April 2016 Observations and Discussion

[gosaints]

Another crappy rainy day here. Had 0.1" of snow and sleet earlier today.

 

EURO is nothing but easterly or northeasterly flow here. No good

Top shelf weather on the way here....

[Hawkeye]

I got lucky and picked up another 1.11" of rain today, with 1" of that coming this morning from a thin line of storms.  I had light thunder in the area for a few hours.  That's two 1" rain events in the last week.

[westMJim]

We are now 1/3^rd way through the month of April 2016. Grand Rapids has recorded at least a trace of snow for the first ten days of this month. With the monthly snow fall total now at 9.4” this will be the snowiest April since 1982 when 12.4” fell. We are also -9.4° and with a mean temp of 34.5° Both the temp and snowfall amounts are more in line with March then April. So yes let’s hope the next 2/3^rd of April can be nice and warm enough to erase the memory of this cold and snowy start. I am more than ready for spring and summer!

[Geos]

Top shelf weather on the way here....

 

Going to be awhile before it breaks out into true warmth here. It'll mainly be in the 40s here this week.

[Tom]

Going to be awhile before it breaks out into true warmth here. It'll mainly be in the 40s here this week.

I think this weekend and the early part of next week will look much better, but then there are signs the -AO/-NAO pattern locks in on both the CFSv2/GFS.  

 

Not a bad 7-day forecast after what you guys have endured...

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Sounds like in this region the pattern is going to flip and give us here in the plains, that are really dry, multiple chances for rain starting Friday through the weekend.  Amazingly today the wind is only blowing 12 mph, but it will ramp up the rest of the week.  One of the windiest springs I can remember around here, but with little moisture to show for it, at least here in Central Nebraska.

[Geos]

Going to be awhile before it breaks out into true warmth here. It'll mainly be in the 40s here this week.

 

At least it's dry for awhile. I'm setting the bar between 50-55° for the weekend right now.

EURO has 40 for here tomorrow.

 

With an East wind it's hard to warm up very much with a lake this cool.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

 

 

Like these colors from the GGEM.  

[NEJeremy]

Yeah this wind has got to stop. You expect strong nw winds after a frontal passage for a day or two, but usually you get a calm day after that even before the winds might kick back up out of the south. So far here though, our lowest max wind speed at the airport has been 20 mph on the 4th. Other than that we've had 25-40 mph winds every frickin day this month! Had a 54 mph gust on the 7th. Today we're at it again with a NW wind gusting to 33 mph last hour. Tomorrow the winds turn back to the south, but guess what, they're going to gust up to 30 mph again.

[Tom]

qpf_acc.conus.png

 

 

Like these colors from the GGEM.  

All models pointing at a soaker for your region.  Should be good for the wheat farmers as they prepare for their growing season.

[gosaints]

Going to be awhile before it breaks out into true warmth here. It'll mainly be in the 40s here this week.

U live in a microclimate

[Geos]

U live in a microclimate

 

Your telling me. 

 

If I'm lucky I'll hit the upper 50s if winds can veer more SE this weekend. 

[CentralNebWeather]

All models pointing at a soaker for your region.  Should be good for the wheat farmers as they prepare for their growing season.

Corn farmers are actually looking at potential planting this week, though I bet it might not be until the end of next week.  Still have had quite a few mornings in the upper 20's the last week.  Those might be behind now, but here we can have frosts and freezes into May in some years.

[Geos]

Going to be a little while before the frosts knock it off here. Chilly today with a stiff east wind - only 39° currently.

 

Rain looking to target Plains.

 

[OKwx2k4]

Glad to see the rains returning.

[CentralNebWeather]

Wow geos those colors look promising. Much needed. Local mets really talking up the moisture. Most significant since blizzard.

[Geos]

Glad to see the rains returning.

 

Oops, forgot the southern Plains.

 

Lot of rain for Andie coming.

[westMJim]

We now have 12 days of April 2016 in the record books and here in Grand Rapids we are now have a mean temp of 35.5° and that is good for -8.8° and that is very close to the average mean temp of 35.6° for March. So far today it’s cloudy and still a very unspring like 37° here at my house. We have a day game here for the local minor league baseball team so its time for me to get bundled up and go in. So far in this home stand we played on Saturday with snow on the ground and temps in the low 30’s were snowed out on Sunday.  Played on Monday night with temps in the low 30’s with a 20 MPH wind and played last night with a temp in the mid 30’s at game time that fell to 32 by the end of the game.

[Tom]

Chi-town peeps must be loving this 7-day forecast...

 

[Tom]

I find the trends on the CFSv2 really interesting in the arctic regions come Sept/Oct.  Look how frigid the temps may be later this year...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbT2mMonInd5.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbT2mMonInd6.gif

[jaster220]

I find the trends on the CFSv2 really interesting in the arctic regions come Sept/Oct.  Look how frigid the temps may be later this year...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbT2mMonInd5.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbT2mMonInd6.gif

 

Yikes when that comes south in winter....

[Hawkeye]

Recent model runs are suggesting much cooler for Chicago on Monday as a front comes down from the north.  It quickly rebounds by midweek, however.

[Geos]

Recent model runs are suggesting much cooler for Chicago on Monday as a front comes down from the north.  It quickly rebounds by midweek, however.

 

Not another cool down! Definitely won't be planting anything early.

It's cool enough out there today with all the clouds.

 

That'll be a cold day.

 

[gosaints]

Not another cool down! Definitely won't be planting anything early.

It's cool enough out there today with all the clouds.

 

That'll be a cold day.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016041312/gfs_T2m_ncus_22.png

Top shelf stuff for the foreseable future.  Month could fight back above average

[Geos]

Top shelf stuff for the foreseable future.  Month could fight back above average

 

I could see your area fighting to above average. Too far of a hole dug around here to get above average.

 

Sun today, 47 currently.

[jcwxguy]

hope we get plenty of moisture soon, getting really dry here

[CentralNebWeather]

 

 

The potential rainfall with this upcoming event is crazy.  Very out of the ordinary for this region but needed badly.  It is being talked up alot and the latest GFS from Friday evening through next Wednesday is impressive.  It has our area of Central Nebraska at close to 6 inches.  That would be insane totals.

[gosaints]

I could see your area fighting to above average. Too far of a hole dug around here to get above average.

 

Sun today, 47 currently.

keep the streak alive make it 8 months in a row

[Geos]

52° here today a 9° improvement over yesterday.

 

Nebraska and Kansas get ready for the rains.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Fortunately it is so dry here they are really not talking about flooding. Will come in waves over 4 days as the storm stalls or actually stops due to omega block according to local mets.

[gosaints]

Today will be bigger positive departure than any negative departure we have had this month.  next 7 days will bring the month above average

[CentralNebWeather]

 

 

Rain, rain, rain.  Yes please.  

[Tom]

Ensemble support that Week 2 could be torching for a large area of the central CONUS.  A string of 80's is on the table near the Lakes region.  Hello Summer preview???

 

CFSv2 now agrees...

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images1/wk1.wk2_20160414.NAsfcT.gif

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images1/wk3.wk4_20160414.NAsfcT.gif

[NEJeremy]

april 15.png

 

 

Rain, rain, rain.  Yes please.  

and we're in the less than .1" here in Omaha. I know this is only through Monday am, but I'm actually a little worried this rain won't ever make it this far or by the time it does it will be very light rain. 

 

It has been beautiful here this week, FINALLY! temps well into the 70s with a nice south breeze and warm enough at nights to leave the bedroom window open.

Yesterday was actually pretty interesting in the morning. We had smoke come up from the controlled burn fires near the KS/NE border right before sunrise. The airport reported smoke for it's hourly observations for several hours and visibility down to 2 miles. What was even more crazy was the air quality index went all the way to 185, and all of the schools kept kids indoors all day and there were no evening activities for schools either. The smoke actually cleared though by early afternoon.

[Tom]

Boy, the CO Rockies have had an epic ski season and it continues to deliver...folks might be skiing out there till end of May or even June!

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/bou/WxStory/FileL.png?rand=13621

[Geos]

Boy, the CO Rockies have had an epic ski season and it continues to deliver...folks might be skiing out there till end of May or even June!

 

 

Yeah I've been hearing some resorts will be likely be open until Memorial Day weekend.

 

Moisture trains right over the Plains.

 

[gosaints]

HOT

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016041512/ecmwf_T850_us_10.png

[OKwx2k4]

HOT

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016041512/ecmwf_T850_us_10.png

It's too early for this crap. :-(

[Geos]

It's too early for this crap. :-(

 

I agree.

 

18z has a cut off/slow moving low from the 19-22nd. Little cooler way down the road towards May 1st.

[CentralNebWeather]

There are going to be some impressive rainfall totals in central and western Nebraska. Already hearing of reports over 3 inches and this storm will last another 2 days at least. I have just about 1 inch in my guage from this mornings rain and it is pouring right now