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East/Gulf Coast Weather 2016


Phil
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Time for a new thread.

 

Currently 33.7 degrees with hints of spring amongst scattered piles of dirty snow.

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Heavy line of storms rolled over us this morning just in time for rush hour.

 

Tornado warning, nickel hail, heavy sheets of rain with visibility about 35 yards.

Winds hit 70 mph, with tornadic circulation across the county.

One driver reported a 10" tree was uprooted just east of me. It flew across the intersection and landed in a parking lot. This was a 10" live oak, roots and all just east of my home. A good deal of wind damage throughout north Texas.

 

We'll see about 2" of rain today

High of 78* will see afternoon storms reform. There's rain in the forecast for the next 5 days.

 

So...weather is picking up.

The doldrums are over for the short term.

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2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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A gorgeous 77 degrees today. My annual spring fever has officially commenced.

 

Meanwhile, the bay breeze is keeping locations like Annapolis in the mid/upper 50s, Hopefully, westerly flow aloft will be strong enough to keep the boundary bottled at the coast.

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EF1 hit Stephanville SW of Ft. Worth. We had straight line winds 65 to 80 mph. Many saw rainfall at 2".

 

So, tonight we are expecting another 2"+ with flooding. Brilliant lightning to the SW right now.

These things have hit hard and fast and many underestimate their punch.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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EF1 hit Stephanville SW of Ft. Worth. We had straight line winds 65 to 80 mph. Many saw rainfall at 2".

 

So, tonight we are expecting another 2"+ with flooding. Brilliant lightning to the SW right now.

 

These things have hit hard and fast and many underestimate their punch.

That sounds gnarly..any damage in your area?

 

Agree that the power of straight line winds/microbursts are under-appreciated. A few communities around here are still cleaning up after the microburst from two weeks ago.

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Another warn one today, with the typical early-season temperature gradients present. Currently 81/37 here, 75/45 at DCA, while its 57/46 in Annapolis/at the shoreline.

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Enjoy the next 10-15 days while you can, because we're heading right back into the freezer later this month into April. Record breaking SSW/FW underway..going to be a chaotic seasonal transition this year.

 

image.jpeg

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Enjoy the next 10-15 days while you can, because we're heading right back into the freezer later this month into April. Record breaking SSW/FW underway..going to be a chaotic seasonal transition this year.

attachicon.gifimage.jpeg

the craptistic cold and rain pattern perhaps higher elevaration snow event but for the most part cold in late March early April is more annoying then anything else.those in July and August we will be wishing for the cool weather as we suffer through the hot hazy humied dog days of summer then.
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Just arrived in Tampa FL, where I'll be until at least the 19th.

 

Basically no temperature difference relative to back home, but the humidity makes it feel like a different world. Not looking forward to an entire summer of this stuff once the soup spreads up the coast.

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That sounds gnarly..any damage in your area?

Agree that the power of straight line winds/microbursts are under-appreciated. A few communities around here are still cleaning up after the microburst from two weeks ago.

We ended up with three tornados. We were under a tornado watch today but I haven't heard that any were reported.

Rained all day, a slow soaking rain. Just what we need here to soak in to water trees and such. I've really enjoyed this round of rain.

 

I felt so lucky to experience a microburst. The thing that amazed me most was how very hot the air was when the air outside of the burst was cool. It's a real monster. The tree limbs slapped the ground and it felt like I was standing under a giant hairdryer blowing straight down at 50-60 mph. Very powerful winds and as you said much under-appreciated.

 

I've stood under tornados as they've passed overhead many times and stared up in to the vortex, but the downburst was as eerie as they come. Pressure is strange in those things.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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We ended up with three tornados. We were under a tornado watch today but I haven't heard that any were reported.

Rained all day, a slow soaking rain. Just what we need here to soak in to water trees and such. I've really enjoyed this round of rain.

 

I felt so lucky to experience a microburst. The thing that amazed me most was how very hot the air was when the air outside of the burst was cool. It's a real monster. The tree limbs slapped the ground and it felt like I was standing under a giant hairdryer blowing straight down at 50-60 mph. Very powerful winds and as you said much under-appreciated.

 

I've stood under tornados as they've passed overhead many times and stared up in to the vortex, but the downburst was as eerie as they come. Pressure is strange in those things.

Sounds like you experienced a heat burst, which are borne out of a dry microburst after maximum evaporative cooling potential has been reached. They're fairly rare phenomenon, and have been known to spike temperatures over 40 degrees in a matter of minutes. In some cases, temperatures have spiked to 100-115 degrees after midnight during these events.

 

I have yet to experience a tornado or heat burst personally, but I've experienced plenty of (wet) microbursts, and I agree they can be absolutely terrifying. You can hear the roaring well before they strike, and the pressure surge itself is quite the thrill ride.

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They are scary and awesome all at the same time.

Now, that you mentioned that, I do recall a local met talking about the temp. spike.  It was late spring and we did spike in that isolated area to near 100*.

The weather station was only a block away and the mets there were practically wetting themselves over the phenomenon.

 

Tornados are quite different.  The drop in barometric pressure affects me a lot. Makes me very edgey, and I can't stay till.

I usually go outside and watch it.  The view up in to one is just crazy. A swirling gray vortex, not unlike the other one I experienced I told you about, only it didn't pull  me in.

I've seen at least a dozen that way.  About 12 years ago I stood on a hill while two went west to east with me between them...big ones.  One hit downtown Ft. Worth, the other Arlington. Major damage.

The pressure between those two was just freaky, no other way to describe it.

 

The Low south of Ft. Worth is currently trying to move northward.

More rain in the forecast, but the Jet will slide north and the low will move on tomorrow.

Flooding in Texas and Louisiana.  This is a wet one !

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2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Quite a bit of rain in Tx/La lately. I heard some places had 15+" of rain. Wow. 

 

Yeah, it's officially a super soaker.

 

Haven't heard final totals yet. It's still raining.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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57Fº and overcast, with a few showers moving from Philly to the north.

Weather-wise, the last 10-11 months have been fairly boring and stagnant in the Mid-Atlantic region, outside the blizzard and several severe weather outbreaks.

 

Hoping for a rapid systematic transition this summer w/ a high degree of binary phasing between ENSO/QBO.

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Any thoughts on the modeled cold spell for the 21st?

It's legitimate, and we're heading back into a cool/nasty pattern starting later in March, probably continuing into April barring an unexpected intraseasonal scale shift in tropical forcing. The major SSW/FW, coupled with the ongoing intraseasonal forcings, makes this a relatively high confidence forecast, in my opinion.

 

I wouldn't forecast snowfall in the lower elevations/cities at this range considering we'll be entering late-March, but the Appalachians almost certainly will observe some (it snows into April/May there almost every year). It's possible we get another snowfall, but it'll take a perfect evolution to get it done without a very anomalous airmass.

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Yeah, it's officially a super soaker.

 

Haven't heard final totals yet. It's still raining.

 

Hemphill, Texas came in with the state record for the current storm........18"

That's over 1/2 a years rainfall in like 3 1/2 days.

 

Today was a perfect spring day....sunny, high of 78* with a beautiful light northerly breeze.

Can I order a summer of these ?

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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If this were 3-4 weeks ago, we'd almost certainly be looking at another blizzard. I'll be returning home on the evening of the 18th, so if this all comes together I should make it back in time. Still expecting cold rain in the lowlands, snow in the mountains, but would love to be proven wrong.

 

Currently 83/64 here in Bradenton, FL. A little bit summery, but pleasant compared to what the entire eastern seaboard will be dealing with when the Bermuda High develops in a few months. I'm already mentally preparing myself for those 95/75 afternoons in July and August.

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I am mentally preparing to be disappointed when its week five of 92/71 and 75% humidity with nary a storm to speak of.

Those stretches are the absolute worst, and they do happen and typically last 7-10 days. Good news is they're much less of an issue up your way than they are down here, for topographical reasons. Actually, JJA is the wettest trimonthly in your area (average of 15-20"/summer). Almost all of it falls in the form of convection/thunderstorm activity, as we really don't get much (if any) plain stratiform rain after mid/late May.

 

I can't count how many times I've seen OH/WV/PA/NJ demolished, while I'm sitting at 95 degrees under a capping inversion and/or downsloping flow. It's like clockwork sometimes..

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Yeah, the 00z ECMWF is a major snowstorm/blizzard from DC to Boston. Looks like 6-24+" depending on location/elevation.

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Nice, 12z ECMWF is a paste bomb from VA to ME. Approaching 1.5" QPF in the DC area, which would translate into 8-12" of snow (factoring in ratios/temps/sun angle). Would be a 12-18" dump if it were midwinter.

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Flying back home tomorrow..hopefully the snowstorm idea pans out. I'm weary regarding temperatures/rates, but we'll hopefully have a better idea how this one will shake out in 24hrs or so.

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Haha, the 00z ECMWF yanks the rug. Looks more like the GFS.

 

Goes to show the intricate nature of these systems.

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Back home..about 50 degrees and clear. Ready for my white fluffy rain (or plain rain?) this weekend..not expecting any accumulations but wouldn't be surprised if we see some stickage.

 

This is one of those patterns that will keep the snow chances going through the first week of April. If we see snow this April, it'll have snowed in three of the last four Aprils, at least locally speaking.

 

It'd suck to waste the first half of April on this nasty crap. That gives us approximately 6 weeks of relatively comfortable temperatures to enjoy before the Bermuda high sets up for the summer and the soup arrives.

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Been snowing/sleeting occasionally since this morning. Not really worth tracking, no accumulations to speak of.

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Another strong line of storms tonight.

Heavy rain and wind with tornado warnings and watches.

Thankfully no hail. This may be an active spring.

 

Ah, spoke too soon, as I was writing this light hail began.

 

57* light hail, gusts to 34mph, strong lightning

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Beautiful day here, 77/30. Felt dry as heck actually.

 

Looks like severe weather season kicks into high gear across the nation in mid/late April.

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I'm excited

It's early, but all signs point to an active severe weather season here this summer and next. Historically, our most prolific severe weather years occur under declining and/or -ENSOs, during declining and/or weak solar forcing, under transitory QBOs.

 

Our severe season does lag the rest of the country a bit, typically peaking between June 5th and August 5th, so we'll have to wait a bit longer to get into the action than our friends in the southern plains/Midwest.

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Another beautiful day today, reached approximately 75/40 before temperatures started dropping behind the cold front after 2pm or so.

 

Cherry blossoms are in full bloom around the area. Pollen starting to visibly accrete on most surfaces, too. I believe the white pines and cedars are the primary contributors as of now.

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Looks like 2015-16 will officially go down as the warmest winter on record in my backyard since I've started keeping track, edging out 2011-12 by a hair. Probably at least the 3rd warmest winter on record since 1950 as well. Ironically, next winter will likely wind up colder overall, despite unfavorable background forcing.

 

Strictly in terms of anomalous frequency, this might've been the most "uneventful" winter I've ever experienced. Outside the midwinter blizzard and the offseason severe thunderstorm, this winter was a pile of crap, locally. No properly phased storms to speak of, no severe windstorms, no strong frontal passages. I suspect it'll be hard to do much worse, going forward. [knocking on wood]

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Alot like a 82-83 winter where it was a one wonder in a record warm and boring winter over all

Yeah, pretty much. I wasn't alive for that winter, but looking back it looks like it had the same general vibe to it.

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Hey Phil, any chance for a detailed Spring-Summer forecast?

Yeah, I was actually looking over some analogs today. I suspect long term, the March-May period will wind up warmer than normal, with precipitation near normal. We should warm up substantially in mid/late April, following one last round of wave amplification under the SSW/FW influence.

 

I want to wait another 4-5 weeks on the specifics/details regarding the summer outlook, but I suspect we're in for a warmer/drier than average summer overall, with June being the coolest month relative to average, and August being the driest month relative to average. This is also a year where we'll have to watch for hurricanes tracking up the coast or making landfall nearby starting in mid/late August. Wouldn't surprise me if another hurricane-Irene type storm occurs this year, which brought 60-80mph winds into the metro areas.

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Wouldn't surprise me to see several 40-50+mph gusts across the region this afternoon. Should be a good setup for downsloping,

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Man, it's howling out there, by far the strongest gradient wind event of the year so far.

 

My anemometer is somewhat sheltered and still recorded a 53mph gust.

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Much calmer today overall, highest gust is 37mph as of now.

 

Currently 53/27, fairly comfortable in the sunshine.

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Beautiful out there, 61/25 currently with a blizzard of cherry blossom petals on sunny southerly breezes.

 

I'm going to thoroughly enjoy April and May while they last.

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March was another blowtorch month overall, minus the early month snowfall and mid-month "attempt".

 

Hopefully the last several months aren't a sign of what's to come going forward, otherwise it's going to be a long, torrid warm season.

 

image.png

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Incredible how consistently warm it has been the last few months.

Yeah, really starting to look like we've entered warm background regimen that should continue into the warm season, and will continue probably for another year or two.

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Looks like a good shot for some thunderstorms on Friday.

Shear/dynamics aloft look great, but surface instability/CAPE might be a problem if we can't scour out the lower levels. Still a bit early for us, severe-wise, but I like what I'm seeing in the overall patterns this year.

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I'm just over eager and think that anything with more than a couple strikes of lightning is severe.

 

I'm excited for my first Tornado warning.

In that case you'll probably be satisfied.

 

You can have the tornadoes, though. We had one narrowly miss us in 2003 and it was (and remains) the scariest experience of my life. I was 10yrs old and remember it like it was yesterday.

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Yeah, really starting to look like we've entered warm background regimen that should continue into the warm season, and will continue probably for another year or two.

agreed what happens after 2017 the late 20teens and 2020s depends largely on what happens with the upcoming solar minimum.also depends how severe or deep cycles 25 and 26 end up being which will determined how strong of a cooling the next 50 years ends up being.a couple of cycles that end up as no shows would be quite troublesome.so it will be interesting to see how this does play out.I still beleave the periold after 2017 is going to be a test for both sides idea wise.we likey should enjoy the over all warm background singal as it could crash fast and hard sooner or later.
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