town]

5 minutes ago, Timmy said:

First day of fog this season.  Pretty dense!

Fog here as well.