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March 7-12th Plains Severe Weather Threat and Heavy Rain events


Geos

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Looks like there is the threat for severe storms in the Plains early week as moisture starts to get tapped into from the Gulf.

 

 

Further NE two or three system will impact the Midwest and Great Lakes with heavy rain. 

 

Total moisture from the 0z GFS.

 

 

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Storms for NE too?

 

 

Can see the 4km NAM picking up on convection in the southern Plains.

 

 

Decent dewpoints for early in the season.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0700.gif?1457269157716

 

I don't really know why they think there could be severe weather for the middle of nebraska, There's no precip predicted there for then next week or so. :blink:

 

It's starting to get mighty dry around here (Omaha area), and there's not much relief in sight for the near future.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/06/gfs_namer_240_precip_ptot.gif

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Because shear isn't the only thing that tornadoes need??

I'd still think it should be a low-medium threat giving the dew points in the low 60s, decent shear and isolated super cells in the afternoon. Not saying there is a great chance for tornados but I think it's going to be more favorable than they think. I can see this system over performing based on the nws forecast

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I'd still think it should be a low-medium threat giving the dew points in the low 60s, decent shear and isolated super cells in the afternoon. Not saying there is a great chance for tornados but I think it's going to be more favorable than they think. I can see this system over performing based on the nws forecast

The low level shear is garbage.

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We're doing fine for moisture. There's so much moisture in the ground we have an above normal risk of flooding this spring.

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0700.gif?1457269157716

 

I don't really know why they think there could be severe weather for the middle of nebraska, There's no precip predicted there for then next week or so. :blink:

 

It's starting to get mighty dry around here (Omaha area), and there's not much relief in sight for the near future.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/06/gfs_namer_240_precip_ptot.gif

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The shear may be fine but from what I've read is there's issues with clouds and a cap early and the best forcing doesn't come until overnight so the storms will be elevated at that time anyway. I've also heard storms that do form up here in Nebraska will form behind the front which again means elevated crap.

 

It looks like 40-50 knots in Oklahoma. I always thought that was plenty to get some tornados

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Nasty. 30s and heavy rain for Thursday night-Friday.

 

 

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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GEOS riding the americans?

 

Still 2" here on the EURO, heavier east. 

Regardless if the low passes SE, it will be cool/cold.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Unless you are.further west as there is no cold air connection. Last year I had a negative 13 reading on yesterdays date. Torch away

 

With the wind off the lake it doesn't matter what the temp is in Michigan or aloft. lol

 

After 0z Thursday the EURO keeps it under 50° until the following Monday.

 

0z GFS has the 3" corridor nearby still. The heavy rain will help flush out my pond. Looking forward to the rain.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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That was the 12z, but now this is the 0z, which came back north.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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I guess your house has missed all the rain and moisture the rest of eastern Nebraska has received and this map must be wrong then. Again people freak out when there isn't 50" of snow every winter or when it doesn't rain or snow for a couple of weeks at a time. The sun's out for like 8 hours a day and the sun angle is so low, moisture doesn't really go anywhere. http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/mapsanddata/maparchive.aspx

 

I take it you don't make it out of the city much. It's dry as a bone out here.

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Is that a GEOS hole???

 

 

It's trolling me. Not the first time the NAM has done that.  :lol:

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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How much rain you get geos?

 

0.20"

Taking the thread off of pin. Nobody is this forum is really getting affected by the heavy rain.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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