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East/Gulf Coast Weather 2016


Phil

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We all need it badly.

 

Terrible situation ongoing in Gatlinburg TN. Wildfire there is so out of control it's producing its own "weather" now, with winds over 80mph and temperatures up to 120 degrees occurring downtown.

Definitely praying for those folks out there. The Pigeon Forge, Sevierville and Gatlinburg area are some of my favorite places I've ever been. The Smokies are quite beautiful and a lot of people there rely on seasonal visitors for income.

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We'll have a front roll in Friday with temps between 60 and 45 roughly but our first freeze may occur next week on Thursday the 8th.

Rain this Saturday and Monday.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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The Euro is showing some very frigid air next week.

 

IMG_2264.PNG

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Looks like some early-season cold in the pipeline starting late next week, either Thursday or Friday. Maybe a few days with highs in the mid/upper 20s? Either way it looks like colder weather and some snowfall opportunities will begin shortly.

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Wind is roaring today, enough to make house creak and rumble at times. Have to say, this winter feels like like it's starting out somewhat more "rationally" than recent years which were early season blowtorches, though November was brutally warm once again.

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Hope you get a cracking winter Phil! I look forward to reading your comments and seeing the pics.

 

We had a heavy mass of rain move up from the SW last night. I played radar girl for a husband northbound the the Red River to hunt for a few days. I hope the deer wear galoshes. It came down in buckets up there. We're expecting another 1/2" over the next few days. Very welcomed. Then the temps will dip next week if the models are right.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Lolz, gotta love the NAM.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/311E4166-0999-449C-A652-FDD852AAE0A9_zpsfxbtifgc.jpg

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Rain/sleet/snow mix here at 42.3 degrees, thanks to evaporative cooling/werbulbing. Should turn over to all rain shortly.

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Received another trace of snow/sleet followed by a quarter-inch of rain last night. Clearing now w/ the W/NW winds starting.

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Certainly has been a impressive warm background signal it makes you wonder when this background snaps how exstream the other direction ends up being if not this winter but eather next or the following one.with the solar minimum around 2019-2020 the winters in a few years will be interesting to follow.then the real question becomes what happens with the winters doing cycles 25 and 26 going to be a interesting the next few decades to watch.

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they sure like to blame AGW at every cost but I think there are other factors that caused this.
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Thursday we will see a high of 44 and our first low below 30 at 29*. No precipitation expected for a week though. Looks like winter is finally at the door.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Hopefully it starts snowing soon. Given we'll probably have some decent early-season Arctic air filtering into the region next week, there's a chance we'll stumble into some frozen precipitation somehow, despite an unfavorable storm track for the most part, under generally zonal flow @ 500mb.

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Long range 00z GFS is an icebox. Highs in the single digits in the suburbs, lows in the -10s.

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Winds are roaring again here tonight. Gusted to 41mph out of the W/NW earlier.

 

Should make it into the low/mid 20s tonight..currently 33.4/14.

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This is the perfect example of why Niñas suck for snowfall around here. Bitter cold is easy, but the Niña storm track typically runs waaay west, barring a big -NAO.

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As if it isn't cold enough now, it appears we're going to be enjoying more of the same. The north and northeast especially.

 

 

"Around the middle of December, an even colder blast of air will follow this week's frigid conditions over the central and eastern U.S.

This next major push of arctic air will follow a series of snowstorms over part of the Northern states.

"The air mass on the way for the middle of December is likely to be substantially colder, when compared to that of this past week and this weekend," according to AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok". Accuweather

 

 

IMG_2267.JPG

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Btw, incase I did not tell you guys.

I have gotten a new job and will be moving to the great hills of NWNJ starting the 20th of this month.

Pumped up.

Congrats man! May I ask in what field of work?

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Dry and chilly today. Couldn't make it past 33.9 degrees despite the blazing sunshine and dry surface boundary layer.

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Phil - what does the rest of winter look like?

Thinking variable in the long run, bouts of notable warmth and extreme cold potentially. However, timing the pattern changes in winters like this can be extremely difficult and easy to screw up.

 

Some of the data suggests we'll warm up for a few weeks around the Holidays. That's definitely not climo in this type of year, but then again, nothing has really gone to plan this year anyway so it might happen.

 

My gut still tells me to expect a period of strong blocking during mid/late January and a shot of very cold air, with a few storm systems delivering snow/ice, possibly a legitimate ice storm at some point. For whatever reason, I've had this hunch that we're in for a nasty ice storm, but we've been chasing that ghost for awhile now.

 

Now, if things break anomalously in the topics and we truly kill off the maritime forcing, then February could be an icebox. However, as of right now I'm leaning warm overall for that month.

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23 degrees as of 1230AM. Might make the upper teens tonight though cloud cover might preclude that. If not the next shot of cold air should easily do it.

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Winter weather advisory for Fred and UnionWx, probably an inch or two of snow with some crust on top. One thing to keep in mind here..low level cold almost always overperforms. In fact, I've never seen a low level cold wedge underperform once in my life. Loves to hang on for as long as possible.

 

I'm in a crappy location for this one, though. Maybe a bit of frozen precipitation on the front end here, followed by some 33 degree rain and sleet. Lol.

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Haha, the 12z Para GFS goes rogue and dumps 8-12" of snow ove the region on Xmas eve, before a flip to sleet/zr thereafter.

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As nice as that would be you know that is just a cruel tease by the gfs Para way to good to be true lol but we can dream right phil :)

Yeah I'll eat a bug if that verifies.

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So, Phil, is North Texas going to miss out on any white stuff this winter? I've read we'll have cold but as to snow, we're not in the running.

Also, this past week it's been very damp with the cold and quite miserable.

 

However, I hear bugs are very good grilled with a little salsa. Just in case.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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So, Phil, is North Texas going to miss out on any white stuff this winter? I've read we'll have cold but as to snow, we're not in the running.

Also, this past week it's been very damp with the cold and quite miserable.

However, I hear bugs are very good grilled with a little salsa. Just in case.

the models are having as much of a hard time furgering out this winter as we all our :)
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Well, it's a bit coocoo here. Woke up to a pea souper this morning. Couldn't see 30'. We've had a variety of weather this week alone. War is hell, cold as heck, windy, now fog, then gorgeous this afternoon. If the weather doesn't kill us, it'll be an interesting winter.

 

But really, it's just all over the place.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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So, Phil, is North Texas going to miss out on any white stuff this winter? I've read we'll have cold but as to snow, we're not in the running.

Also, this past week it's been very damp with the cold and quite miserable.

 

However, I hear bugs are very good grilled with a little salsa. Just in case.

Hey Andie! I am coming back to Texas on Friday and staying through the next Thursday. I am watching this so I may as well chime in.

 

Looks like a pretty crazy cold front on Saturday with temperatures falling from the 70s to the teens lol. Right now the cold front is dry but that could easily change.

 

I am more interested in what could happen early next week. There is a cut off low that will form near the US border over towards Az. The solutions with it closer to Texas pull it in while the cold air is in place and deliver a snow or ice storm. Other solutions keep it further west and nothing happens. So we really have no way to know what will happen but it is possible that it snows in about a week if it all comes together. 

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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Interesting ! I hope you get your snow !

 

I may be on the road Christmas so I want dry weather then it can snow! It's such a weird time weatherwise down here. So, if nothing else it may give you some weirdness. It's seems very damp so anything could happen. Abilene is higher in elevation so you may get it there where as DFw will see rain. The cut off is somewhere around Weatherford. You can literally see the lined up to the elevation drop.

Welcome to Texas !

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Interesting ! I hope you get your snow !

 

I may be on the road Christmas so I want dry weather then it can snow! It's such a weird time weatherwise down here. So, if nothing else it may give you some weirdness. It's seems very damp so anything could happen. Abilene is higher in elevation so you may get it there where as DFw will see rain. The cut off is somewhere around Weatherford. You can literally see the lined up to the elevation drop.

Welcome to Texas !

 

I think odds are better that we don't get any, but it will be fun to see what happens. Anyway it will be fun to be back, I always like visiting :) 

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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Looking like another crap fest shaping up for Christmas and the holidays the last 3 to 5 Christmas weather wise has sucked big time.with last year being especially bad nothing worse then feeling lIke may on Christmas eve and day.kind of making you rooting for the solar minimum to start doing it work in a few years to hopefully change this pattern.those we have to be careful what we may wish for if solar cycles 25 and 26 end up as close to no shows the jury is still out on how the next few cycles behave in reather this is more of a simple cooling periold or something more serious.

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