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East/Gulf Coast Weather 2016


Phil

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Wouldn't surprise me to see several 40-50+mph gusts across the region this afternoon. Should be a good setup for downsloping,

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Man, it's howling out there, by far the strongest gradient wind event of the year so far.

 

My anemometer is somewhat sheltered and still recorded a 53mph gust.

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Much calmer today overall, highest gust is 37mph as of now.

 

Currently 53/27, fairly comfortable in the sunshine.

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Beautiful out there, 61/25 currently with a blizzard of cherry blossom petals on sunny southerly breezes.

 

I'm going to thoroughly enjoy April and May while they last.

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March was another blowtorch month overall, minus the early month snowfall and mid-month "attempt".

 

Hopefully the last several months aren't a sign of what's to come going forward, otherwise it's going to be a long, torrid warm season.

 

image.png

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Incredible how consistently warm it has been the last few months.

Yeah, really starting to look like we've entered warm background regimen that should continue into the warm season, and will continue probably for another year or two.

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Looks like a good shot for some thunderstorms on Friday.

Shear/dynamics aloft look great, but surface instability/CAPE might be a problem if we can't scour out the lower levels. Still a bit early for us, severe-wise, but I like what I'm seeing in the overall patterns this year.

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I'm just over eager and think that anything with more than a couple strikes of lightning is severe.

 

I'm excited for my first Tornado warning.

In that case you'll probably be satisfied.

 

You can have the tornadoes, though. We had one narrowly miss us in 2003 and it was (and remains) the scariest experience of my life. I was 10yrs old and remember it like it was yesterday.

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Yeah, really starting to look like we've entered warm background regimen that should continue into the warm season, and will continue probably for another year or two.

agreed what happens after 2017 the late 20teens and 2020s depends largely on what happens with the upcoming solar minimum.also depends how severe or deep cycles 25 and 26 end up being which will determined how strong of a cooling the next 50 years ends up being.a couple of cycles that end up as no shows would be quite troublesome.so it will be interesting to see how this does play out.I still beleave the periold after 2017 is going to be a test for both sides idea wise.we likey should enjoy the over all warm background singal as it could crash fast and hard sooner or later.
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Nice AFD from LWX this morning. Going conservative on winds as usual, but wouldn't be surprised to see 60+mph gusts in the lowlands with the secondary frontal passage Saturday evening/night, given the CAA/pressure surge under 65-70kt winds at 950mb. Might even hit hurricane force on the ridgetops out west.

 

 

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE APPALACHIANS FRIDAY MORNING AND SHOWERS WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH A NON- CLIMO TIME OF DAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS...LOW CAPE AND MODERATE SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH TO FORM THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE/I-95 BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. FCST CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST NEAR 1000 J/KG IN THIS AREA WITH MODERATE SHEAR. BEST LOCATION WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF I-95. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE EVENING. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING.

 

DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I- 95. TEMPS IN THE 60S EXPECTED SATURDAY.

 

&&

 

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST STATES SAT NIGHT BRINGING A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR FOR EARLY APRIL STANDARDS. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MTNS WITH 1-3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION LIKELY. RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF THE MTNS SAT EVENING WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE PRECIP ENDS BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ANOTHER CONCERN IS FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH BEHIND FROPA. GFS SHOWS STRONG 3-HR PRESSURE SURGE OF 5 TO 7 MB. LATEST SREF SHOWS 70% OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 MPH OVER THE MTNS AND NORTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WHILE GFS 500-METER WINDS AGL ARE UP TO 65 KTS IN THE MTNS AND 58 KT OVER NORTHEAST MD. WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS APPEAR LIKELY WITH WARNING CRITERIA WINDS POSSIBLE AT ELEVATIONS ABV 3500 FT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A WIND CHILL IN THE AIR AS TEMPERATURES PLUMMET THROUGH THE 30S AND 20S AND WINDS STRENGTHEN. ALSO...FREEZE WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED FOR SAT NIGHT AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK SINCE WE`RE STARTING FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM EARLIER THIS YEAR.

 

SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS MON LEADING TO A REBOUND IN TEMPS. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA MON NIGHT BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA MON NIGHT. OVERALL...ROLLER COASTER RIDE WITH LARGE SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

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Clouds are racing across the sky this morning under the LLJ. Looks like a good amount of clear sky so might be able to obtain some heating/mixing of those winds down to the surface. Gusts probably top out at 40mph, ideally.

 

As for Saturday night, I'd love a High Wind Warning caliber event. We're due for one, and frankly it's been a pathetic year for gradient windstorms so far. Let's do this!

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Beautiful day today, high of 74/50 this afternoon around 350pm.

 

Breezy at times also, gusts between 30-40mph regionwide this afternoon, with 46mph measured in Germantown, MD, at WxBug Headquarters.

 

Modeling still looks impressive with the pressure surge Saturday night. If these solutions hold or improve through the next 24hrs, I think there's a good chance for a high wind warning criteria event in the area. Also might see some convective snow squalls, though I suspect most of that activity will occur over the mountains into PA/NJ, where forcing/orographics will be a bit more favorable.

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Woah, the 00z NAM is a beast with the windstorm Saturday night. Taken verbatim, it would deliver 60-70mph gusts to the area, along with convective snow squalls.

 

This one is ours. :)

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Cluster of high-base thunderstorms w/ frequent lightning approaching from SW VA. Could get loud here in a few hours if they hold together.

 

High wind watches already going up for the Saturday night event. The latest AFD mentions storm force winds over the waters and blowout tides, too. Finally, a prolonged active weather pattern is upon us.

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Sorry to be absent so much. Fretting over a novel that's more complex than I expected.

 

Not much to report in Texas except the usual rain, sun pattern. We're still on the cool side. In the 50's this morning. Most folks I talk to aren't ready for summer so I'm happy to be dealing with the chill.

 

 

Any comments on what the summer will be like in the southern plains ?? Please.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

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Impressive 12z 4km NAM run, progging a 70kt LLJ under a 7.5mb/3hr pressure surge during optimal CAA. Winds would easily reach warning criteria in this circumstance, with a few isolated 70mph gusts possible.

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Sorry to be absent so much. Fretting over a novel that's more complex than I expected.

 

Not much to report in Texas except the usual rain, sun pattern. We're still on the cool side. In the 50's this morning. Most folks I talk to aren't ready for summer so I'm happy to be dealing with the chill.

 

 

Any comments on what the summer will be like in the southern plains ?? Please.

I'm thinking warmer than normal, probably drier than normal too (particularly during the second half of summer), barring any tropical cyclone activity/influence.

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Looks like a borderline-severe cluster of cells is heading for you, Fred. I hope you make it home in time to observe it.

 

In other news, downsloping is killing us here, as is often the case in the absence of high CAPE and/or a focused boundary.

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Gorgeous out there, currently 83/58. Loving the low humidity.

 

Winds are gusting pretty good here, aided by the downslope component as winds beer along the broad boundary. Looks like generally 30-40mph across the area.

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LWX betting a weak nocturnal inversion/slightly weaker 850mb jet will cap winds at 55mph south of a line from Gaithersburg to Annapolis. High Wind Warnings hoisted north of that line, wind advisories south. Probably too conservative, in my not so humble opinion, given the adiabatic warming that will occur under the pressure surge in conjunction with the CAA aloft.

 

I suspect we'll manage 60mph here, not sure about locations S/E of the Fall Line, though. I would upgrade SE Montgomery/DC/Fairfax/Loudon to a HWW, and hoist a wind advisory for any counties in central VA not included in the original product, but that's just my unprofessional opinion.

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Gusts overperforming in Ohio. Already gusting to 63mph in Dayton, OH, with gusts regionwide coming in higher than HRRR/RAP prognostications.

 

Let's do this thing!

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Looks like there is a squall line out there forming, Might see a little snow tonight before the winds pick up. 58Fº and partly cloudy with a very light wind, in Montgomery County.

There will almost certainly be a squall along the boundary, probably more impressive up your way than down here. I can't think of a strong vortmax without one at this time of year. Going to be a heavy wind producer in of itself.

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HRRR really cranks the winds in the squall..zone of 70mph gusts heading for Philadelphia. Looks like 60mph in the DC area.

 

image.jpeg

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Monster gusts reported west of here. First round (ahead of the boundary) should be here in 5-10 minutes.

 

Edit: Woah, close to 80mph reported in Snowshoe, WV. Lots of 60+mph gusts about 50 miles from here. Going to be a heavy event.

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Reached 52mph, seemed much stronger with leaves on the trees. The bigger gusts with the main squalls have yet to arrive from the west.

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Hit 61mph here, Dulles has gusted to 65mph, a few 70mph gusts out west! Winds still getting stronger.

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Looks like LWX finally got a clue. High Wind Warnings issued, wind advisories cancelled for the DC metro.

 

I'm starting to get nervous. Really howling.

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Some Facebook reports noting that the wind event with the squall was "prolonged" and stronger than some of the summer events they have experienced in the past.

Yeah, like most of these events the squalls deliver the first round of gusts, the cold air advection/pressure surge lags by a few hours and delivers the second/often stronger round of gusts. Strongest winds associated with the pressure surge/jet should arrive after 1AM.

 

Looks like DCA just gusted to 59mph.

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The CAA/gradient winds have started here. Will be interesting to see if we can see more gusts in the 60-65mph range.

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Looks like the jetmax itself has yet to arrive..should pass through the DC-PHI corridor between 2AM and 6AM if I'm timing it right.

 

Highest gust since the squall here is 47mph, but a huge gust just hit maybe 500 yards away. Could hear it from inside.

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Wintergreen, VA just gusted to 73mph. After an extended lull, big gusts showing up again on stations to the west of here.

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Entire house is shaking, gusted to 68mph through the trees, third strongest gradient-wind event of my life (next to February 2011 and January 2008).

 

Went outside to take a video and there are so many transformers blowing in the the distance it looks like an incoming thunderstorm. Got some decent (dark) video, haha.

 

Looks like IAD gusted to 66mph.

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