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Potential Winter Storm 3/23 & 3/24


bud2380

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Mix/ice from Detroit to Chicago at hour 90. Heavy snow up this way into S WI, central MI. 


Low tracks by Jefferson City at 96 hours.


 


1030 High right over it there. 


Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Euro has temps in the mid 30's Wed afternoon when the front stalls and precip breaks out...then they drop considerably as the low quickly phases and tugs down colder air as temps drop into the 20's in NE/IA/N IL/WI/MN.  850's stay below 0C north of IL/WI border and SE IA.  Takes a track from KC/STL thru S IL near Springfield, IL.

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post-7389-0-42181200-1458498643.png

 

Got to give the EURO credit with the big systems this winter, except the November one.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Wow, nuclear snowfall amounts showing up for N IA/S WI...depending on when the heavy defo band comes in either during the day or night will justify the higher snowfall amounts.  Either way, the Euro has temps in the upper 20's for the majority of the snowfall from this storm which will help.

 

This is a sweet looking storm on the Euro showing severe storms wrapping up into a solid cold sector.

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Winds blow off the lake between 30-40 mph Thursday afternoon and night. 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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2-3 Feet!  That's insane...would be a nice storm for the EC let alone for the Midwest/Lakes!.

 

Even if a foot fell over a wide area like that, people would freak!

 

Near blizzard conditions late Thursday, early Friday in MI.

 

Ice accumulations near or over an inch where MI, IN, & OH come together.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Geos will freak if the gfs verifies

 

I might have to come up to your area and play in the snow.  :D

The $64k question is how strong is that high to the northeast and where does the front end up on early Wednesday?

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Well, this would be a nice way to start Spring. I'm not expecting much, if any though.

 

I think you'll see something. 

The EURO is unwavering though. Usually in the 72-84 range it locks in pretty close.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Hey Geo's, try loading the full 12z Euro run with correct ratios and look at that map!  From CO to the Lakes it looks like a glacier...

 

Good Lord!

 
Solid 30" of snow from southwest of Des Moines to the Thumb of MI, peaking at close to 40" over Racine and Milwaukee. 
 
Tom, can you see what the EURO has for the AO and NAO mid week?

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Good Lord!

 
Solid 30" of snow from southwest of Des Moines to the Thumb of MI, peaking at close to 40" over Racine and Milwaukee. 
 
Tom, can you see what the EURO has for the AO and NAO mid week?

 

Both NAO/AO are neutral on the 23rd, then tick positive on the 24th....EPO/PNA holds neutral, however, WPO is solidly negative.

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Both NAO/AO are neutral on the 23rd, then tick positive on the 24th....EPO/PNA holds neutral, however, WPO is solidly negative.

 

Do you think the -WPO is aiding this big storm development?

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Do you think the -WPO is aiding this big storm development?

The storm in itself is a part of the cycling pattern, however, I think the teleconnections can play a role in ultimate storm track.

 

Here are the March WPO/PNA composites:

 

-WPO

 

http://madusweather.com/teleconnection/WPO/WPOneg_03mar.png

 

 

Neutral PNA...

 

http://madusweather.com/teleconnection/PNA/PNAneu_03mar.png

 

 

 

I'll add a neutral EPO also...

 

http://madusweather.com/teleconnection/EPOnew/EPOnew_neu_03mar.png

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The storm in itself is a part of the cycling pattern, however, I think the teleconnections can play a role in ultimate storm track.

 

Here are the March WPO/PNA composites:

 

-WPO

 

 

 

Neutral PNA...

 

 

 

 

I'll add a neutral EPO also...

 

 

Doh! Can't be seen.

 

I get the general idea of how the teleconnections are influencing the system.

 

What if half the snowfall happens based on where the EURO is? Widespread 10-15" amounts are going to cause so much disruption over a large area. Thinking about power outages due to the tree limbs breaking off and from excessive ice in a narrow area. 

 

Last time I saw heavy amounts like this that far south was at the equinox in 2008 where 12-15" amount fell in a narrow band across southern WI, extreme northern IL. But this storm has the snow band much wider. 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Doh! Can't be seen.

 

I get the general idea of how the teleconnections are influencing the system.

 

What if half the snowfall happens based on where the EURO is? Widespread 10-15" amounts are going to cause so much disruption over a large area. Thinking about power outages due to the tree limbs breaking off and from excessive ice in a narrow area. 

 

Last time I saw heavy amounts like this that far south was at the equinox in 2008 where 12-15" amount fell in a narrow band across southern WI, extreme northern IL. But this storm has the snow band much wider. 

I fixed it...you can see that there is enough teleconnection support to have such a wide snow band in late March.  The trend Week 2 is for even more colder conditions with a dislodge of the PV into the northern CONUS according to the GEFS/EPS.

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