April 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

I was closer than you on the max temps for the interesting part of the event. I don't think I'd toot my horn too loudly in that case, but you may indeed be in a position where you need to wring out as much as you can from this. You did good. You can ride this wave all the way to the next nino.

Numbers is numbers. I realize I'm fairly disliked here, so people will try to downplay any perceived "victory" on my part. That's ok though. I would be happy to participate in any other contest anytime.

[Deweydog]

The hilarious thing about this is that Jesse came in 1st out of 2 contestants. He had a 50% shot of winning, all things being equal.

 

Of course, his glorious victory was over you, so he feels a much greater sense of accomplishment than is warranted.

I've been getting calls all day about the movie rights for the whole thing. The working title is "Mighty Ducks 7: There's Just No Way!"

[Timmy Supercell]

Now there's a fairly large area of convection west of the cascades in the Rogue Valley. Now a couple more cells moving along the cascades. Perhaps I'll get a late evening rumbler or two like on the 3rd. This afternoon so far hasn't panned out.

[TT-SEA]

The hilarious thing about this is that Jesse came in 1st out of 2 contestants. He had a 50% shot of winning, all things being equal.

 

Of course, his glorious victory was over you, so he feels a much greater sense of accomplishment than is warranted. 

 

But he beat Matt and his RAGING warm bias.   Point proven!

[Jesse]

But he beat Matt and his RAGING warm bias. Point proven!

At least someone gets it!

[DareDuck]

Now there's a fairly large area of convection west of the cascades in the Rogue Valley. Now a couple more cells moving along the cascades. Perhaps I'll get a late evening rumbler or two like on the 3rd. This afternoon so far hasn't panned out.

Was hoping some storms would make it a little farther north. Maybe later in the week. Still nice to see some cumulus build up, just another sign of spring here.

[Jesse]

Accuweather is out to 90 days. Its fun to look at.

[Deweydog]

At least someone gets it!

Mark and I have a lot to learn.

[Phil]

Accuweather is out to 90 days. Its fun to look at.

Just glanced at it, and it's pretty lol-worthy. They're forecasting the coldest June on record here by 8 degrees. I'm rooting for it despite the unlikelihood that it'll be anything close to accurate.

[Jesse]

Mark and I have a lot to learn.

The prospect of warm weather makes some people pretty giddy. Doesn't make you a bad all around forecaster, just human.

[Deweydog]

The prospect of warm weather makes some people pretty giddy. Doesn't make you a bad all around forecaster, just human.

Yikes! I've been outed! I enjoy nice weather and other kinds of weather!

[Front Ranger]

Accuweather is out to 90 days. Its fun to look at.

 

3 straight record warm months?

[snow_wizard]

Accuweather is out to 90 days. Its fun to look at.

 

Knowing them they probably change it every day based on the CFS even though it may be the dead opposite from one day to the next.

[snow_wizard]

Nothing close to 1926. Three separate events that produced widespread temps near or above all-time records for warmth that early in the season, and two that set widespread monthly temp records - the second one beating the first in some cases.

 

I don't believe any monthly temp records (as in, warmest high temp on record for that month) were set in the recent record warm months. As you put it yourself recently, it was sustained, dull warmth that caused those record warm months.

 

McMinnville put up perhaps the most impressive numbers in 1926:

 

95 on 4/14, 95 again on 4/26, and then 99 on 4/27.

 

Could be off, but their other records around that time period seem solid, and they are certainly in one of the better spots for maximizing compressional heating.

 

Seattle hit 85 in April 1926.  Amazingly there were two separate periods it got over 80 that month.  The mid 1920s was a pretty bad torch.

[GHweatherChris]

Lately I have noticed Mark Nelsen post pretty much the same exact info on his KPTV weather blog within a day or sooner that Cliff Mass posts on his.

 

Weird.

[Front Ranger]

Seattle hit 85 in April 1926.  Amazingly there were two separate periods it got over 80 that month.  The mid 1920s was a pretty bad torch.

 

Another very impressive April heat event from that general time period was 1934. Four straight 80+ days in Landsburg, including the monthly record of 88 on the 19th.

 

Clearbrook also hit their monthly record (86) with the 1934 event, and so did Kent (88). The University of WA also set their monthly record with 88 in 1934.

 

Definitely the single greatest April heatwave on record for the Puget Sound region.

[snow_wizard]

Another very impressive April heat event from that general time period was 1934. Four straight 80+ days in Landsburg, including the monthly record of 88 on the 19th.

 

Clearbrook also hit their monthly record (86) with the 1934 event, and so did Kent (88). The University of WA also set their monthly record with 88 in 1934.

 

Definitely the single greatest April heatwave on record for the Puget Sound region.

 

Goes to show that extreme April warmth isn't necessarily a bad thing for cold winter fans.  A lot of good things happened a bit down the road from those events.  It is reassuring to know we have had horrible torches in the past and they always end.

[Jesse]

Yikes! I've been outed! I enjoy nice weather and other kinds of weather!

Nice weather AND all of the lesser, not-nice varieties? Quite charitable of you.

[BLI snowman]

Speaking of impressive Aprils, I always kind of overlook how gross April 1893 was. Portland had just two days the entire month that got over 56. High of 62 for the month. Fun times.

[Deweydog]

Nice weather AND all of the lesser, not-nice varieties? Quite charitable of you.

There isn't much weather I dislike, much to your dislike I imagine. It's the lack of weather I mainly dislike from time to time.

[Jesse]

Speaking of impressive Aprils, I always kind of overlook how gross April 1893 was. Portland had just two days the entire month that got over 56. High of 62 for the month. Fun times.

Sounds amazing. Was surrounded by cold, snowy winters too.

[BLI snowman]

Sounds amazing. Was surrounded by cold, snowy winters too.

 

40s and low 50s with light rain almost every day. Probably was great for the mountains at least.

 

There's really almost no scenario where I like April's weather. Warm and fairly dry is probably as good as it gets, but even then thermal troughs and extended ridges are rare and warm core thunderstorm season generally hasn't kicked off yet. Too late for consequential snow or Pacific storms, too. Just bland and soul sucking stuff. Truly a month that needs to be curb stomped into oblivion. 

[James Jones]

40s and low 50s with light rain almost every day. Probably was great for the mountains at least.

 

There's really almost no scenario where I like April's weather. Warm and fairly dry is probably as good as it gets, but even then thermal troughs and extended ridges are rare and warm core thunderstorm season generally hasn't kicked off yet. Too late for consequential snow or Pacific storms, too. Just bland and soul sucking stuff. Truly a month that needs to be curb stomped into oblivion. 

April 1936 was probably about as interesting as April gets. Portland had a 37/31 day with a 5" snowstorm on the 1st of the month and then had a long stretch of warm and sunny midmonth.

[Phil]

Year 1988 has been showing up frequently on the CPC supernsemble D+11 analog suite. Both years had the dominating IO forcing at this time, so it's not surprising to see.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_00gfs814.gif

[snow_wizard]

Speaking of impressive Aprils, I always kind of overlook how gross April 1893 was. Portland had just two days the entire month that got over 56. High of 62 for the month. Fun times.

 

I think 1951 would have been good.  Tons of sunshine and many unseasonably cold nights in the outlying areas.  Many areas dropped into the low 20s fairly late in the month with a large number of freezing low temps.

[Tyler Mode]

Tim how's the lake doing in Wisconsin??

[TT-SEA]

Tim how's the lake doing in Wisconsin??

 

Opened up yesterday... did you see the post on fb when I liked it?

 

[TT-SEA]

SSTA update...

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.4.11.2016.gif

[Tyler Mode]

Opened up yesterday... did you see the post on fb when I liked it?

 

Nope sorry, I didn't even see your first post from April 1st until today.  I like tracking that kind of stuff!

[TT-SEA]

Nope sorry, I didn't even see your first post from April 1st until today.  I like tracking that kind of stuff!

 

 

Its been crazy cold and snowy there so far this month but its definitely going to be warming up this week.   

[TT-SEA]

Seeing some sun now... I wonder if that band of rain that all the models show late this afternoon will have some convection?

 

12Z GFS and 12Z Canadian look awesome for the weekend.   There has been some model wavering on how far offshore the rain would be this weekend... hope this trend holds.

[Phil]

Relative to a 1955-2012 baseline average. Credit for graphics goes to Andrew (Twitter handle @recretos, highly recommend following him). His graphical work is both physically descriptive and perceptually accurate.

 

Water temperature anomalies at 20m depth using UKMO boundary init:

 

 

Water temperature anomalies at 50m depth using UKMO init:

 

 

Water temperature anomalies at 25m depth using CFS boundary init:

 

 

Water temperature anomalies at 55m depth using CFS boundary init:

 

[Jesse]

Phil, what is it inside of you that makes you think "Hey, you know what sounds good this morning? Posting a bunch of maps and jargon on the the PNW regional thread with absolutely no explanation as to how it pertains to said region."

[TT-SEA]

Phil, what is it inside of you that makes you think "Hey, you know what sounds good this morning? Posting a bunch of maps and jargon on the the PNW regional thread with absolutely no explanation as to how it pertains to said region."

 

 

I think he is showing the cold water that is lurking below the surface.  

[Phil]

Phil, what is it inside of you that makes you think "Hey, you know what sounds good this morning? Posting a bunch of maps and jargon on the the PNW regional thread with absolutely no explanation as to how it pertains to said region."

Honestly thought I was fairly straightforward this time.

 

As you're well aware, the ocean-atmosphere relationship(s) play an important role in every region's weather/climate. I kind of wanted to leave the importance of subsurface temperatures open to interpretation. These processes work differently in the tropics vs the mid-latitudes/poles, and as things unfold over the next several months/years, people will have the opportunity to observe this first-hand.

 

If you want my take..in the equatorial regions, these maps demonstrate the formation and development of ENSO from a different perspective.

 

Poleward, the subsurface anomalies reflect the dominant/low-freq circulation(s) over the last several years, and suggest the NPAC/PDO will take a considerable amount of time to flip negative in response to the upcoming shift in tropical forcing/circulation.

 

Is that any better?

[Jesse]

Honestly thought I was fairly straightforward this time. As you're well aware, the ocean-atmosphere relationship(s) play an important role in every region's weather/climate. I kind of wanted to leave the importance of subsurface temperatures open to interpretation.

 

If you want my take..in the equatorial regions, these maps demonstrate the formation and development of ENSO from a different perspective.

 

Poleward, the subsurface anomalies reflect the dominant/low-freq circulation(s) over the last several years, and suggest the NPAC/PDO will take a considerable amount of time to flip negative in response to the upcoming shift in tropical forcing/circulation.

 

Is that any better?

 

A little better. Sorry, not trying to bust your balls but that is the kind of thing a lot of people seem to have an issue with you doing. Just dumping maps, etc on the regional thread. The whole post would probably have been a better fit for the Nino thread.

[Phil]

A little better. Sorry, not trying to bust your balls but that is the kind of thing a lot of people seem to have an issue with you doing. Just dumping maps, etc on the regional thread. The whole post would probably have been a better fit for the Nino thread.

Understood. I thought about posting it there, wasn't I sure it fit considering the PDO/NPAC is usually discussed in here. Going forward, I'll make posts of this nature either in the ENSO thread or in the long range forum.

[Deweydog]

Speaking of SST's, March PDO comes in at 2.40.  Second highest March reading behind 1941's 2.41.  

[James Jones]

Speaking of SST's, March PDO comes in at 2.40.  Second highest March reading behind 1941's 2.41.  

That year had a massive heatwave in mid July... and then a very chilly September. Analog?????????

[TT-SEA]

That year had a massive heatwave in mid July... and then a very chilly September. Analog?????????

 

 

Not a chance unless we are staying with a strong Nino all year.