2016-17 La Nina Watch/Discussion

[Tom]

SCRIPPS updated ENSO forecast...I remember what seems long ago, the model had a super Nina.  Now its more back to reality.  Here are the latest forecasted anomalies...

 

OND 2016 -1.14

NDJ 2016/2017 -1.17

DJF 2016/2017 -1.16

JFM 2017 -1.12

 

 

http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/fcst_gifs/fcst_made_2016-10_for_2016-12.jpg

[jaster220]

SCRIPPS updated ENSO forecast...I remember what seems long ago, the model had a super Nina.  Now its more back to reality.  Here are the latest forecasted anomalies...

 

OND 2016 -1.14

NDJ 2016/2017 -1.17

DJF 2016/2017 -1.16

JFM 2017 -1.12

 

 

http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/fcst_gifs/fcst_made_2016-10_for_2016-12.jpg

 

And Scripps you said tends to over-do things a bit, so those would most likely verify less than -1.0 correct?

[Tom]

And Scripps you said tends to over-do things a bit, so those would most likely verify less than -1.0 correct?

You'd think that would be the case.  Skeptical about it reaching -1.5C.  On the other hand, recent runs on the CFSv2 are showing La Nina conditions during winter.

 

Here is the recent run (follow the blue lines)...down to -1.5C in January...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif

[jaster220]

You'd think that would be the case.  Skeptical about it reaching -1.5C.  On the other hand, recent runs on the CFSv2 are showing La Nina conditions during winter.

 

Here is the recent run (follow the blue lines)...down to -1.5C in January...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif

 

Hmm...goes down briefly then rises. Time spent south of -1.0 looks slight. Also, is there any lag time on the practical wx effects?

[Tom]

Hmm...goes down briefly then rises. Time spent south of -1.0 looks slight. Also, is there any lag time on the practical wx effects?

I'm not sure if there is a time lag, but I know this will effect the Pacific jet.  Might be a reason why the CFSv2 and NOAA have a wet signal for our region.  Here is the DJF Precip run...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usPrecSeaInd3.gif

 

 

 

JFM...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usPrecSeaInd4.gif

[OKwx2k4]

I'm not sure if there is a time lag, but I know this will effect the Pacific jet. Might be a reason why the CFSv2 and NOAA have a wet signal for our region. Here is the DJF Precip run...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usPrecSeaInd3.gif

 

 

 

JFM...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usPrecSeaInd4.gif

That's exactly the precip pattern I want to see for DJF.

[Niko]

Ditto to that!

[Tom]

I have noticed this week's CPC ENSO update is showing more subsurface cooling near the central Pacific...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

Cooler waters are starting to stretch basin wide but mainly focusing in on a modiki La Nina-like threshold...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

[Tom]

Over the last week, ENSO regions 4, 3.4 and 3 have been experiencing weak Nina conditions.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/ssta_c.gif

 

 

Cold subsurface anomalies are not going anywhere and steadfast in the central Pacific.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

 

 

My, have we come a long way from last year about this time!

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/ssttlon5_c.gif

[Tom]

Here is the updated POAMA forecast and it confirms a weak La Nina in place through mid January...

 

 

[Tom]

La Nina-like conditions should ramp up later this week and continue in the extended...

 

 

[Tom]

Well, well, well...hold the fort!  CPC has re-issued a La Nina Watch and gives it a 70% chance of verifying for the Autumn/Winter months.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

[jaster220]

Well, well, well...hold the fort!  CPC has re-issued a La Nina Watch and gives it a 70% chance of verifying for the Autumn/Winter months.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

 

Still would be more west based, eh?

[Niko]

Lets hope for the best.

[Tom]

Over the last couple weeks, there has been some building of cooler subsurface waters in the central Pacific...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

Weak La Nina conditions still prevail...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png

 

 

 

The coolest of waters still taking on a modiki look, near 160W - 140W...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstaanim.gif

[Niko]

Hello La Nina and weak PV.

[Niko]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

[Tom]

Say farewell to the La Nina...ENSO 3.4 region has bounced into positive territory...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png

 

 

Nearly all the equatorial region is near neutral to positive...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

[Money]

What does this mean for the rest of winter?

[Tom]

What does this mean for the rest of winter?

I personally believe this is a temporary rise in SST's.  Don't expect it to climb much farther.  There isn't to much warmer sub surface waters that would totally overwhelm the overall weather pattern.  La Nada conditions actually are very favorable for our region anyway so I would expect it to bode well for us.  Moreover, the LRC pattern is set and it looks pretty active for us with volatile temps.

[Niko]

I personally believe this is a temporary rise in SST's.  Don't expect it to climb much farther.  There isn't to much warmer sub surface waters that would totally overwhelm the overall weather pattern.  La Nada conditions actually are very favorable for our region anyway so I would expect it to bode well for us.  Moreover, the LRC pattern is set and it looks pretty active for us with volatile temps.

Tom, should we still rely on this bolded statement, or have things changed and our winter will be more calmer?! Any ideas?

[Tom]

Tom, should we still rely on this bolded statement, or have things changed and our winter will be more calmer?! Any ideas?

Think about where we have been so far in our region...Above normal snowfall and slightly below normal temps with volatile temp swings.  I'd say that has been a fair assessment, wouldn't ya?  Going forward, we still have 2/3 of Winter left to go and I'm thinking that February could be very cold/active to open up the month (using the LRC as guidance and how December's Week 1 & 2 opened up)...maybe even very late January. Otherwise, I don't see things changing where we have been thus far this Winter.

[jaster220]

Think about where we have been so far in our region...Above normal snowfall and slightly below normal temps with volatile temp swings.  I'd say that has been a fair assessment, wouldn't ya?  Going forward, we still have 2/3 of Winter left to go and I'm thinking that February could be very cold/active to open up the month (using the LRC as guidance and how December's Week 1 & 2 opened up)...maybe even very late January. Otherwise, I don't see things changing where we have been thus far this Winter.

 

Funny cuz I was thinking back to my earlier posts about how this year might resemble 81-82 though everybody was riding 83-84. So far, this has been like a warmer version of 81-82. That year, Detroit (SEMI in general where I was living) had some pretty good snowfalls to start the winter off right before Christmas. Actually, Detroit officially had 7" depth the morning of Christmas - very white by historical standards. I was getting all pumped for winter, but we lost that snow cover and the only thing we got until Jan 30th was LES and maybe a weak weak clipper. Like zero synoptic plow-able snowstorms. Storm tracks were MN/UP/NMI, or on the EC with a big ole dead zone like we see on the maps right now.

 

This year still has to play out, and the cold shots are much more fleeting, but here we are again looking at LES or nothing for perhaps the entire month - uggh. At least 81-82 finished strong, not so sure this one will without some kind of Poleward heat flux or major blocking getting locked in. The Jan 30/31 '82 bliz was the beginning of 6 weeks of solid winter that peaked with 24"+ depths across SMI including Marshall.

[Tom]

Funny cuz I was thinking back to my earlier posts about how this year might resemble 81-82 though everybody was riding 83-84. So far, this has been like a warmer version of 81-82. That year, Detroit (SEMI in general where I was living) had some pretty good snowfalls to start the winter off right before Christmas. Actually, Detroit officially had 7" depth the morning of Christmas - very white by historical standards. I was getting all pumped for winter, but we lost that snow cover and the only thing we got until Jan 30th was LES and maybe a weak weak clipper. Like zero synoptic plow-able snowstorms. Storm tracks were MN/UP/NMI, or on the EC with a big ole dead zone like we see on the maps right now.

 

This year still has to play out, and the cold shots are much more fleeting, but here we are again looking at LES or nothing for perhaps the entire month - uggh. At least 81-82 finished strong, not so sure this one will without some kind of Poleward heat flux or major blocking getting locked in. The Jan 30/31 '82 bliz was the beginning of 6 weeks of solid winter that peaked with 24"+ depths across SMI including Marshall.

I could see some resemble of that season for the remainder of this season.  CFSv2 showing more blocking in February and bringing more widespread cold so we'll see if this is a trend.

[Niko]

Think about where we have been so far in our region...Above normal snowfall and slightly below normal temps with volatile temp swings.  I'd say that has been a fair assessment, wouldn't ya?  Going forward, we still have 2/3 of Winter left to go and I'm thinking that February could be very cold/active to open up the month (using the LRC as guidance and how December's Week 1 & 2 opened up)...maybe even very late January. Otherwise, I don't see things changing where we have been thus far this Winter.

So far, so good. No complaints. Lets see how the remainder of January goes and so forth.

 

You don't sound too confident for February. I am thinking there are a few obstacles that kinda make you a little skeptical for that particular month, otherwise, you would sound more enthusiastic about it. Perhaps, no blocking? or maybe less of a SER (South East Ridge)? I know its impossible ta predict that far out and be correct. Most experts say, No.

[OKwx2k4]

It's looking like in the longer ranges we go into a more -EPO and neutral to weak +PNA which could be better for most of us but I've seen it not be also. That would flatten the southeast ridge a good bit by driving cold straight at it rather than dumping it off into the west and swinging it east. There's still a lot of winter left to go though.

[OKwx2k4]

Tom sounded fairly confident to me if I read it correctly.

[jaster220]

Well, so much for the La Nina or La Nada pattern and all those NOAA seasonal maps showing above normal moisture streaking north thru MI. So far, mission fail for 1st month of MET winter:

 

 

 

With all the cold and snow along the Canada border you can't say this is acting completely like a strong Nino, but the rain & mountain snows that CA normally gets in a Nino are happening now - go figure!

[OKwx2k4]

Well, so much for the La Nina or La Nada pattern and all those NOAA seasonal maps showing above normal moisture streaking north thru MI. So far, mission fail for 1st month of MET winter:

 

20170103 Dec16PNormUS.png

 

With all the cold and snow along the Canada border you can't say this is acting completely like a strong Nino, but the rain & mountain snows that CA normally gets in a Nino are happening now - go figure!

That's a -PNA nina pattern all the way. Shift everything east-southeast and it fits.

[jaster220]

That's a -PNA nina pattern all the way. Shift everything east-southeast and it fits.

 

Pls elaborate, cuz what I posted is that the results so far don't seem to jive with what's been touted to occur with the ENSO state. Are you suggesting that the -PNA aka SER has been over-riding the weak ENSO state?

[OKwx2k4]

Pls elaborate, cuz what I posted is that the results so far don't seem to jive with what's been touted to occur with the ENSO state. Are you suggesting that the -PNA aka SER has been over-riding the weak ENSO state?

Basically yes. It has a lot to do with the stout +QBO as well. Not necessarily the southeast ridge either. The massive block over AK being pulled back so far to the west has had an overriding effect on most of the other variables that we look for as well. As the enso state fades out quickly very soon, (it is right now) we should begin to see the other variables we saw in the early parts of the season influence the pattern more directly.

[Niko]

[OKwx2k4]

What?

[OKwx2k4]

This image describes what I mean better than I can. This is the perfect image of a +QBO overriding influence on the "typical" weak Niña base state. Notice everything pulled west starting with the block in AK.

 

[OKwx2k4]

This is the progression I'm still looking to see though. Whether we see it or not though is anyone's guess. The PV is coming back off of its December spike so here's hoping the next 2 months follow what you see below only pulled to the west a tad.

 

 

Would be a lot of fun for many.