East/Gulf Coast Weather 2016

[Phil]

[Phil]

Monster CAPE on the 12z CFS @ 786hrs! Haha.

 

[weatherfan2012]

Classic sharp boundary in our reagion from big thunderstorms in west Virginia to the Ohio vally reagion to bring stuck in a cool marine layer east of the mountains these marine type set ups can be very stubborn and hard to dislodge doing the spring months it not until June when things become more favorable for thunderstorms in our reagion with less marine influence.July could be an active month in our reagion severe weather wise from some of the analogs

[Phil]

 

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...NORTHERN PAGE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...NORTH CENTRAL ROCKINGHAM COUNTY IN WESTERN VIRGINIA...SOUTHWESTERN WARREN COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...SHENANDOAH COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...

 

* UNTIL 945 PM EDT

 

* AT 907 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR TIMBERVILLE...OR 20 MILES NORTH OF HARRISONBURG...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

[Phil]

Classic sharp boundary in our reagion from big thunderstorms in west Virginia to the Ohio vally reagion to bring stuck in a cool marine layer east of the mountains these marine type set ups can be very stubborn and hard to dislodge doing the spring months it not until June when things become more favorable for thunderstorms in our reagion with less marine influence.July could be an active month in our reagion severe weather wise from some of the analogs

Yeah, the marine wedge looks to hold the thunderstorm activity west of the blue ridge tonight.

 

It should erode tomorrow, but forcing looks meager despite satisfactory CAPE w/ highs in the low/mid 80s and dews in the low 60s.

[Phil]

Lightning flashes visible to the west..maybe enough elevated instability to maintain these cells here?

[Phil]

Beautiful afternoon, currently 80/65 with bright sunshine. Maybe a tad humid, but just barely noticeable.

 

Expecting heavier thunderstorms to move in from the southwest later this evening. Coverage should be decent, but severe potential looks somewhat limited, so probably nothing more than a few spotty 60+mph gusts this time. Small hail and/or frequent lightning looks like a good bet, however.

[Phil]

Widespread severe activity down in VA/NC, some already producing 70mph winds and golfball-sized hail. Looks to be heading this way, so hopefully there's enough instability to keep things interesting tonight.

[Phil]

Legitimate supercell to the SW of here..might make a left hook. Interesting looking on the notorious SW flank:

 

[Phil]

This thing is making lots of noise. Latest velocity scans are intriguing, to say the least. Probably a strong microburst in there, maybe a spin-up?

[Phil]

Update:

 

[Phil]

Nothing even close to severe here, just heavy rain and lots of intra-cloud lightning. That storm to the south is legitimate, though.

 

Nice practice-round for when the real stuff happens.

[Phil]

Stuff firing everywhere..not too much in the way of severe, but lightning is illuminating the sky constantly as the sun sets.

[weatherfan2012]

Yeah my lighting dectectors are consistently beebing.quite a lighting show tonight at the very least tonight.

[weatherfan2012]

Quite a blob of heavey rains and thunder moving in.as you said not severe but at least we got a practice drill for the upcoming summer convection that is to come.also the heaviest rain perhaps since March tonight in the reagion

[Andie]

We received an inch of rain this morning. Lots of thunder banging about.

High today of 61 and a low of 46 tonight. Very odd for this time of year.

So, we enjoy the chill while we may in May.

[Phil]

Had a pretty close strike here about an hour ago, caught it on video.

 

[Phil]

We finished with 3.53" of rain over 4hrs. That'd be a decent deluge even by midsummer standards.

 

Some pics of today's convection:

 

Anvil head of initial supercell around 6pm:

 

 

Departure of initial supercell:

 

[Phil]

Reports of tennis ball sized hail in Rockville, with baseball sized hail reported in various locales in southern MD.

 

Gusts between 60-70mph in DC proper, wind core missed me by 2 miles. Hit maybe 20mph here.

[Phil]

Woodbridge, VA:

 

https://twitter.com/cortnir/status/727265150131019776

[Phil]

First picture is DC proper, second picture is La Plata. Got these off Twitter:

 

 

[weatherfan2012]

First picture is DC proper, second picture is La Plata. Got these off Twitter:

image.jpeg

image.jpeg

impressive shots and impressive storm that hit down there you can tell by the structure of it that it was a supercell in nature.

[Phil]

For Philadelphia weather, it looks showery and cool (seasonally speaking) up through the weekend, with some instability this Sunday and temps pushing 80 or so.

 

If the rest of Spring was like what is has been over the past week, then I think I could be ok with face melting humidity.

Yeah, the first half of May looks cooler/wetter than average overall across the region. Not many severe chances this early in the year, but enough "weather" to keep things at least somewhat interesting.

 

I think we flip the pattern in mid/late May, with a warmer/drier than average pattern taking hold through/until early June, perhaps beyond depending on the propagatory nature of the developing IO forcing. Good news is you'll have time to adjust, as warm patterns in late May typically yield dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s as opposed to the mid/upper 70s and above, typically observed in July/August.

[Phil]

Accumulating snowfall in the mountains of NC/WV today. Even some thundersnow reports. Probably more on the way through the next week above 4500ft or so under any deep/closed ULLs.

[Phil]

This pattern kinda sucks. Going weeks without sunshine is typical of April, not May.

 

Climatologically speaking, early/mid May is our best stretch of weather all year. Wasting it on this crap is starting to irritate me.

[weatherfan2012]

We have a winter like coaster storm now taking shape off the coast lol this pattern stinks for may standers.

[Phil]

Beech Mountain, NC:

 

[Phil]

We have a winter like coaster storm now taking shape off the coast lol this pattern stinks for may standers.

The analog aggregate I'm using suggests this will be a cool/troughy month overall.

 

[weatherfan2012]

Watch it go from cool straight to summer hot hazy and humied June July and August into september which is usually how it works around here.

[Phil]

Watch it go from cool straight to summer hot hazy and humied June July and August into september which is usually how it works around here.

I think June might be nice/tolerable overall with transience in the pattern(s), however July/August look scary. Virtually unanimous analog agreement on a heatwave/blast furnace pattern starting sometime in July.

[weatherfan2012]

Agreed 100 percent

[Phil]

Already over 6" of rain for the month around here. Wettest month since last June, when ~ 13" of rain fell. At least that drenching came in the form of numerous severe weather outbreaks.

[Phil]

If the ECMWF/EPS depiction is correct regarding the tropical forcings/MJO, we'll transition into a warm/dry pattern later this month into June.

 

Accounting for the tylical propagation of these intraseasonal waves and subsequent harmonics, assuming that's what we have here, that'd put us on track for a reprieve in mid/late June, followed by the "real deal" in July, in terms of heat.

[Andie]

What a crazy spring for many of us.  All manner of precipitation and drama.

 

Texas is expecting thunderstorms Sunday night/Monday morning.  Remains to be seen how powerful.

But we've had some amazing downpours.  Lately, stunningly beautiful weather.

Cool air, sparkling skies.  But just wait a minute and it will change.

 

Love the sky photos. Especially the one over DC.  Looks like Judgement Day !

[Phil]

What a crazy spring for many of us. All manner of precipitation and drama.

 

Texas is expecting thunderstorms Sunday night/Monday morning. Remains to be seen how powerful.

But we've had some amazing downpours. Lately, stunningly beautiful weather.

Cool air, sparkling skies. But just wait a minute and it will change.

 

Love the sky photos. Especially the one over DC. Looks like Judgement Day !

Gonna be one of those summers, I think. I'm watching early June for a potential derecho pattern, where exactly the EML advection/gradient sets up is still in question.

 

Yeah that was a solid thunderstorm day here, though nothing severe or noteworthy occurred in my backyard. Three seperate sub-severe cells did blow through here, with two lightning strikes hitting within 200 yards of the house. Best part was watching near-continuous lightning persist for approximately 4 hours, even in-between the cells.

[Phil]

Finally some sunshine today/tomorrow before the next round of clouds/rain. Currently 62/50 with scattered cumulus, somewhat chilly by May standards.

 

Troughy patterns in April/May suck because they're perpetually cloudy, as opposed to midsummer troughs, which generate thunderstorms as opposed to stratiform rain.

[Phil]

Interesting depiction of the climatological timeline of tornado season across the country:

 

http://www.sciencebuzz.org/sites/default/files/images/Tornado_Peak_time.jpg

 

http://www.sciencebuzz.org/blog/when-tornado-season

[Phil]

Beautiful day, despite the wind. Currently 67/33 with a WNW wind sustained at 17mph, with a peak gust of 43mph. Gusts are stronger than I expected today.

[Phil]

Looks like a significant cold shot next weekend, at least by May standards. Probably this pattern's last hurrah.

 

Afterwards, a large scale pattern change looks to occur, as IO/MT forcing takes over, leading to a -AAM/RNA response. So, we'll probably enter a warm/dry pattern later in the month.

[Phil]

Already have high-level clouds moving in ahead of the warm front associated with the next system. Another week without sunshine upcoming.

[Phil]

Now at 13 consecutive days with measurable rainfall here. Currently 58/53 with drizzle after moderate rain through the morning.

 

Probably will be cloudy/wet all week.

[Phil]

Looks like summer starts in ~2 weeks. Will be like the flip of a switch.

[Phil]

Some lightning/thunder ongoing here.

 

Wasn't expecting thunderstorms tonight. Several small cells popping up around the area under the WAA.

[Phil]

That one shook the house real good. Nearly simultaneous lightning/thunder.

[weatherfan2012]

Was it expecting thunderstorms tonight some good elevated stuff tonight.

[Phil]

Okay, I've had enough of this weather. Now 16 consecutive days with measurable precipitation, including downpours last night and most of the day today.

 

Currently 58/56 with mist. Average high is well into the 70s at this point.

[Andie]

Ah now,...come August you'll be howling about something else. North Texas has rain in the forecast for the next 10 days. No one is complaining either. We've had some outstanding light shows. Tremendous amount of lightning in these storms, but never the less we know what life is like with the rain spickette shut down. Farmers aren't complaining, neither are the lakes and aquifers.

 

Take it and smile my friend, you could be screaming about the doldrums with no wind, rain, or relief. I know it can get on your nerves but it could be far worse...like us come July and August.

 

High today 87*

 

Humidity. 68% !? I was working out in it this afternoon and actually got faint. I I've lived here 98% of my life.

[Phil]

Heavy hailstorm about 70 miles SW of here today:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&persist_app=1&v=fJcLnigpzQE

[Andie]

That looks more like the storms in the plains and south central plains. I've only been in two where I was really concerned. The worst being the May 1995 storm that ripped off my shingles, wiped out my skylight and saw a funnel hit on the west side of the property, bounce, and hit on the east of the property. We had baseball sized hail with that one. Here's some images.

 

 

 

[Phil]

Confirmed tornadoes through 2016 so far. I think the VA EF3s occurred during the February outbreak.