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East/Gulf Coast Weather 2016


Phil

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I bought a dehumidifier in preparation, along with a nice air conditioniner. I think I'm ready. My colleagues tell me it will only take a couple weeks to get used to it.

Welcome to Texas !........uh, Pa.

 

We hit high humidity a month ago and will remain there till ohhhhhh, November ! :lol:

It's been raining here like crazy. We received 3.5" yesterday. I'm waiting for totals. Houston is now officially a part of the Gulf of Mexico. Currently overcast, won't complain, summer coming and the tap will dry up.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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I bought a dehumidifier in preparation, along with a nice air conditioniner. I think I'm ready. My colleagues tell me it will only take a couple weeks to get used to it.

Smart move on the dehumidifier. Water/condensation will usually find a way inside, especially in older residences, so a dehumidifier can be necessary to prevent mold buildup and the rusting/degradation of certain nails, pipes, and beams,

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Weird to see so many lightning bugs tonight, considering the numerous subfreezing lows this month (plus the fact it was still snowing as of 10 days ago). I almost thought I was hallucinating at first.

 

Usually these guys don't come out in large numbers until mid/late May, and peak in early/mid June.

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Just absolute perfection outside. Currently 70/24 here, essentially no humidity to speak of.

 

This is, by far, the most beautiful, tranquil week of weather I can remember since March of 2012.

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This dryness is starting to concern me somewhat. I've only had 0.19" of precipitation this month, and it's already the 20th. It's generally bad sign when we're heading into summer on a dry note, especially with an oncoming Niña and lingering +QBO50.

 

Since 1850, I can't find a single Niño-to-Niña-transition summer that finished cooler than average after a dry April/May aggregate.

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We've received at least 5" rainfall since this even began and it rained 2" just last night with a little hail. More to come tonight before it quiets down for a few days then it will return next Wednesday.

 

No one is complaining except Houston, understandably. Like you said, when the tap turns off in July, we'd better brace ourselves for a 3 month dry spell. Thankfully the aquifers and lakes will be at capacity.

 

It's going down to 56* tonight and a high tomorrow of 76*. Everything is....damp.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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We've received at least 5" rainfall since this even began and it rained 2" just last night with a little hail. More to come tonight before it quiets down for a few days then it will return next Wednesday.

 

No one is complaining except Houston, understandably. Like you said, when the tap turns off in July, we'd better brace ourselves for a 3 month dry spell. Thankfully the aquifers and lakes will be at capacity.

 

It's going down to 56* tonight and a high tomorrow of 76*. Everything is....damp.

Mind sharing? Haha.

 

I've never had pollen allergies until this year. Never good to head into a dry spell during pollen season.

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Wildfire smoke has always negatively affected my running performance to a greater degree than temperature and/or humidity. Factor in the pollen, and it was just plain nasty.

 

Made it 5.22 miles in 52 minutes this evening at average pace of ~6.0mph, which is well under my 6.7mph average. No Bueno.

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Man, this weather is almost too perfect to be real. Currently 74/60 with a nice southerly breeze ongoing. Watching a few lightning strikes in the distance while laying back in the chase lounge, enjoying a few beers with the gf.

 

Smoke plume has shifted westward today, so the air is clean as well.

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Here's LWX's analysis on the smoke plume. We're in the clear until the wind shifts back W/NW.

 

image.jpeg

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We're in opposite chairs right now. Usually wildfires and dry weather are our problem. Odd to see it with you especially after the storms you had.

 

We have several days of crystal blue weather then more severe storms are forecast. Highs mid 80's now a bit warm for April and I'm concerned we'll bake come July-September.

 

Meantime the levies in Houston are at bursting levels and with more rain on the way to,run toward the Guld, they may have a mega crisis on their hands. The images out of that area are not unlike Katrina style flooding. So sad.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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We're in opposite chairs right now. Usually wildfires and dry weather are our problem. Odd to see it with you especially after the storms you had.

 

We have several days of crystal blue weather then more severe storms are forecast. Highs mid 80's now a bit warm for April and I'm concerned we'll bake come July-September.

 

Meantime the levies in Houston are at bursting levels and with more rain on the way to,run toward the Guld, they may have a mega crisis on their hands. The images out of that area are not unlike Katrina style flooding. So sad.

We actually observe wildfires on a semi-regular basis during March/April, which is a surprise to many considering how humid it gets here during the summer.

 

Warmer airmasses begin to move in during this time, but dewpoints/relative humidity levels typically remain very low until at least early/mid May, often later. So it's very easy for a lightning strike or poor decision(s) to lead to the spread of fires.

 

Once into June, there's just too much water in the air for the spread of fires. By the end of July, everything is dripping with water/condensation. :lol:

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We have several days of crystal blue weather then more severe storms are forecast. Highs mid 80's now a bit warm for April and I'm concerned we'll bake come July-September.

 

Meantime the levies in Houston are at bursting levels and with more rain on the way to,run toward the Guld, they may have a mega crisis on their hands. The images out of that area are not unlike Katrina style flooding. So sad.

Yeah I've heard about the Houston area deluge, apparently reports of over 7" in 2hrs. Crazy to think about, really.

 

We had a similar deluge back in September of 2011 associated with tropical storm Lee. No prolific downpours, but ended up with 17" of rain in 11hrs. Roads washed out everywhere.

 

Regarding summer, yeah I think the first half will be okay for your area temperature/rainfall wise (and ours), however, the second half probably goes nuclear for a lot of folks. Obviously the timing of everything depends on the timing/nature of the forcing transition as La Niña develops.

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Well, keep me informed. Can't do much about it, but maybe I can prepare and everything won't die outside.

 

More rain coming in. Doesn't look like last week's deluge....so far.

Meanwhile I'll enjoy the good weather.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Looks like severe weather season begins in earnest this week over the south-central states. Could be some stronger tornadoes on several occasions over the next 10 days.

 

Still early for us, but once forcing enters the IO during the middle of May, activity will pick up. That being said, the month I'm looking at most closely here is July. I'm starting to think it could be a major severe month throughout the Mid Atlantic/Northeast.

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I was looking forward to some decent thunderstorms this Tuesday, but I guess that isnt happening.

 

It is also kind of annoying to go into what could be an impressive Nina only after moving to the East Coast. I want that ice age Phil.

Despite their bad reputation, Niña winters are usually more dynamic/exciting than Niño winters overall with plenty of rollercoaster temperature rides, mixed precip/ice events, deep/phased storms, high wind events, severe weather into October/November, and sharp cold fronts. Last winter was quite boring outside the blizzard, severe outbreak in February, and the April vortmax/windstorm.

 

It's true that all-snow events are hard to obtain during stronger La Niñas, but they often make up for that with plenty of deep, dynamic systems that track west of us.

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Plus, there's the fact that our biggest severe weather outbreaks occur during La Niña years.

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Beautiful weather again today. Currently 83/47 here, a bit cooler in DC (75/53) behind the bay breeze.

 

Tomorrow looks somewhat toasty for late-April. with highs in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees around here. Low humidity will make it relatively comfortable, too.

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Downsloping and a lack of kinematic forcing are problematic down here, but instability is okay. Kind of early in the season for convection to cold-pool into CAPE away from forcing to the north, but we'll see I guess.

 

Currently 85/53 and still warming here.

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I'm actually more interested in the activity over the Great Plains than I am in this crapvection garbage, at least locally speaking. Wake me up in a month when we actually have a shot at something legitimate . ;)

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From NOAA--The strongest storms are expected in two zones: one near a warm front that will be moving slowly north across northeast Kansas and northern Missouri toward southern Nebraska, and the other along and ahead of a dry line that should be located roughly 50-100 miles west of the Dallas-Fort Worth, Oklahoma City, and Wichita areas by late afternoon.

 

We're at 79* at 6:00 pm. Humid, windy. Pressure is at 29.60 and humidity is 73%. A Line of heavy storms bearing down on Abilene currently. This baby should pack a punch. It should roll in to DFW area by 9-10 pm. The conditions remind me of the weather we had when we were hit so bad in the early 1990's. Large hail and tornados were part of that. I had a tornado touch down across the street from me, bounce over the house and hit the street behind me. Golf ball sized hail trashed my roof and skylight.

 

Early May + or - a week is notorious for dishing out some nastiness here. Time will tell. I'll let you know what happens. One local forecaster said this was setting up the worst storm since 2011 so, all right. Bring it on. Native Texans have seen it all.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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These have been heavy storms. Dropping a lot of rain in a short time.

Some hail, but nothing to get worked up about.

 

Lightning was the main event. We had 3200 strikes between 9 and 10 pm.

Looked like someone was playing with the light switch for an hour.

More to come Friday but not like this one. Glad the rough stuff was north.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Typical Texas morning after a monster storm...it's gorgeous and crystal clear, 66*, just heavenly.

Temps headed for 88* and humid.

Friday brings Part Deux but the punch was last night. One heck of a light show.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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I'm disappointed in LWX for upholding DCA's 17.6" snowfall total for the January blizzard, which was/is obviously incorrect.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/04/28/weather-service-says-blizzard-snow-total-is-correct-but-side-steps-thorny-issues/?update

 

Does this look like 17.6" of snow? We're ~ 8 miles from DCA yet finished with 32" of snowfall, after compaction/etc. How is that even possible? That table exactly 35" off the ground, for scale.

 

I'd understand if it were a warm storm w/ temperatures near freezing, however DCA was in the mid-20s through the event, and recieved about the same amount of precipitation as we did. So, the fact they finished with less than half of what we recieved, snowfall wise, in my opinion, is bizarre.

 

image.jpeg

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Classic sharp boundary in our reagion from big thunderstorms in west Virginia to the Ohio vally reagion to bring stuck in a cool marine layer east of the mountains these marine type set ups can be very stubborn and hard to dislodge doing the spring months it not until June when things become more favorable for thunderstorms in our reagion with less marine influence.July could be an active month in our reagion severe weather wise from some of the analogs

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* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...NORTHERN PAGE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...NORTH CENTRAL ROCKINGHAM COUNTY IN WESTERN VIRGINIA...SOUTHWESTERN WARREN COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...SHENANDOAH COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...

 

* UNTIL 945 PM EDT

 

* AT 907 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR TIMBERVILLE...OR 20 MILES NORTH OF HARRISONBURG...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

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Classic sharp boundary in our reagion from big thunderstorms in west Virginia to the Ohio vally reagion to bring stuck in a cool marine layer east of the mountains these marine type set ups can be very stubborn and hard to dislodge doing the spring months it not until June when things become more favorable for thunderstorms in our reagion with less marine influence.July could be an active month in our reagion severe weather wise from some of the analogs

Yeah, the marine wedge looks to hold the thunderstorm activity west of the blue ridge tonight.

 

It should erode tomorrow, but forcing looks meager despite satisfactory CAPE w/ highs in the low/mid 80s and dews in the low 60s.

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Lightning flashes visible to the west..maybe enough elevated instability to maintain these cells here?

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Beautiful afternoon, currently 80/65 with bright sunshine. Maybe a tad humid, but just barely noticeable.

 

Expecting heavier thunderstorms to move in from the southwest later this evening. Coverage should be decent, but severe potential looks somewhat limited, so probably nothing more than a few spotty 60+mph gusts this time. Small hail and/or frequent lightning looks like a good bet, however.

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Widespread severe activity down in VA/NC, some already producing 70mph winds and golfball-sized hail. Looks to be heading this way, so hopefully there's enough instability to keep things interesting tonight.

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Legitimate supercell to the SW of here..might make a left hook. Interesting looking on the notorious SW flank:

 

image.jpeg

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This thing is making lots of noise. Latest velocity scans are intriguing, to say the least. Probably a strong microburst in there, maybe a spin-up?

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