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2016-17 La Nina Watch/Discussion


Tom

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He basically show cases that with every El Nino in the past, there has been an obvious spike in global temps, however, the La Nina that follows also drags down global temps.  Notice the falls have been bigger with the previous two El Nino's.  On top of that, we just experienced a strong El Nino and his theory would suggest a much bigger fall in 2017-19.

 

@ JB's theory

 

Note that the 2 prior spikes he uses were fairly modest by comparison to what we just had, which means an even greater fall will be required to register a "Bigger fall of '17-19". Not sure that's gonna work out for him tbh. Interesting to note that global temps were generally slightly negative in '11 & '12 while we torched, then went slightly positive '13-'15 while we had our super cold winters around the Lakes.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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@ JB's theory

 

Note that the 2 prior spikes he uses were fairly modest by comparison to what we just had, which means an even greater fall will be required to register a "Bigger fall of '17-19". Not sure that's gonna work out for him tbh. Interesting to note that global temps were generally slightly negative in '11 & '12 while we torched, then went slightly positive '13-'15 while we had our super cold winters around the Lakes.

I've read somewhere that a lot of the noise there can be explained by the pdo and also amo tripole patterns coupled or decoupled with enso cycles. 2011 and '12 were also likely part of a multidecadal 'peak' of sorts in winter temperatures over the central CONUS relative to average. If the pattern continues as I believe it will, winters over the US should continue to gradually cool over the next 15 years or so. If you ignore the fight that JB constantly is trying to pick with climate change supporters and the related junk that comes with that stuff, he is very intelligent when it comes to climate and weather cycles.

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I've read somewhere that a lot of the noise there can be explained by the pdo and also amo tripole patterns coupled or decoupled with enso cycles. 2011 and '12 were also likely part of a multidecadal 'peak' of sorts in winter temperatures over the central CONUS relative to average. If the pattern continues as I believe it will, winters over the US should continue to gradually cool over the next 15 years or so. If you ignore the fight that JB constantly is trying to pick with climate change supporters and the related junk that comes with that stuff, he is very intelligent when it comes to climate and weather cycles.

 

I'm a long time follower of his and agree with you 100%. I always like for him to score a win when he goes out on a limb in the extended. But, he's human and has busted hard on occasion with his long range "prognostications" (which are obviously more than that as you said). I don't get into the climate fight either but somebody has to stand up and tell the "rest of the story" on AGW and he's felt the calling I presume or he wouldn't put himself out there like he has for some years now. He's nothing if not bold on LR stuff. May be the boldest well known Met out there tbh. I don't know of anyone else that approaches his audacity or tenacity. Do you?

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Here is the CFSv2 latest SST for the NDJ period...it's trending much warmer along the AK coastline.  Also, a more expansive area of colder waters along the equatorial Pacific.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbSSTSeaInd6.gif

 

 

It's response at 700mb is looking impressive on its latest run.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbz700SeaInd6.gif

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I'm a long time follower of his and agree with you 100%. I always like for him to score a win when he goes out on a limb in the extended. But, he's human and has busted hard on occasion with his long range "prognostications" (which are obviously more than that as you said). I don't get into the climate fight either but somebody has to stand up and tell the "rest of the story" on AGW and he's felt the calling I presume or he wouldn't put himself out there like he has for some years now. He's nothing if not bold on LR stuff. May be the boldest well known Met out there tbh. I don't know of anyone else that approaches his audacity or tenacity. Do you?

I can't think of anyone who gets even close in terms of not being afraid to give an honest effort and risk failing while standing up for what he believes in. I'm the type of person who likes things being put bluntly and directly no matter what so I very much like his style. This isn't the place to argue AGW though and that was what I was trying to refer to in my post also.

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Forecast models were showing the central Pacific cooling quickly a couple months ago.  IMO, they handled it quite well.  Over the last week, a lot more cooler waters are upwelling and will continue through months end.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstaanim.gif

 

Pockets of -4/-5C waters near the South American coastline about to pop up to the surface.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

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Looks like a small pocket of -2/-3C waters has popped up near the ENSO 3 region in the weekly CPC SST anaomoly map above.  Here is a map of where the ENSO regions exist.

 

nino-regions.gif

 

 

Here's a close up to the ENSO 3 region...you can clearly see pockets of very cold waters.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_cpac_1.png

 

 

This will be the first region that will go negative any day now, might even by day's end...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino3.png

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Looks like a small pocket of -2/-3C waters has popped up near the ENSO 3 region in the weekly CPC SST anaomoly map above. Here is a map of where the ENSO regions exist.

 

nino-regions.gif

 

 

Here's a close up to the ENSO 3 region...you can clearly see pockets of very cold waters.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_cpac_1.png

 

 

This will be the first region that will go negative any day now, might even by day's end...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino3.png

Wow. Yeah, it should be negative already probably. Those -2s already at the top are impressive as well. Going really really fast.

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The temperature image of the equatorial waters looks like a sea serpent! lol

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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We don't necessarily have a thread for the Fall Outlook out just yet, but I thought this was an interesting trend in the CFSv2 model.  From about a month ago, the model has increased coverage in the ring of warm waters in the N PAC.  Producing some big implications.  I think the response holds some credibility as other global models, especially the JAMSTEC, are following suit.  Normally, the placement of the warm/cold waters in the N PAC would produce a cold lower 48 in the central CONUS.  Is the model onto something???

 

Here was the SST anomaly from about a month ago.

 

OND...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd1/glbSSTSeaInd5.gif

 

 

NDJ...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd1/glbSSTSeaInd6.gif

 

 

Here is the latest run for the same months respectively.

 

OND...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbSSTSeaInd5.gif

 

NDJ...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbSSTSeaInd6.gif

 

 

Here is the hemispheric 2m Temp response to the N PAC waters.

 

OND...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd1/usT2mSeaInd5.gif

 

NDJ...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd1/usT2mSeaInd6.gif

 

Here is the latest Fall/early Winter run...

 

 

Current OND run...big time flip.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usT2mSeaInd5.gif

 

NDJ

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usT2mSeaInd6.gif

Obviously things will change from here on out.  Its my curiosity that is starting to "tease" me for next Winter! 

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Impressive -4/-5C waters lurking below and growing...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

 

ENSO 3.4 is about to head negative after a brief push positive.  

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png

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ENSO 3.4 has gone negative!  I'm guessing it will accelerate this month.  It will be interesting to see how much colder waters engulf the central Pacific throughout the summer months.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png'

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

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Region 3.4 down to -0.4 or so now. Could be negative (under -0.5) next week.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Latest SCRIPPS ENSO forecast update May 30th...still going with a Strong La Nina and a central based La Nina...

 

Fall...

 

http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/fcst_gifs/fcst_made_2016-06_for_2016-09.jpg

 

Winter...

 

http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/fcst_gifs/fcst_made_2016-06_for_2016-12.jpg

 

 

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CPC's weekly update showing the cold pool of waters just below the surface growing larger.  -4/-5C waters seem to be expanding just below the ENSO 3/3.4 regions.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstaanim.gif

 

ENSO 3 & 3.4 have both gone negative...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/ssta_c.gif

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I was reading some of Phil's comments in the western subforum and he's saying later this month the northeast Pacific will start to cool significantly as an upwelling pattern develops off the West Coast.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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I was reading some of Phil's comments in the western subforum and he's saying later this month the northeast Pacific will start to cool significantly as an upwelling pattern develops off the West Coast.

Wouldn't be surprised, Ensembles are supporting a trough off the west coast of Canada/NW U.S. to develop over the next 2 weeks.  Gone will be the heat wave in that region.

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Wouldn't be surprised, Ensembles are supporting a trough off the west coast of Canada/NW U.S. to develop over the next 2 weeks. Gone will be the heat wave in that region.

Yeah. Sounds to me like you guys up to my northwest and east my be getting ready to torch pretty well for awhile. May be some cooler shots down the road but summer looks to lock in soon.

 

In my opinion the central based nina of the magnitude that is forecast, contrasted with what warmer waters will be left on the west coast by fall/winter would lead me to believe that a sort of ridge could come back over the western US by fall. I'll start playing with analogs in a month or 2 and see what shakes out but it's going to be really difficult for this winter.

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JB seems to be throwing out a hint towards a 1984-85 style winter in his posts today. I'm gonna have to check that one out. SSTs are pretty close.

I saw his post on WxBell indicating the new European seasonal outlook which is only out to December showing the 1984 analog with ridging over Greenland.  The CFSv2 is showing a pretty dominant ridge in that same region also.  I"m sure the very warm waters which are located on the east side of Greenland have a lot to do with it.  Especially, near the Barents Sea where near record low ice has been noted.

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Here's a weekly SST comparison showing how quickly El Nino has collapsed.  From the first week of Feb, to last week...

 

sst.anom.20160131.gif

 

vs...

 

sst.anom.20160529.gif

 

 

Another key point is how warm the waters are near the Bearing Sea.  Alaska just had their warmest Spring on record.

 

The pocket of colder waters south of that are getting colder as well.  This will be an interesting configuration of a warm PDO coupled with a mod/strong La Nina.

 

The map below shows the heat content in the upper 300m of the Tropical Pacific.

 

Untitled.png

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It looks to me at a quick glance like 84-85 had fun and games for the winter from pretty much coast to coast. That would be ok by me.

 

I remember shorts wx at Christmas week, then things ratcheted down into January culminating in that brutal cold wave that set some records. I think overall the snow was a bit above normal across SMI, not sure about the rest of the country as it was harder to follow in the pre-www era

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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There's not a place here for this but Nino induced global temperature spike seems to be dissipating very quickly. Also looks like arctic sea ice won't stay below 2012 for more than a couple more days. Pretty interesting.

Although, Arctic temps have already popped above the freezing mark early on and are above normal currently.  Wonder if the trend continues through the rest of the summer melt season.

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2016.png

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Although, Arctic temps have already popped above the freezing mark early on and are above normal currently.  Wonder if the trend continues through the rest of the summer melt season.

 

 

With the expected pattern change over Alaska and the northern Pacific I would think temp climb would start to level off some and stay relatively close to normal.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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With the expected pattern change over Alaska and the northern Pacific I would think temp climb would start to level off some and stay relatively close to normal.

Yes. I believe that is what is forecast to happen. Should have put that in my post for the sake of clarity.

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Some warming occurred over the last week as we saw the SOI crash which allowed favorable winds over the central Pacific to warm up a bit.  Currently, the SOI has risen much above the avg state which should see a response to more up-welling.  We'll see how that goes.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/ssta_c.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstanim.gif

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The CFSv2 is now running forecasts that go out through the entire Winter of 2016-17.  Some very interesting hemispheric anomalies are being forecasted.  Here are the last 3 weekly runs below...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd1/glbz700SeaInd6.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd2/glbz700SeaInd6.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbz700SeaInd6.gif

 

The last run has lost the Greenland blocking, but overall, the model is seeing a strong indication of a powerhouse ridge in the N PAC, similar to what we saw in 2013-14.  I think the blocking will come back in future runs due to the warming of waters which is occuring to the east of there.

 

SST configuration below screams blocking near Greenland...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbSSTSeaInd6.gif

 

 

Here was last week's run on temps and precip...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd2/usT2mSeaInd6.gif

 

 

 

Coast to coast wet and wild...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd2/usPrecSeaInd6.gif

 

 

Thoughts on all of this???

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Current thoughts are that we still have a long ways to go Tom. I take a lot of history into account when I start examining these things this far out and given multidecadal trends in winter temperatures, coupled with a forming Niña of moderate to strong caliber and +PDO, I would have to say that the CFS is probably pretty close to right at the moment. I would look for it to go colder in the central US as we get closer to the end of summer. This is going to be difficult winter to forecast for a lot of people.

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Again, not really a place for this but with 27k of refreezing ice in the Arctic over the last few days, 2016 will not keep up with 2012 for sea ice loss. This Niño really has seemed to let a lot of people's hopes down for global extremes. Of course the price to be paid for a tightening polar vortex this time of year is the lovely heat advisory that was posted today but doesn't hurt my feelings too badly.

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Current thoughts are that we still have a long ways to go Tom. I take a lot of history into account when I start examining these things this far out and given multidecadal trends in winter temperatures, coupled with a forming Niña of moderate to strong caliber and +PDO, I would have to say that the CFS is probably pretty close to right at the moment. I would look for it to go colder in the central US as we get closer to the end of summer. This is going to be difficult winter to forecast for a lot of people.

 

..now being said about every winter it seems

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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JAMSTEC model update for June still showing a basin wide La Nina setting up by Fall/Winter with a warm PDO in place.

 

Fall...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.SON2016.1jun2016.gif

 

Winter...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.DJF2017.1jun2016.gif

 

 

JAMSTEC still thinking a moderate La Nina is coming which most modeling consensus agrees.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1jun2016.gif

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