East/Gulf Coast Weather 2016

[UnionWX]

Most of the area is under an Enhanced risk by the SPC. 5% chance of a tornado. 15% chance of hail.

[UnionWX]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1129 AM CDT FRI JUL 01 2016

 

VALID 011630Z - 021200Z

 

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A SMALL PART OF THE

NORTHEAST...

 

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENH RISK AREA

OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

 

...NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC TODAY INTO TNGT...

SEASONABLY STRONG 700-500 MB FLOW ALREADY PRESENT OVER PARTS OF THE

NERN U.S. WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN AND SPREAD E/NE INTO NEW ENGLAND

LATER TODAY/TNGT AS GRT LKS TROUGH CONTINUES GENERALLY EWD.

SFC/STREAMLINE ANALYSES SUGGEST THAT A CONFLUENCE AXIS IS BEGINNING

TO EVOLVE THIS MORNING FROM ERN WV NWD INTO CNTRL NY...WELL E OF

BOTH THE OHIO COLD FRONT AND WRN PA/NY CONVECTIVE BAND. AT THE SAME

TIME...SFC AND SATELLITE PW DATA SHOW APPRECIABLE MOISTURE

/DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 60S F AND PW AROUND 1.5 INCHES/ SPREADING NWD

FROM THE DELMARVA REGION ACROSS ERN PA AND NJ.

 

CONTINUED SFC HEATING AND MOISTENING ALONG WITH MODERATE FORCING FOR

ASCENT WITH UPR TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AFTN STORM

DEVELOPMENT IN WEAKLY-CAPPED ENVIRONMENT FROM CNTRL/ERN NY SWD INTO

MD-VA. DEVELOPMENT MAY BE MOST CONCENTRATED ALONG THE CONFLUENCE

AXIS AND...POSSIBLY...ON ERN EDGE OF WRN PA/NY CONVECTIVE BAND.

 

AMPLE /40+ KT/ WSWLY DEEP SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR SUSTAINED

STORMS/SUPERCELLS...BUT STORM MODE WILL BE COMPLEX GIVEN MULTIPLE

SOURCES OF LOW-LVL UPLIFT AND WEAK CINH. WITH TIME...OVERALL SET-UP

SUGGESTS LIKELY EVOLUTION INTO A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE NE/SW SQLN...WITH

THE MOST PROGRESSIVE/LONG-LIVED PART CONTINUING EWD INTO WRN/CNTRL

NEW ENGLAND BY EVE. STORMS THROUGHOUT THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL BE

CAPABLE OF SVR HAIL /ESPECIALLY THIS AFTN/...WITH INCREASING

LIKELIHOOD FOR DMGG WIND. DEPENDING UPON STORM MODE AND TERRAIN

INTERACTIONS...SOME RISK ALSO WILL EXIST FOR

TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY FROM ERN PA/NJ NEWD INTO ERN NY/WRN NEW

ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVE...WHERE IT APPEARS THAT MOST

FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF INCREASING MOISTURE/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL

RESIDE ATOP POTENTIAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.

[UnionWX]

Radar currently, let's see how this evolves.

 

[UnionWX]

Radar exploding in PA.

[UnionWX]

Tornado watch

 

[Phil]

Towers going up...it must be summer.

 

[UnionWX]

Most models showing all this COC weather leaving, and the heat coming in.

[Phil]

Most models showing all this COC weather leaving, and the heat coming in.

Yeah, after three relatively tame summers we're bound to roast at some point in the near future.

 

Looks like a solid stretch of upper 90s on the EPS ensembles, though that's typical of almost any summer, even the cool ones. It wouldn't shock me if we approach 100 degrees a few days after the 4th of July.

[Andie]

We'll join the party Phil.

 

Sunday through to next Sunday

I hope this doesn't go more than a week.

 

Highs 100-102

Lows. 77-78

Dew point ~ 70

Humidity ~ 45-48

 

Thank heaven for air conditioning. I have no desire to celebrate the 4th in these conditions but must run the gauntlet of family.

[Phil]

Storms failing here again. Currently 90/72, H/I of 97. Nearest station also has 91/71 H/I 97, so looks like my calibrated SHT15 sensor is on target.

 

Looks like our first wave of legitimate heat begins next week. Could have several mid/upper 90s highs with dewpoints in the mid 70s.

[UnionWX]

Had some hail today, pretty nice storm.

[Phil]

Had some hail today, pretty nice storm.

Jealous.

[UnionWX]

Jealous.

Don't be jealous, that was the first time I saw hail in about 12 years.

[Phil]

Don't be jealous, that was the first time I saw hail in about 12 years.

Wow, 12yrs? I guess I can't complain, as that might legitimately be an east coast hail drought record. How large was it?

 

We've had quite a few small hail events here in recent years, the most recent occurring back in February with that powerful squall/microburst. Laughable that so far, nothing this summer has come close to that monster, at least locally speaking. We also haven't observed "large" hail (golfball+) since June of 2010.

[UnionWX]

Wow, 12yrs? I guess I can't complain, as that might legitimately be an east coast hail drought record. How large was it?

We've had quite a few small hail events here in recent years, the most recent occurring back in February with that powerful squall/microburst. Laughable that so far, nothing this summer has come close to that monster, at least locally speaking. We also haven't observed "large" hail (golfball+) since June of 2010.

Wasn't to large, less than .25". I can't even remember when I last saw golfball hail, lol.

[weatherfan2012]

95 east and south got hammered today by a few rounds today.

[weatherfan2012]

Storms failing here again. Currently 90/72, H/I of 97. Nearest station also has 91/71 H/I 97, so looks like my calibrated SHT15 sensor is on target.

Looks like our first wave of legitimate heat begins next week. Could have several mid/upper 90s highs with dewpoints in the mid 70s.

yeah I fear many our under doing next week's temperatures most only have us in the upper 80s we will see.

[Phil]

yeah I fear many our under doing next week's temperatures most only have us in the upper 80s we will see.

Upper-80s would be right around climo. We'll be 95+ for at least a few days.

[weatherfan2012]

Upper-80s would be right around climo. We'll be 95+ for at least a few days.

agreed

[Phil]

Beautiful light show to the east, got some good video that I'll post soon.

[weatherfan2012]

Thunderstorms at night is the best summer weather types the storms can be 30 40 even 100 mails away and still make a great light show and safe since the lighting is way to far away to do any harm.doing night thunderstorms it best to see if you here thunder after the lighting strike that would be the warning the the lighting is becoming a hazard striking wise.

[Phil]

Video of tonight's lightning display.

 

[Phil]

Is it really early July?! Holy crap this weather is unbelievably beautiful for this time of year. Savor it.

[Phil]

Some guidance suggesting dewpoints surge the upper 70s later next week, maybe for several days. We all knew it would happen eventually, but there was hope they'd hold off until late July/early August, as is usually the case. However, late next week now looks to mark the beginning of dewpoint season. #LaNiña

[weatherfan2012]

Some guidance suggesting dewpoints surge the upper 70s later next week, maybe for several days. We all knew it would happen eventually, but there was hope they'd hold off until late July/early August, as is usually the case. However, late next week now looks to mark the beginning of dewpoint season. #LaNiña

welcome to summer in the city and country

[weatherfan2012]

Video of tonight's lightning display.

Awesome video there phil.

[Phil]

Awesome video there phil.

Thanks man, got lucky as I wouldn't have seen it if I hadn't decided to grab some groceries. Haha.

[weatherfan2012]

Little cell going by heavey rains with a few lighting skrikes thunder.

[Phil]

What looked like a mini-heatwave has morphed into typical summer weather. Currently 91/71, H/I 98 here. Currently 92/70 at DCA. That's basically climo.

 

Maybe we crack 95 degrees a few days later this week, but again, that's very typical/pedestrian stuff. Still not fun to do labor work in, though.

[Phil]

Lol, Mt. Holly issued excessive heat watches in PA/NJ for heat indices "around 100F". That's absurd and irresponsible IMO.

 

When the first real heatwave arrives, folks will be caught with their pants down as heat indices soar past 110F. This has happened too many times to count. There's a reason LWX/DC doesn't even issue heat advisories until heat indexes reach 105F, and doesn't issue excessive heat warnings until they surpass 110F.

[Phil]

The annual cicadas just came out here, which means the nighttime katydids & crickets will be soon to follow (probably within the next 10 days). So long to quiet nights, lol.

 

Summer has officially begun in DC.

[Andie]

HUGE a** electrical storm on the way home to Ft. worth from the Red River around midnight last night.

So bad even the truckers pulled off and refused to drive in to it. We took their lead and pulled off and grabbed some coffee and watched the show From a distance. The widest and craziest acting lightning I've ever seen. Cloud to ground and cloud to cloud that looked like God was ripping the sky in half. Really apocalyptic.

 

We could see black sheets of rain pouring down in the lightning. Heavy heavy rain. But it was the lightning. One massive bolt went half way across the Texas sky (covered county wide) then did a 90* turn down to the ground and just fried whatever it hit. Stunning stuff. Storm went for well over 3 hours. These were the widest bolts I've ever seen of lavender blue lightning. Gorgeous and deadly.

 

I haven't witnessed anything like it in many years. This has been the most lightning active year in recent memory.

A bolt of lightning hit a neighbors house 2 nights ago in a similar storm and burned the house to the ground. Total loss. These are good people, retired, and this was their retirement dream. Could have been me as we are only a block away. The bolt struck and woke the entire area up as it hit with a massive crash. Storm went on for about 4 hrs.

 

Geez! What a summer.

 

Today

High 100 | Low 76 °F

0% Chance of rain

Gusty winds to 30 mph

 

Yesterday

High 92.3 | Low 70.3 °F

Precip. 0 in as of 3pm

Winds gusty to 30mph

 

Pressure 29.94 in

Visibility 10.0 miles

Clouds Clear

Heat Index 97 °F

Dew Point 76 °F

Humidity 70% - 100%

Rainfall. 1"

[Phil]

Jealous. Did you grab any video?

 

Stop hogging all the severe weather, lol. Been a horrifically boring summer here so far.

[Andie]

Strangely I didn't think of it. When we were driving I was watching the radar in motion and trying to determine where to get off the highway. When we got there we were just glad to be off the highway and alive.

 

Honestly Phil, that was the most jaw dropping lightning I've seen in a very long time. It was hypnotic. I didn't even think to record it. Then there was that one bolt that looked like it had to be over 60' wide when it hit the ground. None of this small strike stuff. This looked more like Arizona storms. It also looked like someone was turning a light switch on and off real fast behind all these bolts. Crazy. Hrs of this stuff. Sorry I was so hypnotized. Oh, you could smell the ozone really strong and the hair raised on your body. Wild.

 

So, okay, what the heck is creating this electrical rich environment?

[weatherfan2012]

HUGE a** electrical storm on the way home to Ft. worth from the Red River around midnight last night.

So bad even the truckers pulled off and refused to drive in to it. We took their lead and pulled off and grabbed some coffee and watched the show From a distance. The widest and craziest acting lightning I've ever seen. Cloud to ground and cloud to cloud that looked like God was ripping the sky in half. Really apocalyptic.

We could see black sheets of rain pouring down in the lightning. Heavy heavy rain. But it was the lightning. One massive bolt went half way across the Texas sky (covered county wide) then did a 90* turn down to the ground and just fried whatever it hit. Stunning stuff. Storm went for well over 3 hours. These were the widest bolts I've ever seen of lavender blue lightning. Gorgeous and deadly.

I haven't witnessed anything like it in many years. This has been the most lightning active year in recent memory.

A bolt of lightning hit a neighbors house 2 nights ago in a similar storm and burned the house to the ground. Total loss. These are good people, retired, and this was their retirement dream. Could have been me as we are only a block away. The bolt struck and woke the entire area up as it hit with a massive crash. Storm went on for about 4 hrs.

Geez! What a summer.

Today

High 100 | Low 76 °F

0% Chance of rain

Gusty winds to 30 mph

Yesterday

High 92.3 | Low 70.3 °F

Precip. 0 in as of 3pm

Winds gusty to 30mph

Pressure 29.94 in

Visibility 10.0 miles

Clouds Clear

Heat Index 97 °F

Dew Point 76 °F

Humidity 70% - 100%

Rainfall. 1"

would loved to see video of this lighting storm.

[weatherfan2012]

Strangely I didn't think of it. When we were driving I was watching the radar in motion and trying to determine where to get off the highway. When we got there we were just glad to be off the highway and alive.

Honestly Phil, that was the most jaw dropping lightning I've seen in a very long time. It was hypnotic. I didn't even think to record it. Then there was that one bolt that looked like it had to be over 60' wide when it hit the ground. None of this small strike stuff. This looked more like Arizona storms. It also looked like someone was turning a light switch on and off real fast behind all these bolts. Crazy. Hrs of this stuff. Sorry I was so hypnotized. Oh, you could smell the ozone really strong and the hair raised on your body. Wild.

So, okay, what the heck is creating this electrical rich environment?

this had to of been awesome yet scary to watch in live prime time there last night.

[Andie]

Most folks were scared. And either pulled off in to parking lots or coffee shops to wait it out.

Being between midnight and 2:30 I suppose most people weren't thinking to get video. I've combed the Internet tonight and nothing. I read some articles on Houstons problem with lightning too. It's just been a very unique and intense spring and summer. Flooding and lightning.

The air is extremely humid and I don't think this is over yet.

 

Were at 87* and 70% humidity at 9pm.

[UnionWX]

90 today.. Looks like I might achieve my 2nd heatwave of the year. Deep deep Summer has begun. Enjoy it folks.

[UnionWX]

Jealous. Did you grab any video?

Stop hogging all the severe weather, lol. Been a horrifically boring summer here so far.

Ugh.. Don't even get me started on it.. we had better tstorms in Feb lol. This week and next week looks very active here, not to sure how it looks down there, probably similar.

[Phil]

Ugh.. Don't even get me started on it.. we had better tstorms Feb lol. This week and next week looks very active here, not to sure how it looks down there, probably similar.

It's Fred's fault. He brought the Seattle summer with him when he moved here.

 

No real storm chances here until Friday, too much downsloping. Otherwise just typical summer weather, low 90s highs w/ low/mid 70s dewpoints. Certainly not a heatwave by DC standards.