East/Gulf Coast Weather 2016

[Phil]

Beautiful out there, 83/47 this afternoon. Tomorrow looks like another low humidity day with westerly flow.

 

Starting Thursday, the Bermuda High flexes its muscles a bit, so flow turns more southerly, advection more moisture into the area.

[Phil]

Severe and the tropics are going to be sweet for us.

I agree. I'm already pumped for huge severe in July/August this year. Should be fantastic EML advection out of the Plains by midsummer, looking at the way things are evolving.

 

Hurricane landfall potential is high this year, also.

[Andie]

You can have those hurri's, Phil ! My husband is a FEMA Regional Commander in response teams. He's done 3 major hurricanes on the Gulf coast... Katrina, Rita and Ike. The responders put in horrendous hours, work like mad, and come home sick and exhausted. It saves lives and property but they pay a price. So, no thanks.

 

That said, do you expect any action on the Gulf coastline? Or is it a better gamble for the east coast.

 

Texas is looking at some severe weather Thursday/Friday but it's north of us that's getting those jaw dropping tornados.

We've had so many cloudy and/or drizzly days here in North Texas that spring plants aren't growing. They just sit there. Doesn't bode well for the harvest.

When will that sun and heat hit ?

[Phil]

First 90F+ of the year here, latest I've ever seen it happen. Peaked at 91/52 IMBY, while the two closest stations reached 90/54 and 93/53, respectively.

[Phil]

A bit uncomfortable out there today with some humidity seeping in. Currently 92/65, for a heat index of 94. Some towering cumulus developing to the west under the instability.

 

If only we had an actual forcing mechanism in place.

[Phil]

At least we're kind of "feeling" our way into humidity season, rather than jumping right into 95/75 stuff like we've done in years past. June looks like a tolerable month overall, too, so I think the adjustment process will go smoothly this year, at least for me.

 

Looks like DCA getting river-winded, 88/67 there. Typically they're running warmer than me.

[Phil]

The long range modeling continues to depict an active severe weather pattern starting sometime during the first week of June.

 

I'm really getting excited for the severe potential this summer. Could be our biggest thunderstorm year since 2012 if everything cycles properly.

[Phil]

Monday looks interesting for SEPA. Lots of tropical moisture around and a front near by.

Yeah, though that looks more like a backdoor marine front (low shear/weak SBCAPE) type scenario. Can promote slow moving/training thunderstorms w/ heavy rain, but usually not a severe weather setup.

 

I'm more interested in the extended range, towards early/mid June, where the modeling depicts progressive flow and W/SW flow aloft ahead of troughing to the west.

[Phil]

The clown range 18z GFS looks great moving into mid June, as have the last several GFS runs, in regards to severe potential. Starting to show up on the GEFS/EPS aggregate(s), also, with more progressive flow evident.

 

Hoping this trend continues/improves!

[Andie]

We have a large thunderstorm approaching from the west. This thing is packing 70mph winds, and a lot of lightening. The storm is bowing out at its lead and I'm in the cross hairs on this thing. Nothing anyone can do but ride it out.

 

Had an interesting phenomenon on radar today. While one storm was moving east, the outflow of the storm several hundred miles east began to travel west toward the second storm. When the outflow boundary hit the second storm it suddenly blew up and a severe thunderstorm warning was determined. Crazy to watch it on radar.

[Andie]

Started raining hard at 10 last night and it's still rumbling and raining. More to the south moving in.

The simple truth is no one is complaining. We know that the tap will be shut off soon. Somewhere in June things will shift and the heat will be on. So, let it rain.

 

I think we've gotten an inch or so. Totals are hard to find right now and they vary.

But it's acting more like April than nearly June 1st.

 

Any comments on that ?

[Phil]

Started raining hard at 10 last night and it's still rumbling and raining. More to the south moving in.

The simple truth is no one is complaining. We know that the tap will be shut off soon. Somewhere in June things will shift and the heat will be on. So, let it rain.

 

I think we've gotten an inch or so. Totals are hard to find right now and they vary.

But it's acting more like April than nearly June 1st.

 

Any comments on that ?

A burst of Pacific forcing/+AAM, or other words, residual Niño inertia, is responsible for the cooler/wetter weather over the S/E half of the country this spring/early summer.

 

Enjoy this while it lasts, because I think there's a good chance things flip the other way sometime in July, both down there and up here. I'm watching for the development of that "heat ridge" over the south central US. Classic precursor to a blowtorch here.

 

Regardless, I'm fairly confident there will be a major heatwave over the eastern half of the nation sometime this summer, in July and/or August. Probably the worst since the heatwaves we saw in 2012.

[Phil]

Humidity more noticeable today, currently 92/68 for a HI of 96. Good practice for the eventual arrival of 95/75 afternoons.

[Andie]

Today

High 79 | Low 68 °F

20% Chance of Precip.

Humidity 64%

 

My area had near 60mph winds and est. 2" rain.

 

A little on the humid side, but the afternoon was gorgeous. Rain back in the forecast Monday thru Thurs. I was particularly impressed at the golf course sprinklers at full blast while the storm flooded the 7 th fairway. Nice view of it through the lightning flashes !

I'm going to enjoy this weather while I can. As for torches Texas pretty much gets one every summer so, we're enjoying the rising damp, the lower water bills, and the abundance of green.

 

This wet May-June ( if it materializes) will be similar to, and I'm trying to recall, summers in 1980 and 2000/2001. Those were big rainfall June's as well.

 

So, Phil,...my question is will the Gulf Coast see any hurricanes or is the the east coast's summer to blow ?

[Phil]

Currently 90/65 here, slightly uncomfortable but humidity is low enough to make it tolerable. Third 90+ day of the warm-season so far, which is right around the 10yr average at this point in time.

 

Assuming this year behaves similarly to most Niño to Niña transitions, June should be relatively cool and/or tolerable, with severe season kicking into gear during the second half of June. Following June, a furnace ridge will probably set up in July and/or August, with plenty of thunderstorm action for anyone on the periphery of the ridge.

[Phil]

Amazing severe weather pattern depicted on the long range GEFS/EPS, starting mid-June, with several troughs/vortmax eps sliding down the ridge out west.

 

Vibes of the 1980s in there, AKA the "decade of the microburst". The 1983 microburst at Andrew's AFB remains the strongest ever wet microburst recorded at an airport, with winds clocked at 158mph. The worst of that event actually didn't even hit Andrews AFB, rather struck 2 miles W/NW.

 

Evidence of the June, 14th, 1989 microburst, otherwise known as the "Flag Day Microburst" is still clearly visible in my area. All of the old trees that weren't uprooted were snapped ~ 50ft up, and regrew new crowns from that point.

 

Local review of event, page 5: http://www.cabinjohn.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/2009-06.pdf

[weatherfan2012]

The 80s had some amazing down draft producing thunderstorms 83 I beleave was the storm episode that lighting hit the neighbors tree in the back.wild stuff back then for sure.

[weatherfan2012]

Wish we had a saved radar image from both the 83 and 89 severe thunderstorm events back then.

[Phil]

I've been looking for a radar archive of those years, but I've been unable to find anything before 1991. The topic of the 1989 storm comes up at every neighborhood block party. The stories are incredible, I start foaming at the mouth when we talk about it.

 

The raw power of those gusts apparently smashed windows of several homes, ripped my neighbor's front door off the hinges, stripped away most shutters/siding, and snapped/uprooted a good 80% of the trees in the area at the time. I have some pictures I can post from the old family album.

[Phil]

Like clockwork, 18z GFS goes nuclear in the clown range yet again, with great ensemble agreement. The EPS/GGEM ensembles are crazy looking, as well. All this going occurring right before/during a major transition (globally) in the AAM budget, so there's credence to the idea of an anomalous and dynamic pattern occurring in the middle of June and beyond.

 

This has the vibes of something significant.

[weatherfan2012]

A batch of heavey rains and storms coming up from the south as peace of energey from what was our weak tropical storm bonnie moves across our reagion

[weatherfan2012]

Like clockwork, 18z GFS goes nuclear in the clown range yet again, with great ensemble agreement. The EPS/GGEM ensembles are crazy looking, as well. All this going occurring right before/during a major transition (globally) in the AAM budget, so there's credence to the idea of an anomalous and dynamic pattern occurring in the middle of June and beyond.

This has the vibes of something significant.

going to be interesting to see how this all transpires over the next few weeks.could be some wild times coming up if the data is anywhere close to correct,

[Andie]

Large storm came up from the west last night heavy rain and thunder all night.

Texas is experiencing a lot of flooding and flooding deaths are mounting. The ground is saturated and runoff is instantaneous so creeks rise very fast.

 

I don't want a return of hot and 100% dry, but this is getting very bad here.

 

All we need now is a hurricane.

I'll ask again.

What's the outlook for a Gulf hurricane ?

[Phil]

Phil can correct me on this, but I think the risk for a mid to late summer hurricane is high for the Gulf as well. The sea surface temps are warm in the central Caribbean and there will be little shear when the El Nino drops off. It is a waiting game at this point.

I agree. I suspect long track storms across the Atlantic will be infrequent this year, but close-to-home development in the Gulf/Caribbean/West Atlantic will be much more frequent this year versus the last several seasons.

[Phil]

Baby cell just popped up in DC along the afternoon bay breeze front.

 

Nice afternoon, a little sticky at 80/70 but cool enough for my evening run, assuming it doesn't start pouring randomly (which it always seems to do when I run outside during the warm season).

[weatherfan2012]

We seem to be between an all out wash out in the eastern shore and coaster sections to thunderstorms in the mountains and northwest pa.

[Phil]

Here are some pictures of what that 1989 storm did here, in before/after fashion. All fourteen 100+yr old trees on the left side of the backyard were snapped and/or uprooted:

 

Before:

 

 

After:

 

 

Before:

 

 

After:

 

 

Before:

 

 

After:

 

 

Before:

 

 

After:

 

 

All in all, we lost 17 trees, apparently.

[Phil]

Interesting to see the backdoor boundary right along the Mason-Dixon Line. North of there, dewpoints are in the mid 50s, south of there, they're in the upper 60s.

 

Currently 85/67 here, pretty nice out there actually, a bit on the humid side.

[Phil]

The second week of June looks gorgeous, mid/upper 70s highs and mid/upper 50s dewpoints regionwide. Where on Earth was this weather in May?

 

Looks like some severe weather possible next weekend as well, before things really kick into gear during mid/late June. The "exciting" pattern keeps getting pushed back in the modeling, but the EPS/GEFS are finally starting to hone in.

 

I also suspect we'll transition into a very warm, potentially "hot" pattern in late June. Might observe our first 95+ afternoons.

[Phil]

Dried out quickly this afternoon, currently 88/58 here. Air is noticeably more breathable.

[Andie]

June 1st

 

67*. High today of 80.

95% humidity

Got 1 1/2" rain this afternoon.

Tons of lightning, and thunder.

This is NOT normal.

 

The air is so wet outside you can clap you hands and it'll rain !

Texas is in a serious amount of trouble right now. Much of south Texas is wet or flooded.

Pretty soon were going to need a boat to get the mail !! Enough already.

 

Forecast: rain tomorrow upwards of 3", followed by more rain, with a high possibility of yup,...more rain till Sat.

Remote possibility we'll see the sun by Saturday before sunset if we sacrifice a virgin!....anyone know one ??

 

[Andie]

Okay, so the Brazos River SW of Houston is flooded. Will crest at 54 feet.

 

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/amid-deadly-floods-texas-braces-for-more/

 

Hope they have enough place settings for dinner.

 

[Phil]

Wowzers, the 0z GFS is severe weather porn in the long range.

 

First (potential) legitimate event looks to occur this weekend, though I'm concerned we start firing thunderstorms too early in the morning (cutting down on potential instability during afternoon/evening prime time).

[Phil]

SPC puts us in the 15% for Sunday. Bullish for 5 days out.

[Phil]

Sunday looking very nice! Strong cold front moves through in midst of rapid height falls, speed shear 50kt ML jet/75kt UL jet w/ a 90kt upper maximum over PA. Directional shear is meh so tornado risk is less vs damaging wind potential, as usual.

[Phil]

Yeah..12z GFS (aka goofus) has 4000+ SBCAPE Sunday.

[Phil]

Bay breeze front just blew in here, dewpoint shot up from 64 to 70 in a few minutes. Currently 83/70 and breezy.

 

Front showed up on radar today.

 

[Phil]

Holy moly, might be the best severe weather pattern in a decade on the mid/long range modeling. At least three derecho opportunities on the 18z GFS/GEFS.

 

I'm getting legitimately excited.

[Andie]

Alright! Hurricane news is finally out on the Carribean. It may threaten the east coast but at least the Gulf is showing promise.

 

Tropical system may form in eastern Gulf of Mexico next week

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/tropical-system-may-form-in-northwestern-caribbean-gulf-of-mexico-cuba-florida-bahamas-on-alert/57824908

 

 

[Phil]

How are you identifying the derecho forecasting signatures?

EML advection, speed shear, directional shear, large scale thermal gradient(s), and CAPE among the path of modeled MCS activity. We call it a "ring of fire" pattern, in regards to progressive derechos which evolve out if typical MCS activity in such a pattern (ridge with MCSes riding its periphery). While we don't observe derechos here every year, we do see several severe-caliber MCS events.

 

Serial derechos are more common in the earlier and later portions of the warm season, as opposed to progressive derechos, and ironically the modeling suggests the potential for both exists down the road.

 

It could be argued that what blew through here in April was indeed a serial derecho, given it produced 60-70mph wind gusts from OH/KY to coastal MD/VA with a few 80mph gusts in the mountains.