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The degree of ridging/split flow is impressive for a niña of this intensity, as modeled. Very reminiscent of 1988, though even that year had a better established northern jet.

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  • Longtimer

Ensembles are a sea of warmth. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Based on the projected temps through Friday... this will likely end up being the 3rd or 4th warmest September at SEA.   Right now the average temp is at 65.2 for the month but the next couple of days will likely bring it down to around 64.8 

September

1967 - 65.67

2020 - 65.52

2022 - 64.80 (?)

2014 - 64.77

2017 - 64.68

 

Assuming SEA ends up at 64.8 for September... that would put the July - Sept average temp at 68.0 which is the warmest ever for that period at SEA.    Interesting that 2015 is not even in the top 5 as that year peaked earlier.

July - September

2022 - 68.00 (?)

1967 - 67.73

2014 - 67.70

2017 - 67.42

2018 - 67.27

The top 10 also includes 2013, 2020, 2015, and 2019.     8 of the 10 warmest July - Sept periods have happened in the last 10 years.

The two years in the last decade that did not reach the top 10 are 2016 and 2021.    Those years ended up 15th and 13th respectively for the July - Sept period.   2016 and 2021 peaked earlier.    The warmest Apr-Jun period ever was in 2016.  And 2021 was 5th on the list for that period.

 

 

 

28EA2649-92EC-4838-9358-ECEF48745570.gif

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4 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

06 ECMWF gives western Oregon a decent soaking... pretty impressive for a ULL that is weakening fast as it moves inland.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_precip_inch-4517600.png

Interesting that it upped the totals here while the 12z gfs is basically dry. Cmc is around 0.10”. You’d figure the models would’ve had a better grasp on this a couple days ago. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-3

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-5.2”

Monthly rainfall-0.56”

Wet season rainfall-7.76”

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16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Ian seems to be strengthen after emerging back over the water.

CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-regional-gulf-02-16_56Z-20220927_map_-38-1n-10-100.gif

Looks like it's just starting to interact with the exit region of the Loop Current which should give it a nice boost in intensity. Question then becomes how much it weakens as it nears the coastline. 

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Weather station: https://sodakweather.com

Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx

 

 

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Hot towers exploding in the upshear flank of the eyewall w/ intense lightning activity. Indicative of rapid intensification. Would not surprise me if peak intensity ends up higher than NHC projections.

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  • Longtimer

Nice day. Best weather in the nation. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Nice day. Best weather in the nation. 

Agreed were it not for the smoke.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 4F (Dec 1, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 13 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 0.5"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 0

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @363jerseys4hope

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67 and hazy here. Euro shows about 0.20” here with the upcoming system…totals have gone up a bit the last couple runs but the bullseye is still down in Oregon. 

69B248F3-BD50-4175-9DD8-29A0464C3B64.jpeg

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-3

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-5.2”

Monthly rainfall-0.56”

Wet season rainfall-7.76”

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Better all around for the Tampa area.

ecmwf-deterministic-southfl-total_precip_inch-4503200.png

That strip of purple goes right over my Dad’s place.

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Better all around for the Tampa area.

ecmwf-deterministic-southfl-total_precip_inch-4503200.png

Looks like ECMWF is already about 20 mb too high (10 am forecast is 976 mb while 11 a.m. update has it at 955 mb) so I wonder if that strength could affect the track.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 7.3"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75"

2022-23: Tr (11/7: Tr, 11/29: Flakes, 11/30: Flakes, 12/1: Flakes, 12/2: Tr)

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  • Longtimer

Working from the park office today. 

9053FA36-5E89-417F-BD80-7814AD24DB1E.jpeg

6F3F897E-7491-4359-AAB8-5DF4775B999B.jpeg

01A726AE-F3EE-4182-BFEC-778360FED9A8.jpeg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Anybody else still watering their grass? I never thought I would water going into October 

I gave up on the lawn.   I have never seen my lawn this brown ever... let alone almost into October.   I am waiting for some consistent rain to do reseeding.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Working from the park office today. 

9053FA36-5E89-417F-BD80-7814AD24DB1E.jpeg

6F3F897E-7491-4359-AAB8-5DF4775B999B.jpeg

01A726AE-F3EE-4182-BFEC-778360FED9A8.jpeg

If wasps nest are low they say it means a mild and calm winter, and if wasps nest are high it means and cooler and rough winter 

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Know thyself and you shall know the Gods!!!!

All things are possible, who you are is limited by who you think you are!!!!

☥𓂀

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  • Longtimer
1 minute ago, ChrisAmunRA said:

If wasps nest are low they say it means a mild and calm winter, and if wasps nest are high it means and cooler and rough winter 

This was pretty low. 😢

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

Yeah if it doesn’t rain in September the pastures won’t green up until spring. It’s happened before. Trying to water to get it to grow a little before dormancy. Kept the lawn green at least.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This was pretty low. 😢

wonder what the Woolly Worms look like this fall haven't seen any. 

Know thyself and you shall know the Gods!!!!

All things are possible, who you are is limited by who you think you are!!!!

☥𓂀

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  • Longtimer
9 minutes ago, ChrisAmunRA said:

wonder what the Woolly Worms look like this fall haven't seen any. 

My daughter says lots of grasshoppers and ladybugs.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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43 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Anybody else still watering their grass? I never thought I would water going into October 

Yeah, I am having to water certain sections, I reverted a strip of flower bed back to lawn and I am building up some low spots in my front yard, so I am having to water those daily.  Most of my back yard stays pretty damp thanks to an underground spring that runs along the back of the property.

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  • Longtimer

An ocean of warmth. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

Grass at the silver creek conference center is pretty dry. 

113D2AC6-7D79-4B00-B92D-AC0E93F07F8E.jpeg

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 hour ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Anybody else still watering their grass? I never thought I would water going into October 

yes irrigation on this side usually stays on until just before first frost.  last year we turned it off and did the blowout on 10/20.  I've turned the water budget down 50% as of last week.  Blowout is scheduled this year on 10/27

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21 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Grass at the silver creek conference center is pretty dry. 

113D2AC6-7D79-4B00-B92D-AC0E93F07F8E.jpeg

Probably going to regret giving up on my lawn.  But haven't needed to mow for like 2 months!   We have focused watering on shrubs and trees and and garden.   This is the complete opposite of 2019 now.   

20220927_132403.jpg

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Record highs in BC yesterday 

 

Weather summary
for British Columbia
issued by Environment Canada
at 2:56 a.m. PDT Tuesday 27 September 2022.

Discussion.

A ridge of high pressure over the province led to clear skies and 
unseasonably warm conditions. 

The following areas will have set a daily maximum temperature record 
on September 26, 2022 (Updated at 2:55 AM PDT September 27, 2022): 

Abbotsford Area (Abbotsford A) 
Preliminary new record of 29.3 
Old record of 27.2 set in 1976 
Records in this area have been kept since 1944 

Bella Bella Area (Bella Bella) 
Preliminary new record of 21.2 
Old record of 20.0 set in 2014 
Records in this area have been kept since 1977 

Blue River Area (Blue River CS) 
Preliminary new record of 23.9 
Old record of 23.3 set in 1976 
Records in this area have been kept since 1946 

Burns Lake Area (Burns Lake Decker Lake) 
Preliminary new record of 25.0 
Old record of 24.7 set in 1991 
Records in this area have been kept since 1949 

Clinton Area (Clinton RCS) 
Preliminary new record of 23.0 
Old record of 22.0 set in 2003 
Records in this area have been kept since 1974 

Dawson Creek Area (Dawson Creek A) 
Preliminary new record of 24.9 
Old record of 24.5 set in 1995 
Records in this area have been kept since 1926 

Gibsons Area (Sechelt Aut) 
Preliminary new record of 26.3 
Old record of 23.3 set in 1949 
Records in this area have been kept since 1949 

Mackenzie Area (Mackenzie Airport Auto) 
Preliminary new record of 22.9 
Old record of 21.9 set in 1991 
Records in this area have been kept since 1971 

Malahat Area (Malahat) 
Preliminary new record of 25.8 
Old record of 24.0 set in 1991 
Records in this area have been kept since 1986 

Pitt Meadows Area (Pitt Meadows CS) 
Preliminary new record of 29.3 
Old record of 27.5 set in 1991 
Records in this area have been kept since 1874 

Port Alberni Area (Port Alberni (AUT)) 
Preliminary new record of 29.5 
Old record of 27.8 set in 1918 
Records in this area have been kept since 1900 

Powell River Area (Powell River) 
Preliminary new record of 25.9 
Old record of 25.0 set in 1991 
Records in this area have been kept since 1924 

Prince George Area (Prince George Airport Auto) 
Preliminary new record of 24.2 
Old record of 23.9 set in 1927 
Records in this area have been kept since 1912 

Puntzi Mountain Area (Puntzi Mountain (AUT)) 
Preliminary new record of 27.3 
Old record of 26.5 set in 2003 
Records in this area have been kept since 1959 

Richmond Area (Vancouver Sea Island Ccg) 
Preliminary new record of 22.6 
Old record of 22.4 set in 1991 
Records in this area have been kept since 1896 

Sandspit Area (Sandspit Airport Auto) 
Preliminary new record of 20.2 
Old record of 19.3 set in 1996 
Records in this area have been kept since 1945 

Sechelt Area (Sechelt Aut) 
Preliminary new record of 26.3 
Old record of 23.0 set in 1991 
Records in this area have been kept since 1956 

Squamish Area (Squamish Airport) 
Preliminary new record of 29.9 
Old record of 26.5 set in 1991 
Records in this area have been kept since 1960 

Tatlayoko Lake Area (Tatlayoko Lake RCS) 
Preliminary new record of 28.0 
Old record of 27.0 set in 1991 
Records in this area have been kept since 1930 

West Vancouver Area (West Vancouver Aut) 
Preliminary new record of 26.2 
Old record of 25.0 set in 1991 
Records in this area have been kept since 1976 

 

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Off topic, but certainly @Jginmartini and @TigerWoodsLibido would appreciate this....big update last week to MSFS2020 last week addressing winds and the flight model.  I'm watching a real life A320 pilot flying around in Ian, left Fort Lauderdale, went to Havana, and is currently trying to land in Key West.  The graphics with the clouds and bands of rain is incredible.  The wind simulations is also pretty incredible.  He had to abort on his first attempt with a 50+kt gust.  He said the most he has landed in (in real life) is 45 kn, and the simulator was pretty much what he would expect to feel.

 

If you have the time, V1-Simulations is the guy.

 

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6 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Oh that looks pretty bad!😬 Haven’t watered since the end of July here and it looks like this as of last night! We’ve of course had over 4” of rain since Aug 1st though. Irrigation is getting blown out tomorrow in fact.

C66DC987-F9C8-474F-AF82-E01B0B22DD94.jpeg

Where did you get those planters on wheels?  Those are awesome.  

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11 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Where did you get those planters on wheels?  Those are awesome.  

I built them! We had some leftover reclaimed wood so we put it to good use!

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Cold Season 2022/23:

Total snowfall: 44"

Highest daily snowfall: 18"

Deepest snow depth: 16"

Coldest high: 8ºF

Coldest low: -7ºF

Number of subzero days: 6

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Back in early June I was sure our grapes would not reach maturity this year... the vines were not even at full leaf out at that point.    But now we have huge clumps of purple grapes in large quantities and they look great.    Turned out to be a very productive year.   We have Cabernet Sauvignon and Chardonnay grapes.    Might become a wine growing region here.  😀

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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