April 2016 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

There are going to be some impressive rainfall totals in central and western Nebraska. Already hearing of reports over 3 inches and this storm will last another 2 days at least. I have just about 1 inch in my guage from this mornings rain and it is pouring right now

That moisture feed right over your region is impressive.  Just a few hundred miles away from you it's pouring snow near the front range!  Gotta love Spring storm systems.

[CentralNebWeather]

You are right Tom. Our airport just reported 1.75 inches so I will need to check the guage. This moisture train is nearly stationary. We love snow in the Rockies of Colorado and Wyoming as snow melt will flow down the republican and platte rivers to fill lakes and reservoirs. This rain will also recharge the ogallala aquifer. I see nothing but positives.

[Geos]

Very nice day here. About 61° at home. 

Was at the lakefront about an hour ago and it was only 53° down there. Wall to wall sunshine though.

[CentralNebWeather]

My guage is right at 2 inches. Radar estimates are 2-2.5 and 30 miles south radar estimates are 4-5 inches. It just continues to pour. I am in an area predicted to get 4-6 inches during the entire event that has at least 48 more hours to go. Local mets still saying Sunday will be the heaviest rains. Might top 6 or more when all is said and done.

[CentralNebWeather]

Radar estimates of 3 inches. My guage says 2:60 still pouring down

[jcwxguy]

rain needs to shift east to here

[CentralNebWeather]

It has basically hit a wall west of grand island and Hastings. My wife drove home from Lincoln and didn't turn on her wipers until wood river

[Geos]

Radar estimates of 3 inches. My guage says 2:60 still pouring down

 

wow you're getting slammed there.

 

65° here today and not a cloud in the sky.

[CentralNebWeather]

Rain until Tuesday morning. It is supposed to get heavier tomorrow. My guage is over 3 inches already. We are in a flood watch but don't see lots of issues in my region since we aren't near a river and we are very flat. Most has been soaking in as we have been so dry the last 2 months. It also hasn't been torrential in nature which cuts down on flood concerns in my area.

[Tom]

CFSv2 has been very consistent bringing above normal precip over the next 4 weeks right into the bread basket of the nation and southern Plains.

 

Week 1...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2016041706/cfs-avg_apcpna7d_wus_1.png

Week 2...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2016041706/cfs-avg_apcpna7d_wus_2.png

 

Week 3...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2016041706/cfs-avg_apcpna7d_wus_3.png

 

Week 4...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2016041706/cfs-avg_apcpna7d_wus_4.png

[CentralNebWeather]

My guage is at 3.75 inches. Farmer at church this morning said over 4 inches 5 miles north of town. Airport report said 5.19 east of town, might be a little high imo. Forecast says 1-2 more inches through tomorrow then more rain Tuesday- Thursday. Amazingly very few puddles or standing water, most soaked in. As the farmer from church said, "multi million dollar rain"

[Geos]

In the mid 60s again, with a lake breeze - so that will be probably be it for a temperature rise.

Tomorrow looks like it could make a run at 70°.

[Tom]

In the mid 60s again, with a lake breeze - so that will be probably be it for a temperature rise.

Tomorrow looks like it could make a run at 70°.

70's must feel real nice back home after that cold start to April.  Should be a very nice stretch of warm weather for the foreseeable future.

[Geos]

70's must feel real nice back home after that cold start to April.  Should be a very nice stretch of warm weather for the foreseeable future.

 

Well one more day of true warmth tomorrow, then it looks cool and showery the rest of the week. O well, it's April!

[gosaints]

Well one more day of true warmth tomorrow, then it looks cool and showery the rest of the week. O well, it's April!

April will bump above normal here tomorrow

[CentralNebWeather]

My guage is at 4.40 and still raining. Might go over 5.0 by morning. The rain that keeps coming.

[Geos]

April will bump above normal here tomorrow

 

Wow, lot different here. Still around -5° for the month.

70° forecast tomorrow.

Tuesday forecast to be in the low 50s with rain.

 

Just looked a the EURO has high in the 40s again coming and shifts the ridge farther west than the GFS.

[Geos]

My guage is at 4.40 and still raining. Might go over 5.0 by morning. The rain that keeps coming.

 

HRRR for the next 15 hours.

[OKwx2k4]

Definitely looking forward to the rains down here that are forecast over the next few days.

[CentralNebWeather]

Rain has stopped here for the time being.  My final guage reading this morning was 4.75 inches though I have heard of many reports in the county of over 5 inches.  Initial forecasts were 4-6 inches so they were right on.  Rain yesterday wasn't as heavy as predicted so that is why totals didn't go crazy over 6 inches.

[Tom]

EPS/CFSv2 starting to trend very wet and with below normal temps Week 1-2.  We may be entering into an active pattern and keeping those nice above normal temps at bay later this month into May.

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images1/wk1.wk2_20160417.NAsfcT.gif

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images1/wk1.wk2_20160417.NA.gif

 

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images1/wk3.wk4_20160417.NAsfcT.gif

[CentralNebWeather]

I saw JB on his Saturday Summary mention how wet the Central US was going to be in the next month or so.  That would cause problems here if farmers were not able to get into fields if we didn't have sustained drying in between rains.  Might be able to do some planting later this week but then the rains return.

[Geos]

Hopefully it doesn't dry out too much. Looking like a showery week here starting tomorrow.

 

Should take a look at this Houston radar loop. The rain is just sitting over the same areas dumping like a hurricane or tropical storm.

 

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=HGX-N0Q-1-12

[Geos]

There's some crappy weather on the EURO starting on Day 6-10. Ok, for the Plains south of Nebraska and Ohio Valley, but here in the Great Lakes 40s and even a stripe of snow from central WI to central MI.

[Tom]

There's some crappy weather on the EURO starting on Day 6-10. Ok, for the Plains south of Nebraska and Ohio Valley, but here in the Great Lakes 40s and even a stripe of snow from central WI to central MI.

Yup, models are def trending cooler Day 5-6 through Day 10 near the Lakes/Midwest.  Picking up on the -NAO/AO tandem. 

[westMJim]

The official reading is now up to 82 at GRR. Here at my house I am now at 83° either way this is the warmest its been on April 18^th since 2004 as Grand Rapids reached 86 on this date in both 2004, 2002 and 1977 for a perfect trifecta at 86° I don’t have the time to look at every year but it looks like todays current 82 would fall just behind the three years at 86° and what looks like two years at 84° (1914 and 1896) so all in all not too shabby

[NEJeremy]

It looks like just what I was worried about would happen with this system, did happen. We have only received about .40" of rain at my house and it's all done now. It took the rain 3 days to get here from western/central Nebraska and of course by the time it did, it didn't last very long and was pretty weak. Hopefully we'll get some more on Wednesday as rain is likely. Before this rain fell, we were over 2" below normal for moisture the last couple of months.

[Money]

I hate WI weather

[Geos]

73° here today - even with a east wind. Big wind shift taking place 80 miles north of here now.

[gabel23]

It looks like just what I was worried about would happen with this system, did happen. We have only received about .40" of rain at my house and it's all done now. It took the rain 3 days to get here from western/central Nebraska and of course by the time it did, it didn't last very long and was pretty weak. Hopefully we'll get some more on Wednesday as rain is likely. Before this rain fell, we were over 2" below normal for moisture the last couple of months.

I thought it was gonna stop at highway 281 but it ended up reaching me. I had 1.7", it looks like areas west of highway 77 fared the best. I expect a wet spring.......might be tough to get my garden in.

[Geos]

Mild air exiting for the time being. NE flow just took hold.

 

Thursday looks pretty nice right now.

[gabel23]

Hope this pans out for those that missed out on the rain the other day. I will gladly add to my totals; hard to believe this is the same storm system that has been in our area since Saturday! 

[NEJeremy]

Yeah it looks pretty good for tomorrow. The forecast models have a nice deformation band hanging over us all the way though tomorrow night

 

Hope this pans out for those that missed out on the rain the other day. I will gladly add to my totals; hard to believe this is the same storm system that has been in our area since Saturday!

[NEJeremy]

it looks like most of town and eastern Nebraska has already received 1.5-2" of rain since it started this morning. Very steady to at times heavy rain. Should catch up back up to normal for the year!

[Geos]

Looks like you guys will be out of the drought conditions on tomorrow's update.

Not that you were very far behind in Nebraska.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Looks like you guys will be out of the drought conditions on tomorrow's update.

Not that you were very far behind in Nebraska.

 

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/pngs/20160412/20160412_high_plains_none.png

Good riddance.  Way to early to see maps like that.  Sounds like more chances next week.  With last night's rain I am over 5.5 inches since Saturday and many around here over 6 inches.  Amazing what 1 storm can do.

[NEJeremy]

received 1.93" of rain from today's rainfall. should get a little more tonight when the defo band moves back south

[Tom]

I arrived at Bryce Canyon, Utah yesterday and did some hiking inside the national park today, which, coincidentally is celebrating 100 years!

 

All I have to say is...God's country...the trail we went on (Sunrise and Sunset Point) are known as the most beautiful 3 mile trail in the world. People from all over are here including east Asia and Europe. It felt like we were in a different country! Hands down, Top 3 best hike I ever did.

 

I'll post some pics later on...

[james1976]

I arrived at Bryce Canyon, Utah yesterday and did some hiking inside the national park today, which, coincidentally is celebrating 100 years!

 

All I have to say is...God's country...the trail we went on (Sunrise and Sunset Point) are known as the most beautiful 3 mile trail in the world. People from all over are here including east Asia and Europe. It felt like we were in a different country! Hands down, Top 3 best hike I ever did.

 

I'll post some pics later on...

I was there when I was a kid! Its beautiful!

[hlcater]

Models showing a really nice svr. Outbreak on day 6 for OK and KS. SPC buying it too.