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East/Gulf Coast Weather 2016


Phil

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Nothing even close to severe here, just heavy rain and lots of intra-cloud lightning. That storm to the south is legitimate, though.

 

Nice practice-round for when the real stuff happens.

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Stuff firing everywhere..not too much in the way of severe, but lightning is illuminating the sky constantly as the sun sets.

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We received an inch of rain this morning. Lots of thunder banging about.

High today of 61 and a low of 46 tonight. Very odd for this time of year.

So, we enjoy the chill while we may in May.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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We finished with 3.53" of rain over 4hrs. That'd be a decent deluge even by midsummer standards.

 

Some pics of today's convection:

 

Anvil head of initial supercell around 6pm:

 

image.jpeg

 

Departure of initial supercell:

 

image.jpeg

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Reports of tennis ball sized hail in Rockville, with baseball sized hail reported in various locales in southern MD.

 

Gusts between 60-70mph in DC proper, wind core missed me by 2 miles. Hit maybe 20mph here.

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For Philadelphia weather, it looks showery and cool (seasonally speaking) up through the weekend, with some instability this Sunday and temps pushing 80 or so.

 

If the rest of Spring was like what is has been over the past week, then I think I could be ok with face melting humidity.

Yeah, the first half of May looks cooler/wetter than average overall across the region. Not many severe chances this early in the year, but enough "weather" to keep things at least somewhat interesting.

 

I think we flip the pattern in mid/late May, with a warmer/drier than average pattern taking hold through/until early June, perhaps beyond depending on the propagatory nature of the developing IO forcing. Good news is you'll have time to adjust, as warm patterns in late May typically yield dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s as opposed to the mid/upper 70s and above, typically observed in July/August.

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Accumulating snowfall in the mountains of NC/WV today. Even some thundersnow reports. Probably more on the way through the next week above 4500ft or so under any deep/closed ULLs.

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This pattern kinda sucks. Going weeks without sunshine is typical of April, not May.

 

Climatologically speaking, early/mid May is our best stretch of weather all year. Wasting it on this crap is starting to irritate me.

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We have a winter like coaster storm now taking shape off the coast lol this pattern stinks for may standers.

The analog aggregate I'm using suggests this will be a cool/troughy month overall.

 

image.png

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Watch it go from cool straight to summer hot hazy and humied June July and August into september which is usually how it works around here.

I think June might be nice/tolerable overall with transience in the pattern(s), however July/August look scary. Virtually unanimous analog agreement on a heatwave/blast furnace pattern starting sometime in July.

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Already over 6" of rain for the month around here. Wettest month since last June, when ~ 13" of rain fell. At least that drenching came in the form of numerous severe weather outbreaks.

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If the ECMWF/EPS depiction is correct regarding the tropical forcings/MJO, we'll transition into a warm/dry pattern later this month into June.

 

Accounting for the tylical propagation of these intraseasonal waves and subsequent harmonics, assuming that's what we have here, that'd put us on track for a reprieve in mid/late June, followed by the "real deal" in July, in terms of heat.

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What a crazy spring for many of us.  All manner of precipitation and drama.

 

Texas is expecting thunderstorms Sunday night/Monday morning.  Remains to be seen how powerful.

But we've had some amazing downpours.  Lately, stunningly beautiful weather.

Cool air, sparkling skies.  But just wait a minute and it will change.

 

Love the sky photos. Especially the one over DC.  Looks like Judgement Day !

  • Like 1

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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What a crazy spring for many of us. All manner of precipitation and drama.

 

Texas is expecting thunderstorms Sunday night/Monday morning. Remains to be seen how powerful.

But we've had some amazing downpours. Lately, stunningly beautiful weather.

Cool air, sparkling skies. But just wait a minute and it will change.

 

Love the sky photos. Especially the one over DC. Looks like Judgement Day !

Gonna be one of those summers, I think. I'm watching early June for a potential derecho pattern, where exactly the EML advection/gradient sets up is still in question.

 

Yeah that was a solid thunderstorm day here, though nothing severe or noteworthy occurred in my backyard. Three seperate sub-severe cells did blow through here, with two lightning strikes hitting within 200 yards of the house. Best part was watching near-continuous lightning persist for approximately 4 hours, even in-between the cells.

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Finally some sunshine today/tomorrow before the next round of clouds/rain. Currently 62/50 with scattered cumulus, somewhat chilly by May standards.

 

Troughy patterns in April/May suck because they're perpetually cloudy, as opposed to midsummer troughs, which generate thunderstorms as opposed to stratiform rain.

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Interesting depiction of the climatological timeline of tornado season across the country:

 

http://www.sciencebuzz.org/sites/default/files/images/Tornado_Peak_time.jpg

 

http://www.sciencebuzz.org/blog/when-tornado-season

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Beautiful day, despite the wind. Currently 67/33 with a WNW wind sustained at 17mph, with a peak gust of 43mph. Gusts are stronger than I expected today.

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Looks like a significant cold shot next weekend, at least by May standards. Probably this pattern's last hurrah.

 

Afterwards, a large scale pattern change looks to occur, as IO/MT forcing takes over, leading to a -AAM/RNA response. So, we'll probably enter a warm/dry pattern later in the month.

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Already have high-level clouds moving in ahead of the warm front associated with the next system. Another week without sunshine upcoming.

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Now at 13 consecutive days with measurable rainfall here. Currently 58/53 with drizzle after moderate rain through the morning.

 

Probably will be cloudy/wet all week.

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Some lightning/thunder ongoing here.

 

Wasn't expecting thunderstorms tonight. Several small cells popping up around the area under the WAA.

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Okay, I've had enough of this weather. Now 16 consecutive days with measurable precipitation, including downpours last night and most of the day today.

 

Currently 58/56 with mist. Average high is well into the 70s at this point.

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Ah now,...come August you'll be howling about something else. North Texas has rain in the forecast for the next 10 days. No one is complaining either. We've had some outstanding light shows. Tremendous amount of lightning in these storms, but never the less we know what life is like with the rain spickette shut down. Farmers aren't complaining, neither are the lakes and aquifers.

 

Take it and smile my friend, you could be screaming about the doldrums with no wind, rain, or relief. I know it can get on your nerves but it could be far worse...like us come July and August.

 

High today 87*

 

Humidity. 68% !? I was working out in it this afternoon and actually got faint. I I've lived here 98% of my life.

  • Like 1

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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That looks more like the storms in the plains and south central plains. I've only been in two where I was really concerned. The worst being the May 1995 storm that ripped off my shingles, wiped out my skylight and saw a funnel hit on the west side of the property, bounce, and hit on the east of the property. We had baseball sized hail with that one. Here's some images.

 

image.jpeg

 

image.jpeg

 

image.jpeg

  • Like 1

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Confirmed tornadoes through 2016 so far. I think the VA EF3s occurred during the February outbreak.

 

image.jpeg

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