Jump to content

April 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


Tyler Mode

Recommended Posts

We certainly have all ends of the spectrum represented here.

Jesse is solidly on the far end of the spectrum... hoping the weather is as crappy as possible always. Wanting a cold, wet summer is evidence of that fact. He has proven to be much farther down the spectrum than Jim who is actually enjoying this April simply because it's been nice. Maybe Jesse will move up the spectrum with age. :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ultimately, you may have shot yourself in the foot with the length of the contest.  Your performance may end up like many of Winterhawks' this season.  Out of the gate strong, but ultimately some glaring weaknesses did them in.  

 

I'm pulling for you, though.  Marine layers can be a tough call.  

 

Indeed they can. ;)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Jesse is solidly on the far end of the spectrum... hoping the weather is a crappy as possible always. Wanting a cold, wet summer is evident of that fact. He has proven to be much farther down the spectrum than Jim who is actually enjoying this April simply because it's been nice. Maybe Jesse will move up the spectrum with age. :)

 

Whatever you want to tell yourself buddy. I like sunny weather as much as the next guy. Just sick of the constant torching. Sunny and cool is the best possible weather, IMO.

 

Sunny & cool > wet/cloudy & cool > sunny & warm > wet/cloudy & warm

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Whatever you want to tell yourself buddy. I like sunny weather as much as the next guy. Just sick of the constant torching. Sunny and cool is the best possible weather, IMO.

 

Sunny & cool > wet/cloudy & cool > sunny & warm > wet/cloudy and warm

Nahhh... you want a cold and wet summer just for the stats.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nahhh... you want a cold and wet summer just for the stats.

 

Ok.   :lol:

 

I understand wanting to write off the opinion of someone else just because it is different than yours. It is a human tendency we all could work on. The fact that I think a cool/wet summer scattered in there every 5-6 years would be genuinely nice is extremely offensive to you, so you need to categorize it as pointless stat chasing to make yourself feel better. :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ok. :lol:

 

I understand wanting to write off the opinion of someone else just because it is different than yours. It is a human tendency we all could work on. The fact that I think a cool/wet summer scattered in there every 5-6 years would be genuinely nice is extremely offensive to you, so you need to categorize it as pointless stat chasing to make yourself feel better. :)

 

 

Whatever.   

 

Its all about cold stats for you.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Whatever.   

 

Its all about cold stats for you.    

 

Someone's punchy today!

 

Sorry man. While I like tracking stats, the enjoyment I get from actual cool weather trumps any type of stat chasing. I know it's a tough one to swallow, but hopefully someday you will be able to accept the opinions of others and move on. Perhaps you will get better at it with age. :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah, April 1926 was ridiculous. Average temperature of 60 degrees downtown.

 

2004's record warm April (56.3 F) wouldn't be tough to beat for PDX, though.

 

Speaking of stats, it's too bad they took downtown Portland numbers off of this chart:

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/pdxclimate/pg43.pdf

They still have them, there's just no link to it anymore. Somebody probably screwed up.

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/pdxclimate/pg46.pdf 

 

April 1926 is almost certainly out of reach.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yesterday was interesting. Multiple t'storms cells in Klamath County in the afternoon (t'storm coverage on radar was AMAZING for early April standards). We went to go shopping around 2pm with just some distant cumulus buildups in a few directions and solid sunshine. Left the store an hour later to see dark bases covering most of the north and NE skies (slowly coming our way from the NE). I heard a couple rumbles. Eventually the storm that was supposed to hit K-Falls collapsed but there were what looked like very great thunderstorms in the SE corner of Klamath County that passed through Bonanza and Malin with potential severe sized hail. Obviously nothing reported and there likely were no spotters out that way but the sky was pretty ominous towards the east and radar indicated a strong hail core on a few frames.

 

Even though we got sort of screwed, the overall day looked like a day in July or August, except the only thing different was it was 73 for a high and not 85 as it would have been in these kinds of widespread convective events. Radar-wise, yesterday performed a lot better than I would have expected, considering how early it is in the year.

 

It was still nice seeing some cloud-ground strikes in the distance while having some pizza and red wine (oh did I mention I love having both storms and booze? They go great together.  B) )

  • Like 1

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just a half hour ago here to my west. Decent structure but one of the shortest lasting and weakest storms on the radar today. While it lasted there was thunder every minute or so. It did build pretty quickly so I'll give it credit for giving my camera a show. ;)

 

http://i67.tinypic.com/1tvj89.jpg

 

http://i64.tinypic.com/2rxk5sh.jpg

  • Like 2

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Now storm(s) approaching me from the NE. Hearing thunder now. Looks more organized than the other one.

 

http://i68.tinypic.com/15frn6o.jpg

  • Like 1

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I had some storms on top of me. Literally they "popped up" on top out of no where a little bit ago, and now they're gone. I got some video and will go through that tonight. (after my "buzz" is over ;) )

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I had some storms on top of me. Literally they "popped up" on top out of no where a little bit ago, and now they're gone. I got some video and will go through that tonight. (after my "buzz" is over ;) )

There has been a lot of action over southern Oregon the last two evenings. Almost reminds me of an early summer type of pattern, with a persistent marine layer up this way.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

There has been a lot of action over southern Oregon the last two evenings. Almost reminds me of an early summer type of pattern, with a persistent marine layer up this way.

 

I'm more than a month ahead of my average FIRST t'storm day of a year. This is my 4th t'storm day of 2016. 3rd warm core one.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Flew home from Boise on Saturday evening and here are a couple of phone photos.  I've been traveling for work a lot, but each time it has been cloudy so not many views.  This time was different.

 

Nice cloudy structure over NE Oregon.

 

and a good view of Mt. Hood.

 

 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

My videos are here.

 

 

  • Like 3

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I understand. Losing can be tough on morale.

Exactly. Weather is an emotional rollercoaster. I may in fact need to take a break from posting for a few weeks to find myself.

 

I just can't understand how we had a day in the 85-90 range when our most prolific forecaster said there was no way it could happen? What the hell is going on???

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Euro shows things getting a little ridiculous again Sunday/Monday. April warm events seem to come in bunches, so this wouldn't surprise me.

 

 

Some pretty chilly days this week before that, though. Certainly chillier than anything in 1926 (after the first few days).

 

Just looked at the records for Centralia from that month...just unbelievable. 

 

- 2 separate 92+ events

- 8 80+ days

- 16 70+ days

 

Reads like a warmish June. Truly one of the most anomalous months in PNW history.

A forum for the end of the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Exactly. Weather is an emotional rollercoaster. I may in fact need to take a break from posting for a few weeks to find myself.

 

I just can't understand how we had a day in the 85-90 range when our most prolific forecaster said there was no way it could happen? What the hell is going on???

I said 80-85 for PDX. The two warmest days were 80-85 at PDX. Nailed it!
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Some pretty chilly days this week before that, though. Certainly chillier than anything in 1926 (after the first few days).

 

Just looked at the records for Centralia from that month...just unbelievable.

 

- 2 separate 92+ events

- 8 80+ days

- 16 70+ days

 

Reads like a warmish June. Truly one of the most anomalous months in PNW history.

Yeah, no doubt that was a crazy month.

 

Right up there with recent off the charts warm months like June 2015, Octobers 2014/2015, etc.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Similar, except April 1926 was also punctuated by incredible individual warm events, not just overall record warmth.

The warm spell at the beginning of October 2014 was pretty crazy. We had one of the latest 80s on record in October 2015 as well. Then there was some pretty wild the end of last June.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The warm spell at the beginning of October 2014 was pretty crazy. We had one of the latest 80s on record in October 2015 as well. Then there was some pretty wild s**t the end of last June.

 

Nothing close to 1926. Three separate events that produced widespread temps near or above all-time records for warmth that early in the season, and two that set widespread monthly temp records - the second one beating the first in some cases.

 

I don't believe any monthly temp records (as in, warmest high temp on record for that month) were set in the recent record warm months. As you put it yourself recently, it was sustained, dull warmth that caused those record warm months.

 

McMinnville put up perhaps the most impressive numbers in 1926:

 

95 on 4/14, 95 again on 4/26, and then 99 on 4/27.

 

Could be off, but their other records around that time period seem solid, and they are certainly in one of the better spots for maximizing compressional heating.

  • Like 1

A forum for the end of the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Storms coming up from the south now. I see heavy precip curtains in NoCal around the border.

 

This isn't April. It's July. We are being fed lies by the Guvmint that its still April. ;)

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Response I would expect from someone who was just an eyelash away from predicting three consecutive 80s. ;)

I was closer than you on the max temps for the interesting part of the event. I don't think I'd toot my horn too loudly in that case, but you may indeed be in a position where you need to wring out as much as you can from this. You did good. You can ride this wave all the way to the next nino.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I was closer than you on the max temps for the interesting part of the event. I don't think I'd toot my horn too loudly in that case, but you may indeed be in a position where you need to wring out as much as you can from this. You did good. You can ride this wave all the way to the next nino.

 

The hilarious thing about this is that Jesse came in 1st out of 2 contestants. He had a 50% shot of winning, all things being equal.

 

Of course, his glorious victory was over you, so he feels a much greater sense of accomplishment than is warranted.  -_-

A forum for the end of the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...