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East/Gulf Coast Weather 2016


Phil

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So, as it turns out, that squall line back in February was the highlight of the severe weather season here. Despite being a monster of a storm, it was basically the only game in town all year, unless you count the April fools day windstorm, which was more of a gradient wind event with a convective element.

 

Having said all that, I'd have to rank this as the most disappointing severe weather year since 2011 here. If Matthew fails to affect the area, it'll drop below 2011 in my book, given the impact of hurricane Irene that year.

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Mathew is being a tease. One run it looks like it could be some tropical fun for the Mid Atlantic, another it is spinning in the ocean.

It's a tug-of-war between the Central US trough and the cutoff ULL over the NATL. I think the US trough is gonna win, but that doesn't mean Matthew will make a Mid-Atlantic landfall. Need the trough to negatively tilt w/ an axis to the SW of Matthew to really yank it in.

 

Though then again, it doesn't have to make direct landfall to wreak havoc. Irene tracked right along the coast yet still delivered sustained winds between 40-50mph @ DCA, with gusts between 60-80mph everywhere along/east of the Fall Line.

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00z GFS dramatically weakens the offshore ULL, but that central US trough is more progressive with a northward base, so it flings it out before the phase.

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Dropped to 52.4F this morning under a thick fog. Could smell the autumn leaves.

 

Appears to be an unstable layer above ~5kft, given the mini towers going up. Temperatures in the upper 60s currently, which wouldn't suggest any surface based instability.

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This thing breaks out over the Caribbean and gets a big gulp of that warm water it's going to build and Orlando better batten down the hatches. You too Phil. It may be down to a Cat 2 by the time it reaches your neighborhood but that's enough to wreck to lawn furniture !

 

I keep wondering if there's a chance for a GOM hurri but so far we've been spared.

 

We're at 85, but feels like a cold front.

Windy 11mph, 19 mph gusts.

Humidity 58%

Dew point 69

 

All in all, pretty nice. Bit breezy, but what heck, beats a hurricane any day.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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I'm leaning towards a quick right hook before it gets here. I'm worried about the Georgia Isles, though. That area is like a second home to me.

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Looks like you missed your hurri there Phil.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Hope Georgia isn't impacted to heavily. These things are nothing to trifle over and many did not evacuate.

 

Anyone think it could enter the Gulf? Or is it definitely going to stay in the Atlantic?

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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So glad this thing didn't do what they feared it would. Flooding is bad, and beach erosion bad, but so far reports are nothing like they'd feared.

The season isn't over yet, but perhaps the Gulf has dogged the bullet for 2016.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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So glad this thing didn't do what they feared it would. Flooding is bad, and beach erosion bad, but so far reports are nothing like they'd feared.

The season isn't over yet, but perhaps the Gulf has dogged the bullet for 2016.

I'm growing more and more confident that the Gulf is safe for the rest of this season but my opinion isn't much.

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That's fine with me, our Taxes are high enough. Can't afford any more State repairs.

 

If we get our average winter things will be fine.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Brutal cutoff w/ the rain this evening. Picked up just 0.13".

 

Waiting for the pressure surge/corresponding N/NW breezes, first offshore gradient wind event of the cool season. Looking at maybe 30-35mph.

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Currently 57.7/49 early this morning with a light drizzle falling intermittently. Can hear the breeze outside from in our bedroom.

 

Probably hitting 30-35mph out of the north, but unfortunately my anemometer is blocked by pine trees from that direction, so the peak gust is only 20mph so far.

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Looks like DCA gusted to 42mph. So far I've got 27mph through the trees.

 

Dewpoints dropping into the upper 30s and low 40s, perfect for a midday jog. I love downsloping days. :wub:

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I'm worried about a major ice storm or two this winter. I suspect the pattern will be highly conducive for CAD/overrunning at times w/ that WATL ridge nosing in at times from the NE.

 

As I alluded to earlier, I also suspect this will be a variable winter, with powerful arctic shots and mild periods occurring on a relatively frequent basis. Basically the opposite of last winter, which was more of the stagnant type.

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Made it down to 37.2F this morning. Noticing fewer mosquitos and crickets around today as a result.

 

Hard to believe it was 95 degrees a little over 3 weeks ago. As usual, summer's back was broken by a single early autumn storm system.

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Made it down to 42º north of Philly in Lansdale. I had to drop off my wife at the airport and the temp was in the mid fifties by the Delaware river.

Same story here. Low of 42 degrees, low 50s in DC.

 

Gotta love UHI.

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Looks like I might be moving to the Germantown/Damascus area next summer or fall, in the northern portion of the county. Cheap property values, convenient location, and most importantly, much better weather vs here. :P

 

My gf would be working in Gaithersburg while I'd be finishing up school at both the College Park and Gaithersburg Campuses, so it'd be perfect. Would gain between 500ft and 600ft in elevation, which makes a huge difference during winter. Average snowfall would be close to 30", a opposed to the ~20" I currently average. Also get higher wind speeds up there, so the atmosphere is generally better mixed and cleaner overall, especially notable during the summer. The one downfall would be poor radiational cooling at night, but that's a trade-off I'm willing to take.

 

Summers are slightly cooler, and dewpoints are noticeably lower than here in the swamp. Summer rainfall is higher, as is thunderstorm frequency. All traits I'd love.

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Sounds like a nice change.  So is this still Md.?  In the hills/mts.?

 

I'm shocked you don't like stifling heat and humidity !! 

 

My other half wants to either move to or get a small condo in Flagstaff.  Wish he'd said that 10 yrs ago when property was cheaper.   I told him a condo was better as the family he's closest to is in Texas and his wife insists on living and dying in Texas.  Besides property is affordable, lower taxes, and great property protection laws, not to mention most native Texans are pretty nice and many import residents bail after a couple summers.

 

Hope this goes well for you.   

 

Our temps have dropped as has the humidity.  Very nice weather lately.

High 77*  Low 61*  humidity around 60 - 65% (a bit high, but ok for us)

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Trees are running late this year. Still not much in the way of color around here.

 

October looks to be the 5th consecutive warmer than average month across the region. Would also make the last 15/17 months warmer than average..quite the warm period we've entered.

 

In other news, hoping for some weather next week. Looks like a cutoff low develops to our S/W on latest guidance. Would lead to another period of onshore flow and precipitation, but no signs of any persistent cool, canadian air in the pattern yet..

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What a blowtorch next week. Highs in the 80s? Yuck.

 

Can already tell this is going to be another predominantly mild winter, though probably not as mild as last winter. Analogs suggest a behemoth Arctic shot is possible in January.

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Yeah yet some like Dave keep harping on the huge snow gains up north upcoming I would love for them to be right.but it's hard to dismissed as you said phil the warm trend over the last 18 months or so.it eather going to be a all out warm winter or one heck of a pattern snap which is also possable as well.as sooner or later the pattern of warmth will break down.I can foresee a big battle in a few years with a possable deep solar minimum upcoming over the next few cycles would argue for some big time cold winters over the next few decades or more at least.it will be interesting none the less how patterns turn out with cycles 25 and 26.

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Yeah yet some like Dave keep harping on the huge snow gains up north upcoming I would love for them to be right.but it's hard to dismissed as you said phil the warm trend over the last 18 months or so.it eather going to be a all out warm winter or one heck of a pattern snap which is also possable as well.as sooner or later the pattern of warmth will break down.I can foresee a big battle in a few years with a possable deep solar minimum upcoming over the next few cycles would argue for some big time cold winters over the next few decades or more at least.it will be interesting none the less how patterns turn out with cycles 25 and 26.

Yeah I've noticed that our winters seem to cycle either on a 2yr periodicity, or a 3yr-to-1yr periodicity (three mild, one cold, or visa versa).

 

As of late we've been in a two year cycle. Harsh winters in 2009/10 and 2010/11, mild winters in 2011/12 and 2012/13, harsh winters in 2013/14 and 2014/15, and mild winters in 2015/16 and 2016/17(?). Snowfall is a different story, though, and has more to do with storm track than temperature. Snowfall averages seem to fluctuate on decadal scales w/ longer term variations in the Hadley/Walker cell ratios and solar activity.

 

I'm expecting some very harsh winters to close out this decade, as we come out of this multiyear Niña/cold neutral stretch during the heart of a deep solar minimum under a high NPAC/NATL Hadley Cell differential, but we'll have to get through at least one more mild winter (2016/17), and possibly a mild 2017/18 if it ends up being Niña/-QBO. If it goes neutral/-QBO, then the picture changes.

 

As of now, I'm thinking 2018/19 and 2019/20 will be very harsh winters, with 2019/20 being your typical solar min niño response w/ blocking and consistent snowfall.

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Record highs should be easy today. Mid-80s region wide. At least the longer October nights allow lows to drop into the 50s most of the time. Woke up to 55 degrees and a light fog this morning.

 

Looks like we finally get a low frequency pattern change later this week. Almost a classic Archambault event w/ the NAO flip.

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We'll hit 91 today, but a front on Wednesday afternoon will bring us temps in the 70's and rain. Thankfully we're in our Fall pattern.

I'm hoping we get rain this winter as long range is saying dry.

 

So what do you think, will the southern plains be dry, or normal ?

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Noticed a change in the trees today, particularly in the tulip poplars. Some differential shades of yellow showing up.

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We hit 97* today. Too warm for mid Oct. Front will come through tomorrow night and we'all have 73* on Thurs ( my birthday gift) and 70* on Friday. Lower humidity and a slightly chilly wind. Wonderful !

This front should bring the DFW area about .45" of rain. 'Bout time.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Looks like we warmed 24 degrees in 3hrs yesterday morning, from 54 degrees at 8AM to 78 degrees by 11AM.

 

Decent swing for autumn. Usually these big diurnal swings are more common during Spring when the humidity is lower.

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DCA is current at 87F, which is the hottest temperature ever recorded there so late in the year.

 

High temp/dew here today is 83.8/68. Nasty, glad this torch is coming to an end. Hopefully this is the last 80+ day for the next five months.

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Dewpoint hovering around 70 degrees right now. Yuck.

 

Huge changes in the trees over the last few days. Everything was green just two days ago, now lots of color showing up.

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