April 2016 Observations and Discussion

[Hawkeye]

Through ten days, the models are suggesting a general nw/wnw flow pattern.  Especially here to the west of the lakes, we should get occasional warm intrusions from the west ahead of any clipper systems.  It's certainly a dry pattern.

[Tom]

12z Euro still showing back to back day time highs in the upper 20's on the 3rd/4th in Wisco/Mi region.  Very sharp temp gradient being advertised this Sunday...Winter on one side of the arctic front and near Summer like conditions on the other side.

[Tom]

Overnight Euro run keeps it below normal through the extended overall near the Lakes/Midwest region.  A couple chances of more snowfall along with the colder air moving in.  

 

Of note, GFS/EURO night and day with the AO/NAO forecast.  Euro has a -AO/NAO developing by the 3rd and holding while the GFS wants to head the other direction.  

 

00z EPS delays the warming through Day 10 east of the Plains states.

[Tom]

All the models seem to be showing a decent Clipper for next Monday, but a bit north to affect most of our sub forum near the Lakes.  GGEM slams N WI/N MI with warning snows.

[gosaints]

All the models seem to be showing a decent Clipper for next Monday, but a bit north to affect most of our sub forum near the Lakes.  GGEM slams N WI/N MI with warning snows.

Climatology

[Geos]

Haven't looked at any models in the last 24 hours. 

 

I saw on the GFS it is showing some snow here for Friday.

 

 

[Geos]

EURO changed it's tune for next week it looks like.

Regionwide snowfall through day 10.

 

 

 

[gosaints]

EURO changed it's tune for next week it looks like.

Regionwide snowfall through day 10.

 

EURO_10daysnowfall033016.jpg

Dont tell me you are gonna watch every model run to track an inch

[Geos]

Dont tell me you are gonna watch every model run to track an inch

 

No I'm not. I don't have time this week to do it.

I'm most interested in the weekend weather as of now. 

[gosaints]

Solid thunderstorm. Cloud to ground strikes

[gosaints]

No I'm not. I don't have time this week to do it.

I'm most interested in the weekend weather as of now. 

Saturday a little chilly.  Sunday has a good chance of being above normal here

[Tom]

Latest CFSv2 forecast for April...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20160331.201604.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaPrec.20160331.201604.gif

[Niko]

April will start off chilly and getting colder with a chance for snow over the weekend and into early next week. Not too thrilled about that. Hopefully, it warms up fast and remains that way until end of summer. Who the heck wants snow in April. 

[Geos]

April will start off chilly and getting colder with a chance for snow over the weekend and into early next week. Not too thrilled about that. Hopefully, it warms up fast and remains that way until end of summer. Who the heck wants snow in April. 

 

Only good for snow now is that it acts to add nitrogen to the grass and upper levels of the soil.

It releases it slowly as opposed to nitrogen in rain that percolates too quickly in the sub surface layers.

[Tom]

GFS/EURO showing a blocking pattern setting up by Day 7.  The Plains have bouts of Summer like temps through the next 10 days, meanwhile, east of there Spring is delayed.

[Geos]

GFS/EURO showing a blocking pattern setting up by Day 7.  The Plains have bouts of Summer like temps through the next 10 days, meanwhile, east of there Spring is delayed.

 

I noticed 2 maybe 3 days of low 50s on the EURO here and that was it.

 

18z GFS was no prize either.

[westMJim]

While it should not be a major issue here in west Michigan it is none the less a issue (and I am sure elsewhere) that vegetation is ahead of schedule and with the upcoming cold and snow what if any effects it will have on the local fruit crop. Not to mention minor league baseball games that open up next week (as I work for the local minor league team cold and snow is always a concern for me LOL)

[Geos]

While it should not be a major issue here in west Michigan it is none the less a issue (and I am sure elsewhere) that vegetation is ahead of schedule and with the upcoming cold and snow what if any effects it will have on the local fruit crop. Not to mention minor league baseball games that open up next week (as I work for the local minor league team cold and snow is always a concern for me LOL)

 

How ahead are you?

My grass is mostly green and the Daffodils are close to popping open, but that's it in terms of green plants.

[Geos]

Doh! 12z GFS

 

 

12z GFS is pretty awful until the 14th or 15th. Has a snow system next Sunday-Monday for Nebraska.

[westMJim]

How ahead are you?

My grass is mostly green and the Daffodils are close to popping open, but that's it in terms of green plants.

Here the Daffodils are in bloom the Tulips are not out yet but are several weeks ahead. And yes the grass is not only green its growing. There are some fruit trees that have buds on them so I think the low 20's would be the critical temp 

[Geos]

Here the Daffodils are in bloom the Tulips are not out yet but are several weeks ahead. And yes the grass is not only green its growing. There are some fruit trees that have buds on them so I think the low 20's would be the critical temp 

 

EURO has your area getting down to the mid 20s Saturday and Sunday night. Low 20s just to the north of Grand Rapids. Ouch Monday night it does have the 20° line almost to your town.

[Tom]

Impressive cold showing up on the Euro near the Lakes and impressive summer like temps in the Plains over the next 10 days.  Nation divided to say the least and more late season snowfall trying to show up in the Plains after the warmth!  Talk about a yo-yo extreme pattern.  Who knows if the Plains snows develops after Day 7 though.  Prob the last of Spring snows after the 15th of the month.

 

Euro showing -AO/NAO/EPO in tandem around the 9th so it might support enough cold air for wintry precip.

[Tom]

Solar trends continue on the decline and about to reach new lows over the last 12 months.

 

 

http://www.solen.info/solar/images/solar.png

[Money]

18z GFS:

 

http://nmaps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016040118/384/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Geos]

Looking like a dusting of snow tomorrow morning.

 

 

[Hawkeye]

Wind is gusting well over 50 mph across northeast Iowa this morning.  The chill is in the mid 20s.  Wednesday looks like another very windy day.

[Geos]

1.0" of snow down and near freezing right now.

[Money]

Well over 3 here

[Geos]

This was shortly after it stopped snowing. It's a windy day as well. Wind chills in well into the 20s. Snowing like crazy at the moment.

 

[Geos]

White out in progress right now.

 

Before it really got going. Have a short video to upload later. I couldn't see the house in this picture and now everything is coated with a half inch of snow.

 

[Tom]

This Clipper on radar looks pretty nice.  Jaster/WestJim should be getting blasted right about now.  Seems like a pretty darn potent clipper you guys are experiencing out there today!  Been looking on social media and WI got clipped pretty good.

 

00z Euro drops the hammer in the extended back into the Plains by Day 10!  What a wild pattern if that comes into fruition.  Both GFS/EURO showing something big around the 10th-12.

 

The blocking and -EPO look setting up by the 9th is definitely something interesting in terms of weather around here in the west/southwest.  We will finally be able to see storms roll on through the ridge that has been so dominant out west.  Only thing that stinks about that is, we may have to delay our trip to Cali for the following weekend.  Doh!  We are planning to make some stops in So Cal/Death Valley.  One of these weekends in April we also want to check out Bryce Canyon National Park in Utah.

[Money]

No more snow

[Tom]

No more snow

Euro Control hammers your area in the extended and some of the EPS members catching on to it.  I think after the 15th is when this winter-like pattern exits and Spring can start making a comeback.

 

CFSv2 and GEFS/EPS starting to see the ridge popping mid month (ish)...

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images1/wk3.wk4_20160401.NAsfcT.gif

[Geos]

The temperature drop was so quick here when the squall hit. I bet it was about 5° in  2 minutes here. Now sitting at 30° with another half inch of snow on the ground.

 

The current scene outside.

 

[Geos]

Convective look

 

 

Back to heavy snow again.

[Geos]

1.6" of snow so far. Reached normal snowfall for the season now. Anything more is bonus snow, imo.

[Geos]

Grand Rapids right now.

 

[Geos]

Snowing again.

 

That is a cool looking radar shot.

 

[Tom]

This thing looks like a convective lil beast of a Clipper...Climo???  You can argue both ways.

Whoever is underneath this Clipper is seeing some insane snowfall rates.  Prob the best of the season in most parts.

 

Here is a shot from my sister's back yard in Des Plaines.

[indianajohn]

Wow it is coming down pretty good in Hobart.......Visibility right now is pretty bad.