East/Gulf Coast Weather 2016

[Phil]

I remember when we used to get interesting weather during the Spring. Time for a change.

[Phil]

Currently 65/65 with rain/fog. We've officially had 18 consecutive days with measurable precipitation here, with more likely tomorrow. Monthly total is 7.64".

 

I don't like what I'm seeing, pattern progression wise. There are a handful of summers w/ Niña/-QBO transitions under +PDO/+IO dominance, and despite having hoped otherwise, this year is following the script perfectly.

 

That script reads: "Craptastic Spring, tolerable June, furnace from July-October, suck it". There's just no middle ground in these years.

[Phil]

Front cleared, beautiful afternoon. Now 78/52 with sunny skies and downsloping winds.

 

Wouldn't be surprised to see isolated 60+mph gusts tomorrow afternoon under any low-topped convection that can develop along/ahead of the front. Will be tough to obtain anything widespread given low dewpoints.

[Phil]

The clouds/rain over the last two weeks have highs running over 10F below average over the period. Lows have been just below average. Our average highs typically hover in the mid-70s right about now.

 

Aggregated highs/lows, temperature anomalies over the last 2 weeks have run 4-7F below average.

 

http://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/14dTDeptUS.png

[Phil]

Squall moving in..no signs of lightning/thunder as of yet, but sky is super dark w/ awesome motion:

 

[weatherfan2012]

No thunder or lighting here eather just a little wind at the on set and moderate rain over all pretty weak those the cloud motion was pretty neat.

[Phil]

Yeah, moderate rain with a gust to 37mph. Just not enough CAPE for much action today.

 

Another 20 days and we're basically be out of stratiform rain season into convective season. At least in terms of severe season, this crap pattern out of the way in April/May is a good thing. Question is, when the pattern flips, does it flip to something overly hot/dry like in 2011, or do take the 2010/2012 route?

[Phil]

Nasty squall blew through here. Winds over 40mph and small hail.

 

I've never seen the sky this angry in May before.

 

 

 

 

[weatherfan2012]

Nice pictures phil that line completely fell apart before going over 95 so only left with one lone cell in southern Maryland now.

[Phil]

Screw this. Too d**n cold for mid-May.

 

Already 47/38 as of 130AM, despite downsloping winds sustained at 13mph, gusting to 34mph. Wind chill is in the upper 30s/low 40s.

[Phil]

This dryness is starting to concern me somewhat. I've only had 0.19" of precipitation this month, and it's already the 20th.

I have to bump-troll myself here. Really wish I hadn't opened my proverbial mouth on this one.

[Phil]

Looks like 1-3" of snow has fallen in the WV/MD mountains:

 

[Andie]

Great clouds you have there Phil.

 

We're anticipating some heavy weather tomorrow afternoon. Flooding downpours, hail, tornado warnings.

Typical Texas spring weather. I recall a lot of this in the late 50's early 60's. Spent time in a closet with hail hammering the roof as a kid. Terrifying actually. I recall golf and softball sized hail as a kid and my first tornado that bounced over the house.

Those are quite an experience. They actually do roar and the pressure drops like a stone. Your body reacts to the pressure in a strange way. For me I get this feeling of things crawling over my skin and dizzy. Not unlike the other tunnel we spoke of together, Phil.

 

Here's the outlook for tomorrow.

 

 

[weatherfan2012]

Looks like 1-3" of snow has fallen in the WV/MD mountains:

that crazy and in December we couldn't even by winter like temperatures.

[Phil]

that crazy and in December we couldn't even by winter like temperatures.

Yeah, figures.

 

Amazing how we can go from mid 80s in early March, to low 50s in mid May, then right into upper 90s in late June. This climate is schizophrenic.

[Phil]

So far, this is the second coldest May on record here. If BWI sees one more high below 60 degrees, they'll set the all-time monthly record for sub-60 highs. We're definitely going the 1973/1983/1988/1995 route this year, as opposed to the 1998/2007/2010 route.

 

This general theme doesn't look to change over the next 7 days, either. Omega block up north, cutoff low spinning along the coast.

[Andie]

And yet there's this,.........there's still all this GW reporting.

 

https://weather.com/news/climate/news/record-warmest-april-earth-2016

 

 

“Every month from October 2015-April 2016 has now had a departure

of 1 degree Celsius or greater above the 1951-1980 average used by NASA.

The departure from average in a single month had never exceeded

1 degree Celsius prior to October dating back to 1880.”

- NASA/GISS, May 15, 2016

 

Just for the record Texas is having a very cool and long spring. Very wet spring.

[weatherfan2012]

So far, this is the second coldest May on record here. If BWI sees one more high below 60 degrees, they'll set the all-time monthly record for sub-60 highs. We're definitely going the 1973/1983/1988/1995 route this year, as opposed to the 1998/2007/2010 route.

This general theme doesn't look to change over the next 7 days, either. Omega block up north, cutoff low spinning along the coast.

that may well be this weekend with the late spring nor easter hey if we are going to suck mines well do it in a historic since lol

[Phil]

Coldest monthly maximum temperature anomalies in the country are literally centered over the Washington DC/Philadelphia Corridor.

 

Over 10F below normal in places now. This time last year, we'd already had several days in the low-90s.

 

[Phil]

Ski resorts are still open/reopening for a time. Haha.

 

http://www.killington.com/site/mountain/conditions/dor

[Andie]

We had a high of 62* today. May 18th ....in Texas.

 

Heavy overcast sky, downright dark outside all day. Tomorrow brings lots of rain/storms.

 

Then starting Sunday a week of 20 to 50% chances but temps rise to 80*.

 

Really a departure Spring. So, is summer going to cook Texas? .....Anyone?

[Phil]

Mount Washinton, NH observed winds up to 110mph on Monday and blinding snowfall: http://mashable.com/2016/05/17/windy-mount-washington-observers/#8Qp9tRGxHGqS

[Phil]

We had a high of 62* today. May 18th ....in Texas.

 

Heavy overcast sky, downright dark outside all day. Tomorrow brings lots of rain/storms.

 

Then starting Sunday a week of 20 to 50% chances but temps rise to 80*.

 

Really a departure Spring. So, is summer going to cook Texas? .....Anyone?

Hard to find analogs that don't go nuclear in July/August. Most have tolerable Junes, though.

[Phil]

Capital Weather Gang just released their summer forecast. They're usually very good: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/05/17/d-c-summer-outlook-2016-hotter-than-normal-with-heat-intensifying-each-month/

[Phil]

Found this article from 1994..have to say I lol'ed a bit: http://articles.latimes.com/1994-07-18/local/me-17170_1_summer-heat

[Andie]

Hard to find analogs that don't go nuclear in July/August. Most have tolerable Junes, though.

So, hot as hell is the phrase du jour.

 

Of course we're used to shake and bake down here. Having survived the drought and fire season of 2011 a shorter stint on the shores of Hades will not seem so bad. I'm sure it's hard to know what our Fall will be like, but if we can get some rain back for October and in to Winter we'll make it.

 

If the Niña returns it'll be unpleasant.

 

Found this report showing my area fairing better against the national heatwave for JJA

 

https://weather.com/news/weather/video/summer-outlook-for-2016#/!

[Phil]

Some "much needed" sunshine here. Currently a beautiful 74/50 with scattered cumulus. The pattern progged by the modeling for the week of Memorial Day would be soupy, might get dewpoints into the low 70s.

 

Now 7.87" of rain for the month here. Can we make a run at 10" before the pattern changes?

[Phil]

So, I've been keeping track of the CPC analogs (1950-present) over the past month or so, and have taken note of the analogs that have been repeatedly showing up.

 

Turns out, the top 10 analogs are all in the top-15 hottest summers on record here, and 8/10 are the 8 hottest on record. If that isn't enough to raise an eyebrow, then I don't know what else is.

[Andie]

Tropical season will be interesting for the East Coast. Speaking with a friend in-the-know, he said that sharp transition years mean that there will be a chance for decent development, and this year with warm water everywhere shouldnt make that too hard.

Did he indicate east coast or gulf ? I've read where the gulf could see a good deal of action this year

 

So, I've been keeping track of the CPC analogs (1950-present) over the past month or so, and have taken note of the analogs that have been repeatedly showing up.

Turns out, the top 10 analogs are all in the top-15 hottest summers on record here, and 8/10 are the 8 hottest on record. If that isn't enough to raise an eyebrow, then I don't know what else is.

I think the norther third of the country will see some serious heat this year. From what I've found Texas will be more normal, which means a week of 100* days. No rain. Nothing new there. As long as we don't return to the summer of 2011 with the drought and wildfires, I'm "cool"

[Phil]

I think the norther third of the country will see some serious heat this year. From what I've found Texas will be more normal, which means a week of 100* days. No rain. Nothing new there. As long as we don't return to the summer of 2011 with the drought and wildfires, I'm "cool"

Ugh, I wish I could erase the summer of 2011 from my memory banks. By far the worst ever.

 

Severe weather was lacking, monster heat and humidity, no wind whatsoever. That mid-July heatwave was unforgettable, peaking with a high of 107F with a dewpoint of 85F. That's as bad as it gets here.

 

At least hurricane Irene made things interesting in late August.

[Andie]

I think I may have a normal hot summer here, but what I'm reading and seeing in the NE and PNW looks ugly, hot and dry.

 

My fears are wildfires if you don't get the moisture you need. The 2011 wildfire aspect may be with you. Can the Alberta fires be a precursor to the summer's trials? I hope not. That's some of the ugliest wildfire video I've ever seen. Texas is still recovering its forests after that.

[Phil]

Looks like summer starts in ~2 weeks. Will be like the flip of a switch.

Looks like this was a good call. I think we'll observe our first 90+ day sometime around the Memorial Day weekend.

[Phil]

Weak SBCAPE enough to get convection going under low heights aloft.

 

[Phil]

After this horrible month, I'm actually looking forward to the sticky summer evenings with 3000+ CAPE, lol. I'll probably have to bump troll myself on this come July, but whatever.

 

My favorite part of summer here is lounging out on the deck at night, watching the flashbulb lightning displays, listening to the crickets and cicadas, etc. Makes the heat and humidity worth it, at least for awhile.

[Phil]

Close lightning strike here, could actually hear it slice through the air.

[weatherfan2012]

Interesting to that the storms are coming from the northeast direction instead of south to north or southwest to northeast or west to east and or from the northwest direction likey still being influence by the coaster low of this past weekend dragging it impulses around it.also been some hailers as well in York pa.

[weatherfan2012]

Pretty potent cell crossing over the bay south of Annapolis which is severe warned.

[Andie]

Interesting to that the storms are coming from the northeast direction instead of south to north or southwest to northeast or west to east and or from the northwest direction likey still being influence by the coaster low of this past weekend dragging it impulses around it.also been some hailers as well in York pa.

It is one seriously odd spring.

[Phil]

Will the major hurricane drought break this year? The last storm to produce hurricane conditions in the DC area was Hazel in 1954, (sustained winds ~ 80mph, gusts up to ~110mph). That's a long wait, even by our measly standards.

 

The most recent hurricane landfalls (Isabel, 2003, Irene, 2011, Sandy, 2012) all failed to produce sustained hurricane force winds in the DC area, and none were major hurricanes at landfall. Isabel and Sandy both peaked at 40-50mph sustained, gusting to ~ 75mph. Irene peaked at 35-45mph, gusts were 80-90mph in eastern regions, but peaked around 60-65mph in the DC area. Below is a description of the hurricane drought:

[Phil]

The 00z GFS is awesome sauce in the clown range. Fantastic severe weather pattern.